Wild card race: 7/21 update
by roguejim on Jul 21, 2006 12:49 PM CDT
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PrintI thought it would be a good idea to get some perspective on where we are in the wild card race. After seeing the numbers...it's time to trade Carlos.
Right now, we're 46-50, tied with the Stros for 3rd in the division.
Pretending that San Diego, St. Loo, and the Mets all win their divisions, then there are TEN TEAMS vying for that one spot. Ten! (I'm saying "vying" as in within 7 games of the Reds, who would go to the playoffs if the season were to end today.) More on the flip.
(The Marlins are in last for this group of 10, but I'm not writing them off just yet, though I will if they trade Dontrelle. Has anyone noticed that whenever the Marlins are in a fire sale year, they're never as bad as you'd think they'd be? If we played a 3-game series with them now, I'm not sure we'd win the series.)
Anyway, in this group, we're only 4 games out. (If Turnbow remembered how to hold a 1-run lead in the 9th the past few games, we'd be at .500, merely 2 games out.) That hardly seems insurmountable, right? Wellll...
If they continued the pace they're on, the Reds will win wild card with 85 wins.
Here's where it gets dicey: for us to get to 86 wins, we have to go 40-26 the rest of the way.
40-26. That's a .606+ winning percentage, which, by the way, is a higher winning percentage than anyone has in the entire NL. For us to hit that, we would have to pretty much win every series.
So, will Ben and Tomo be able to make up that difference? Maybe...though it's hard to win on a 60% clip when you're last in defense and pitching. And you lose series against the Royals and Pirates. And (as we already mentioned) you take 9th inning leads against teams ahead of you in the wild card chase and you blow them.
So, if the goal for 2006 is the playoffs, I hate to say it, but I don't think we can pull it off. If the goal is a better-than-.500 season, THAT we can do, but if we lose Carlos in the offseason, then all bets are off for a .500 season next year, so whom are we kidding, exactly?
We're progressing nicely as an organization. Let's not do it half-assed, though: say adiós to El Caballo (and any other outfield veterans he can take with him) and keep restocking our system with young guns.
Having said that, I think most people here would agree that we're talented enough now to be a wild card team, something you couldn't have said around these parts for decades. Although I'm advocating trading Carlos, it's only because we squandered that talent up until now, with bad coaching, bad play (take your pick, though Geoff Jenkins and Doug Davis are favorites), and even bad management, for not really having much of a plan when our fragile pitching was hurt.
In short, I think we blew it. Face up to it and trade Carlos and wait until next year, instead of settling for a sandwich pick and a mediocre finish to 2006.
(OK, I'm done.)
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out.
so that leaves with you cinci, arizona and the dodgers.
who do you think will win the wildcard and with how many wins?
Also, cinci is on pace for 84 wins, and i'm quite certain made their club worse with recent trade. A series sweep and a series win here in the next week will have you signing a different tune I bet.
I like our chances still.
Such optimism
In all three cases, my argument has been: we are honestly not as good as we should be. Two months ago, I said we needed to keep him, because we'd be duking it out with the Rats and Cubs for worst teams in the NL. Since then, he hasn't been singled-handedly carrying us as much as in the first third of the season.
As for the wild card chase...
OK, I'm pretty much ruling out Florida, though I still am amazed by them. Sure, they have a fire sale every 4 years, but they sure have a lot of championships for the newest team on the block. I'm not ruling our Houston, not with Clemens, who, let's face it, is better than Sheets despite being twice his age. Philly is probably done. Atlanta --- hell, Atlanta is probably going to WIN the wild card despite being worse than us now.
I think it'll take only 85 wins, which is pathetic. (If the playoffs started now, the Yankees --- who are 17 games over .500 --- would be going home.) So, what's going to carry us to the playoffs?
- Our offense? We're currently 10th (out of 16) in the NL in runs scored. We're looking up at the Pirates. The g-d PIRATES. Sure the homers are nice, but when you're NEXT TO LAST in getting on base (thank you, Cubs!), they're literally and figuratively empty. We're third worst at taking a walk, but LEADING THE NL in strikeouts.
- Our pitching? League-worst, baby. We can play all day: runs, earned runs, ERA.
- Our defense. Go ahead, suggest that our defense --- league-worst in fielding percentage, mind you --- will shore up our problems on offense and defense.
We're making progress, and a .500+ season would be nice. Still, Neddy's been saying all along that the goal isn't a better-than-.500 season, it's been to get in the playoffs. If we can get the pitching we need for the next 4 to 5 years by trading Carlos now...I just don't see what the hold up is.
such pessimism
next 4 to 5 years by trading Carlos now...I just don't see what the hold up is.
The hold up is you can't get major league ready arms for an above average rental outfielder.
To recap: below-average hitting, league-worst defense, league-worst pitching. This does not a 40-26 record make.
Let's pretend it is July 21st, 2005 and the Brewers record is 47-49, think they can finish the season 34-32? Don't you think the team we have now is 6 wins better than last year's team over the same stretch?
Go ahead, suggest that our defense --- league-worst in fielding percentage, mind you --- will shore up our problems on offense and defense.
The defense is bad, though i would never use fielding percentage to prove it.
Our pitching? League-worst, baby.
Based on some horrible outings by guys who are not around, and a horrible start from doug davis who has almost come completely back to form. Pitching is going in the right direction. Not league worst over the next 66 games, i'll put money on that, i'll give you 2-1 odds and you'd still be a fool to take it.
Our offense? We're currently 10th (out of 16) in the NL in runs scored. We're looking up at the Pirates. The g-d PIRATES. Sure the homers are nice, but when you're NEXT TO LAST in getting on base (thank you, Cubs!), they're literally and figuratively empty. We're third worst at taking a walk, but LEADING THE NL in strikeouts.
Of course you are going to be near the top in strikeouts when you are making more outs than everyone else, so what, they don't correlate with wins or runs or anything of offensive value. We are 8th in OPS. Luck has been against us in the first half as well as facing tough pitchers, if anything the offense will improve over the stretch.
I see an improving offense, an improving defense, and an improving pitching staff. I think we are definitely going to finish the season above .500. I don't think it'll be any problem for this club to go 36-30 over the balance of the season.
Those extra 4 wins to get to 86 aren't as unrealistic as you think they are. At the very least wait one week. If I am right and we go 7-2 over our next 9 games we'll be at 53-52 and in great shape for a run.
If they win 5 or fewer over the next 9 games, then i'll rule them out.
hey, we lost 7 straight in may/june and that killed us, aren't we due a 7 game winning streak?
such realism
Well, that could be. I'd like to think we could get SOMETHING pretty good for Mr. Horse, but who knows, maybe not. I don't think it'd have to be major-league ready per se --- after all, on this team, AA is major-league ready if you're a pitcher in May and June --- but I would think it would be better than the compensatory pick. If not, then hell, we might as well keep him, although I'd like to see what out young outfielders are made of before spring training next year.
In a word, no. I don't think the 2006 Brewers can win 40 out of the next 66 games, not when our "talent" got us this far. (And for someone who was calling for 90 wins, this is a painful admission.) If we put last year's second-half team against this year's team right now, I think last year's second half team wins 2 out of 3, losing on the getaway game because they were looking ahead to the 2004 version of the Pirates. Randall Simon, we have not forgotten what you did to our hot dog!
Never? Not even once? You would sooner use a bologna-sandwich eating contests before fielding percentage? Fielding percentage is far from perfect, but hey, it's what we got. But fine, if there's another metric you'd like to use to demonstrate our ineptitude, go ahead.
OK, that's fair --- I think it's unreasonable to expect our pitching in the second half to match our pitching in the first half. Still, even if one were to take your bet, "not in last place" isn't exactly playoff stuff either, and that assumes Sheets can stay off the DL. With the exception of Capuano, though, pretty much every pitcher on the staff has performed less than one might had reasonably expected. Maybe that means we're in for a gangbusters second half, or maybe it means our expectations were misplaced. (There's a reason why Turnbow and Davis were cast off from other teams.) Still, sure, let's say there's reason for optimism.
I wonder about that: considering how many guys we leave stranded in scoring position, I think you can make a case for the productive out (as opposed to the strikeout). Still, true, a strikeout isn't really indicative of anything (other than a general ineptitude). I guess I don't see a big reason to expect better things from the offense, umm, luck and suckier opposing pitching notwithstanding. 8th in OPS is fine --- right smack in the middle in the NL. If we can get our pitching and defense up to 8th in the NL, a vast improvement, then we'll be...8th in the NL. Yippee.
36-30? Yeah, that sounds about right, if we don't trade Mr. Horse and things break well for us. And out starters pitch 9 innings every game. (OK, that's a little much; I take it back.)
I guess, right now, going strictly by record, we're a WORSE team than last year. Sure, we all know we're better than that, or more talented, I guess. But although we're more talented, we're certainly not executing better. Unless we just club a team to death by 10-1, we're probably going to lose.
You're right, though --- maybe the next few series will have me feeling better about our chances. We go 7-2, and I'm back on the Wild Card Bandwagon. Still, right now...if I'm Doug Melvin, I'm entertaining offers.
out
I"ve been a brewers fan since i saw tommy harper hit one in the left field bleachers to beat the white sox. coming home from the dells on family vacation.
To me this team is close, very close to competing for the wild card. But I'd rather get something for Carlos Lee now. Even though I"m sure the market is getting smaller and smaller. I think he would listen to the brewers offer. But I don't think he's really going to consider Milwaukee over Chicago. But who says you couldn't trade him and go after him when he's a free agent. Doug Melvin could be in a no win situation on this one. He has to play it up and keep Lee's value as high as possible. But he also has to be looking at ending up with nothing if we fade and he's got nothing to show for it. I say trade Lee get some prospects and let corey hart finish the season in left field. With Sheets and Ohka coming back. who says we might make a slight run and Corey Hart hits well. Then we've picked up a couple prospects gotten a shot to sign Lee in the off season so he can test free agency. Plus found out if Corey Hart is really a big leaguer. I think the cardinals would love to have Lee in left field. Yes its the same division but you have to look at it and say what's the most we can get for him.
trade lee
With the farm system as strong as it is, an extra first round pick might be more valuable than the aa prospects we'd be looking at for lee at this point.
It's not that strong
Wouldn't that be something?
Get the pick
Sign Lee in the offseason
I'm not saying we SHOULD do that --- it's been discussed many times before that El Caballo won't be living up to the back end of a 4- or 5-year-deal. But it would be cool.
Besides, Corey Hart, Gabe Gross, Tony Gwynn Jr. et al aren't getting any younger.
You know what I'd love to see? I'd love to see Yost run a lineup out there without our veterans. Prince, Rickie, Billy Hall, JJ (if he weren't hobbled), Cruz, Hart, Gross. Heck, even throw Mike Rivera in there. We might get crushed, but I'd love to see that game.
compensatory draft picks
Ack
Pretend I didn't say that
Though I guess it would be still cool if we traded him and signed him after the season, caveats mentioned previously still in play.
good diary
and i just don't see that changing. it's time to trade carlos. maybe it will turn out to be the last major trade that will eventually put us over the top. and that's not to say the brewers would be 'throwing in the towel' for the season and giving up. but we have no pitching, no defense, can't win on the road, and can't hold leads when we do have them.
Depressed
Season after season, we'd lose due to ineptitude and just a lack of overall talent.
This year is the first since I've been a fan where we have actual, playoff-worthy talent.
The fact that we can't execute is depressing. We get good hitting, we lose 8-7 on a blown save. We get good pitching, we whiff 12 times en route to a 2-1 loss. Then we win 12-4 the next game, outscoring the opposition for the series and winning only 1 out of 3.
Part of it is because we're young and gaining experience. But part of it is coaching and management, and I really have no sense of how Yost is progressing as a manager. Would you say he's better than in his first year, or are the players better? If he hasn't improved any, then is he good enough a manager to make it to the playoffs, or is he only good at getting a sucky team to a mediocre one?
I thought about it some more
Still, the more I thought about it, the more the idea went from unlikely to preposterous. If we don't trade Carlos, I can only hope it's because we didn't get any decent offers for him.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
27 | 20 | .574 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
26 | 22 | .541 | 1.5 | Won 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
23 | 24 | .489 | 4 | Won 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 25 | .468 | 5 | Lost 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 28 | .404 | 8 | Lost 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 32 | .319 | 12 | Lost 12 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 6:23 PM CDT)
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