FanPost

The Cost of Doing Business

At the average baseball game there are several thousand seats that aren't filled. Sometimes it's deliberate, like the center field bleachers at parks that aren't seated because having an empty backdrop helps the batter pick up pitches better coming out of the pitcher's hand. Personally, I like to think of that section as the 'elephant perch.' You see, there is an enormous elephant in the room in every baseball conversation that the powers that be don't like to talk about, and that's the correlation between the amount of money teams spend and their performance on the field.

So I imagine that huge elephant sitting there in the stands in center field (or pretty much anywhere he wants at a Rays game) either being somewhat pleased or miffed at the club's ability to turn giant wads of cash into victories. If you look at a chart showing the amount of money each team paid for their wins, you see a clear trend. Basically your first 50 wins are free of charge, and everything after that costs you.

The Kansas City Royals are pretty much in the middle of the baseball production engine. Much in the same way that a college student on break often does little else than turn beer into urine, the Royals spent an average amount of dad's money to create six months of mediocrity. Their 81-81 finish at a cost of $145M was exceptionally unremarkable.

The things that are remarkable are those teams that either spend more or less money than you would expect for their results. First, the data - simple chart below, using Spotrac's data:

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So on the left axis you can see the amount of money that teams lit on fire, and moving left to right you can see how many times they beat the Twins (et al). The two groups that are the most interesting to me are the outliers on the top and bottom. I thought I would look at each of them and try to draw some quick conclusions about them.

Elated Elephants

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These guys executed their plan and paid peanuts for it.

Cleveland Indians - 94 wins, $114M

The Indians are the cream of the fiscal crop this season, and they got the production they wanted despite losing one of their key players for almost the entire season (Michael Brantley). How did they do it? Trades. Jason Kipnis is their longest commitment and he was a home-grown player, but the other seven guys who they've committed to as their core were all acquired in trades. Andrew Miller was the latest acquisition and they gave up a slew of talent to get him, but he's locked down for the next two years. Add in Kluber, Brantley, Gomes and Carrasco and you have a group that provides production at a solid price. Their highest paid player was Coco Crisp, and his option failed to vest this season so they're off the hook for his $13M next year. There's no guarantee they'll get the same production in 2017 from their guys, but they might actually improve without increasing payroll.

Miami Marlins - 79 wins, $80M

I had no idea the Miami payroll was that small. There was a point during the season that the Marlins looked like they could squeeze into the playoffs ahead of the Mets, but that opportunity vanished with a Giancarlo Stanton injury, and then the tragic death of Jose Fernandez. They finished 22-34 after the deadline, and while hindsight tells us that misfortune doomed them, it's surprising that they didn't take on some payroll to improve their chances down the stretch. Well, it would be surprising if their owner wasn't Jeffrey Loria I guess. Their commitment to Dee Gordon is something to keep an eye on, with $43M promised over the next 4 years (plus a vesting option) to a player with a career .689 OPS and PED issues. Barry Bonds is gone because Mattingly said "him or me", and Martin Prado is gone as a free agent. Now the team is even more binary, with $30M spent on Stanton and new #1 starter Wei-Yin Chen, and nobody else making any real money at all. It looks rather tragic in Miami right now. This doesn't say "affordable" as much as it says "cheap."

Milwaukee Brewers - 73 wins, $75M

The Brewers slashed payroll again, and added a lot of talent. Most of that talent won't be arriving in the bigs until 2018, so there are a lot of losses ahead. With the rumors that the Brewers might move Braun in the offseason the payroll could drop another $20M, and it's a kind thing to do for Braun if he'd like to see the playoffs again before he retires. The other sizable contract is Matt Garza, who actually isn't that expensive at $12.5M if he pitches like the reliable starter he was promised to be. But after that the costs are grass seed, pine tar, the grounds crew, and the other 38 guys on the roster. Wily Peralta is the next highest paid Brewer at $2.8M, then Chris Carter at $2.5M. Both players are in arbitration, and it will be Carter who sees his paycheck go up the most. But there's a lot of growth on this team in their roster talent, and in their minor league talent, and their obligations are very low. They will be very interesting to watch, especially when they become competitive enough to delve back into the free agent market in a couple of years.

Tampa Bay Rays - 68 wins, $71M

The difference between the Rays and the Brewers is more than just 5 wins and $4M. The Brewers have a plan and hope, and the Rays have Evan Longoria. They also have Chris Archer, who should fire his agent, and a slew of cheap guys who won't bring a playoff series to Tampa for the foreseeable future. They're also in the wrong division to try and get there, with clubs like the Yankees and Red Sox who can write off more salary then they spend every year and slump their way to 85 wins. The one thing the Rays have going for them is their track record of identifying and developing talent, and making shrewd decisions (Archer was acquired from the Cubs in the Matt Garza trade). As long as that strength continues and they don't get desperate and dip into free agency, they could offer up a generic-priced contender again in the future some day. Not some day soon, however. In the mean time the elephant is pleased that costs are extremely low for rubbing the magic lamp and wishing up the next round of prospects.

Pissed-off Pachyderms

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These guys watched their money being wasted.

Los Angeles Angels - 74 wins, $180.9M

Nobody flushed money down the drain like the Angels did this season. There were only five clubs that spent more than the Angels, and all of them had winning records. Despite all of the measures and metrics, observation and analysis, strategy and scheming, the #1 predictor for reaching the postseason is still how much money you spent. So if you spend this much money and you only win one more game than the Brewers, you're doing something very wrong. Unfortunately for Anaheim fans there are a lot of things being done wrong with the Angels lately. Mike Trout is the big ticket item on the roster, and he earns his money. He earns everyone's money, really. As long as you're going to be pathetic you need some reason to visit the ballpark, and he's it. He's just finished his fifth full season, and it's very likely that he won't break his streak of never finishing lower than 2nd in the MVP balloting. So his significant salary (which will peak at $34M/year) is actually money well spent. What isn't so valuable is the contract to pay Albert Pujols nearly as much money ($25M/year and climbing, through 2012/age 41). Pujols still hits 30 HRs, but his contact rate is low and he's forgotten how to draw walks. The Angels do have a lot of money coming off the books this season ($40M for Jered Weaver and C.J.Wilson) , but their middle-range players are also making more than you'd expect. Andrelton Simmons, Ricky Nolasco, Huston Street, Yunel Escobar, and Garrett Richards are all getting paid like the ensemble cast of a playoff team, but the Angels could do without any of them and not see much difference in their record. I'm not sure how the Angels are going to rebuild this team, but it might be impossible without moving Trout (which everyone says is insane, so it must be.)

New York Yankees - 84 wins, $227M

Considering the contracts they were loaded down with, the age of their talent, and the subdues expectations for a club who no longer had the platinum-quality stars of years past (Jeter, Mariano), getting close to the playoffs was a pretty nifty result. The bad news is you don't want to be the second-most expensive team in baseball and still miss the playoffs. The good news is that the future is bright. The only significant piece of salary they're shedding is the $23.5M they were paying Mark Teixeira, because C.C.Sabathia's $25M option vested for 2017. Jacoby Ellsbury is owed a sick amount of money, and I don't see how he'll ever be worth it. Masahiro Tanaka might earn the $22M paycheck he'll get through 2020, but it's less likely that Brian McCann deserves his $17M. The good news isn't even with the rest of their over-priced middle tier, it's in the minors - as a result of dumping their bullpen for prospects the Yankees actually have the ability to grow some of their own talent. Add in the willingness to dive into the market at any time for any talent in play (Bryce Harper?) and you've got a rich man's rebuild. It's like a poor man's rebuild, expect you pay three times as much and you never lose 82 games.

Detroit Tigers - 86 wins, $206M

The Tigers aren't exactly a penny-pinching franchise, but I can't imagine that they're too pleased by watching the Indians win the division by a large margin with half the payroll. The reason they aren't winning is because of their pitching staff. I mean, it can't be the lineup. They have a ridiculous offense. And that's not a terribly bad idea in the American League, because you don't need to have the same kind of bench as you do in the NL, you can survive on 10 guys and sink the rest into a deep bullpen if you really wanted to. So naturally with all those .800 OPS guys they.. scored fewer runs than the Diamondbacks? Yep. They had the 4th best OPS, but were 11th in runs scored, and they've got $50M committed to paying Miguel Cabrera and Justin Upton together through 2021. It's worse on the pitching side, squeezing 32 wins out of Justin Verlander, Jordon Zimmerman, and Anibal Sanchez at a cost of $62M/year. Victor Martinez is providing good production for his $18m, but he's doing it out of the DH spot. There's not a lot of things you can really change at this point to make anything better, you've just got to get guys to produce as much as you thought they could. This is the kind of roster construction and mediocre performance that puts manager Brad Ausmus on the hot seat.

Boston Red Sox - 93 wins, $216M

This is probably a non-exceptional amount of money to expect to pay for winning the American League East. And since they did win the division you can't complain too much, even if they did get swept by the bargain basement Cleveland indians. Their costs will go down a little in the offseason due to the retirement of David Ortiz ($16M) and the release of Aaron Hill (part of $12M). They will almost surely pick up the 2017 option for Clay Buchholz ($13.5M) because there's not many good free agent pitching options. Rick Porcello was a good investment at $20M, and Dustin Pedroia is kind of a bargain at $15M, but there's $83M/yr sunk into David Price, Hanley Ramirez, Craig Kimbrel, and Pablo Sandoval for declining (or non-existent) production. Things could go south quickly, and that would be a lot of zeros hanging around their necks. Not that they really care about the cost, obviously. At least they're smarter about it than..

Los Angeles Dodgers - 91 wins, $274M

Nobody spent more than the Dodgers. In fact, the Dodgers spent more than the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates combined. The Dodgers can only ever justify this kind of payroll if they win the World Series, because anything else is strictly an overpay. And they might yet win the Series, but the point is that the Dodgers are so rich they can plan to be irresponsible with money. In 2016 they paid players $61M to just go away, headlined by the dismissal of outfielder Carl Crawford ($20.8M). There aren't a lot of great free agents available next season, but that might not stop them from inflating their payroll. They've shown interest in acquiring Ryan Braun and may trade for others, knowing that it's always an option for them to eat entire contracts if it gives them more talent to finally help Clayton Kershaw win a ring. The Dodgers are operating on an entirely different level than the rest of the league. They're making billions in TV revenue, they have a astronomical market for the team, and they have very little restraint if they see an avenue that will increase performance. Look for the fat Dodgers to get even fatter, to the point that even the Yankees might complain about their habits.