An off day is always a good time to practice thinking positive thoughts.

BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 79.2 and 8.2% to win the Central.

Yesterday's off day was also a pretty quiet one around the web. In fact, the biggest news is likely that there will be no news surrounding the closer's spot.

On closers, Eric Seidman at Fangraphs is working to develop a new stat that's more accurate than a pure save total. I like where he's going with it.

In his most recent "That's Debatable" at ESPN.com, Jerry Crasnick says the Brewers have too many pitching issues to overcome to be considered the top team in the NL Central.

Reportedly, the Mets are interested in Turnbow. Doug Melvin is sitting by the phone.

If you needed something disturbing to help you get through the day, here's Brian Shouse juxtaposed into classic art. Is juxtaposed the word I wanted? Perhaps I'm using it in the wrong situation...just like the Brewers use Shouse.

Here are the results from last week's Fan Opinion Poll:

• 52% of voters thought the Brewers made the right decision keeping Manny Parra on the roster and sending down Dave Bush. Of course, it's a moot point now.
• 70% of voters thought Mike Cameron should bat second. No other position got 10% of the vote.
• 52% thought Bill Hall should've swung away in the ninth inning of last Sunday's game. 43% favored the decision to bunt.
• 58% of voters were satisfied with the 13-pitcher roster. Also a moot point.
• Of those dissatisfied, 48% wanted more position players on the roster. Welcome back, Joe Dillon.
• Ned Yost's approval rating is down to 40%, with 32% disapproval and 26% unsure. He was at 47%/22%/29% last week.
• Doug Melvin's approval rating is up slightly, at 84%, with 4% disapproval and 10% unsure. He was at 83%/4%/11% last week.
• 97% of voters approve of the Cameron signing and position changes.
• 60% approve of the Gagne signing, with 17% disapproval. That's up from 47% approval last week.
• 34% of voters think the Brewers shouldn't offer Ben Sheets a new contract until after the season. 31% think the Brewers should offer him a contract now and 24% think they shouldn't offer him one at all.

Full results here. A new poll may be posted today. If you have suggestions for questions in this week's poll, I'd welcome them. Drop them in the comments.

On injuries:

Braves IF Martin Prado injured his thumb sliding into first base in a 14-7 game. He's out 6-8 weeks.
Mariners P Jarrod Washburn had to leave last night's start with tightness in his right calf.
Rockies P Kip Wells will require surgery to remove a blood clot in his right hand.

Non-Brewer related: We've been talking an awful lot in the comments lately about umpiring. The Book has an interesting post today on Angel Hernandez and how he skews umpiring statistics. I'd try to offer a better summary of it, but the more I read, the more confused I get.

That's all for today. Post your suggestions for linkage in tomorrow's Mug and/or suggested poll questions in the comments. Drink up.

There's nothing like a baseball game to make a long road trip seem shorter. Take yesterday, for example. I was just getting in the car in Kansas when the game started, I was pumping gas in Missouri when Mike Cameron hit the home run to make it 6-2, I was scrambling through my errands in Des Moines in the top of the 9th, and I still felt like I had just left home when I damn near drove off the road in the bottom of the 9th. I also have a sore spot on my forehead from banging it against the steering wheel near Iowa City in the 12th.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 79.3 wins and a 8.5% shot at the Central.

I probably don't need to tell you the obvious today, but Tom H. wants you to know Eric Gagne leads the league in blown saves.

Jim Powell also blogged from Houston, with one positive note: Ben Sheets should pass Teddy Higuera for first on the Brewers' all-time strikeout list Saturday.

Phil Rogers ranks the Brewers 20th in his most recent power poll.

Ken Rosenthal, via MLB Trade Rumors, says 4 teams are interested in Derrick Turnbow. The Rangers are not one of them.

The Cub Reporter continues their position-by-position look at the NL Central, and wants your vote. Here are the three that were posted since Saturday, with the TCR rankings:

Left Field: Ryan Braun 4th
Center Field: Mike Cameron 3rd
Right Field: Corey Hart 1st

On injuries:

Twins P Scott Baker left his start early and will have an MRI today on his injured groin.
Royals P John Bale was attacked by THE SPAZZOSAURUS!
Red Sox OF Brandon Moss had an emergency appendectomy Saturday night.
Dontrelle Willis suffered a setback in a minor league game in Toledo, has been called back from his rehab assignment.

Also, best wishes go out to Braves broadcaster Joe Simpson, who had an emergency appendectomy yesterday.

All of a sudden, posts like this one seem relevant here, too: U.S.S. Mariner takes a look at what it takes to work past a deficit and regain a division lead.

Finally, you may have known that Al Simmons hit more home runs than any other major leaguer born in Wisconsin, with 307. But can you name the leaders from all 49 other states, and the District of Columbia? If you can, that's sad. If you can't, Recondite Baseball has the list.

Drink up.

MLB's blackout policy just about led to a broken TV last night. I was excited for a Brewers/Cubs game on ESPN and had planned my evening around it. Unfortunately, being in the Brewers "home market" apparently means I'm not allowed to watch them. Because I'm in the home market, the game on ESPN was blacked out. BUT, because I'm in NE Iowa, not Wisconsin, I also don't get FSN Wisconsin. As it turns out, it sounds like I didn't miss much.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 82.5 wins and a 14.6% chance of winning the Central.

(Normally scheduled Mug starts in approximately eight paragraphs. Feel free to skip ahead.)

I've been doing my best to stay out of the blogger v. mainstream media debate, because I feel like there's a lot of hyperbole on both sides and, in all honesty, I'm more interested in continuing to do this job and entertain readers than argue about my own morality for daring to step into the world of writing without credentials. (By the way, I do have a journalism degree, if anyone would like to see it.) I intentionally avoided the clips from the most recent "Costas Now" until this morning, when a couple popped up in my daily reads.

After seeing Pulitzer Prize winning author Buzz Bissinger say, "blogs are dedicated to cruelty, they’re dedicated to journalistic dishonesty," I was tempted to write a paragraph to open today's Mug that really was dedicated to cruelty and journalistic dishonesty, involving a bodily orifice, an umbrella and an accusation that Bissinger might enjoy it. Instead, I found this post from Sam Mellinger's blog that's a little more reasonable.

Of course, it was only a matter of time before all of this came home to roost. My dad called this morning to make sure I'd seen Anthony Witrado's mailbag on the JS website. I hadn't. Adam of Milwaukee sent in the question that sparked the following exchange:

I'm glad Anthony doesn't think there's anything wrong with what we do. He certainly could've said worse, but he raises a point I've mentioned in conversation but never in this space before: I think the mainstream media is too close sometimes.

Certainly, Anthony, Tom H. Jim Powell, Brian Anderson and others have access to info we don't. Certainly, they'll always be useful as a source of information, and certainly their hard work is appreciated. I link to it multiple times daily. But they're also on the team plane. They're in the clubhouse. They're around the team more than their families sometimes. And that makes it really hard to be as honest as we can be on the web.

I don't want to question these guys' journalistic integrity, because I have no problem with any of them. But I will pose a question: Would it be harder for any of us to be honest in our criticism of Ned Yost, Doug Melvin or others if we had to ride on an airplane with them and work with them daily? I think it would. And I think honest criticism, the ability to speak our mind without having to think twice about who will object, and the ability to step back for perspective is what's occasionally missing from the mainstream media.

(Regularly scheduled Mug begins.)

Perhaps the most interesting storyline from last night's game was Derrick Turnbow's continued inability to get outs, even in a zero-pressure situation. This morning, Tom H. asks if Turnbow should be released. I think, if Bush cleared waivers to be sent down to Nashville, Turnbow would almost certainly clear too, especially after last night, and that may be the best thing for him.

Baseball Digest Daily notes some similarities in the substance suspensions and denials of Mike Cameron and Braves prospect Jordan Schafer, and wonders what it would mean if their denials were true.

Jim Powell, among others, notes a new Sports Illustrated survey ranking Miller Park second in all of baseball.

Over at The Hardball Times, Jeff takes a look at the Brewers brief run with a 14-man bullpen.

The Cub Reporter ranks J.J. Hardy as the second best shortstop in the Central, and wants your opinion on it as well.

On injuries:

Mike Hampton left his rehab start yesterday with pain in his pectoral muscle.
Yankees P Phil Hughes is on the DL with a mystery oblique strain.
Rangers P Jason Jennings left yesterday's start with an irritated nerve in his elbow and will be placed on the DL.
Troy Tulowitzki has been placed on the DL with a quad strain.

Also, umpire Jerry Crawford, who left Tuesday's game because he wasn't feeling well, has been released from the hospital. Apparently a bad reaction to medication was to blame.

On a former Brewer note: Just a few days removed from beating the Nashville Sounds on Sunday, Jorge de la Rosa is headed back to the big leagues with the Rockies.

Looking for work your nerdy friends will be jealous of? The Diamondbacks are hiring an Audio/Video Specialist. Yeah, it's a cheap joke, but I'm still pissed about the blogger v. mainstream media thing. I should've trusted my gut and stayed away from it.

Drink up.

To listen to the announcers last night and read the paper the last few days, you'd think that we left center field and the number two spot empty for the first 25 games, just waiting to get Mike Cameron back so that we could really start our season.

Cameron's a good player, and he's definitely better than the alternatives.  Yes, even Gabe Kapler.  But let's be reasonable and try to get a sense of how much Cameron is likely to help this team.

Oddly enough, one possible answer is: Not very much.

Granted, Kapler and Tony Gwynn probably played above their heads, but including last night's game (because I'm lazy), the aggregate center field line for the Brewers so far is 294/342/451.  That's pretty darn good for center field--in fact, it's as far above average for the position as any other position on the club.  (I know, that isn't saying much.)  Even more impressive when you consider it included 44 PAs of Gabe Gross's sub-300 SLG, and 1 PA of Hernan Iribarren's OPS of zero.

Click over to FanGraphs if you want to see a whole bunch of projections for Cameron.  My system of choice, ZiPS, gives Cameron a 254/341/447 line.  In other words, basically the same as we've gotten so far.

As I've said, we couldn't have expected the platoon (Kaplynn?) to keep producing at that level, but at the plate, Cameron is probably not going to give us a boost. 

If you want to compare Cameron's offense to what he is replacing on the '07 team, we'll have to look back at the glory days of the Menchkins platoon.  Hall and Braun are probably going to give us about what they gave us last year (more of Braun, but probably not quite so phenomenal), so on offense, Cameron steps in for the left fielders.

Last year, the two-headed monster gave us production of 261/318/453.  It's a little worse than the Cameron projections, but not enough to make a big difference.  So again, at the plate, acquiring Cameron is a wash.  (On the field, anyway; off the field, Cameron is cheaper than Menchkins was, uses one fewer roster spot, and doesn't require special hat orders.)

Of course, I've gotten an awful long ways into a discussion of Mike Cameron without touching on his defense.  I guess I saved the best for last.

As you all probably know, Cameron is an elite defender.  Defensive metrics make it hard to anoint a winner, but he is possibly the best center fielder in baseball.  According to RZR (leaders in 2007 , or 2006), he's among the top few in the league along with Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran, and Juan Pierre.  (RZR doesn't take outfield arms into effect.)

Another data point: according to MGL's proprietary Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) system, Cameron was among the top CFs from 2000-2003 , as well.  (You'll have to scroll down to find the CFs.)  In fact, in that span, he's the highest-rated player who was a regular for the better part of those four years.  I wouldn't put too much stock in 5-8 year old defensive data--guys slow down, even guys who take a lot of stimulants--but it shows that the 06-07 data is no fluke.

There's no good way to know whether Kapler and Gwynn would have been as good in the field as Cameron will be; we just won't accumulate the data.  (*Someone* might have play-by-play and hit location data for Gwynn's time in the minors, but *someone* is kind of lazy in crunching the numbers.) 

As I noted in my article about defense earlier this week, the outfield has been strong, and it seems like a good bet that Ryan Braun is not to blame for that.  So as the conventional wisdom would indicate, Kapler is a pretty good defensive center fielder, though almost certainly not in the same league as Cameron.

So...that's what we have to expect from our shiny new toy.  He's not our savior--there are a lot of other bats in the lineup that have to play that role right now--but he is a key part of the offseason plan that turned the Brewers into what is most likely a solid defensive team.

So, don't get me wrong, I'm excited for a win, but 3:40 for a nine-inning game? There's a lot of stuff I could've done in that time.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 85.2 wins and a 22.9% shot at the Central.

Today's interesting side note from BP Odds: A month into the season, BP has the Rays as the most likely playoff team from the AL East, at 42%. The Yankees and Red Sox are both down in the 30's.

Of course, last night's win was largely sparked by the return of Mike Cameron. The JS Blog has quotes from him afterwards.

After the game, Sheets also reported no pain, so hopefully last night was just a rough first day back and he'll be back to normal for the next one.

I have yet to see or hear a report on the condition of umpire Jerry Crawford, who left last night's game early. Most media outlets are just saying he wasn't feeling well, but Baseball Musings says he was complaining of chest pains.

There's no respectful way to transition from a story about chest pain to a story about Derrick Turnbow. There just isn't.

The Brewers are #12 in the latest Bugs and Cranks Power Rankings.

On Injuries:

Nats closer Chad Cordero is headed to the DL with a strained muscle in his shoulder.
Alex Rodriguez's quad injury finally landed him on the DL.
John Smoltz, currently on the DL, is contemplating making the unprecedented move from starter to closer to starter and back to the bullpen again.

If you go out for a walk today, try not to trip over a former Brewer looking for work: Chad Moeller, recently DFA'd by the Yankees, could join Raul Casanova on the Mets. The Orioles DFA'd Greg Aquino yesterday. And Ray King refused to report to AAA and has been released.

It's an annual ritual of spring: Ken Rosenthal seems to think Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey could be on the move soon. I'd be more likely to believe it if we didn't have this conversation every spring, and if the Reds hadn't just signed Cordero and Dusty Baker to win now. But, just like Bronson Arroyo, trade rumors swim in circles.

That's all I've got for today. As always, feel free to leave a comment if you have something to include in a future Mug. Drink up.

Got opinions? Go share them in this week's Fan Opinion Poll. Got half an hour or so to kill and want a quick recap of stuff from around the web? Grab your Frosty Mug.

BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 84.1 wins and a 20.2% shot at winning the NL Central.

With Ben Sheets returning to the mound and Mike Cameron making his Brewer debut, in Chicago against the Cubs, Tom H. wants to make sure you know today is kind of a big deal.

Thanks to reader Michael M who pointed out that The New York Times did a story on Prince's new eating habits. It's a New York Times story, so it displays all Wisconsinites as raw meat eating savages, but aside from that it's a good read.

The JS Blog notes that Prince hits more than his share of home runs at Wrigley, so this could be a good week for him.

Is Prince the best first baseman in the NL Central? The Cub Reporter wants to know. They're also asking about second basemen.

On injuries:

Hank Blalock has a torn hamstring and is out 3-4 weeks.
Troy Glaus is trying out some clear sunglasses to help him see the ball at night in St. Louis.
Alex Rodriguez has reinjured his quad and is out of the lineup for at least a few more days.
Grady Sizemore has been out since Saturday with a sprained ankle.
John Smoltz will miss his next start and may have to go on the DL with shoulder trouble.

Dusty Baker is drawn to grittiness, but apparently every now and then he incorrectly hears it: He reportedly thought Ryan Freel told him he didn't want to play everyday. That's like saying no to ice cream. Who does that?

As noted below in the minor league report, Nashville lost again last night to drop to 5-18. How long do we give them before we start worrying about the fact that our top minor league affiliate is terrible?

Baseball Happenings has posted the results from this week's Blogpoll for NL MVP. Chase Utley won overwhelmingly, as he probably should.

Baseball Musings asks if the Reds wasted money on Francisco Cordero. He's 4-for-4 in save opportunities, but the Reds have only managed to get him 4 opportunities in 25 games. Speaking of wasted money, the Giants are sending Barry Zito to the bullpen.

Carlos Quentin of the White Sox has been hit by a pitch with the bases loaded 3 times in April. That ties the MLB single season record.

Some days the stars align and everyone's talking about the same thing: Scott Adams, of Dilbert fame, attended a game over the weekend and didn't enjoy the experience. Stephen Dubner, the author of Freakonomics, blogged yesterday about ways to make the game more interesting. Sabernomics picked up on that and added a few suggestions of their own, including one that should've been adopted years ago: eliminate arguing. Confrontational umpires are one of my biggest pet peeves in baseball, so I'd welcome some kind of movement to remind them that no one paid to see them yell back at a manager/player. Baseball is the only sport I'm aware of that tolerates it.

I don't typically read Cardboard Gods, but I'm glad I followed a link there yesterday to catch this post, which is as profound as anything I've read in a long time.

That's all for today. Drink up.

Many aspects of the 2008 Milwaukee Brewers are different from that of the '07 club, but the one that may end up having the biggest impact on the bottom line is the defensive realignment.  Since we have a day off (it's like a gift of three hours back in my life!) I thought I'd look at the issue from a variety of angles.

First, let's just think about what we've seen.  Four of the eight defensive positions are manned by the same folks who played there last year.  Of those, Hardy is solid, Hart is probably average with a plus arm, while Prince and Rickie are below average.  The only real change from last year is that I think Rickie is a little better--still making spectacular plays, still making mistakes on relatively easy plays, but doing the good things more often and the bad things less often.

The other four spots are big changes:

• Catcher: Kendall appears to be a huge improvement.  Maybe he'll stop being effective gunning down runners, but I can't even imagine anyone arguing that Kendall isn't a net plus in the field over Estrada.
• Third base: Bill Hall looks great.  I don't know whether he'll turn out to be above average, but if he's average, that's a massive gain over last year.
• Left field: I'm not sold on Braun being all that good, or even having the potential to be all that good out there, but at the same time, he's clearly not all that bad.  It isn't like sticking Jack Cust or Manny out there.  Regardless, it's a step down from Jenkins, and probably a big one, but not enough to offset the advantage of getting Braun off of third.
• Center field: I really wanted Hall to succeed in center last year, but it's pretty clear that he didn't.  We've already had three center fielders this year who looked better than Hall did at the position, and Mike Cameron hasn't played an inning yet.  This is a step up, and it's likely to get bigger.

Of course, you knew I wasn't going to stop there.  25 games is not really enough to do any serious statistical analysis of defense, but let's see what the numbers say anyway.

A good starting point for team defense is defensive efficiency, which is the fraction of batted balls that turn into outs.  Last year, the Brewers had a DefEff of .674, 14th out of 16 NL teams.  (Only the Rats and Fish were worse.)  This year we're at .711, 6th in the league.  You can always find DefEff in the "Miscellaneous Stats" section of Baseball-Reference's league pages .

Just doing some back-of-the-envelope calculations, I think that every .001 of DefEff is worth about 3 runs.  (I'm figuring .001 represents about 5 more batted balls turned into outs; if they are all fly balls, it's more like 4 or 5 runs; if they are grounders, it's 2-2.5.)  Viewed in this light, a DefEff increase of .037 would be astonishing: that's an improvement of over 100 runs, or about 10 wins.

That probably won't hold up over the course of the season, but even half that would be impressive.  It could also be partially attributable to the pitching, if they get more ground balls and infield flies.

Another place to look for defense indicators is the new-for-2008 Hardball Times Team Page.  Here are some of the things we can glean from today's report (it's updated daily):

• A fielding plus/minus of -1 suggests that we're about average.  I'll take it.
• We're near the bottom in RZR (the percent of "in zone" balls that are successfully fielded), but second best in the league at getting outs on balls out of zone.  That seems plausible to me: There have been plenty of great plays so far, but still our share of missed opportunities.
• The infield/outfield split is dramatic.  We're near the bottom as an infield, but 5th best as an outfield.  Cameron's return may help that go even higher.
• We're nearly best in the league in errors, and by far the best in the league in unearned runs.  (Since unearned runs are based in large part on errors, it's no surprise that those two go hand in hand.)  If you haven't noticed by now, I don't put a lot of stock in traditional fielding metrics such as errors and fielding percentage, because they are based on the subjective judgments of scorers.

That's probably enough for today.  It'll take many more games before we can make any kind of confident assessment of team defense this year, but even if we go with the more pessimistic view (represented by RZR), that the Brewers are roughly an average defensive team, that's a huge score for the good guys.  It's a testament to Melvin's offseason juggling, as well as the flexibility of Bill Hall and Ryan Braun.

I think I got a little too much frustration yesterday. Saturday night, the cruise control on my car went out about 350 miles from home. Narveson had a no-hitter going through 3 innings in Omaha yesterday before I jinxed it and he gave up the game-winning run in the 4th. Mike Cameron is jogging out his ground balls in AAA in a way that would make Johnny Estrada jealous. Omaha walked the bases loaded in the seventh, but Brad Nelson saw fit to swing and miss at 3 straight pitches to end the inning anyway.

Then I got back in the car and heard the last 3 innings of yesterday's game. One strategic note still irks me:

Craig Counsell walked in the 9th, which was great. So now we've got Bill Hall up, fresh off a seventh inning home run. Am I the only one who screamed when they told him to bunt? I know he's a big risk to strike out, but the pitcher can't find the strike zone and we handed them an out anyway. Advancing the runner via the sacrifice actually brought the win expectancy down, and was made completely irrelevant when Weeks walked too. Did this drive anyone else nuts? I had 300 more miles in the car to think about it, and it's still bugging me.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds have us at 84 wins and 19.7% to win the Central.

So Dave Bush has been sent to AAA to make room on the roster for Mike Cameron. Brewers Bar thinks Parra should've gone down instead. In-Between Hops says the buzz about Parra's inability to pitch deep into games is overblown and based on pitch counts. Today I have a new Fan Opinion Poll. I'm curious to hear what people think about this one. Results from last week's poll are below.

Adam Charles at Bugs and Cranks is using his excitement about the Cubs series to forget that the Brewers just lost to Wes Helms.

With the 16th pick in the first round, the Milwaukee Brewers selected Christian Friedrich, a LHP from Eastern Kentucky, in Minor League Ball's mock draft.

Phil Rogers ranked the Brewers 16th in his most recent power rankings, behind 3 NL Central teams. The Southpaw ranks them 8th and does a better job of including some eye candy with the rankings.

Speaking of rankings, Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun Times rated Miller Park 25th. I'll admit I haven't been to all (or even most) major league parks, and I'm not Miller Park's biggest fan, but I find 25th hard to believe.

On injuries:

Moises Alou may have broken his ankle in rehab.
Jorge Posada has a torn muscle in his rotator cuff.
John Smoltz left yesterday's start with discomfort in his shoulder.

No one's calling it an injury, but there does seem to be some concern and difference of opinion regarding Brett Myers' struggles to regain velocity.

No one, though, will doubt Joel Pineiro's flexibility.

Here are the results from last week's Fan Opinion Poll, with a record 168 votes:

• 48% of voters thought the Brewers should have 12 pitchers on their roster. 44% voted for 13.
• 25% of voters thought Derrick Turnbow should be the pitcher to go. 18% voted for Mitch Stetter and Seth McClung, 16% voted for Dave Bush and 15% voted for Manny Parra.
• 96% of voters thought Yovani Gallardo was brought back at just the right time.
• 69% of voters thought 3 consecutive days should be the limit for Eric Gagne.
• 36% of voters thought Ben Sheets will miss five to ten starts this season. 35% thought he will miss three to five.
• Ned Yost's approval rating is at 47%, with 22% disapproval and 29% unsure. He was at 78%/8%/12% last week.
• Doug Melvin's approval rating is at 83%, with 4% disapproval and 11% unsure. He was at 97%/0%/2% last week.
• 94% of voters approved of the Cameron/Hall/Braun move.
• 47% of voters approved of the decision to sign Eric Gagne, down from 61% last week.
• 30% of voters thought the Brewers shouldn't offer Ben Sheets a contract until after the season. 29% think they should do it now, and 25% think they shouldn't do it at all.

Full results here.

To cast your vote in this week's poll, Click here. Last week's poll set a turnout record for the third straight week. Thanks to everyone who helped promote it, and if you can help us out this week, please do so.

That's all for today. Drink up.

Happy Patriot Day, Brewer fans. I've been away from the TV, radio and computer for most of the last 3 days, but coming home today I see that the Brewers took two of three and should've swept the Reds, and open today's series with the Cardinals a game back of first place. It's time for a Frosty Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
ESPN Video Highlights
Baseball Digest Daily recaps
BP Postseason odds projecting the Brewers for 84 wins and a 23.6% shot at winning the Central.

Let's talk about Ben Sheets for a moment. The team says Sheets will only have to push his next start back a day. That doesn't seem serious, but at the same time, they've gone up to 14 pitchers on the roster just to make sure they have enough to cover the delay. Jim Powell also says Sheets is feeling better. I'm not entirely sure how keeping a guy like Mitch Stetter on the roster would fix the problem, even if he wasn't.

Inside the Book asks if teams overvalue guys with great stuff but questionable control. Since we seem to be having occasional debates lately about the value of Derrick Turnbow, I thought this belonged in the top half of the Mug.

Brian Shouse's streak of 83 consecutive appearances without allowing a home run was the 14th longest all time.

If you thought everyone loved Paul Molitor, it turns out it's only almost everyone.

Thanks to all 142 of you who voted in last week's fan opinion poll. The results:

• 74% of voters thought Dave Bush should move to the bullpen in place of Seth McClung when Gallardo returned.
• 45% of voters thought Eric Gagne's position as closer should be re-evaluated at the end of April. 32% thought he should be re-evaluated at the All Star Break and 21% think he's the closer indefinitely.
• 82% of voters thought Prince Fielder's slow start had nothing to do with becoming a vegetarian.
• 66% of voters thought the Brewers should make an effort to limit Manny Parra's innings.
• Of those voters, 68% thought it should be done by skipping his spot in the rotation when possible.
• Ned Yost's approval rating is at 78%, up from 77% last week, with 8% disapproval and 12% unsure.
• Doug Melvin's approval rating is at 97%, with one lone no vote and 2% unsure. Last week he was at 91%/5%/2%
• 96% of voters were in favor of the Cameron/Hall/Braun move.
• 61% of voters were in favor of the Gagne signing, with 17% opposed and 21% unsure.
• 35% of voters thought the team should offer Ben Sheets a long-term deal, with 29% wanting to wait until after the season, 19% opposed and 16% unsure.

Full results here. I'm hoping to write this week's poll today and post it later or tomorrow. If you have questions you'd like to see included, drop them in the comments.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Doug Davis is recovering well from surgery and throwing off flat ground. He could return in May.
Kosuke Fukudome missed last night's game with a cyst above his right eye, but should play today.
Chipper Jones was pulled from yesterday's game with a quad injury.
Alex Rodriguez was also pulled from yesterday's game with a quad injury.
Jimmy Rollins has been placed on the DL, but since he pinch-hit Saturday, he's not eligible to be placed retroactively.
David Weathers has been placed on the DL with nerve inflammation in his elbow.

Frank Thomas was released rather abruptly yesterday. Obviously, this will lead to lots of speculation about who he could help, but Landon Evanson at Bugs and Cranks likes him as a Twin.

This would be a much better reason to be cursed: Historical evidence suggests the Cubs may have thrown the 1918 World Series.

Now available: Hideo Nomo. Potentially available May 1: Bartolo Colon.

Bucs Dugout's tournament to determine the worst GM in baseball has moved on to the second round. Voting is open for the first matchup, Jon Daniels v. Bill Bavasi.

And while you're voting, go here as well and help me fill out my AL awards ballots. Thanks!

Drink up.

Yesterday, Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus wrote his column about the Brewers.  Specifically, he focused on the right-handedness of the team (basically, everybody with power except for Prince) and how that probably isn't a good thing.  Last year, the Crew had an OPS of 859 against lefties and 755 against righties, and that was with Jenkins in the lineup.

So far this year, it's much more dramatic, though some of that is probably due to small sample size.  (We're not going to OPS 966 against lefties for the entire season, unfortunately.  Unless they start cloning Barry Zito, anyway.)

Sheehan notes that the return of Mike Cameron is going to make things worse.  He also suggests that teams with mediocre lefties will consider shifting their rotations to avoid unnecessary lefty vs. Brewers matchups.  Fair enough.

What we're missing here is some context.  Sheehan doesn't come out and say it, but he wouldn't write the article if this were just an interesting factoid: The strong suggestion is that this is a problem.  I don't know that it is or it isn't; a balanced lineup might be ideal, but is this the sort of thing that's going to keep the Brewers from the playoffs?  Should Doug Melvin be calling any and all available lefthanded power hitters?

I would like to do a quick query of all NL teams and find out if any successful teams have had platoon splits of 100 or more points of OPS.  (TheJay, your agent is calling...)  Barring that, let's run some numbers and see what we can turn up.

What's the potential impact?

First, some assumptions.  Last year, the difference was 104 points of OPS; Sheehan gives good reasons why that may increase this year.  Let's say it's 130 points in 2008.  Further, let's say that the Brewers offense is exactly as good it was last year, so figuring roughly three times as many ABs vs. righties, that's an 877 OPS vs. lefties and 747 vs. righties.

If opposing teams make the same decisions (who starts, who relievers) as they did last year, almost exactly 75% of ABs will come against righties.  That's about normal.  If that happens, using the assumptions above and the simple version of Runs Created (OBP*TB), the Brewers are set for about 826 runs.  (Incidentally, the Crew underperformed their simple Runs Created last year; I don't know if there's a good reason for it or if it's just luck.  Also, I'm figuring the OBP/SLG breakdown is the same as it was last year.)

Of course, the more ABs against righties, the worse.  Here are the results, using simple RC over an entire season, for several possibilities:

• 70% vRHP: 840 runs
• 75% vRHP: 826 runs
• 80% vRHP: 812 runs
• 85% vRHP: 797 runs
• 90% vRHP: 783 runs
• 95% vRHP: 769 runs

Comparing 70% to 95%, that's pretty dramatic.  But hold up.  Anything beyond 80% vRHP is probably not going to happen.  75% is normal, and it's not like opposing teams are going to make major roster adjustments just to deal with the lefty-mashingness of the Milwaukee Brewers.

There's only so much they can do

For one thing, bullpens aren't likely to change.  We might see a little less of situational lefties, because there are fewer lefties in the lineup to face, but most teams only have one or two, and they'll be brought in to face Prince just about as often as they were last year.

Further, most starter choices aren't going to change.  The good lefties (Santana, Hamels, Lilly, Hill) aren't going to be bumped from their regular rotation spots, and for much of the season, it would take a roster move to adjust the rotation very much.  If the Pirates want to go with a Triple-A righty or a mop-up guy instead of Paul Maholm, bring it on.  (Not that I think they will.)  Enough rotation shifts like that, and any disadvantage of facing a righty will be outweighed by the advantage of facing somebody who doesn't belong in the rotation in the first place.

Every 5% represents a little less than 300 ABs.  That's a way bigger adjustment than a few rotation juggles are likely to make.  Think of this way.  If the average starter goes 6 innings and gives up about one hit per inning, that's 24 ABs.  So 300 ABs is about 13 starts by righties that would otherwise have been made by lefties, or about one every other week during the regular season.  Not gonna happen, not even close.

I would guess that if teams make adjustments to their rotations, we might see 5 or 6 more righties instead of lefties.  Figure we'll see LOOGYs a bit less, and you've got 150 more ABs against righties than usual, bumping the vRHP up to 77% or 78%.  Total cost to the Brewers: about 7 runs.

If you only read a little bit, read this:

Here's the point.  In a perfect world, we'd have a balanced lineup.  But even if our opponents take advantage of our unbalanced lineup, it'll cost us about one win over the course of the season.  Keep in mind that fixing the problem would never have been free.  If we had tried to get another lefty, we might have gotten a worse defender, or had less money to spend on the bullpen.

Much will be made of the right-handedness of the Brewers lineup, and the platoon splits that will emerge.  There will be days when a righty shuts down the Crew, and this will be the reason given.  Maybe so, but the Brewers are decent offensive team against righthanders, they'll win plenty of games against RH starters, and they'll win a even higher percentage of games against lefties.

The logic of the situation won't convince people not to talk about it, but I hope it will convince you not to take it seriously.