Today's Matchup: Milwaukee (Estrada) vs. St. Louis (Garcia)

Mike McGinnis

Estrada has had troubles with home runs while Garcia has been excellent this season.

Marco Estrada (2-1, 4.58 ERA, 5.43 FIP) has had exactly one problem holding him back this season. In six starts this season, he has already allowed ten home runs. His last outing against the Pirates was his worst yet--he allowed three long balls to Pittsburgh. Fourteen of eighteen earned runs on Marco Estrada this season have scored on home runs.

If not for that, Estrada looks as good as he was last season. He still has impeccable control (1.78 BB/9) coupled with god strikeout numbers (8.66 K/9). Estrada just has a tendency to hang a pitch every now and then.

Estrada started against the Cardinals earlier this season. During that game he pitched six innings and allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out seven. Estrada has faced three Cardinals hitters at least ten times. Here is how they fared:

Player PA Line
Jon Jay 14 .364/.500/.455
Yadier Molina 14 .500/.500/.786
Matt Holliday 13 .500/.538/.667

Unlike Estrada, Cardinals starter Jamie Garcia (3-1, 2.50 ERA, 3.17 FIP) has been excellent at limiting home runs. In his six starts this season, he has allowed just two home runs and none in his last four games. In his last outing, Garcia went eight innings while giving up one run against the Reds. Garcia started against the Brewers earlier this season and pitched well, throwing seven shutout innings. He has only had one bad start this year. Against the Phillies, he lasted just 3.2 innings and allowed eight runs, four of which were earned.

Garcia throws four pitches primarily: An 88 MPH two seam fastball (29% pitch selection), an 89 MPH four seamer (21%), an 85 MPH slider (18%), and an 82 MPH changeup (16%).

Garcia has faced seven Brewers hitters ten times or more. Here is how they have fared:

Player PA Line
Ryan Braun 37 .243/.243/.459
Rickie Weeks 34 .222/.382/.407
Carlos Gomez 26 .269/.269/.385
Jonathan Lucroy 26 .308/.308/.346
Aramis Ramirez 16 .267/.313/.333
Yuniesky Betancourt 13 .231/.231/.462
Alex Gonzalez 10 .100/.100/.400

Lineups:

In the bullpen:

  • Burke Badenhop pitched one inning (17 pitches) yesterday.
  • Jim Henderson pitched one inning (24 pitches) yesterday.
  • Tom Gorzelanny pitched one inning (15 pitches) yesterday.
  • Brandon Kintzler pitched two innings (40 pitches) Friday.
  • John Axford pitched one inning (18 pitches) Friday.
  • Mike Gonzalez pitched one inning (13 pitches) Friday.
  • Alfredo Figaro pitched 2.2 innings (27 pitches) Thursday.
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