2013 Brewers ZiPS Projections Are Out

Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

Not surprisingly, they're predicting another big season for Ryan Braun this year.

Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory is the creator of one of baseball's most respected projection systems, ZiPS. His 2013 projections for the Brewers went up at FanGraphs this morning and feature estimates for 31 hitters and 39 pitchers, including free agents that haven't yet found a new home like Shaun Marcum, Francisco Rodriguez and Alex Gonzalez.

Here are some of the highlights from my perspective:

  • Ryan Braun projects to be an MVP candidate again with a .302/.371/.540 batting line that would put him around six Wins Above Replacement.
  • ZiPS likes Rickie Weeks to bounce back with a .252/.344/.433 batting line that's closer to his career norms than the .230/.328/.400 line he posted in 2012.
  • I think we'd also all be happy if the Brewers got the .278/.325/.402 batting line with 26 stolen bases Szymborski is projecting for Jean Segura.
  • The pitching side forecasts a real depth problem in the starting rotation, with Yovani Gallardo projected to pitch 194 innings and Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, Mark Rogers, Chris Narveson and Wily Peralta all near or below 150.
  • There is some reason for optimism with Fiers, though: Szymborski projects him to be worth around three wins above replacement in 2013, which is more than he's expecting from Estrada, Narveson or Rogers.

Head over to FanGraphs for much, much more on the projections.

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