As was mentioned in today's Frosty Mug, the BP C'mon Back Club free ticket promotion has returned so seven fill-ups of eight gallons of gas yields you one free ticket to see the Brewers through the middle of August.

Now I was underemployed and poor for much of the 2009 and 2010 seasons so I fancy myself to be a bit of an expert on scoring free or reduced seats to see the Crew. Of the last two dozen games I've attended, I've probably only paid face value for one, maybe two. There's no seat too cheap--no view too obstructed that I won't go there as long as I go there for free.

High on experience and low on class, here are my tested and true techniques for making the most of the BP C'mon Back Club program:

1. You should buy your gas in increments of eight gallons. Never, ever, under any circumstance is it acceptable to fill your tank up at 14 gallons. My wife, too, knows that if she does this, she should expect complaining.
   

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For the last couple of months I've debated "cutting the cable" to save on monthly bills. My wife and I only watch a handful of channels and mostly watch shows off of the DVR. We are tired of paying over $100 a month for something we barely use. I've figured out the logistics to watch all the necessary shows via Hulu, Netflix and over the air local channels. The last and most important obstacle is watching Brewers games live. I thought a subscription to MLB.TV would be the answer, but I recently found out they blackout any local games. Since I live just south of West Bend, this is an issue.

Watching the game as an archived game doesn't seem feasible because I would have to avoid the news and reading the Mug. Although the local blackout makes sense from the cable rights side, it seems completely counter-intuitive from being a fan of a local team. Watching the Brewers is the main reason why I would sign up. This looks like it has been a major flaw for years, and every once and a while there are rumblings of reform and stories of MLB looking to make a change but, to date, the issue still exists. Does anyone think they will make a reform?

After some quick research online, I found the using a proxy would be a workaround; however I'm pretty sure this is illegal so I want to avoid this solution. I've even looked into getting just a "local" style cable package, but it doesn't look like FSN Wisc would be offered. I figured I was not the only person with this issue and decided to reach out to the BCB community. Does anyone know a solution to my cable cutting dilemma?

If I can't come up with a way to watch games live, I will be forced to stick with the current plan. Or worse, the wife will force the cut and I'll have to follow the Cardinals. (just kidding. I'd burn myself alive before wearing a bird on my shirt)

There was more than enough interest for a league! Based on responses to the last post, it looks like we have 18 interested as of now:

SRB
Tepo6688
bcschles
Michael M
Mr Leam
ecocd
Cheeseandcorn
masondlo
Rendezvous
Saltire
NoahJ
Brewer 1 Fan
brewcrewshrew
Mr. McGehee
Jordan M
TwoShoesMcGoze
-JP-
Hyatt

The next step is to try and schedule the draft, which is important as it's pretty much the entire point of the league. I was thinking a weekend (Saturday or Sunday) in the early afternoon CST, to accommodate those of us who are overseas. The season is also fast approaching, so maybe within the next 1-3 week(end)s? Since the draft may take a while with 18 teams, I think it might also be a good idea to break the draft into two parts (i.e. Rounds 1-12, Rounds 13-25, or something like that).

Please let me know your availability, especially if you are not going to be available at a certain time/date.

Q: The bullpen lost Hawkins and Saito. Among guys like Manny Parra, Mike McClendon, Zach Braddock, Brandon Kintzler, Tim Dillard, Frankie de la Cruz etc who do you see as being a major part of the pen?

A: Hawkins and Saito, while effective were not quite as big a loss as one might think. I think Doug makes a move late in spring, maybe goes out and gets another arm. We have to see how guys like Dillard, Parra and Braddock look. The biggest thing is Doug will say “Ron do you trust this guy?” We are looking for someone in the 6th and 7th inning because we have the 8th and 9th locked up. As far as trying different roles and seeing what works, they did it with me. I started, I relieved, a saved a few games. You see a young kid with a great arm, you have to hang onto him and find out what he can do. I am confident the bullpen situation will work its way out.

Q: Aoki was recently signed to add depth to the outfield. What happens to guys like Gomez, Morgan, and Schafer this year?

A: What I think will be most interesting is how the attitudes in the clubhouse change if the Brewers start losing. Say they are a good 8-10 under by the end of June. .. It’s hard to gauge a player’s personality when the team is winning. When guys like Morgan and Gomez see their playing time and at bats dwindle do their true colors come out? Is there an issue with attitude, distractions, or a so called cancer in the clubhouse? If so, the team might trade one of these guys and Schafer comes up. He is a great player from everything I have heard and seen. I hope he stays healthy this year.

Q: The off season isn’t done yet. The Brewers have things to do and so do the rest of the teams in the division. How many wins are the Crew slated for at this point?

A: If Ryan Braun avoids a suspension and they have somebody who can step up and be a legitimate left handed bat, they win 85-87. With the loss of Prince and if they have Braun out for 50, they are battling for .500. I have heard of at least one sports talk person in town who says they are a legitimate playoff contender no matter what. I say no way. They gotta get it done on the field. You don’t win on paper. The Crew has lots of roster turnover (including three fourths of the infield) and question marks.

Q: Well let’s have a quick look at your thoughts on the teams in the Central Division as long as we are looking at the Brewers roster turnover and their projected fate this year.

A: The Cards obviously lost La Russa and Pujols, but look for Freese to have a great year. They have weapons like Furcal, Berkman and Wainwright. Having Wainwright back after he missed last season is huge. Dotel left, but they have a good closer in Motte, they got Jaime Garcia, Chris Carpenter, and a nice young lefty in Marc Rzepczynski. Let’s not forget the Cardinals are World Series champs and they have some major contributors on this team returning.

The Cubs have Dale Sveum as a stud manager. I used to play with him. Theo Epstein and those boys saw how he handled baseball players. He’s going to be great. I really like Castro, and he fills the hole at 3rd. It will be interesting to see what they do with Soriano. They lost Carlos Pena, and I don’t see them keeping Fokudome.

Pirates, well they are always going to be there, they are continuously working and they are building and getting there….

Cincinnati has a stud closer in Ryan Madson. He is a big addition. They have some bats as well. There have been upgrades throughout the division.

The Astros are definitely looking for a new identity. They will be switching leagues after this season. I have known the Astros coaches for a while. Doug Brocail I played against. Bobby Meacham was a Double A manager when I was up with the big club in Pittsburgh so I saw him in spring. Dave Clark was a teammate of mine with the Pirates.

Houston is working on rebuilding right now. In the past they had guys like Oswalt, Berkman, even Brad Lidge who they have moved to try to build up the roster. They still are saddled with the contract of Carlos Lee, but they do have a nice pawn for a trade in Wandy Rodriguez. At this point, the team doesn’t have a chance of competing. They have to get it done in the draft and with the scouting department. We are talking about going to the bare bones and starting all over again. They have to scan and pick at the college level. Just think back in the day they had guys like Bagwell, Biggio, Caminiti, and Kile. They had good players and were competitive. Those days will come again, just not right now.

The Brewers? Well they made a big step by getting Ramirez. At least they had a plan (to replace some offense), but they sure didn’t plan on losing Braun. I think Lucroy is only getting better. Gamel gets a chance this year. Aoki is a solid stick but temporary. One thing I wonder about is how Rickie and Gonzalez are going to work together in the infield. I think Ryan Braun (and his ongoing PED saga) makes or breaks the team. Maybe K Rod leads to a trade. With a salary of $8 Million, it’s a tradeable number for a closer. We could net something; never know a stud or a number one prospect. Doug Melvin has certainly pulled off some effective and surprising acquisitions in the past.

Q: Finally, the Hall of Fame, just a few random names to toss at you....do they deserve to be in, yes or no?

Barry Larkin

Tommy John

Alan Trammell

Lee Smith

Jack Morris

Jeff Bagwell

Rafael Palmeiro

Barry Bonds

Mark McGwire

A: Larkin yes, he is a stud, Palmeiro. Bonds and McGwire no, Bagwell yes, Tommy John should be in due to his longevity, Alan Trammell No, Lee Smith Yes, and Jack Morris Yes. I would have also put in Edgar Martinez and Tim Raines this year… other great players who could be considered later include Dale Murphy, Fred McGriff, Bernie Williams, and Don Mattingly.

Q: Alright Paul thanks for your time. It was a pleasure talking with you.

Paul Wagner is a former major league pitcher, appearing in the bigs throughout the 1990’s. He possessed a fastball that went up to 95 or 96 mph and a slider around 89 or 90. Career accomplishments include flirting with a no hitter, pitching for manager Jim Leyland on the last Pittsburgh Pirates team to actually do something, Pitching for his hometown Milwaukee Brewers and playing with guys over his career such as Barry Bonds, Jim Thome, David Justice, Kenny Lofton, Richie Sexson, Geoff Jenkins, Roberto Alomar, Dale Sveum, Manny Ramirez, and Marquis Grissom.

Today he resides in Oconomowoc WI with his wife and two daughters, ages 7 and 9. He is a mortgage consultant for Guaranteed Rate in Brookfield. He has covered MLB as an analyst for both ESPN 540 and Sportsradio 1250 WSSP. Recently I had a chance to sit down with Paul and gain some insight about the big leagues today.

Q: Ryan Braun and the 50 game suspension he faces. Big story. Have you ever played with or against someone, or maybe someone you were close to that had such a swirl going around him like Braun does right now?

A: Everything that was a big story surrounding players I played with was post career. There were drugs, money allegations, arrests… but nothing while our playing days were still going on. This possible 50 game suspension for the reigning league MVP is a big story.

In fact, a lot of people contacted me when the Barry Bonds BALCO info came out after my playing career. I told them I didn’t see anything and then it was a quick “click” on the phone and they moved to the next guy on their list to talk to. (chuckles)

Q: What do you think happens? Does Brauny get out of this?

A: I can’t see it. They go over so much in spring training. You put anything in your body, gum, Red Bull, Amp; you gotta talk to Roger (Caplinger, longtime Brewers trainer) and clear it with him.

If you have a medical condition such as what is rumored with Braun, you have to have your doctor submit it to MLB. If it wasn’t a Brewer doctor and it wasn’t submitted to MLB, then overturning this is not likely.

What bothers me most is the confidentiality. Why do we know about this? He hasn’t been proven guilty yet. All this stuff is leaking out about what it could be and what caused his testosterone level to be so high…

When union officials got together and “ok”ed the testing for players, it became apparent to me that nothing should be getting out. It doesn’t seem like some sources are being very quiet about this process.

I hope it gets abolished, I have my fingers crossed and I hope it gets overturned. We can’t afford this on the field. This city won’t be able to handle it if this suspension happens. It will be devastating to the organization.

Q: So who were you close to when you played?

In Pittsburgh I hung out with Steve Cooke and Denny Neagle. I roomed with Chad Fox and Steve Woodard in an apartment complex in Scottsdale when we were on the Brewers. Chad Fox was a class act and great individual. Woodard was a good player, more of a follower than a leader. In Cleveland, they had a veteran like Dave Burba on the staff and they were looking to trade Doc Gooden. I started the season at AAA Buffalo and I got to know guys like Dave Telgheder, Chris Haney, Pat Borders, and Pete Walker. I got called up when Paul Schuey got hurt.

Q: Let’s go back to the current Brewers for a minute. Call me crazy, but I think the bench is a key part of a team. The Crew has said goodbye to Jerry Hairston and Craig Counsell. While everyone talked about Prince all off season, I want to know who can come in and play some solid d in the infield and come up with good hits when we need them. I think the backups all the way across the infield are a big story. We have a hole to fill there. Does Edwin Maysonet become the next dark horse no name to do it? I truly believe Cesar Isturis makes this team. Others in the mix include Zelous Wheeler, Taylor Green, Jeff Bianchi and Eric Farris. Your thoughts…

A: Unless one of the minor league names you mentioned has a great breakout spring then they make the team, but otherwise the Brewers need veteran leadership off the bench. How the team reacts after the Prince and Braun situations will be the key factor. Do they count the season as a loss and let the kids play and see what they can do, or do they bring in another established veteran off the bench and try to go for it this year?

Q: You ever get the itch to coach in organized baseball? There are so many opportunities in WI not far from family such as the Beloit Snappers, Madison Mallards, WI Woodchucks, the WI Timber Rattlers and of course the Brewers.

A: I understand the dues you have to pay in this business. You have to work your way up the coaching ranks through the minors too just as you do as a player and I probably should have done it a long time ago. I respect the ladder or chain. If someone wants me on the Snappers or Rattlers staff and I have to ride buses, no I am not interested. If someone I played with who is familiar with my career wants to invite me on the big league staff as a pitching coach or bullpen coach, I will listen.

Q: If you could take back or change some things about your career, what would they be?

A: I would have been a reliever, at least in the very beginning. Part of maturing or progressing in the majors is understanding you are not invincible. You realize what was important then when you are young and dumb isn’t so important now. I wouldn’t have changed necessarily the fitness or the maintenance of my body, just the decisions I made. I figured as a starter I could have 4 days off to do whatever in between games. As a reliever, you gotta be ready at anytime to go in the game. That teaches you responsibility.

Q: There have been big name players who you knew in your career. As you got to know them, I am sure you knew how hard a decision it must have been for them when it came to free agency and contracts. What are your thoughts on the ultimate result that happened with the Prince Fielder situation?

A: I like a lot of loyal Brewer fans stood hoping and praying with my fingers crossed that something would get worked out, even a deal for less years, but ultimately we lost another home grown talent. It’s tough to compete in this very high priced free agent market. I wish Prince all the best and I hope the fans understand the situation Prince was in. There should be no burning of jerseys or ill feelings. He put his time in the major leagues that ultimately results in being awarded.

Think about it this way. If you were a plumber and there is a chance to take a job somewhere else, say California, you wouldn’t have to go through a year to year “arbitration process” or be under “team control” for a period of time like a baseball player does. You could just go take the position when you wanted to. He had to go somewhere. It’s a tough pill to swallow for Brewer fans.

One thing we can all look back on is that Prince really helped establish a winning tradition in Milwaukee. It wasn’t all that long ago that free agents really didn’t want to come to Milwaukee. I got claimed off of waivers by the Twins by Terry Ryan but I chose Milwaukee instead because it was my hometown team. We as a ballclub had to overpay to get people like Jeffrey Hammonds because it was such a hard sell to get people to join the team. Looking at Prince, I believe he doesn’t have a bad thing to say about Milwaukee. He seemed to love his time here, the people, and the organization.

Q: How does having Prince on Jim Leyland’s team help and affect that ballclub?

A: It is definitely a huge sign for the Tigers and of course a huge loss for the Brewers. You put Prince and Cabrera together they could be the best 1-2 punch out there. It is a different league, and pitchers will be throwing breaking balls, and it will take an adjustment period for him to be successful but I think the Tigers win the AL Central by a good 5-10 games. They will be meeting the Rangers in the playoffs and they have one of the best managers in the game with Jim Leyland to guide them along the way. In addition to Leyland, I played with guys on Leyland’s staff such as Lloyd McClendon and Rafael Belliard. I was coached by Gene Lamont, also on Leyland’s staff. This is a good group of guys who knows what it takes to be competitive.

Also remember, teams in baseball usually have insurance policies on players. The Tigers most likely will not rush Victor Martinez to come back because they would be responsible for paying more of the contract. Look for Prince to have a good year. I am sure the team had to pay a percent of Prince’s contract for an insurance premium on him too, and he is a big investment for that franchise.

Q: That leads us to the uncertainty of the replacements on the Brewers team. Some have said Aramis Ramirez just can’t replace what we had in the lineup with Prince’s bat. Your thoughts?

A: There is not a left handed guy in baseball that can replace Prince Fielder’s bat. And that includes Joey Votto and Josh Hamilton.

Q: And the other replacement aspect is first base. Do you think this is the year Gamel finally breaks through, or is it possible someone else emerges at first?

A: Although the Brewers could have maybe got a guy like Carlos Pena, I really think Gamel will be fine as long as he stays up here the whole year. The key is to let him adjust, I mean this kid is clenching his bat and getting all nervous up there. He has had a lot of pressure. He knows he has been brought up here for just interleague play and then he goes right back down to the minors. If you need to, let him split some time and be a left handed bat off the bench. And I am not saying I don’t like Taylor Green. He is a solid player who has played some first in the minors and he will see some time too.

Q: New Shortstop Alex Gonzalez. Do you like the move?

A: I like the Gonzalez move. The thing is Yuni B. went back to KC, and stuff takes time, whether you’re going to the Navy, or a high school kid adjusting to college, a college kid adjusting to the pros, you have to let him feel his way out, get used to his surroundings and find the comfort zone. There is always a time of adjustment just as there will be with Prince’s new surroundings, and I think Yuni B would have been fine if he was here a second year, but out of the guys available Gonzalez was a good move. He can play 150-160 games. Other names out there like Edgar Renteria and Omar Vizquel, who just signed with the Jays, solid older veteran players, they would have only got you 100-110 games.

THERE IS MORE COMING UP IN PART TWO ON MONDAY, INCLUDING A BREAK DOWN OF THE BULLPEN, A RUN DOWN OF THE NL CENTRAL AND THOUGHTS ON THE HALL OF FAME SELECTIONS….

Since there seemed to be some interest in doing a Brew Crew Ball "fantasy" league based around advanced stats, e.g. fWAR or rWAR or whatever, I decided to make a post to discuss a possible league. My original idea was to do a league that was aimed at being more "realistic" than traditional fantasy leagues; that is, if you were drafting an actual MLB 25-man roster for the 2012 season, who would you take, factoring in defense, offense, durability, etc. So in other words, basically what WAR attempts to measure (overall player value).

Carlos Gomez is actually sort-of a viable fantasy option!!! (via usatoday.net)

As a result of the difficulty in continually updating a league based on advanced stats, and since myself and probably others really like drafting fantasy teams but can lose interest in continually entering lineups as the season drags on, I think the league should be KittenMittons-friendly. That is, a main draft, maybe monthly updated standings, and then final standings to determine a winner, but no lineups, daily/weekly changes, trades, or add/drops. If a player gets hurt, he's replaced by someone from an exactly replacement-level farm system (0.0 WAR) just like would theoretically happen in real life. That also makes it easier to calculate team standings.

My initial idea, in the vein of being "realistic," was also to do 25-man rosters with roughly the same positions as a real team: C-1B-2B-SS-3B-LF-CF-RF-C-IF-IF-OF-OF SP-SP-SP-SP-SP-(SP)-RP-RP-RP-RP-RP-RP. That would end up giving the team's total WAR more than a real team would have, since people would presumably be drafting starters for their bench spots and thus giving the team an impossible amount of playing time, but it would be fairly close.

However! Everyone should propose whatever rules they think would be best. Cheeseandcorn proposed a scoring system more like traditional roto/category leagues that would break up WAR into it's component parts and score based on that. tcyoung had an interesting idea to draft by team-position, for example "Brewers CF" rather than Nyjer Morgan, but I think Fangraphs changed (?) such that it no longer seems possible to accurately filter fWAR by team-position, so that idea may not be feasible.

If anyone is either 1) interested in doing this league (you only need to commit for the draft, so feel free to show up on draft day, draft a team, and then zone out until final standings are announced at the end of the year!), or 2) would like to propose rules, please comment below!

Interested Parties:
SRB
Tepo6688
bcschles
Michael M
Mr Leam
ecocd
Cheeseandcorn
masondlo
Rendezvous
Saltire
NoahJ
Brewer 1 Fan
brewcrewshrew
Mr. McGehee
Jordan M
TwoShoesMcGoze
-JP-
Hyatt

Given that the details of Fielders contract haven't been released, we can't really do a proper comparison of the two. What we can do, however, is make a few assumptions. (And yes, they're going to be very broad assumptions, but they're generally supportable).

Let's assume that Fielder's contract is level for all 9 years, earning him about 23.8M per. Let's further assume that the long term inflation rate is 3%, as is generally forecasted for a short term period.

Discounting the nominal values:

Pujols' contract in 2012 dollars = 201.05M

Fielder's contract in 2012 dollars = 185.15M

This gives us a difference of 15.91M. But, that's not a fair comparison. We know that as of 2011, living in Detroit is 45% cheaper than living in Los Angeles. (Note: Home prices in Detroit are approximately 83% lower than those in LA, but I'll use the 45% Cost of Living Adjustment, for the sake of conservatism).

Let's further assume that the divide between Detroit and LA Decreases by 5% per year, as the automotive economy picks up, and as the housing market in the "Sand States" of the union continues to decline. So, from a 45% adjustment in 2012, we decline exponentially to a 29.9% adjustment in 2020.

So, if we adjust Fielders contract by dividing by one minus this adjustment (essentially adjusting it to get the same "purchase power" as Pujols' contract in LA gets --> Detroit Dollars * LA Purchase Power/Detroit Purchase Power = LA Dollars):

Fielder's annual purchase power adjusted salaries:

Discounting THIS cash flow stream at the same 3% gives him 297.3M in 2011 dollars, at the same purchase power level as Pujols is getting in LA.

So, you could argue that Fielder's contract is about 96M BETTER than Pujols', simply because of location.

Then again, you could argue (and I'd agree with you), that when you're talking about this much money, the general economy doesn't really impact you that significantly, and that you're less likely to actually live in the area where you're working, and thus Fielder won't draw on the massively cheaper cost of living in Detroit (because he doesn't have to).

But, assuming they live and spend most of their time where they work, Fielder can buy more toys with his contract than Pujols can buy with his. Still has to spend a lot of time in Detroit though. Which negates pretty much all the benefits.

So you can argue (and again, I'd agree), that this analysis isn't really relevant because of the raw dollars involved. It's kind of interesting, though...

So we're in the second half of January now, and Prince Fielder is not yet signed as a free agent. I think it's probably pretty easy for Scott Boras to get people interested in having Fielder be a part of their team, but the hesitation enters when they start talking about contract length. Teams would love to sign Fielder through 2015, without a doubt. If he said he was willing to sign a contract for just those years, the numbers could get silly. Unfortunately I think they're looking for nothing less than six years, and probably closer to eight or nine.

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Q: Is it true that NPB position players coming to MLB have all been busts other than Ichiro?

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Its that time again, folks. Thus far here's what we know:

• The Brewers are presumably going to need go with Mat Gamel a starting at 1B.
• The Brewers are presumably going to need a upgraded starting SS with Alex Gonzalez.
• Francisco Rodriguez, Takashi Saito, LaTroy Hawkins are all free agents, opening up three two holes in the bullpen, one of which was filled by Jose Veras, the other presumably will be filled by Zach Braddock.
• Francisco Rodriguez accepted the Brewers arbitration offer. I think Doug will try to keep him on the team for the entire year.

As a point of reference, my arb estimates will be in bold, MLBTR's will be italicized. The payroll total with MLBTR's estimates will also be italicized at the bottom. EDIT 1/8/12: I'll put the running total as accurate figures come out to the far left at the bottom of the article. Immediately to the right will be my original estimate, and to the far right the MLBTR estimate total.

So, without further ado, here's how things currently sit:

C - Jonathan Lucroy - $480k
C - George Kottaras - $700k ($750k / $800k)
1B - Mat Gamel - $480k
2B - Rickie Weeks - $11.0M
SS - Alex Gonzalez - $4.25M
3B - Aramis Ramirez - $6M
IF - Taylor Green - $480k
IF -
LF - Ryan Braun - $7M
CF - Nyjer Morgan - $2.35M ($2M / $1.9M)
RF - Corey Hart - $9.33M
OF - Carlos Gomez - $1.9625M ($2M / $1.8M)
OF - Norichika Aoki -

SP - Zack Greinke - $13.5M
SP - Yovani Gallardo - $5.75M
SP - Shaun Marcum - $6M (arb 3) $6.8M (Filing: $6.75/$8)
SP - Randy Wolf - $9.5M
SP - Chris Narveson - $480k

LR - Manny Parra - $1.2M ($1.5M / $1.2M)

RP - John Axford - $480k

RP - Kameron Loe - $2.175M ($1.75M/$2.8M)

RP - Marco Estrada - $480k
RP - Jose Veras - $2.5M (arb1)
RP - Zach Braddock - $480k
RP - Francisco Rodriguez - $8M ($11M was estimate)

2012 commitments to others:

Francisco Rodriguez option: $500k (negotiated deal to remove vesting clause, Mets paying initial $3.5M)

Yuniesky Betancourt buyout: $2M

Total 2012 Payroll commitments:

$94.5775 $97.19 $98.49

As always, click RIGHT HERE to get to the Google Docs spreadsheet I keep running. More assumptions and discussion after the jump!

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