Prognostikeggers 2012 - Week 1: Brewers @ Braves

When Randy Wolf's next start is broken down to a single number, how good will it look? How good do you think it will be?

We're almost done with week 1, and the excitement continues. MichaelE1 has a slight lead entering the final series of the week. Slightly behind him is steaksandwiches, icecreamman, and Rendezvous. Another 13 people are within 10 points, and it's still possible for others to make a big comeback in the last series. Even if you can't make a comeback this week, there's still plenty of time left this season.

As I've been looking through the predictions, I notice that there are still a few people who are having trouble with predictions. I thought it would help to go through the predictions from the last series and let you know my reasoning on how I judged each prediction that did occur during the game. Note that I'm still mainly using last season's stats to judge the predictions, but as the season progresses, I will change over to the current season. There's a lot to talk about, so it's all below the jump. Check it out and ask any questions you have.

Extra Prediction for the Series: Turner Field has been known as a pitcher's park. How will it affect the Brewers pitchers? For this series, you are going to predict how well they will pitch based on a stat known as game score. For an explanation on game score, look here. If your prediction is within 10 of the actual game score, you will get 1 point. If your prediction is within 5, you will get 2 points. If you prediction is exact, you will get 3 points.

To help you out, here's the game score for each starter's last start:

Randy Wolf: 43
Shaun Marcum: 56
Chris Narveson: 47
Yovani Gallardo: 67
Zack Greinke: 15

Entry Forms

Click here to enter your predictions for 4/13
Predictions lock at 6:35 PM CDT
Click here to view all predictions for 4/13

Click here to enter your predictions for 4/14
Predictions lock at 6:10 PM CDT
Click here to view all predictions for 4/14

Click here to enter your predictions for 4/15
Predictions lock at 12:35 PM CDT
Click here to view all predictions for 4/15

Overall Standings (Regular Season)

Week 1 Standings

Scoring Summary

April 9 Scoring

Attendance 38136 7 Correct @ 2 Points
Runs 7 Runs 6 Correct
Hits 11 Hits 6 Correct
Errors 3 Errors 0 Correct
MVP Mat Gamel 5 Correct
Extra – Game Time 3:22 6 Correct @ 1 Point, 4 Correct @ 2 Points

Bonus Predictions

zzzmanwitz 2 Points Braun has a SB
dmac86 1 Point Ryan Braun will hit a double
MichaelE1 2 Points Weeks HR
Loeffleitroms 1 Point* Ramirez with extra base hit
coachseibel 2 Points Marcum No BBs
steaksandwiches 2 Points Brewers steal at least 2 bases tonight

* - This prediction will not be worth any points in future weeks.

April 10 Scoring

Attendance 37265 11 Correct @ 2 Points
Runs 7 Runs 8 Correct
Hits 7 Hits 2 Correct
Errors 2 Errors 2 Correct
MVP Alex Gonzalez 0 Correct
Extra – Game Time 3:19 9 Correct @ 1 Point, 6 Correct @ 2 Points

Bonus Predictions

gavitron9 2 Points K-Rod gets the save.
sicklebeat 3 Points Lucroy gets a HR
Cecil Cooper's Love Child 2 Points K-Rod gets the save.
Rendezvous 3 Points Maholm plunks two Brewers.

April 11 Scoring

Attendance 34044 9 Correct @ 2 Points
Runs 2 Runs 1 Correct
Hits 5 Hits 2 Correct
Errors 0 Errors 19 Correct
MVP George Kottaras 0 Correct
Extra – Game Time 2:59 8 Correct @ 1 Point, 13 Correct @ 2 Points, 2 Correct @ 3 Points

Bonus Predictions

Loeffleitroms 2 Points Kottaras with extra base hit.
Bezerkers 0 Points Aoki starts.

April 12 Scoring

Attendance 36311 8 Correct @ 2 Points
Runs 0 Runs 0 Correct
Hits 3 Hits 0 Correct
Errors 1 Error 12 Correct
MVP Ryan Braun 6 Correct
Extra – Game Time 2:47 4 Correct @ 1 Point, 12 Correct @ 2 Points

Bonus Predictions

Rabbit915 2 Points Brewers turn 2 Double Plays
dvtpz 0 Points Greinke 5+ Ks.

Bonus Judging Explanations

Ryan Braun has a stolen base - This is a simple one to judge. He stole a base in 30 of the 150 games he played in last season. Right at the 20% threshold, so it's worth two points.

Ryan Braun will hit a double - Similar to the Braun SB prediction. He hit a double in 32 of 150 games last season, above the 20% threshold but below 30%, so it's worth a point.

Rickie Weeks HR - He hit a home run in 20 of 118 games last season. That is below 20%, so it is worth two points.

Aramis Ramirez Extra Base Hit - This is a situation where my generous side will kick in. On the surface, it looks like a decent prediction. However, it's above the 30% threshold based on last season, but not by much. Because it is early in the season and people are still getting adjusted to the game, I give it a point, but also noted in the comments that it won't be good enough for future weeks.

Shaun Marcum No Walks - Another easy one to evaluate. He did it in five starts last season, under the 20% threshold for two points.

Brewers steal at least 2 bases - They stole at least two bases in 23 games last season. It's under the 20% threshold, and is good for two points.

K-Rod gets the save - Another interesting situation. This was for Tuesday's game, and it was a situation where Axford had pitched two days in a row. While K-Rod hadn't made a save as a Brewer, the situation made it more likely. Since it wasn't a guarantee he would get the save (even in a save situation that day), I gave it two points. I reasoned that I would give an "Axford Save" prediction 1 point, and the level of uncertainty for K-Rod getting a save was high enough to make it worth 2 points.

Jonathan Lucroy HR - He hit 10 home runs in around 150 games last season. It's well below the 10% threshhold, so easily worth 3 points.

Paul Maholm two HBP - Last season, he only hit two batters in a game once. That makes it worth three points.

Norichika Aoki starts - I can't give a prediction like this any points. Since the starting lineup is known hours before the game starts, it can't be used as a bonus prediction, even if made a few days before the game actually starts.

Kottaras XBH - In 50 games last season, he had an extra-base hit in 10 of them. Right at 20% for two points.

Brewers turn 2 double plays - It happened in 20 of 162 games last season. It's below the 20% threshold, and is worth two points.

Zack Greinke 5+ Ks - This is a prediction that I have talked about multiple times in the past. For any Greinke strikeout predictions to be worth anything, a minimum of 10 strikeouts need to be predicted.

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