So I'll admit it: I was thinking sweep after Monday's game. It was a trap.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score

After the game, Astros beat writer Brian McTaggart had this to say: Geoff Blum is hitting .229/.269/.419 with 12 HR. Rickie Weeks, for comparison purposes, is hitting .229/.331/.381 with 10 HR. We complain an awful lot about Tom H. around here, but wow...even he wouldn't have said something like that.

Brewer management is still playing defense after leaving CC Sabathia in to throw 130 pitches Monday. Ned says it's ok because Sabathia only averages 13.7 pitches per inning. That's a "math is still on our side" moment if I've ever seen one. Ken Rosenthal got some similar quotes from Doug Melvin.

Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron compares Sabathia to the greatest mid-season pitching acquisitions of all time. Dugout Central and Rob Neyer both make a case for him to win NL MVP.

Corey Hart needs to hit one home run to be the first Brewer ever to finish with 20 HR and 20 steals more than once. Does it surprise anyone else that it's never happened twice? It surprised me.

Between this catch last night and this one Saturday, Gabe Kapler is giving me a reason to scroll through the Yahoo photos that doesn't involve searching for untucked shirts.

Ben Sheets ERA for August is up over 4. In-Between Hops notes that Sheets had a similar stretch in 2004, and it's probably nothing to worry about.

Power Rankings, quickly:
Whatifsports: Second, behind the Cubs.
Bugs and Cranks: Seventh.
Whisnant Rankings: Ninth.

Between the Green Pillars has made a list of four things to watch for the Brewers down the stretch. Let me summarize them for you:

1. Health
2. Health
3. Bullpen
4. Someone needs to get hot.

Tomorrow, we apply these needs to every other playoff team.

On injuries:

Josh Beckett's next start has been pushed back 3 days while doctors try to find the source of numbness in his pitching hand.
Braves IF Ruben Gotay has been placed on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Jason Isringhausen is likely out for the season with elbow tendinitis and a partially torn tendon.
O's closer George Sherrill is on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
Billy Wagner's elbow isn't getting any better and he's likely done for the year.

So, let's say for a moment you're a Reds fan. You signed Francisco Cordero before the season, hired Dusty Baker to manage and showed all the signs of "going for it." Then, you underperformed, cleaned house in the front office, traded away Ken Griffey and Adam Dunn, and now it doesn't look like you'll be any better in 2009. Is one letter to season ticket holders really going to make you feel better? Me either.

Oh, and the Cardinals season really must be over, because Cardinals Diaspora is talking about The Hills. Seriously.

Drink up.

So now it's eight in a row, the longest undefeated road trip since 1999, and three come from behind wins in four days. Still, drink with cautious optimism.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score

Jim Powell says the Brewers are coming home off of The Greatest Road Trip Ever.

Doug Melvin says he's not interested in acquiring George Sherrill. Did he say it before or after reading Jeff's post on the subject? We may never know.

On injuries:

Erik Bedard has an internal impingement in his shoulder. There's no structural damage but it could lead to some.
Kerry Wood finally hit the DL with his blister problems, but will be eligible to return Tuesday.

This is the problem with the lack of transparency Major League Baseball shows at times: Bud Selig fined the Cubs $500,000 for "violations involving the draft" but never specified exactly what the Cubs did wrong. Then, the Cubs removed Selig friend (and Brewer part-owner) John Canning from the list of candidates to purchase the team. Now Ivy Chat, among others, is suggesting the Cubs are being punished for eliminating Canning from the running. Is this likely the case? No. Will suspicions like this continue to come up until MLB does a better job of conducting business in the sunlight? Absolutely.

Bronson Arroyo would rather stay in Cincinnati than go play for a contender, and he's publicly calling out the Reds' management to keep him. I don't ever recall seeing a player publicly ask to stay on a losing team.

Of course, Johnny Estrada won't get that option: the Nats DFA'd him yesterday.

Jimmy Rollins was a late scratch from last night's Phillies game, because he was also late to the ballpark.

This one surprised me in a big way: DRaysBay is conducting a poll and 66% of the 171 participating voters think the Rays should sign Barry Bonds.

Oh, and I didn't think I'd like a story involving a Padres fan, a cute girl and hot sauce, but this is pretty funny.

Drink up. The Mug is off for the weekend but returns Monday.

According to the Baltimore Sun, the Brewers and the Cardinals are "the two most aggressive suitors for Orioles closer George Sherrill."  It stands to reason that Melvin would like Sherrill...but it would've made more sense a year ago, when Doug could've acquired him for the more typical bargain-basement price.

The last time I wrote about Sherrill, it was because of his (undeserving) inclusion on the All-Star team.  If you measure reliever quality by saves (now that its inventor is dead--RIP Mr. Holtzman--can we kill the stat, too?), Sherrill is probably the best reliever available at the deadline.

By contrast, if you measure reliever quality by "likelihood he'll be better than Guillermo Mota in the second half," Sherrill falls quite a ways down the list.  (Granted, he's still up there, and of course yes, he'd be an improvement on Mota.)

His quick-and-dirty Marcel projection for the rest of the season suggests he'd throw 25 innings, striking out 24 and walking 11.  That would be good for a WHIP of 1.34 and an ERA of 3.76.  In other words, this is a guy who would probably improve our bullpen (especially since he's a lefty), but is not worth getting into a July 30th bidding war over.

Another way of looking at reliever effectiveness is WXRL, a Baseball Prospectus stat that tries to estimate how many wins the pitcher is worth using play-by-play stats such as win expectancy.  For reference, Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan, K-Rod, and Mariano Rivera are at the top of the list.  (With Brian Wilson?  Whoa!)  Salomon Torres checks in at #11.

So I scrolled down the first page of results, then the second page, then the third...and there he is!  By WXRL, Sherrill is the 76th best reliever in baseball this year, behind such big names as Matt Guerrier, Ryan Madson, and Ramon Ramirez, and way behind his teammate Jim Johnson.  He's been worth under one win so far this season, suggesting that in August and September, he'd be worth about half that.

As I said, I don't doubt that Sherrill would improve the pen.  But as always, the question is: At what price?  We have a good comp that you're probably familiar with.  Last year, a certain Central division contender swapped three pitching prospects for a set-up man.  Linebrink wasn't nearly as expensive as, say, Sabathia or Harden, but I think that the Linebrink deal suggests the starting bid for Sherrill.

One reason why is the save total.  Sherrill's a "proven closer," and it's possible that a team like the Cardinals with a floundering bullpen would pay for that.  The bigger reason why is that Sherrill will be under team control through 2011.  He was arbitration-eligible this year, because he was a super-two, but whoever acquires him will have him for three more years. 

If we were talking about Huston Street, that'd be one thing (though Brewers scouts aren't too excited about him, apparently).  But Sherrill is a solid 7th- or 8th-inning guy who has fluked his way into 29 saves at age 31.  He may be a productive pitcher for years to come, but think Bob Howry, not Billy Wagner.

What's more, the Orioles aren't known for being an easy club to deal with.  Because Sherrill is making under $1MM and will be under team control for so much longer, they don't need to deal him.  Someone will overpay or the Orioles will keep him.   Pass.

Maybe I'm just bitter that some other team picked up Jon Rauch--just as good a pitcher as Sherrill, one with nearly as favorable contract status--for pennies on the dollar.  Hey, if we can get Sherrill for Tony Gwynn Jr. or Hernan Iribarren (either of whom look about the same to me as Emilio Bonfiacio, who the D-backs traded for Rauch), bring it on.  But I'm pretty sure we can't.

The rules governing All-Star Game roster construction have changed over the years, but one thing has been constant for quite some time: Every team must have at least one representative on the team.  Naturally, this makes for some undeserving selections now and then.

There are plenty of examples, but in recent years, my favorite has been the 2006 selection of Mark Redman.  (I've been fascinated with Redman for a while now--see this article from March 2007.)  In browsing through some ASG history yesterday, I came across another galling Royals pick--Jose Rosado, who made the team twice in four-and-a-half year career.  Seriously--he was an All-Star twice in the late '90s, and I barely remember the guy.

Of course, the Brewers weren't a good team for quite a long time, and one member of the team needed to be selected every year between the Molitor/Yount era and the Ben Sheets era.  In fact, the Brewers had only one All-Star thirteen years in a row, from 1989 to 2001, including such luminaries as Kevin Seitzer, Ricky Bones, and Fernando Vina.

Looking over this year's All-Star rosters, one can find a few picks of this sort, but they are few and far between.  I don't know what it says about parity--even bad teams ought to have one good player, right?--but it is encouraging that we'll see close to 18 half-innings of good pitching.

Here are a few of the 2008 All-Star selections that might raise eyebrows:

• Cristian Guzman.  He's having a career year, but even his empty .313 batting average leaves him with a 102 OPS+, far behind guys like Jose Reyes and JJ Hardy.  Actually, the Nats aren't that hard up--either John Lannan or Jon Rauch would've made for a credible selection.
• Brian Wilson.  This one baffles me.  At first, I thought, "Yeah, of course the Giants are sending a lame All-Star."  But of course, the Giants are also sending Tim Lincecum.  Wilson has 25 saves with a WHIP over 1.5.  He's racking up the numbers because the Giants offense never scores enough runs to amass anything bigger than a 3-run lead.
• George Sherrill.  He's the Wilson of the AL.  He's got 28 saves, which makes him the easy choice as a token team rep, but he's not even the best (or second-best) choice from the bullpen.  Brian Roberts probably deserved the spot more than Sherrill, too.
• Miguel Tejada.  This, like the Wilson pick, is just weird.  Lance Berkman is a no-questions-asked starter, so there's no need for Tejada on the team, and Miggy's performance certainly hasn't earned him the trip.  Tejada has been out-hit by Guzman (his OPS+ is 95), meaning that he's less deserving than someone who really isn't very deserving.  Jose Reyes should be ticked.  Heck, even Ryan Theriot should be ticked.  At least he's not a lying druggie with no range.
  

Such a list wouldn't be complete without Derek Jeter (740 OPS with crappy defense!) and Jason Varitek (299 OPS!), but the fans and the players (I presume) are to blame for those. 

In other words, the one-player-per-team rule didn't bite too hard this year.  Really, Guzman and Sherrill are the only guys who snuck in under that rule, and either one could've been replaced by a better option (if not a slam-dunk All-Star, in the case of the Nats) without wreaking too much havoc on the roster.