Tuesday's Frosty Mug
Easily the biggest news of the day: the JS, USA Today and The Official Site are all reporting that the Brewers are still in the hunt for CC Sabathia following a recent meeting with his representatives. Two-Fisted Slopper likes the deal if it has an opt-out clause, and UmpBump thinks the Brewers need to go all in. Meanwhile, there's varying reports on whether or not Sabathia said he wants to be a Dodger and the likelihood he'll get an offer from the Giants.
Meanwhile, Ben Sheets is in Vegas looking for work as well. He's already met with the Yankees and Rangers. Rumor has it the Yankees are ready to offer him a two-year deal, but the Rangers are still trying to figure out if they can afford him.
Yesterday I noted that the Brewers had been mentioned as a team that might be interested in trading for Adrian Beltre, and I said there were worse options out there. One of those options is giving significant playing time to Mike Lamb, who re-signed yesterday. Ken Rosenthal speculated that the Brewers may be willing to trade Bill Hall now that Lamb is back, but Hall is one of Sabathia's 1000 best friends.
If you're curious how Hall moves to his left defensively, or really how any major leaguer moves in any direction in pursuit of any type of hit, Baseball Musings has uploaded defensive charts for the 2008 season.
On prospects: Baseball Prospectus has ranked their top 11 Brewer prospects, with Alcides Escobar coming in at #1. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal says the Brewers are not willing to trade Escobar for available closers Bobby Jenks or J.J. Putz.
FanFoodie is a new blog devoted to profiling and uncovering the secrets of great ballpark food. Be sure to check out their story on Secret Stadium Sauce.
Even on minimal sleep, I can see the transition from Secret Stadium Sauce to the Hot Stove...
Blue Jays: Could be in the group of teams looking to sign Rafael Furcal.
Cardinals: Were not in the group of teams looking to sign A.J. Burnett after all.
Dodgers: Have signed Mark Loretta and may be close to re-signing Casey Blake. Also may consider non-tendering Takashi Saito amidst lingering concerns about his elbow.
Giants: Reportedly offered Derrick Turnbow a minor league deal, but he's looking for something guaranteed.
Mariners: Signed Chris Shelton to a minor league deal.
Mets: Are reportedly close to signing Francisco Rodriguez to a three year deal.
Tigers: Signed Adam Everett to a one year, $1 million deal. May also be interested in trading for J.J. Putz.
I'm no fan of Scott Boras, but I don't think this one is his fault: Corey Patterson has dumped Boras and picked out new representation. I'm sure that's what was keeping the .205/.238/.344 hitting outfielder from getting work.
Also, remember Matt Childers? Yes, TheJay, I know you do...anyone else? Beerleaguer is reporting the former Brewer, who spent 2008 in the Phillies organization, is headed to Japan.
Oh, and today is a Woot-off day. This could be your last chance to buy cheap electronic junk before Christmas. Shop accordingly.
Drink up.
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Monday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while protecting your mate from unwanted advances.
So you've probably heard that CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Brian Shouse all declined arbitration over the weekend. In fact, of the 24 free agents offered arbitration, 22 declined. Bleeding Blue and Teal thinks the Mariners should target Shouse, but as noted below, the Mariners appear to be targeting the entire Brewers organization.
Bleeding Blue and Teal also has the Brewers as a potential 2009 destination for 3B Adrian Beltre. There are worse options out there.
How's your fastball? The Junkball Blues takes a look at the fastball of Ben Sheets, CC Sabathia, Seth McClung and a host of other Brewers.
Here's today's Sabathia Smorgasbord:
- You've likely heard this one, as Jon Heyman and several other outlets are reporting the Brewers are expected to upgrade their offer to Sabathia, perhaps to include a sixth season.
- Could the Red Sox be a player? MLB Trade Rumors says team officials will meet with Sabathia. Ian Browne of MLB.com downplayed the possibility anything could happen.
- Bill Hall says 5 years/$100 million might be enough to keep Sabathia around.
- Dayn Perry says Mark Teixiera will be a much less risky signing for his eventual team.
FanGraphs thinks the Brewers got a pretty good deal on Jorge Julio, based on his projections for 2009.
We've been talking for months about the possibility of Mike Cameron moving to New York, but I don't know if we've ever discussed the possibility that he could be a Met.
Are you craving more minor league discussion? John Sickels is getting ready to release his list of the top 20 Brewer prospects. Click the link to go discuss your favorite prospects.
Speaking of prospects, TheJay has continued the series over at Recondite Baseball by making leaderboards for errors in AA, giving me the opportunity to point out that Chris Errecart (1B), Mike Bell (2B), Mat Gamel (3B) and Cole Gillespie (OF) were all among the leaders.
So, with the Winter Meetings almost over, the next deadline is Friday, when teams could non-tender players for 2009. MLB Trade Rumors has a list of candidates, including Chris Capuano. Elsewhere on the hot stove:
Angels: Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixiera and Jon Garland all declined arbitration, but Darren Oliver accepted.
Astros: Signed Matt Kata to a minor league deal.
Athletics: The team reportedly offered Rafael Furcal a four year deal, but will move on to other targets now that he's rejected it.
Blue Jays: A.J. Burnett declined arbitration. Joe DelGrippo says his mechanics make him a high injury risk.
Braves: Team officials sound pretty optimistic about John Smoltz's chances to return in 2009 after watching him throw off a mound this weekend. They're also aggressively pursuing Raul Ibanez at the winter meetings.
Cardinals: May still be in the running for Jake Peavy after all. They're also showing interest in A.J. Burnett.
Cubs: Signed former Brewer C Mark Johnson and two others to minor league deals.
D-Backs: Brandon Lyon declined arbitration and is likely headed elsewhere. With him and Adam Dunn gone, the team might have money to re-sign Randy Johnson after all.
Dodgers: Manny Ramirez, Derek Lowe and Casey Blake all declined arbitration. Also, Joe Torre downplayed a rumor that Andy Pettitte could come to LA.
Giants: Are downplaying their interest in several big-ticket free agents, but especially Manny Ramirez.
Indians: Signed Tomo Ohka to a minor league deal.
Mariners: The team has to be hoping one of the jilted suitors for Pirates SS Jack Wilson will turn their attention to Yuniesky Betancourt. Also, Raul Ibanez declined arbitration.
Mets: Oliver Perez declined arbitration.
Rangers: The team may be looking to trim payroll, which I guess makes them a less likely suitor for Ben Sheets. Also, Milton Bradley declined arbitration.
Red Sox: Jason Varitek declined arbitration.
Reds: Re-signed Mike Lincoln to a two-year deal. Also, they may or may not have reached a deal to trade Homer Bailey to the White Sox for Jermaine Dye, depending on which source you believe, and David Weathers accepted arbitration.
Rockies: Brian Fuentes declined arbitration.
Tigers: Have reportedly reached a deal to acquire C Gerald Laird from the Rangers. They could also be looking to sign Kerry Wood.
Obviously, we're still a while away from knowing which players made the Hall of Fame on the BBWAA ballot, but Dugout Central is reporting Joe Torre, Dick Allen and Ron Santo will be elected by the Veterans' Committee. UPDATE: THEY'RE WRONG. Meanwhile, Dan Plesac, one of three former Brewers on the BBWAA ballot, has accepted a job with the new MLB Network. He'll get to play in their new mini stadium.
I'm still somewhat behind the curve on defensive metrics, although I'm trying to learn. If you're also learning, you should probably check out Dave Cameron's post on the goals and limitations of defensive stats.
We'll always have enough Tigers, Lions, Bears and Wildcats, so I for one applaud the voters for renaming the Winston-Salem baseball team The Dash.
In what can only be considered good news for the game, baseball continues to become more of a global sport. Just this offseason, the Pirates have signed players from South Africa and India, and the Rays are opening an academy in Brazil.
Meanwhile, if you're looking for a job that pays next to nothing a little closer to home, the Brewers are hiring interns.
Oh, and this doesn't work. Trust a voice of experience.
Drink up.
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Monday's Frosty Mug
Looks like the Brewers could use an upgrade.
Saturday's Win Probability Graph
Saturday's BR Box Score
Sunday's (Game 1) Win Probability Graph
Sunday's (Game 1) BR Box Score
Sunday's (Yes, we lost Game 2 too) Win Expectancy Graph
Sunday's (The 2008 Brewers can be compared to 2004 Howard Dean) BR Box Score
Ok, let's just be honest with each other for a moment. You probably feel like reading about and re-living this weekend about as much as I feel like writing about and re-living this weekend, right? So let's just do bullet points and get back to enjoying a rare September day where the Brewers probably won't lose, because they're off.
- In-Between Hops noted on Friday that the Brewers had been held under 5 runs for 9 straight games. It's 12 now, longest streak since 1972.
- Chuckie Hacks is comparing this season to a Peanuts cartoon you'll recognize.
- Fire Ned Yost delivered the beatdown and Yost offers an explanation for why Brian Shouse was allowed to blow a game wide open this weekend.
- Shouse reacts.
- Ryan Braun called it a "complete and total disaster."
- Jim Powell was already worried on Friday.
- Al still blames the umpires.
- Ken Rosenthal says Yost is gone if the Brewers miss the playoffs. A rare silver lining.
- Already gone: Nashville manager Frank Kremblas.
- CC Sabathia may be an Angel next season.
- Phil Rogers ranked the Brewers 13th, down from sixth, and behind the accuracy of hurricane forecasts.
- Rod Barajas, Adrian Beltre, Mets OF Damian Easley, Tom Gorzelanny, Vlad Guerrero and Joel Zumaya got injured.
- Carlos Zambrano no-hit the Astros at Miller Park last night.
- Crawfish Boxes says Miller Park was the wrong place to play these games. Brian McTaggart says they should've played in Arlington.
- Micah Owings made his Reds debut yesterday, and beat the D-Backs, his former team, with a pinch hit in the 10th. Drink up. Or just dump it on the ground.
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Wednesday's Frosty Mug
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
So here we are again, talking about a disappointing Brewer loss at home to an inferior team that's already been eliminated from the playoffs. It all kind of feels like another ball of yarn.
Tom H. swerved off onto Hyperbole Drive and asks if there is any hope for the 2008 Brewers. Admittedly, I'm as down on this team as anyone right now, but while they're still leading the race for a playoff spot, I'm not quite ready to abandon all hope.
Chuckie Hacks, on the other hand, has swerved in the other direction onto All is Well Boulevard. I don't really think that's any better.
Of course, if neither of those approaches are your style, you could just ceaselessly complain about umpiring.
This is still unlikely, but would've seemed impossible two weeks ago: Baseball Musings has the scenario required for five teams to tie for the NL Wild Card.
Rowland's Office, a Braves blog, has been hearing the suggestion that Ned Yost may eventually replace Bobby Cox in Atlanta, but he makes the case against it. I love the prospect of Ned managing anywhere else.
On injuries:
Adrian Beltre will miss a few days to recover from pain in his damaged thumb, which he's been playing with all season.
Paul Konerko has a sprained MCL in his knee. He'll undergo an MRI today but should only miss a few days.
Brandon Phillips broke his finger on a failed bunt attempt before singling home the winning run last night. He's done for 2008.
Marlins SP Chris Volstad left last night's game in the 3rd inning after being hit in the leg by two different batted balls.
This should serve as a cautionary tale for anyone considering offering a huge contract to a pitcher this offseason: Mike Hampton is still on the Rockies' payroll through the end of the month.
On the other hand, maybe this one isn't a sunk cost after all: Buried in this post on Giants beat writer Andrew Baggarly's blog, he notes that Barry Zito has nine wins and three starts remaining this season, and the Giants have avoided losing 100 games.
Mets P Ambiorix Burgos probably won't pitch in the big leagues for a while, and may do some time after being arrested last night for a domestic assault.
Oh, and Joe Posnanski deconstructed the Spiderman song.
Drink up.
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Wednesday's Frosty Mug
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
So, if you've been watching the games, you probably realize that Rickie Weeks is hitting .273/.467/.636 in the three games since the Durham trade. This one, however, snuck up on me: Bill Hall is hitting .405/.444/.833 with 4 home runs in his last 12 games. Adam Charles of Bugs & Cranks has a theory to explain it: Magic Skoal.
It's going to take more than chewing tobacco to get him back to the big leagues, but the Brewers signed Jay Gibbons to a minor league deal yesterday, ending his 27-game career with the Long Island Ducks.
After I complained in yesterday's Mug about the Whisnant rankings and suggested their ranking system could use a little work, I got an email from Paul Kuo of Whatifsports.com, who wanted to make sure I had seen their most recent power rankings. On the strength of the Sabathia trade the Brewers skyrocketed up the charts to fourth this week, so obviously the WIS rankings are better.
Also, CBSSports.com ranks the Brewers sixth, and second best in the NL.
TheJay is working to quantify Vulture Wins, and discovered that both Salomon Torres and Brian Shouse are among the league leaders. Reall,y, if you just start checking Recondite Baseball every day, you'll be one step ahead of everyone else when the Mug comes out.
On injuries:
White Sox 3B Joe Crede was scratched from last night's lineup with back stiffness.
Cards OF Chris Duncan has been placed on the DL with a bulging disc in his neck.
Reds SP Josh Fogg needed 30 stitches to repair damage done to his upper lip after being hit by a ball in batting practice.
Certainly, yesterday's most puzzling transaction was the Astros' decision to trade for Randy Wolf. The Astros are 12 games back of the Cubs and BP Postseason Odds gives them a .08% chance at making the playoffs, roughly 1 in 1220. R.J. Anderson of Beyond the Box Score is one of thousands who didn't like the move, but Astros beat writer Brian McTaggart defended it.
In other transactions, the Diamondbacks traded a prospect to the Nationals for Jon Rauch, meaning two of the tallest players in MLB history (along with Randy Johnson) are now on the same roster.
Here's a puzzling decision: Skyking162 has ranked the top 25 position players of right now. Well, really he's ranked the top 23 and given 18 more honorable mentions to get to 41. Here are some names on the list so far:
Evan Longoria, who has yet to finish his first big league season.
Brian Roberts
B.J. Upton
Mark Ellis
Rick Ankiel
Scott Rolen
David DeJesus
Aaron Rowand
Adrian Beltre
Yet somehow, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are nowhere to be found. With the possible exception of Longoria, there's not a single guy on that list who deserves to be ahead of Braun and Fielder. And Mark Ellis? That's a joke.
Francisco Rodriguez is threatening to become the first closer ever to reach 60 saves in a season. 6-4-2 has the math on what it will take for him to get there.
These seem to tie together nicely: In-Between Hops has a list of the greatest living players in the history of 29 franchises. Joe Posnanski takes a look at players who posted more than three "great" seasons in their careers.
If you're looking for a lesson on somewhat advanced statistics, this debate between Tangotiger and Geoff Baker is pretty instructive on the strengths, weaknesses and correct uses of ERA+.
Oh, and here's a hurricane prediction that's as accurate as any you'll see today.
Drink up.
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Monday's Frosty Mug Return
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score
When I left on my mini-sabbatical, Prince had 8 home runs. Since then he's hit 8 more, including the one pictured here. If I go back on sabbatical and he hits 8 more, I'll be tempted to retire.
Also pictured: The biggest accomplishment of Jeff Suppan's weekend.
Matt LaPorta missed a couple of games last week after running into the outfield wall, then returned for one day before leaving the team again to be with his ailing grandfather. Best wishes go out to him and his family.
I hadn't updated my projection spreadsheets in a while, so this morning I updated the data and noticed that Russell Branyan is on pace to hit 42 HR in just 296 official AB's this season. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs notes that Branyan was called up on the same day (May 25) to play the same position (#5 on your scorecard) as Ryan Braun circa 2007. The similiarities pretty much end there, but they're interesting nonetheless. If you're looking for analysis of Branyan's hot start, though, dixieflatline's post from Friday is the best I've seen.
Speaking of Branyan: Weeks ago I bookmarked a link about him, then promptly forgot about it and went on vacation. Remember that 460-foot home run he hit into the Dew Deck on May 31? SensibleUnits.com says 460 feet is equal to 44 male African elephants standing on top of one another, 7.8 ten pin bowling lanes, 2.8 Olympic swimming pools, or 1.8 Airbus A380s side by side. Check out the link to get more.
Sometimes Phil Rogers gets a bum rap, and sometimes he deserves it: In his most recent power poll he ranks the Brewers, owners of a 21-10 record in their last 31 games, 16th. Thankfully, the Hardball blog has a little feature at the bottom where you can rate their posts. I'd encourage you to go give him one star. Sadly, it's the lowest option available.
Even Eli acknowledges it's unlikely to become a story, but the Phillies reportedly had a scout in town to watch Ben Sheets recently.
Mark DiFelice is starting to climb up an interesting list: By making his first ten big league appearances without issuing a walk, Recondite Baseball notes that DiFelice has tied the eighth longest streak of all time to start a career. There's seven names you likely won't recognize on the all-time list in front of him. Still, though, it's a pretty nice claim to fame for a guy most of us never expected to get out of the minors in the first place. On injuries:
Marlins P Burke Badenhop has been placed on the DL with right shoulder tendinitis.
Erik Bedard left his start Friday with back spasms.
Adrian Beltre missed this weekend's action with a bruised index finger but could return as soon as today.
Reds SS Jolbert Cabrera injured his hand sliding into second Friday, making him the fourth Reds SS to get injured this season.
Pirates SP Phil Dumatrait has been placed on the DL with rotator cuff tendinitis.
Yankees RP Kyle Farnsworth left Sunday's game after being struck in the hand by a ground ball. He needed 3 stitches.
Cards SS Cesar Izturis is on the DL with a strained hamstring.
Reed Johnson is having back spasms and may have to go on the DL.
Rangers C Gerald Laird is on the DL with a strained hamstring.
Blue Jays SP Shaun Marcum has been placed on the DL with elbow soreness.
Rangers RP Doug Mathis has been placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
Pirates SP Ian Snell will have an arthrogram (a what?) today to determine the source of his right elbow irritation.
Red Sox RP Mike Timlin has been placed on the DL with tendinitis in his knee.
Jose Valentin has suffered multiple setbacks in his rehab and will be out for the season.
Carlos Zambrano's shoulder has landed him on the DL. They're still calling it precautionary.
Barry Zito isn't hurt, but The Giants Baseball Blog is bringing up the possibility of taking a drastic step and having him undergo Tommy John surgery anyway.
Comedy legend George Carlin passed away over the weekend. Here's one of his all-time great preformances, highlighting the differences between baseball and football.
Here's a performance that's not exactly an all-time great: After a nearly unprecedented 3 managerial firings in 4 days, Scott Miller of CBS Sports wants to make sure we know we shouldn't expect it again. I guess I thought that was implied when phrases like "nearly unprecedented" are being used.
It doesn't look like Rich Hill will be back to help the Cubs anytime soon. On Friday, he threw 45 pitches and only got two outs in AAA.
Are we still talking about free pitchers the Brewers may or may not be interested in as bullpen help? If we are, can I interest you in Kiko Calero or Denny Bautista?
Chipper Jones' chances of hitting .400 continue to lurk at about 1 in 5000.
If you're looking for summer reading material and my links in the Mug aren't long enough, you might consider picking up a book or two off of The Klaw 100. Speaking of books, I picked up "Shoeless Joe" after reading Jeff's post this spring on must-read baseball books, where he didn't actually recommend it. But I loved it and if you haven't read it, you should pick it up.
On a chance encounter this weekend I happened to meet "kindie" rock star Justin Roberts. I wasn't familiar with his work but after hearing him perform "Henrietta's Hair" and noting his new CD is titled "Pop Fly," I'd recommend him to anyone out there who has kids, and maybe even some of you who don't.
That's all for today. Drink up.
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