Monday: Dave Bush quality start.

Tuesday: Carlos Villanueva quality start.

I don't dare suggest what might follow.

Tonight the matchup is Manny Parra and Derek Lowe.  Speaking of matchups, the BR Game Preview tells us something harrowing: Andruw Jones has a career 1.750 OPS against Gagne.  Apparently things could've worked out a little differently.

If Yost decides to play with his LaRussa-style index cards, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Counsell start tonight--he's got an .873 OPS in 26 career PAs against Lowe.

Game time is 7:05 Central.

Go Brewers!

We're not 24-10.  But hey, neither are the Cardinals!

If you go back through the game threads I've posted for Brewers/Cards games over the last year or so, you'll find a lot of comments to the effect of, "There's no way this converted reliever is this good."  I am officially done making such comments.  I still kind of believe it, but...I don't know.  Dave Duncan: You win this round.

Todd Wellemeyer, one of the many guys who should probably tithe 50% of his future earnings to the Church of Duncan, starts for the Cards against Manny Parra, who right now isn't convincing me he's going to have much in the way of future earnings.

The lineup is back to normal, and you can see all the matchups in the BR Game Preview.

Go Brewers!

An off day is always a good time to practice thinking positive thoughts.

BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 79.2 and 8.2% to win the Central.

Yesterday's off day was also a pretty quiet one around the web. In fact, the biggest news is likely that there will be no news surrounding the closer's spot.

On closers, Eric Seidman at Fangraphs is working to develop a new stat that's more accurate than a pure save total. I like where he's going with it.

In his most recent "That's Debatable" at ESPN.com, Jerry Crasnick says the Brewers have too many pitching issues to overcome to be considered the top team in the NL Central.

Reportedly, the Mets are interested in Turnbow. Doug Melvin is sitting by the phone.

If you needed something disturbing to help you get through the day, here's Brian Shouse juxtaposed into classic art. Is juxtaposed the word I wanted? Perhaps I'm using it in the wrong situation...just like the Brewers use Shouse.

Here are the results from last week's Fan Opinion Poll:

• 52% of voters thought the Brewers made the right decision keeping Manny Parra on the roster and sending down Dave Bush. Of course, it's a moot point now.
• 70% of voters thought Mike Cameron should bat second. No other position got 10% of the vote.
• 52% thought Bill Hall should've swung away in the ninth inning of last Sunday's game. 43% favored the decision to bunt.
• 58% of voters were satisfied with the 13-pitcher roster. Also a moot point.
• Of those dissatisfied, 48% wanted more position players on the roster. Welcome back, Joe Dillon.
• Ned Yost's approval rating is down to 40%, with 32% disapproval and 26% unsure. He was at 47%/22%/29% last week.
• Doug Melvin's approval rating is up slightly, at 84%, with 4% disapproval and 10% unsure. He was at 83%/4%/11% last week.
• 97% of voters approve of the Cameron signing and position changes.
• 60% approve of the Gagne signing, with 17% disapproval. That's up from 47% approval last week.
• 34% of voters think the Brewers shouldn't offer Ben Sheets a new contract until after the season. 31% think the Brewers should offer him a contract now and 24% think they shouldn't offer him one at all.

Full results here. A new poll may be posted today. If you have suggestions for questions in this week's poll, I'd welcome them. Drop them in the comments.

On injuries:

Braves IF Martin Prado injured his thumb sliding into first base in a 14-7 game. He's out 6-8 weeks.
Mariners P Jarrod Washburn had to leave last night's start with tightness in his right calf.
Rockies P Kip Wells will require surgery to remove a blood clot in his right hand.

Non-Brewer related: We've been talking an awful lot in the comments lately about umpiring. The Book has an interesting post today on Angel Hernandez and how he skews umpiring statistics. I'd try to offer a better summary of it, but the more I read, the more confused I get.

That's all for today. Post your suggestions for linkage in tomorrow's Mug and/or suggested poll questions in the comments. Drink up.

With the short left-field porch at Minute Maid, tonight was supposed to be the night when the righties teed off on the Brewers (left-handed) starting pitcher.  We got that out of the way yesterday, so I think Parra is set up for a great outing.  Brandon Backe will try to contain the Brewers offense, but we're just too gritty.

Game time is 6:05 CT.  Here's the BR Game Preview.  Also, check out this hilarious post at the SBN Twins site.

Project-a-tron has tonight as an absolute dead heat: 49.95% chance of the Brewers winning.  Mr. Tron, however, is not aware of grit, dwarf or otherwise.

Go Brewers!

I think I got a little too much frustration yesterday. Saturday night, the cruise control on my car went out about 350 miles from home. Narveson had a no-hitter going through 3 innings in Omaha yesterday before I jinxed it and he gave up the game-winning run in the 4th. Mike Cameron is jogging out his ground balls in AAA in a way that would make Johnny Estrada jealous. Omaha walked the bases loaded in the seventh, but Brad Nelson saw fit to swing and miss at 3 straight pitches to end the inning anyway.

Then I got back in the car and heard the last 3 innings of yesterday's game. One strategic note still irks me:

Craig Counsell walked in the 9th, which was great. So now we've got Bill Hall up, fresh off a seventh inning home run. Am I the only one who screamed when they told him to bunt? I know he's a big risk to strike out, but the pitcher can't find the strike zone and we handed them an out anyway. Advancing the runner via the sacrifice actually brought the win expectancy down, and was made completely irrelevant when Weeks walked too. Did this drive anyone else nuts? I had 300 more miles in the car to think about it, and it's still bugging me.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds have us at 84 wins and 19.7% to win the Central.

So Dave Bush has been sent to AAA to make room on the roster for Mike Cameron. Brewers Bar thinks Parra should've gone down instead. In-Between Hops says the buzz about Parra's inability to pitch deep into games is overblown and based on pitch counts. Today I have a new Fan Opinion Poll. I'm curious to hear what people think about this one. Results from last week's poll are below.

Adam Charles at Bugs and Cranks is using his excitement about the Cubs series to forget that the Brewers just lost to Wes Helms.

With the 16th pick in the first round, the Milwaukee Brewers selected Christian Friedrich, a LHP from Eastern Kentucky, in Minor League Ball's mock draft.

Phil Rogers ranked the Brewers 16th in his most recent power rankings, behind 3 NL Central teams. The Southpaw ranks them 8th and does a better job of including some eye candy with the rankings.

Speaking of rankings, Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun Times rated Miller Park 25th. I'll admit I haven't been to all (or even most) major league parks, and I'm not Miller Park's biggest fan, but I find 25th hard to believe.

On injuries:

Moises Alou may have broken his ankle in rehab.
Jorge Posada has a torn muscle in his rotator cuff.
John Smoltz left yesterday's start with discomfort in his shoulder.

No one's calling it an injury, but there does seem to be some concern and difference of opinion regarding Brett Myers' struggles to regain velocity.

No one, though, will doubt Joel Pineiro's flexibility.

Here are the results from last week's Fan Opinion Poll, with a record 168 votes:

• 48% of voters thought the Brewers should have 12 pitchers on their roster. 44% voted for 13.
• 25% of voters thought Derrick Turnbow should be the pitcher to go. 18% voted for Mitch Stetter and Seth McClung, 16% voted for Dave Bush and 15% voted for Manny Parra.
• 96% of voters thought Yovani Gallardo was brought back at just the right time.
• 69% of voters thought 3 consecutive days should be the limit for Eric Gagne.
• 36% of voters thought Ben Sheets will miss five to ten starts this season. 35% thought he will miss three to five.
• Ned Yost's approval rating is at 47%, with 22% disapproval and 29% unsure. He was at 78%/8%/12% last week.
• Doug Melvin's approval rating is at 83%, with 4% disapproval and 11% unsure. He was at 97%/0%/2% last week.
• 94% of voters approved of the Cameron/Hall/Braun move.
• 47% of voters approved of the decision to sign Eric Gagne, down from 61% last week.
• 30% of voters thought the Brewers shouldn't offer Ben Sheets a contract until after the season. 29% think they should do it now, and 25% think they shouldn't do it at all.

Full results here.

To cast your vote in this week's poll, Click here. Last week's poll set a turnout record for the third straight week. Thanks to everyone who helped promote it, and if you can help us out this week, please do so.

That's all for today. Drink up.

I'm curious to see how this game turns out.  We've had two relatively low-scoring contests between powerhouse offenses, and not only that, but the starters have thrown with the hand that the other team feasts on. 

This afternoon is different--the Brewers will start lefty Manny Parra and the Marlins go with Ricky Nolasco, a righty.  It's also different in that neither of them have been any semblance of good so far this year.  Here's the BR Game Preview with all the numbers to that effect you could ever want.

It's getting old to say this, but once again, Parra may be pitching for his job.  He's been passable, but has topped out at four innings twice.  If Ned has to pick between someone mediocre who can give him 5 innings and someone mediocre who can give him 6+, we all know what decision he'll make.

Here are the lineups--it's reserve day at Miller Park.  It's not a bad idea, either: first righty starter in a while, so it make sense to put Gwynn and Counsell in there.

Game time is 1:05 CT.  Let's go Brewers!

I missed most of last night's game, but when I got home, I liked what I saw.  Another clutch bomb from Prince (against a lefty, no less), some stylish defense from Ryan Braun, and an inning without pain courtesy of Eric Gagne.  The Cubs are in Washington playing the NL East team that actually does suck, so we're still two games back.

The regulars:

• FanGraphs Win Probability chart
• BR Box Score
• BDD Daily Recap
• BP Postseason Odds:  84.7 wins and 22% chance of the division.

Before we get to some articles, I'd like to present to you a photo essay in four clicks that is guaranteed to put a smile on your face:

1. Carlos!
2. Ryan!
3. Prince!
4. Gagne!

The Junkball Blues looks at the efficiency of our starting pitching --that is, how many innings are they getting out of the pitches they throw?  The conclusions aren't surprising, but the degree to which Parra is working for his number of frames might be.

Ben Sheets threw yesterday and said, "It felt good."   I would've given this top billing, but you all know as well as I do how little Sheets updates can mean sometimes.

At The Book Blog, MGL tries to rate pitching coaches.   I had considered doing something very similar to this, so I'm glad he did.  As he acknowledges, it's a very difficult effect to nail down, but as it turns out, Mike Maddux appears to have been a positive influence--though not overwhelmingly so--over the last five years.

Some injuries:

• Scott Baker left his start last night with a groin strain , leaving the Twins wondering if they'll have any starting pitching left by June, and dejectedly realizing that the Rangers have Sidney Ponson this year.
• Kevin Correia got all of one out before leaving with a back injury.   Ouch.
• Kerwin Danley got hit.   Hard.  (Link has video.)

In former Brewers news, it's a big day to be a part of the old Brewers-Braves trade.  Dan Kolb (yes, that Dan Kolb) was released by the Red Sox, and Jose Capellan (yes, that Jose Capellan) was promoted by the Rockies.

Speaking of the Rockies, somebody had to go to make room for Capellan, and that someone was...Jayson Nix .  Doug: Gyt oyn thy phoyne, immydyatly!

The Pirates are bad.  Charlie at Bucs Dugout sums it all up in one brilliant post.

I'm guessing most of you haven't heard of Danny Ray Herrera, but he's a great story.  He was part of the Josh Hamilton trade in the offseason, and he just made a successful debut in Triple-A.   For the whole Herrera tale, from being a too-short-for-the-scouts college pitcher to a surprise success in A ball, click here.  (It's a great article.)

That's it for today...at least for the next two hours, until game time.

The matchup is Manny Parra versus Kyle Lohse, who--come on, now--really can't be that good.  Right?

Tom H has the lineups, and I'm sorry, but I'm going to have to go on a little rant.  Tom says:

Utility infielder Craig Counsell is starting at shortstop today in place of slumping J.J. Hardy as the Brewers try to salvage a split of their two-game series against St. Louis at Miller Park.

Hardy is one of many hitters in the lineup unable to get going at the plate for the Brewers, with a .214 batting average.

I'm going to ignore the "salvage a split" business...we're talking two games.  We'll survive.  But..."slumping?"  "Unable to get going?"  Are we talking about the same guy?  I usually don't pay attention to short-term trends, but since you mentioned it: JJ went 3-5 two days ago, and has six hits (including a homer) in the last four games.  Selective endpoints, sure, but if you think JJ is slumping at the moment, your sample size is...yesterday.  You can tinker with your own endpoints here.

Here's the BR Game Preview.  Project-a-tron is pissed about last night, but I managed to talk it into giving me some numbers for today:

• Brewers 5.5
• Cards 4.9
• Brewers WinExp: 59%

Let's go Crew!

 

Happy Patriot Day, Brewer fans. I've been away from the TV, radio and computer for most of the last 3 days, but coming home today I see that the Brewers took two of three and should've swept the Reds, and open today's series with the Cardinals a game back of first place. It's time for a Frosty Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
ESPN Video Highlights
Baseball Digest Daily recaps
BP Postseason odds projecting the Brewers for 84 wins and a 23.6% shot at winning the Central.

Let's talk about Ben Sheets for a moment. The team says Sheets will only have to push his next start back a day. That doesn't seem serious, but at the same time, they've gone up to 14 pitchers on the roster just to make sure they have enough to cover the delay. Jim Powell also says Sheets is feeling better. I'm not entirely sure how keeping a guy like Mitch Stetter on the roster would fix the problem, even if he wasn't.

Inside the Book asks if teams overvalue guys with great stuff but questionable control. Since we seem to be having occasional debates lately about the value of Derrick Turnbow, I thought this belonged in the top half of the Mug.

Brian Shouse's streak of 83 consecutive appearances without allowing a home run was the 14th longest all time.

If you thought everyone loved Paul Molitor, it turns out it's only almost everyone.

Thanks to all 142 of you who voted in last week's fan opinion poll. The results:

• 74% of voters thought Dave Bush should move to the bullpen in place of Seth McClung when Gallardo returned.
• 45% of voters thought Eric Gagne's position as closer should be re-evaluated at the end of April. 32% thought he should be re-evaluated at the All Star Break and 21% think he's the closer indefinitely.
• 82% of voters thought Prince Fielder's slow start had nothing to do with becoming a vegetarian.
• 66% of voters thought the Brewers should make an effort to limit Manny Parra's innings.
• Of those voters, 68% thought it should be done by skipping his spot in the rotation when possible.
• Ned Yost's approval rating is at 78%, up from 77% last week, with 8% disapproval and 12% unsure.
• Doug Melvin's approval rating is at 97%, with one lone no vote and 2% unsure. Last week he was at 91%/5%/2%
• 96% of voters were in favor of the Cameron/Hall/Braun move.
• 61% of voters were in favor of the Gagne signing, with 17% opposed and 21% unsure.
• 35% of voters thought the team should offer Ben Sheets a long-term deal, with 29% wanting to wait until after the season, 19% opposed and 16% unsure.

Full results here. I'm hoping to write this week's poll today and post it later or tomorrow. If you have questions you'd like to see included, drop them in the comments.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Doug Davis is recovering well from surgery and throwing off flat ground. He could return in May.
Kosuke Fukudome missed last night's game with a cyst above his right eye, but should play today.
Chipper Jones was pulled from yesterday's game with a quad injury.
Alex Rodriguez was also pulled from yesterday's game with a quad injury.
Jimmy Rollins has been placed on the DL, but since he pinch-hit Saturday, he's not eligible to be placed retroactively.
David Weathers has been placed on the DL with nerve inflammation in his elbow.

Frank Thomas was released rather abruptly yesterday. Obviously, this will lead to lots of speculation about who he could help, but Landon Evanson at Bugs and Cranks likes him as a Twin.

This would be a much better reason to be cursed: Historical evidence suggests the Cubs may have thrown the 1918 World Series.

Now available: Hideo Nomo. Potentially available May 1: Bartolo Colon.

Bucs Dugout's tournament to determine the worst GM in baseball has moved on to the second round. Voting is open for the first matchup, Jon Daniels v. Bill Bavasi.

And while you're voting, go here as well and help me fill out my AL awards ballots. Thanks!

Drink up.

So, as Jeff mentioned in yesterday's Plastic Cup, I was on the road yesterday. A brief anecdote from the road:

The fiancee and I were traveling together yesterday, and my last item of business was finished a couple of hours before hers. So there I was, in the back of a coffee shop, headphones in, listening to the Brewers, waiting for the call that would say "it's time to go." I tuned in around the time Manny Parra was exiting. I spent about 4 innings wishing she would hurry up and call, as the game was...well, less than encouraging. But I was there when Prince's double tied it in the 8th, and I was trying hard not to make a scene when Ryan Braun singled to lead off the 10th...

And the phone rang. "Ok, I'm ready for you to pick me up." I reluctantly packed my things, walked to the parking garage, and by the time XM Radio could pick up reception, it was 5-3 in the bottom of the 10th. Not only did I miss Prince's first home run, I didn't even know that's how they scored until the post-game show. Hopefully I'll catch about 50 more of them this season to even it out.

Win Expectancy Graph
Baseball Reference Box Score
ESPN Video Highlights
Baseball Digest Daily Recaps

With the win, Baseball Prospectus' Postseason Odds have the Brewers winning exactly 81 games, with a 16.2% chance of winning the Central.

All kinds of stuff about Prince following the game:

Tom H. has Fielder's postgame quotes.
Home Run Derby named it Home Run of the Day.
In-Between Hops notes the Fielder is even with his home run pace from last year, but would need to hit 4 in his next 5 games to keep it up.
Baseball Musings notes that, before the HR, 7 of Prince's 13 hits had come with runners in scoring position.
Yahoo has a photo of Prince rounding the bases.

Also, if you're looking for quotes from the Cardinals regarding yesterday's game, Fungoes has a wealth of them.

Bugs and Cranks has a nice review of the situation at the back end of the rotation, with Bush, Villanueva and Parra holding spots and Gallardo looking for one.

Speaking of Villanueva, John Sickels has an in depth look at him.

He's had one at bat in the last three days, but Ken Rosenthal still can't get enough Gabe Kapler.

Forbes has released their annual valuations of all 30 MLB teams. The Brewers rank 24th.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Erik Bedard may have torn cartilage in his hip. I'm not sure what that means for his return.
Carlos Beltran missed last night's 14-inning marathon with a stiff neck.
Rangers OF Marlon Byrd has been placed on the DL with a sore knee.
Braves reliever Peter Moylan is out for the season with a bone spur pressing against the UCL in his elbow.
Rays reliever Al Reyes is on the DL with an impinged shoulder.
Richie Sexson will miss a game or two with nagging shoulder and leg pain.
Miguel Tejada isn't hurt, but he sure is aging fast.

Speaking of things that'll make you age fast, the Rockies and Padres played 22 innings last night. Even Fangraphs gave up after 17.

Two stories out there today showing Cub fans in a (well deserved?) negative light: First, via Redleg Nation, I found this clip of Marty Brennaman's reaction to Cub fans throwing dozens of balls on the field following a home run. Also, Fukudome's reaction to a racist t-shirt being sold by vendors outside Wrigley is a must read. I know a lot of very bright, intelligent Cubs fans that are a credit to their franchise...it's just unfortunate they seem to be in the minority.

Bucs Dugout continues their search for baseball's worst GM. Polls are open right now for Omar Minaya v. Jim Hendry and Ken Williams v. Wayne Krivsky.

Gaslamp Ball wants to hear about your favorite baseball books.

Finally, in response to a question asked in the game thread a couple of nights ago, TheJay has compiled a list of the last players to wear #42 for every franchise. Scott Karl was the last Brewer, and also the last Rockie. Interestingly enough, Mo Vaughn was the last player to wear #42 for three teams.

That's all for today. I'm back on the road in a few hours, so Jeff will be filling in again tomorrow and Sunday. If you have something to submit for inclusion in a future Mug, please post it in the comments. Drink up.