Around the Wild Card Race: September 25 Edition

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News, results, and other notes from the NL Wild Card race from September 25, 2012.

News and notes from around the Wild Card race:

Looking back at yesterday's games:

  • It was a rough day for Milwaukee. Marco Estrada got roughed up for seven runs, and Washington cruised after that on route to a 12-2 win. Kyle has the recap if you missed it. (Box Score)
  • Pittsburgh collapse continued after they took another rough loss. Kyle McPherson allowed four runs over 4 1/3 innings, and Ike Davis accounted for five of the six runs as New York routed Pittsburgh 6-2. (Box Score)
  • St. Louis continued their run through the easier part of their remaining schedule. Pete Kozma gave the Cardinals a 3-0 lead, and they used solid pitching from Lance Lynn for a 6-1 win. (Box Score)
  • Arizona's offense didn't have much left after their offensive explosion on Sunday. They only managed two runs against the Colorado pitching, and Colorado got four runs off of Arizona to get a 4-2 win. (Box Score)

Here's the updated Wild Card standings:


W L GB Last 10 Streak Elimination #
Atlanta 88 65 - 7-3 W2 -
St. Louis 83 71 - 7-3 W3 -
LA Dodgers 79 74 3.5 5-5 W1 6
Milwaukee 79 74 3.5 7-3 L1 6
Arizona 77 76 5.5 6-4 L1 4
Philadelphia 77 76 5.5 5-5 L2 4
Pittsburgh 75 78 7.5 3-7 L1 2

At this point, there's very little (if any) margin for error left. To put this in perspective, for Los Angeles or Milwaukee to have a chance, St. Louis can play no better than 5-3 the rest of the way. For Arizona or Philadelphia to have a chance, St. Louis has to play at 3-5 or worse. For Pittsburgh to have a chance, St. Louis would have to go 1-7 or worse. Of course, all of those are assuming that the respective team goes undefeated the rest of the way, and that is just to force a tie-breaker game. Los Angeles and Milwaukee both still have a shot, but that deficit may be too big for Arizona, Philadelphia, or Pittsburgh to climb out of. Their playoff chances reflect that, as those three teams have playoff odds under 0.5%.

While Atlanta has held that lead for a while, they haven't officially claimed a playoff spot yet. That will change as soon as tonight, as they will claim a playoff spot with a win or a loss from both Los Angeles and Milwaukee. That spot will not necessarily be the Wild Card spot, since they still have a slight chance at taking the dision.

San Diego was idle yesterday but was eliminated from contention after St. Louis won. Next up for elimination is Pittsburgh, who could be eliminated as early as tonight. For now, Pittsburgh may just want to get back to .500, but that could be tough as they would have to go 6-3 against the Mets, Reds, and Braves to do that.

With the Brewers loss and Cardinals win, the Brewers chances at the postseason took a big hit. Here's the updated odds from CoolStandings.com:

Date Odds
Today (9/24) 7.6%
Yesterday (9/23) 17.5%
One Week Ago (9/17) 8.6%
Two Weeks Ago (9/10) 1.9%
One Month Ago (8/24) 0.1%

There's a full slate of games tonight. Here's what is on tap:

Washington vs. Philadelphia - 6:05 PM CDT
Ross Detwiler (10-6, 3.10 ERA) vs. Cole Hamels (15-6, 3.05 ERA)

Miami vs. Atlanta - 6:10 PM CDT
Nathan Eovaldi (4-12, 4.36 ERA) vs. Kris Medlen (9-1, 1.51 ERA)

Milwaukee vs. Cincinnati - 6:10 PM CDT
Michael Fiers (9-8, 3.38 ERA) vs. Johnny Cueto (18-9, 2.84 ERA)

Pittsburgh vs. NY Mets - 6:10 PM CDT
Wandy Rodriguez (11-13, 3.76 ERA) vs. Collin McHugh (0-2, 3.86 ERA)

St. Louis vs. Houston - 7:05 PM CDT
Jaime Garcia (5-7, 4.25 ERA) vs. Lucas Harrell (10-10, 3.89 ERA)

LA Dodgers vs. San Diego - 9:05 PM CDT
Josh Beckett (6-13, 4.88 ERA) vs. Edinson Volquez (10-11, 4.30 ERA)

Arizona vs. San Francisco - 9:15 PM CDT
Josh Collmenter (4-3, 3.92 ERA) vs. Tim Lincecum (10-14, 4.91 ERA)

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