The Mets are currently 28-35. They should probably be better than that on paper as they've scored about as many runs as they've allowed. Their main problem is scoring runs. They're tied with the Pirates for the 10th lowest mark with 4 RS/G. (Sidenote: Holy suck Padres 3.10 RS/G!!!). They have a few competent or semi competent bats. David Wright is better than his 100 wRC+. I'm buying Daniel Murphy's 121 wRC+, or at the very least I don't think it's so out of line that he can keep it up for a while. Lucas Duda's 119 wRC+ is also reasonable for him. Mets are probably regretting the contract they gave to Curtis Granderson right about now.
Their pitching has been reasonable giving up 4.08 runs per game, which is right behind the Brewers with 3.98. At different points in the season the Mets bullpen has been home to a metric cuss ton of suck. However, the current squad seems pretty reliable. The top three are Carlos Torres, Jeurys Familia, and Jenrry Mejia. I like each one of those guys. After that it gets hard to tell because of limited sample size.
Scott Rice is their LOOGY and if he enters the game tell your friends you think whoever is batting will walk or get a hit and there's a pretty damn good chance you'll look pretty smart. Dude's rocking an 18.2 BB% to go along with a 1.98 WHIP. It's a small sample though as he's pitched a total of 13.2 innings in 32 appearances. Vic Black looks serviceable if not good. Former Brewer alert: Dana Eveland has CRUSHED the competition...in the 3 innings he's pitched this year. I have a feeling the Brewers will crush him is he pitches, being a lefty and all. By "all" I mean historically he's kind of been not good at all.
I have to tell you, I'm impressed with Matsuzaka. Not because he's pitching well. He isn't. I'm impressed that he's still pitching in the majors at all. He currently has a .153 BAA but that's probably partly because he's mostly come out of the bullpen this year. I'd also credit his 17.1 BB% since it's hard to work that BAA up when he's gifting you first base. He does throw a multitude of pitches, so there's a chance he can keep batters off balance. I could see how some of the Brewers' more hyper aggressive batters might succumb to that. Also, he has a 51.4% first strike rate this year. That's about as extreme a coin flip as I've ever seen. I think at a certain point we have to accept that certain guys are never going to learn any patience at the plate, but this is a night where I'd sit them down and tell them to take a couple of pitches the first time up.
Of note for the Brewers: I still love Marco Estrada. Also, the Mets don't have a whole lot of HR power. Granderson and Duda have hit 8 each but then Daniel Murphy, David Wright, and Chris Young are tied for next highest with 4 whole home runs a piece. Citi Field is a pitcher's park so I think we see a good game from Estrada tonight.
Wednesday June 10th, 6:10 pm CT: Wily Peralta vs Jacob DeGrom
DeGrom seems like he could be a solid starter for the Mets. He came into the season 7th on FanGraphs' Mets top prospect list. He has a fastball that sits around 93 mph and compliments it with a solid mix of slider and changeup with the occasional curveball. It's hard to gauge his current talent level because he's only pitched 31 innings at the major league level. Seems like he's had some home run issues. If he makes mistake pitches against the Brewers that might continue.
Of note for the Brewers: Wily Peralta is coming of his two worst starts of the season. I don't think he's going for 3 in a row.
Thursday June 11th, 6:10 pm CT: Kyle Lohse vs Jon Niese
I like Jon Niese. I think he gets underrated a lot because he sits in the high 80s/low 90s with his fastball, but as Brewers fans we know that a big time fastball isn't necessary if you've got command. Niese also has a cutter and a curve, with a change up in his back pocket that isn't very good.
Of note for the Brewers: Kyle Lohse's last two starts were the best of the year followed by the worst of the year. I actually think this could be quite a fun pitchers' duel. I think Lohse mixes his pitches better than Niese and the Brewers offense is better than the Mets so I think we win which is where the fun part comes in.
The offense is starting to look how I thought it would before the season started. In the last 18 games, the Brewers have failed to score 4 or more runs only 3 times. I'm always hesitant to predict a sweep and I think the Brewers are facing two of the Mets better pitchers. I'll play it safe and say they take two out of three.
Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs