Reds 4, Brewers 3: Tonight's Turning Points

1) Drew Stubbs' eighth inning solo home run: -.257 WPA (Video)

The Brewers had bit, scratched and clawed their way back into the game in the top of the eighth but it was all gone with one swing of the bat as Drew Stubbs homered to deep center on the first pitch from John Axford in the bottom of the eighth.

2) Jay Bruce's three run home run in the sixth inning: -.227 WPA (Video)

This was the only blemish against Marco Estrada, who allowed these three runs on five hits and two walks while striking out a career-high 12.

3) Norichika Aoki's eighth inning single: +.225 WPA (Video)

The Brewers tied the game at 3 with this hit, their third of the inning and the game.

4) Corey Hart's eighth inning two-run double: +.141 WPA (Video)

The Brewers made it a one run game with this double that drove home both George Kottaras and Taylor Green. Hart later scored on Aoki's single.

5) Carlos Gomez's ninth inning strikeout: -.094 WPA

The Brewers had a man on in the ninth when Aramis Ramirez walked with one out, but Carlos Gomez was unable to advance the runner.

The next five:

6) Taylor Green's eighth inning double: +.085 WPA (Video)
7) Rickie Weeks' eighth inning pop out: -.085 WPA
8) Aramis Ramirez's ninth inning walk: +.083 WPA
9) Martin Maldonado's ninth inning strikeout: -.081 WPA
10) Cody Ransom's eighth inning pop out: -.078 WPA

And the win expectancy graph:


Source: FanGraphs

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