Tuesday's Frosty Mug
The Brewers actually delivered their formal offer to CC Sabathia yesterday. Ed Valentine who writes about the Yankees for Bugs & Cranks, thinks Sabathia is worth about 6 years, $150 million to the Yankees. That strikes me as about right. Rowland's Office thinks the Braves could sign free agency's best pitcher...but it's Japanese starter Junichi Tazawa, not Sabathia.
MLB Trade Rumors has predicted where the top 50 free agents will end up. He's got CC Sabathia as a Yankee, Ben Sheets as a Brave and Ray Durham as a Diamondback. Perhaps more interestingly, he has Brian Fuentes and Jon Garland as Brewers. Crawfish Boxes says Sheets could rejoin Mike Maddux in Texas.
On the trade front: Buried in this story on Mike Cameron's return, Doug Melvin said he's not talking with the Padres about Jake Peavy. Melvin says he was unwilling to give up young pitching, but it's also possible Peavy would have rejected a trade to Milwaukee, as he appears to have listed seven teams he's willing to play for in 2009.
Here's a deal that would turn some heads: Infield Chatter proposes a three-team deal for the Brewers, Tigers and Rays with the Brewers sending J.J. Hardy to the Tigers and getting Rays SP Andy Sonnanstine and minor leaguer Jeremy Hellickson. The Tigers may be looking to cut payroll.
Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal says the Brewers likely will not move Prince Fielder this offseason and Rick Peterson does not appear to be a candidate for the pitching coach position, which will likely be filled by bullpen coach Bill Castro.
Craig Counsell and Guillermo Mota filed for free agency Monday, joining Francisco Rodriguez, as well as Rafael Furcal, Omar Vizquel, Edgar Renteria, Brandon Lyon, Paul Byrd, former Rays Cliff Floyd and Trever Miller and Reds Corey Patterson, Paul Bako and David Weathers.
One free agent may not be available after all: Scott Boras, who represents Greg Maddux, said Maddux is leaning towards retirement. Maddux has 355 career wins, eighth most all time. If he pitched in 2009 and won ten games, he'd move all the way up to fifth.
The coaching carousel has some names you'll recognize on it this morning: Bleeding Blue and Teal has a list of potential candidates to manage the Mariners, including Ned Yost, Willie Randolph, Bob Brenly and Ted Simmons. If Randolph interviews, it will be his second interview with Zduriencik, who was part of Randolph's interview in Milwaukee. And as for Ted Simmons, he won't sit home even if he doesn't get the Seattle job: he and former Brewer manager Jim Lefebvre recently joined the Padres coaching staff.
Oh, and be careful with #3 pencils.
Drink up. And go vote!
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Wednesday's Frosty Mug
The Peoria Javelinas defeated Surprise yesterday, 10-3. Omar Aguilar was the only Brewer prospect to appear in the game, and he allowed one hit while pitching a scoreless ninth. Box Score
The West Oahu CaneFires defeated North Shore 7-6. Chris Cody started the game and gave up four runs on eight hits in just 3.1 innings, but did strike out 7. He leads the Hawai'i Winter League with 12 K's in 3 appearances. Caleb Gindl went 1-for-4 with a walk. He's hitting .250/.364/.429 in his first 7 games in Hawai'i. Box Score
The Javelinas travel to Surprise today at 12:35 local time (2:35 in Milwaukee). The CaneFires play North Shore again tonight at 7:05 local time, which I think is five minutes after midnight at home.
Closer to home, we have a few more season in review posts. Big League Stew has their nail in the coffin on the 2008 Brewers. Jeff analyzed the Phillies/Brewers series over at The Hardball Times. Brian Anderson has his list of favorite Brewer moments from 2008. He also reveals that he's signed a five-year extension that will keep him with the Brewers through 2013.
I'll separate this one from the pack, because sometimes that helps when I want to make fun of something: The FanGraphs Brewer season in review has this quote in it:
Between the Green Pillars compares several Brewers' performances to their preseason projections. Most of them are about what you'd expect, but a couple of guys (J.J. Hardy, for example) don't get enough credit for the season they had.
Speaking of 2008 productivity, four Brewers are on Beyond The Box Score's quiz comparing 2008 hitters. I only got 8 of the 31 questions correct. Go see if you can do better.
There's only one link in today's Sabathia Smorgasbord, and if you've been around the web at all lately you've probably seen it: Ryan Braun thinks the Brewers have a shot at re-signing CC Sabathia, and that he might take fewer years for the same money to stay in Milwaukee. It seems unlikely, but Braun's been a straight-shooter in the past, so I have no reason to doubt him.
If this guy shaves Sabathia's name and number into his back hair to go with the "Go Brewers" shaved into his chest hair, will it make Sabathia any more likely to stay? The answer is probably no.
I don't expect Prince Fielder to be on the move this offseason, but if he is MLB Trade Rumors has six places he might be headed. Two-Fisted Slopper has a look at the Brewers' roster headed into the offseason, and makes a few predictions.
Before any decisions can be made on the 2009 roster, though, a decision needs to be made on interim manager Dale Sveum. J.J. Hardy, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Jeff Suppan all want him back. And of course, we've already heard the same from Jason Kendall, Craig Counsell and Robin Yount. Fielder's quote:
By 2010, the Brewers and Miller Park will have spent $9-12 million on a new HD scoreboard. Maybe they can show Packer games on it, since about twice as many TVs in Milwaukee preferred regular season football over playoff baseball.
So we've all more or less accepted the argument that Russell Branyan is a platoon-only hitter and can't hit lefties, right? But is it true? Geoff Young of Baseball Digest Daily takes a closer look.
Here are some hot stove notes:
- The Cub Reporter has a quote suggesting the Cubs will raise their payroll in 2009, and begin to act like more of a large-market club.
- The Rockies declined their option on RP Matt Herges, making him a free agent.
- The Reds are going to let Corey Patterson and former Brewer Paul Bako walk.
- The Mariners will most likely not re-sign Raul Ibanez, leading Bleeding Blue and Teal to make a list of places where he needs to sign to maximize the Mariners' draft compensation.
Today is our tenth day after the end of the regular season, and there's still not a single managerial vacancy, but the Rockies did fire their bench coach, hitting coach and third base coach and re-assign their bullpen coach yesterday. (h/t Purple Row)
Looking for work? The Astros are looking for an assistant GM for their AA affiliate, and the Yankees need an administrative assistant for business development. Update your resume today.
Oh, and if you want to be a ninja, you may want to check out this quick tutorial on smoke bombs.
Drink up.
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The All-Grit Team
I'm not exactly an authority on grit, but it was about time someone named an All-Grit Team. All-Star Week seemed appropriate.
- C Jason Kendall
- 1B Platoon: Doug Mientkiwicz / Kevin Millar
- 2B Mark Grudzielanek
- 3B Ryan Freel
- SS David Eckstein
- LF Scott Podsednik
- CF Aaron Rowand
- RF Eric Byrnes
If a DH were needed, the all-grit team would do one of two things:
- Bat the pitcher, because truly gritty players are throwbacks to when pitchers could hit for themselves
- Go with Willie Bloomquist.
The bench is a little unbalanced--in addition to the eight starters, 1B platoon, and Bloomquist, that leaves four or five spots. Again, these guys are throwbacks, so a 10-man pitching staff would have to do the job. That leaves two roster spots for Craig Counsell (team captain) and Nick Punto and three more for backup catchers. Doesn't really matter which ones, though I think Paul Bako has to be on the team.
It doesn't matter that there aren't any backup outfielders, because any truly gritty player can play anywhere in the diamond. In that sense, there are twelve backup outfielders. Similarly, it doesn't really matter which outfielders are assigned to which position, since any of the three could play center, but they, of course, will play wherever they're needed.
I haven't figured out what to do about the pitching staff, since pitchers aren't generally considered gritty in the same way that position players are. It seems that gritty pitchers are generally guys who have hung on past their prime (like Jamie Moyer) or lefty relievers (like Brian Shouse) or both.
You may note that I didn't include a batting lineup--the list above is just the fielding alignment. That's going to be a serious problem for manager Gabe Kapler--left to their own devices, everyone on this team would bat second.
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Tuesday's Plastic Cup
As regular readers know, KL would occasionally mention the large number of blogs he reads every day to provide the Frosty Mug. A while back, he sent me the list so I could import it into Google Reader, and let me tell you, it is a LOT of blogs. Since this time yesterday, there were about 450 new posts to read skim mostly ignore.
No game last night, of course, and not really much going on in Brewers news. Weeks is on the DL, Iribarren is called up. Brewers scouts were at an Orioles game (which could have something to do with our series against the Orioles next weekend), Doug says he's not interested in Brian Roberts, but then again, this is all via Tom H, who the front office may or may not be toying with.
Adam McCalvy has a new mailbag up. The JS guys do too, but the JS site is down right now, so I'm not going to link to it. Another JS article that is currently unavailable: Mike Cameron doesn't like being on the bench.
In-Between Hops thinks Carlos Villanueva should get a look as closer. Personally, I'm happy sticking with Torres for a while, and as long as Torres holds up, Villa can be a two-inning guy when needed.
Right Field Bleachers interviewed supplemental pick Evan Frederickson. Later today, battlekow will post his interview with Frederickson. Also, if you haven't been here in a couple of days, scroll down for another Evan interview--this one with Evan Bronson, a lower-round pick.
More obscure draft/minor leaguer news: The Brewers signed Brandon Drespling, an outfielder from Westminster College in Pennsylvania. (Yes, that's WAY off the beaten scouting path.) Follow the link for his stats and splits. I hope his first hitting coach mentions that it's ok not to swing now and then.
The big baseball news yesterday was Ken Griffey Jr.'s home run #600. Roch Kubatko leads his article with an even more incredible occurrence:
Paul Bako had the first multi-homer game of his career.
Joe Posnanski takes the milestone seriously and, as usual, turns in a great piece.
Pitcher fatigue is in the air. In addition to Josh's great diary outlining how Brewers starters tire (or not), check out his article at The Hardball Times. It includes Sheets, and has the interesting note that a change in fastball movement might be a better indicator of fatigue than a decrease in velocity.
Pizza Cutter also looks at pitcher fatigue, through more traditional means. A finding that might bring a Brewers starter or two to mind:
Does fatigue affect DIPS? For a long time, it’s been assumed that balls in play went for hits at a rate that had more to do with the defense than the pitcher. That’s been based mostly on season-to-season intercorrelations. But, what about within a game? The answer is… yes, there is an effect. At lower pitch counts, a ball in play is less likely to be a hit, again, controlling for batter/pitcher rates. Additionally, there’s an effect for number of times through the lineup (already controlling for the fact that there will be a pitch count effect.) So, we would expect that starters who are efficient with their pitch count to have a lower BABIP overall.
That'll do it for today. Check back this afternoon for the Frederickson interview, and drop in tonight for the 7:05 start in Houston.
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Fatigue! It's Catching.
So, in this morning's Mug I included this stat, to get people thinking a bit about the Brewers' catching situation:
Johnny Estrada, May 2007: .236/.244/.449
Jason Kendall, April 2008: .301/.366/.398
Jason Kendall, May 2008: .224/.314/.290
The Brewers have what I consider to be a disturbing trend going on with their catchers, dating back to last season, but also visible during the Damian Miller era: They play their starting catchers a lot, often to the point of impacting their performance. Last year, despite being unavailable for some significant stretches of time, Estrada caught more innings than all but 7 NL catchers. He caught nearly everyday despite being nearly unable to move in August and September.
Make no mistake, Jason Kendall is catching a lot this season too. Consider this list: the top 10 NL Catchers by percentage of team innings caught.
Jason Kendall, 88.6%
Brian McCann, 88.1%
Russell Martin, 86.7%
Geovany Soto, 85.2%
Yadier Molina, 79.3%
Bengie Molina, 76.0%
Paul Bako, 71.8%
Chris Snyder, 70.0%
Josh Bard, 70.0%
J.R. Towles, 64.0%
An important note regarding this list: Brian McCann is 24. Martin and Soto are 25. In fact, there's only three catchers on this list over 30: Bako (37), Kendall (34) and Bard (30).
There were only five catchers in the National League who caught 1000 innings last season. Kendall is on pace to catch 1282. That's more than any NL backstop caught in 2007, and it'd be the second highest total of his career. Again, he's 34 years old and has already caught over 14,000 innings. Maybe this would all be irrelevant if he was hitting. But as I mentioned above, there's a visible decline in play. His OPS is down over 150 points in May. And he's still got 4 full months of catching nearly every day ahead of him.
At the same time, he has a capable backup. Mike Rivera battled it out in spring training and beat out an established major league catcher (Eric Munson) and a fan favorite (Vinny Rottino) to earn the right to wear his catcher's gear just 8 times and get just 25 plate appearances in the opening 47 games. It's hard to imagine he's having any luck staying sharp when he's playing less than once per week. But he's still 7-for-24, hitting 27 points better than Kendall.
I don't think one can make an argument that Rivera should play every day, or even that a 50/50 split is in order. I like Kendall's contributions to this team, and I've bought into the hype on his defensive skills and game-calling abilities. I have one simple recommendation that I think would keep Kendall stronger and healthier, keep Rivera getting consistent plate appearances and give the team the best chance to win:
When Manny Parra starts, Mike Rivera should too. This is win-win all around. It gives Kendall consistent rest, Rivera consistent plate appearances, and it gives Parra a familiar catcher to throw to as he works to improve his game at the big league level. Parra has a 4.09 ERA this season when pitching to Rivera, and a 4.50 ERA when pitching to Kendall. Plus, Rivera caught Parra's perfect game in AAA last season.
What do you think?
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