Sometimes we all need the reminder that, while speculating is fun, it's tough to tell if a transaction is the right move until you've had a chance to see how it works out.
A year ago today, for example, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs said the Brewers had made the seventh worst move of the winter by signing Aramis Ramirez to a three-year, $36 million contract. Here's an excerpt from the post:
Ramirez posted a 133 wRC+ last year, and at just $12 million per year, he fit into the Brewers budget. However, he’s a lousy defender who is headed for his age 34 season, was basically replacement level in 2010, and blocked off third base from Taylor Green, who probably could have provided some value at the hot corner for the league minimum and allowed the Brewers to spend their money upgrading at shortstop or at first base.
A year later, the move no longer looks like a mistake. Ramirez hit .300/.360/.540 in his age 34 season as a Brewer, becoming just the second player in franchise history to hit 50 doubles. He also hit 27 home runs, drove in 105 runs and set a career high with nine stolen bases while playing in 149 games and finished ninth in the NL MVP voting.
Ramirez still has two years left on his contract, but if he performs anywhere near this level the Brewers will have gotten a bargain.