FanPost

2013 Baseball Predictions (Presented in Graphical Form)

I always think it's fun at the end of the season to point and laugh at incredible wrongness of the preseason predictions of sports "experts." Of course, all of our predictions end up being wrong, too, but that's the point -- if they're experts, they should at least be less wrong than the rest of us.

The nice part for the experts is that most everyone forgets about their predictions by the end of the year. When last year's predictions came out, I was struck by how uniform everyone's predictions were, so I wanted to keep track of them this year to see if that still held true. So I grabbed all the predictions I could find for all the big baseball sites (190 in all), and threw them together to see what patterns emerged.

I actually found a lot more variety than I expected -- somewhat because there were a ton of non-traditional media, sabermetrics-type people in the sample, but there were also a few on-air-talent type of guys at ESPN and MLB who picked teams like the Phillies and Red Sox.

The raw data is here in this Google Doc, but I put it together into a set of graphs mostly because I'm trying to learn Illustrator and needed a fun project to start off with. (There's also data in the spreadsheet on picks for MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year, I thought just the team picks were enough for this graphic.)

SB Nation has a limit on the size of images you can display, so you can click to embiggen it in a tab. And for the record, seven teams were picked by none of the 190 pundits I found to make the playoffs: Astros, Cubs, Marlins, Mets, Pirates, Rockies, Twins. The Brewers just barely missed that list, but were the only other team not to get picked by anyone to win their division.

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