Some things to read while acknowledging that these pumpkin chocolate chip cookies may be the greatest ever.

Today's collection of links is actually the largest since the end of the season, so let's get right to it.

If you've been reading the site over the weekend you likely know all of this news, but in case you've been away all weekend, here's what you missed:

• Dale Sveum will be back for 2009 after all, as hitting coach. (as noted in this FanShot)
• Craig Counsell's option for 2009 was declined. He could still return as a free agent, of course.
• Mike Maddux won't be back either, after being "overwhelmed by a huge deal" to take over as pitching coach in Texas. The Brewers reportedly offered him a multi-year deal. (Noted in this FanShot) The Newberg Report has a story from the Rangers' side.
• Joe Dillon also won't be back. The A's claimed him off waivers after the Brewers DFA'd him last week.
• Ken Rosenthal is reporting the Brewers' offer to CC Sabathia was in fact for $100 million, but the contract was for five years, not four. For me, this removes any possibility Sabathia will return. (noted in this FanShot)
• The Brewers have until tomorrow to decide if Mike Cameron will return in 2009.

Now, other stuff. The Fall GM meetings begin today, giving Doug Melvin the first chance to sit across the table from new Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik. Murray Chass seems to think hiring Zduriencik was the wrong decision, mainly because he had a profile of Kim Ng all ready to go. Of course, everyone expects most of the conversation at the meetings to be about Jake Peavy, but it sounds like Hank Blalock's name will come up as well.

One would assume Doug Melvin is at least listening to offers for J.J. Hardy. The Junkball Blues, meanwhile, crunched the numbers to figure out what kind of production would be needed from Hardy and Alcides Escobar to justify moving Hardy to third and Bill Hall out of the lineup.

Planning on making a trip to Vegas? Current odds have the Brewers at 15-to-1 to win the 2009 World Series. The odds would have to get a lot better before I'd be interested. Right now, 15-to-1 is a better shot than 19 other teams have, and tied with the Dodgers and Twins. (h/t Redleg Nation)

Tim Kurkijian says the Sabathia Sweepstakes is the third most interesting story of the offseason. With Sabathia the Brewers had the sixth best starting rotation in all of baseball, according to Beyond the Box Score.

Sabathia, Ray Durham and Russell Branyan all filed for free agency over the weekend, joining these players:

Angels Darren Oliver, Juan Rivera
Athletic Alan Embree
Cub Kerry Wood and also Henry Blanco,
Mariners Raul Ibanez, Willie Bloomquist, Miguel Cairo
Marlins Mark Hendrickson, Arthur Rhodes
Mets Pedro Martinez, Luis Ayala, Tony Armas, Moises Alou, Ricardo Rincon, Ramon Martinez and also Orlando Hernandez
Phillies So Taguchi, Tom Gordon
Pirates Doug Mientkiewicz, Chris Gomez, Jason Michaels, Luis Rivas
Rockies Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, Livan Hernandez, Adam Melhuse, Scott Podsednik

At this point I feel obligated to remind you that Orlando Hernandez is free to throw the banana for other teams.

FanGraphs has built the All Free Agent Bargain Team. There are some decent players on there, but that team would lose most of the time.

As we look into the future, few things are abolutely certain, but we can say this: despite boatloads of other teams making the exodus from spring training sites in Florida to Arizona, the Red Sox are committed to training in Florida through 2038.

It's a good thing we'll probably have some time to learn to say his name: The Pirates have signed an 18-year-old shortstop from South Africa named Mpho Ngoepe. There has never been a South African player in the major leagues. Have there been any from anywhere in Africa? I do not know.

Indians minor leaguer Randy Newsom's blogs from Venezuela are really making me want to go see a game there.

Finally, let's say you're the Washington Nationals. You lost 102 games in 2008, the franchise's first 100 loss season since 1976. You set a modern era single season record for lowest attendance in a new ballpark. You could count the number of fans listening to your games on the radio or watching them on TV on your fingers and toes. Do you honestly believe people are going to come out in hordes to buy your new jerseys? You're invited to join them at the unveiling Thursday. Bring a friend, otherwise you might be there all alone.

Drink up.

Some things to read while waiting for this machine to become commercially available.

So with the World Series over, one would expect the Brewers to announce their new manager any minute now. Add Drew Olson to the list of people expecting it to be Ken Macha.

After that, they'll have roughly a day to convince Mike Maddux to stay. The Brewers have denied permission for Maddux to interview with the Rangers regarding their pitching coach vacancy, but Maddux hasn't signed his contract for 2009 so on Friday he'll be free to talk to whoever he wants.

Also, the Brewers now have five days to determine the future of Mike Cameron. MLB Trade Rumors says he would be a Type B free agent, as will Eric Gagne, Brian Shouse and Salomon Torres. Gagne would almost certainly take arbitration if offered, but Shouse and Torres are anyone's guess.

Then, the Sabathia sweepstakes begins. Ken Rosenthal says the Brewers will throw $100 million at him. I don't think they'll throw it...they'll probably put it in a nice suitcase or something. Probably with wheels on the bottom, because I'd guess $100 million is heavy.

The Brewers have already gotten a head start on resolving the third base situation, claiming Casey McGehee off waivers from the Cubs (as noted in the FanShots). Joe Dillon was DFA'd to make room for him, but could still return on a minor league deal...or head to Japan. McGehee probably isn't the answer, but he's one more answer to try.

Speaking of potential answers at third base, Mat Gamel won an award for consistency yesterday. Apparently they haven't watched him in the field. (Also noted in the Fanshots).

That's all I've got for today, but I figured a short Mug would give you plenty of time to invest in the 401 Keg retirement plan.

Drink up.

Wow. Just wow.

Friday:
Brewers 5, Cubs 1
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score

Marlins 6, Mets 1
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score

Saturday:
Cubs 7, Brewers 3
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score

Mets 2, Marlins 0
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score

Sunday:
Brewers 3, Cubs 1
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score

Marlins 4, Brewers 2
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Milwaukee Brewers, winners of the NL Wild Card. You can get your Wild Card gear here, but I'm saving my budget and waiting to see if there's NL Champion or even World Series Champion gear yet to come.

Of course, just about every Brewer blog under the sun (and some non-Brewer blogs) has a celebratory post today, and since I'm in a celebratory mood, I'm going to link them all:

• Adam Charles of Bugs and Cranks
• Another Baseball Blog
• Babes Love Baseball
• Brewers Bar
• Bernie's Crew
• Brewed Sports
• The Brew Town Beat
• Chuckie Hacks
• Fire Ned Yost
• The Griddle
• The Junkball Blues
• Viva Cerveceros
• The Yost Infection

45,299 fans were there to see it yesterday, giving the Brewers a season total of 3,068,458. Of course, if that wasn't enough celebration for you, you can celebrate with the team from 4-8 today at the Summerfest grounds. I wish I could.

I'm not going to link to every photo shot at yesterday's game, although I could. Instead, I'll give you my favorite three, and you can click through to any of them and scroll through the rest if you want.

After the game, Tom H. got quotes from Doug Melvin, Ben Sheets, Dale Sveum, Dave Bush and Craig Counsell.

Ok, let's talk about CC Sabathia for a moment. Ken Rosenthal talked to him after the game about pitching on short rest and everything he's done to help this team win. Scott Miller says Sabathia delivered a postseason to Milwaukee. Rosenthal ranked Sabathia 4th on his NL MVP ballot (and ranked Doug Melvin 3rd for Executive of the Year). Rosenthal has apparently been typing non-stop since the end of action yesterday, because he also wrote that the bold move of firing Ned Yost paid off.

At most recent count, Ryan Braun ranks seventh in the voting for NL MVP over at Beyond the Box Score. Go cast your vote. Meanwhile, The Hardball Times noted a lot more Braun jerseys than Fielders in the crowd at Miller Park. I own a Braun jersey too, but not a Fielder, mainly because I know Braun will still be a Brewer for a few more years.

Remember when we all signed up to pee our pants if the Brewers made the playoffs? I don't remember if I signed up or not, but I'm not ruining my pants. Here's a youtube video of someone who actually did.

Two-Fisted Slopper wonders if everything has happened for a reason, and all the terrible play Wes Helms showed in Milwaukee was just part of the building process towards his home run for the Marlins yesterday.

So now, the Phillies. Cole Hamels will pitch Game One on Wednesday. Todd Zolecki of the Philadelphia Inquirer is my favorite Phillies blogger, and he has a quick series preview here and a quick analysis of the Brewer pitching staff here.

MLB Playoff Odds has the Brewers at 45.7% to win their series with the Phillies, 20.5% to win the NLCS and 9.4% to win the World Series. All three of those numbers are the lowest among the 4 NL playoff teams. Jon Heyman is predicting a Cubs World Series win. I'm predicting I'll get a few more opportunities this year to roll my eyes while linking a Jon Heyman column. In other predictions: Crawfish Boxes has the Phillies winning in the first round, and Purple Row has the Brewers losing to the Rays in the World Series.

If the Brewers/Phillies matchup isn't intriguing enough for you, The Junkball Blues handicaps the 2008 Brewers/1982 Brewers matchup.

Phil Rogers ranked the Brewers 6th in his new power rankings.

On injuries:

Rocco Baldelli was reported to have muscular dystrophy over the weekend, but has since denied it.
Josh Beckett strained an oblique muscle while throwing a side session and won't pitch until at least game 3 of the ALDS.
Francisco Cordero had surgery over the weekend to remove a bone spur from his right foot. He was able to do it this early because he plays on a team that didn't make the playoffs.
Dodgers RP Hong-Chih Kuo will be left off the NLDS roster with numbness in his fingers.
Giants SP Noah Lowry will undergo surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow.

So now, for the first time in 26 years, we as Brewer fans get to try to re-work our schedules to catch must-see baseball games at bizarre times in the afternoon on a work day. Bugs & Cranks has an open letter to baseball regarding the situation (potentially NSFW language).

The end of the regular season also means the coaching carousel is in full swing. So far, I haven't heard about any managers moving on, but the Tigers fired their pitching and bullpen coaches, the Nationals fired five coaches from their staff after losing 102 games, and the winds of change are starting to blow in Texas. Joe Torre's job is probably safe in Los Angeles, even though Nomar Garciaparra managed yesterday's game.

Speaking of Torre, he's one of three current MLB managers The Hardball Times thinks are locks for the Hall of Fame.

Jayson Stark has his Year in Review up. I could give or take most of his award voting, but the quirky quotes and box score lines make it a must read if you're as nerdy as I am.

Among players over 24 years old, Russell Branyan had the highest MLE (Major League Equivalent) stat line this season. Second place fell to Nelson Cruz.

So Cliff Lee was scratched from the final game of the season yesterday, giving him 22 wins to finish the season and an almost certain AL Cy Young. Tangotiger wants to know what you think he's worth. I know most people will pay him more, but I had a hard time cracking $10 mil/year for a guy who's only had one good season.

Oh, and Brad Nelson and Joe Dillon are probably more concerned with their current jobs, but Baseball Analysts says they'd be candidates to spend 2009 in Japan.

Drink up.

While reading this morning's Mug, be sure to reload this page every few minutes to see if the Large Hadron Supercollider has destroyed the Earth yet.

Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score

So apparently Corey Hart doesn't like the fan interaction at home. I'll admit there's been a lot of booing lately. But realistically, I think the problem can be limited to one source. Here's the full list of things I've booed at Miller Park in 2008. I think there's a notable pattern:

A) Milwaukee Brewers manager Ned Yost.
B) Bad decisions made by Milwaukee Brewers manager Ned Yost.
C) Negative outcomes immediately stemming from bad decisions made by Milwaukee Brewers manager Ned Yost.

The pattern is subtle, but I think the solution to the problem is pretty obvious.

Adam Charles from Bugs & Cranks has some advice for Corey.

Getting back to Yost for a moment: I think I've figured out what we're doing wrong. When it became clear that management of the Milwaukee Brewers was headed in the wrong direction, one of us created Fire Ned Yost, but didn't specify a timetable. As an example of a better solution, behold one of my new favorite Dodger blogs: Fire Ned Coletti Now.

As I write this, you've got about an hour and 15 minutes (before 10 am) to go vote for the Brewers call of the coin flip to determine home-field advantage in tiebreaker games. Baseball Musings says if the vote ends up tied, Doug Melvin should just flip a coin. (Also noted in the Fanshots)

So Prince finally hit a home run yesterday. Unfortunately, with the Brewer loss the 5-way tie scenario for the NL Wild Card is still in play.

Gabe Kapler is likely done for the season. I guess this means Tony Gwynn is our last option in center, but I'm hoping Joe Dillon would get the AB's if a corner OF was needed.

Mike Greenberg wants to give the NL MVP to CC Sabathia. His second choice? Manny Ramirez. Mike Greenberg should not be allowed to vote for MVP.

It's a day late, but since there's still 3 games left in the series, here's Brewerfan.net's Brewers-Phillies series preview.

On injuries:

A's 2B Mark Ellis will require surgery to repair cartilage damage in his shoulder, but should be ready for spring training 2009.
Braves SP Charlie Morton is done for the year with pain in his shoulder blade.
Tigers OF Clete Thomas is out for the season and some of 2009 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

The Angels backed into a save situation last night, leading 7-0 in the 8th but allowing the Mariners back into it. That save situation, though, allowed Francisco Rodriguez to tie the single season saves record. Congratulations to him.

Yesterday I mentioned that Dusty Baker doesn't want to play the Reds' September call ups. Today, Redlegs Rundown asks if it's possible Dusty's long track record with pitchers has a new victim: Aaron Harang.

Oddly enough, one of baseball's younger managers doesn't want to play one of his September callups either: Royals rookie manager Trey Hillman isn't finding any playing time for fan favorite Kila Ka'aihue.

Drink up.

So I've got a ton of links this morning. There were over 1300 unread in my reader this morning, plus a dozen or so I found before I decided to observe the holiday yesterday. So why did I spend 15 minutes reading Joe Posnanski's thoughts on candy bars?

Monday's Win Expectancy Graph
Monday's BR Box Score

Sunday's Win Expectancy Graph
Sunday's BR Box Score

Saturday's Win Expectancy Graph
Saturday's BR Box Score

Friday's Win Expectancy Graph
Friday's Box Score

Ok, 3 1/2 days of links. Where does one start?

Everyone wants to talk about the game that was or wasn't a no-hitter on Sunday. This seems like a good time to bust out the bullet points:

• Tom H. has the official scorer's explanation.
• Chuckie Hacks says it wasn't a hit, but will settle for a 20-win month.
• In-Between Hops thinks we all have bigger things to worry about.
• The Brew Town Beat thinks MLB should reverse the call.
• Two Fisted Slopper also thinks it was the wrong call.
• Jim Powell says, and I quote: "We wuz robbed."
• Baseball Musings asked another official scorer for their opinion, and said it should be a hit.
• Bugs and Cranks wants to know what you think. Right now about 52% of voters are voting "error."
• Murray Chass wants his prune juice NOW!
• Peter Schmuck says MLB shouldn't change the call after the fact.

A couple of other notes on Sabathia: Beyond the Box Score is comparing Sabathia and...Ricky Nolasco? Also, MLB FanHouse thinks Sabathia is "flying under the radar" as a Cy Young candidate. How is that possible?

This is almost certainly bigger news: Ben Sheets left yesterday's game with tightness in his left groin. I haven't seen any updates on his condition yet, but obviously we'll be watching.

The rosters also expanded over the weekend. The JS has a quick profile of the ten players the Brewers have called up.

Looking ahead, The Brew Town Beat takes a look at today's Mets starter, Jon Niese, who will make his big league debut. TheJay has a FanPost on him too.

Could the Brewers play low-A ball in the Midwest League again next season? Via Al, I found this story that would suggest the Brewers and Wisconsin Timber Rattlers are waiting for the MLB-sanctioned window to open negotiations.

On Power Rankings:

WhatifSports has the Brewers 4th.
Phil Rogers has the Brewers 5th.
The Whisnant Rankings have the Brewers 8th.

Two Brewer voices are up for consideration for the Ford Frick Award, getting them a place alongside Bob Uecker in the Hall of Fame. I'm not sure Jim Powell is quite ready for enshrinement yet. And Bill Schroeder? Really?

On injuries:

Padres OF Scott Hairston has a torn ligament in his thumb.
Jeff Kent will have surgery to repair a torn medial meniscus and is out for the season.
Rangers P Vicente Padilla is on the DL with a strained hamstring.

And, instead of linking it 3 times, I'll just tell you that The Disabled List Informer has injury news on Carlos Zambrano (shoulder fatigue), Kevin Gregg (left knee inflammation) and Wandy Rodriguez (oblique).

MLB Trade Rumors has sorted likely free agent pitchers by strikeout rate, giving us the first list of likely free agent pitchers that doesn't have CC Sabathia at the top. At the same time The Junkball Blues asks if free agent pitchers are worth it.

Cliff Lee won his 20th game yesterday, making him 20-2 for the 66-win Cleveland Indians. Baseball Musings is calling it the best pitching performance in the AL since Pedro Martinez in 1999.

Brandon Webb couldn't pick up his 20th win again yesterday. But the organization has stepped up behind him and acquired some grit.

I was looking for something offbeat and unrelated to post here in the close, then I realized I used the candy bar thing in the open. Please do not protest.

Drink up.

Ryan Braun has missed the last two games, and he'll miss at least one more.  There's not a lot of clarity about his health situation--he sounds optimistic he'll be back on the field in a few days, but it's possible that his problems run deeper.  I can't get too interested in the details of injuries, so I'll leave that part of it up to those who want to hash it out.

But it does open up some questions we really didn't want to be asking.  What if Braun heads to the DL?  What if he's out for the season (or a substantial part of it)?

Obviously, any extended absence is a serious blow to the lineup.  Not only is Braun one of the best hitters on the team--he leads Brewers regulars with a 137 OPS+--but the rest of the lineup looks a little more toothless without him.  Sure, guys like Hart and Branyan can hit, but a Kapler-Fielder-Hart, or Hall-Fielder-Hart middle of the order just isn't the same.

If the injury sends Braun to the DL, but there's good reason to think he'll be back before the end of the month, I'd be surprised to see the team make any serious moves.  Kapler has filled in nicely, Branyan (and even Hall) can play left, and I wouldn't be shocked to see Ray Durham out there.  (I don't endorse it, but I wouldn't rule it out.)

Not only that, but a DL move opens a roster spot for a replacement.  The logical callups, I suppose, are:

• Joe Dillon: remember it was last August he impressed us so much, and since he's been on the team this year, he's the easiest guy for Ned to add to the mix.
• Laynce Nix: he's OPSing almost 900 at Nashville, and is sort of Branyan without the walks and the major league track record.  I'm skeptical, because he was a lot better the first two months of the season than he has been since; his June and July OBPs were .298 and .310, respectively.  One plus is that he's a solid defender in a corner.
  
• Brad Nelson: he's probably not great shakes with the glove, but he has played quite a bit in left.  I think he's my pick among these three, because he's nearly as powerful as Nix, but has a nearly .400 OBP.  He's also swooned some the last couple of months, though.

Nothing too exciting there.  I doubt it would matter much, since if it's a short-term injury, Kapler will be the guy. 

What if, heaven forbid, Braun is out for most of the rest of the season?

As exciting as Kapler has been at times, there's no way he's the left fielder of a potential championship team (at least not this one) for two months.  Nor is anybody else in the fold right now.  Now that it's August, the trade market is much more constrained, but I've scanned the rosters of out-of-contention teams looking for possible replacements who have likely cleared waivers:

• Shannon Stewart ...just released by the Blue Jays...basically he's another Kapler.
• Aubrey Huff ...having a solid (302/360/550) season for the Orioles.  We could do worse.
• Raul Ibanez ...on the block before the deadline; the Mariners should want to get rid of him.  He's also having a decent year (286/350/483), but he's a major liability with the glove.
• Randy Winn ...Stewart, only more expensive.

Blech.  Huff's really the only option that could come close to replacing Braun's offense, and we'd sacrifice some defense plugging him in over Kapler or Nix.  He's also signed for $8MM next year, so we'd basically be borrowing him just to find a taker in the offseason.  That's not going to happen.

Of course, there's always the nuclear option.  Barry Bonds is on the market.  The man can hit.  If Braun is out for the season, I will pound the Bonds drum until you're so sick of hearing about it you'll want to go back to getting your Brewers commentary from Haudricourt.  But I realize it's far fetched.

Exercises like this are always interesting, especially after the trade deadline.  Let's hope this one is only an exercise.

As you probably know by now, the Brewers sent the Giants lefty pitcher Steve Hammond and olympic sprinter Darren Ford in exchange for Ray Durham and about $1.5MM.  If you want to read some immediate opinions on both sides of the aisle, here you go.

In that thread, I made it pretty clear I was against the deal.  I want to also make it clear that while guys like me tend to get worked up about roster tweaks, I recognize that the overall impact here, whether good or bad, is likely to be small.

First off, I view Darren Ford as no more than a throw-in.  If he has a major-league future, it's not even as a fourth outfielder--he'd be a fifth-outfielder/pinch-runner/25th-man type guy.  That is probably his upside.  He's exactly the sort of player that should be included in a deal like this, since the Giants seem to like that sort of guy.

The debate in the thread I linked above was more about Steve Hammond.  Nobody thinks Hammond is likely to be a difference-maker in the bigs; it might even be optimistic to think he's likely to crack the Brewers starting rotation.  The question is: In a deal where we pay $1.5MM for very little return (more on that in a minute), should we be giving up anything of possible value?

As long-time readers know, I'm fixated on the importance of rotation depth.  The Brewers had it this year (though I didn't realize McClung would be it), and it paid off.  Mark Shapiro, the Indians GM, has said you need to go into a season 7 or 8 deep, and he's absolutely right.  We could've kept Hammond in the minors as insurance through 2010, and while he'd never be more than a 5th starter, he would make it that much less likely we'd need to turn to next year's Jeff Weaver, Sidney Ponson, or Nelson Figueroa.  Maybe we can replace him on the cheap; maybe he's not any better than guys like DiFelice and Lindsey Gulin; but I think there's a reasonable chance he's better than the other options.

Obviously, we're splitting hairs here.  But if we're measuring the value of acquiring 36-year-old Ray Durham...well, hairs need to be split.

We're bringing in Durham to replace Joe Dillon.  That certainly improves the team in terms of veteran savviness and name-recognition, but what does it do on the field?

Durham is a switch-hitter, which is nice for late-inning strategery.  However, I keep hearing that he's the "lefty bat" that we need off the bench.  Sorry--no.  He does stand on the correct side of the plate against right-handed pitchers, but that isn't what matters--I could do that, too.  This year is the first season since 2002 that Durham has hit better against righties.  Given the last three, or five, years of data, Durham's splits look a lot like those of a typical right-handed hitter.

You might also hear that Durham is a "proven on-base guy," and hence a good option to sub for Weeks in the leadoff spot.  This year, indeed, he has been, with a .385 OBP.  His career OBP is .352--worse than Rickie's second half Marcel projection. 

Further, all of this year's numbers are BABIP-inflated.  His batted balls have been dropping at a .349 rate compared to a .306 career average.  If anything, I'd expect him to be *below* career average, since he's older and slower than he used to be.  If you assume his BABIP should be at his career average level, he's gotten 9 extra hits this year.  Take those away, and his season line is 259/355/369.  The OBP is still hanging in there, but...we're spending money on this?

Turning all of this into a mini-projection, I can borrow battlekow's work and give you Dillon's and Durham's Marcel projections for the rest of the year:

• Durham: .259/.335/.412
  
• Dillon: .262/.338/.399

Dramatic, eh?  Durham has virtually no defensive value--he's a below-average second baseman in the field, and we have Counsell as a backup at that position.  Heck, *Counsell* is OPSing .705 against righties which, if you assume Durham has an even platoon split (that's generous) is only a bit less than what we can expect from our new acquisition.

In a nutshell, it looks to me like we got ourselves a left-handed pinch-hitter who isn't really a lefty and isn't much of a hitter.  Since we're just as well off plugging in Counsell two days a week (his defense more than makes up for a 30-50 point OPS advantage), we could take our pick of defensively-challenged lefties on the market.  In fact, we wouldn't have to turn to the market--Brad Nelson's MLE versus righties is 276/358/423.  I don't want Nelson playing second base, but I don't particularly want to see Durham out there when Counsell is on the bench, either.

And that brings me (blessedly) to my last thought.  When I was thinking through the various trade options at second base, I realized that I left out one possible replacement...yes, our very own Craig Counsell.  He's a lefty, he's a great fielder, and if we need to give Rickie a little extra motivation (that's been cited as a reason for the trade), giving Craig 3-4 starts per week would do that just as well as giving Durham 2.

Counsell isn't as good a hitter as Rickie, but his OPS against righties--705--is better than Rickie's this year, and it's pretty close to Rickie's career numbers vRHP.

In my view, then, we gave up a potentially useful player plus a decent chunk of change for a guy that isn't as good as players we already have.  As I said at the outset, it's not going to hurt us much even if it does turn out negative.  But it would be nice if our postseason-directed moves actually made the team better *now*.  I'm not at all sure we did that.

An off day is always a good time to practice thinking positive thoughts.

BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 79.2 and 8.2% to win the Central.

Yesterday's off day was also a pretty quiet one around the web. In fact, the biggest news is likely that there will be no news surrounding the closer's spot.

On closers, Eric Seidman at Fangraphs is working to develop a new stat that's more accurate than a pure save total. I like where he's going with it.

In his most recent "That's Debatable" at ESPN.com, Jerry Crasnick says the Brewers have too many pitching issues to overcome to be considered the top team in the NL Central.

Reportedly, the Mets are interested in Turnbow. Doug Melvin is sitting by the phone.

If you needed something disturbing to help you get through the day, here's Brian Shouse juxtaposed into classic art. Is juxtaposed the word I wanted? Perhaps I'm using it in the wrong situation...just like the Brewers use Shouse.

Here are the results from last week's Fan Opinion Poll:

• 52% of voters thought the Brewers made the right decision keeping Manny Parra on the roster and sending down Dave Bush. Of course, it's a moot point now.
• 70% of voters thought Mike Cameron should bat second. No other position got 10% of the vote.
• 52% thought Bill Hall should've swung away in the ninth inning of last Sunday's game. 43% favored the decision to bunt.
• 58% of voters were satisfied with the 13-pitcher roster. Also a moot point.
• Of those dissatisfied, 48% wanted more position players on the roster. Welcome back, Joe Dillon.
• Ned Yost's approval rating is down to 40%, with 32% disapproval and 26% unsure. He was at 47%/22%/29% last week.
• Doug Melvin's approval rating is up slightly, at 84%, with 4% disapproval and 10% unsure. He was at 83%/4%/11% last week.
• 97% of voters approve of the Cameron signing and position changes.
• 60% approve of the Gagne signing, with 17% disapproval. That's up from 47% approval last week.
• 34% of voters think the Brewers shouldn't offer Ben Sheets a new contract until after the season. 31% think the Brewers should offer him a contract now and 24% think they shouldn't offer him one at all.

Full results here. A new poll may be posted today. If you have suggestions for questions in this week's poll, I'd welcome them. Drop them in the comments.

On injuries:

Braves IF Martin Prado injured his thumb sliding into first base in a 14-7 game. He's out 6-8 weeks.
Mariners P Jarrod Washburn had to leave last night's start with tightness in his right calf.
Rockies P Kip Wells will require surgery to remove a blood clot in his right hand.

Non-Brewer related: We've been talking an awful lot in the comments lately about umpiring. The Book has an interesting post today on Angel Hernandez and how he skews umpiring statistics. I'd try to offer a better summary of it, but the more I read, the more confused I get.

That's all for today. Post your suggestions for linkage in tomorrow's Mug and/or suggested poll questions in the comments. Drink up.

I've got a lot of tabs open right now, which means there are a lot of links to get to.  Let's get at it.

• FanGraphs Win Probability graph
• BR Box Score
• BDD Daily Recaps
• BP Postseason Odds: 84 wins, 26% shot at the playoffs.

The big news this morning is that it's official, Turnbow is DFA'd and Dillon is back.  It's disappointing that D-Bow hasn't been able to turn it around, but I do think it's well past time we cut our losses here.  One interesting thought that has been popping up a little bit lately is that Melvin is too slow to cut the cord on his reclamation projects--Podsednik is a similar case that comes to mind.  Branch Rickey was famous for saying it's better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late, and while you get bit occasionally for making that mistake, it's better than being saddled with someone as ineffective as D-Bow is right now.

A few writers at The Hardball Times ganged up to write a massive profile of Ben Sheets, including pitch f/x data, mechanics analysis, and injury commentary.

The Junkball Blues looks at how the Crew has done against closers.  It's interesting work, but he draws the wrong conclusions.  In 13 closer appearances, we've been shut out 7 times and have scored 6 times.  That's astonishingly good, to my eyes.  Would you happy if your team's closer gave up a run or more every other appearance?  That's essentially what we're turning opposition closers into.

Some injury news:

• Troy Tulowitzki will be out for a month, maybe two.
• Phil Hughes has a broken rib , and will probably be out for at least two months.
• Jimmy Rollins won't be back as scheduled, and there's no clear timetable for when he will be.

I'm not going to wade very far into the muck of the Bissinger/Costas/Leitch controversy, but I will point you to this great piece by Joe Posnanski, who straddles the blogger/reporter divide quite gracefully.  And I'll say one more thing.  Bissinger may have been honing his craft for 40 years, but his LaRussa book, Three Nights In August, was truly dreadful.  Possibly the worst baseball book I have ever read.  There is nothing more insulting than a quasi-analytical hagiography about an overrated, self-aggrandizing figure like TLR.

A couple of ex-Brewers notes.  Richie Sexson hit his 300th career home run, and Greg Aquino cleared waivers (big surprise--his ERA is roughly the same as Turnbow's) and is headed to Norfolk.  I don't remember seeing this in an earlier Mug, but Brady Clark is also in AAA--he talked about retiring, but has opted to spend some quality time with Claudio Vargas in New Orleans.

I think the Nationals Enquirer had too much to drink.  Careful kids: drinking and photoshopping don't mix.

Derrick Goold has a nice article about Rick Ankiel and Pat Jordan's writing about him.  When we played the Cards recently, I was thinking about the stories in baseball today that we'd still be talking about 40 or 50 years from now, and Ankiel is definitely one of them.

It's amazing how rarely I agree with Richard Justice.  A couple of days ago, he decided to rip on the Astros FO for choosing Max Sapp, a high school catcher, in the first round of the 2006 draft.  Amazingly, he uses the phrase, "they blew it" to describe the results of a draft pick made two years ago.  True, Sapp is struggling in A ball, but dude, he's two years out of high school.  He's younger than a lot of the guys who will be drafted this year.  And anyway, first-round picks fizzle sometimes.  We're doing just fine without the services of Jeremy Jeffress, who we chose well before the Astros picked Sapp.

Finally, a happy story.  John Wilson is a 53-year-old senior at Penn State Altoona, and a key part of their baseball program.  He's friends with Dusty Baker, too, though I guess I can forgive him for that.

Drink up, but don't drink it too fast.  This cup runneth over!

It's Dave Bush against Braden Looper.  The action starts at 7:15 CT.

The Brewers lineup, featuring Kapler against a righty and Dillon subbing for Braun, and if I do say so myself, some of you are seriously overreacting.  We all knew Kapler would start seeing time against righties as long as he kept hitting like this, and Dillon is one sub, giving Braun his first day off of the year. 

It isn't how I would do it, but compared to the "approved" lineup (Gross and Braun instead), we're losing about 3/10 of a run.  And that's assuming that Kapler and Gross both play according to their preseason projections...which at the very least, Ned probably doesn't believe.

Ok, I've stepped down from my pedestal now. 

To see what I had to say in response to 5 questions at Viva El Birdos, click here.  Scroll on down here at BCB if you want to see lboros's answers to mine.  (It's worth it.)  And if you want to drench yourself in situational stats, here's the baseball-reference game preview.

I haven't seen the official Cardinals starting lineup yet, but if they go with the same starting eight that they used against a righty on Saturday night, Project-A-tron says:

• Brewers 4.9
• Cardinals 4.4
• Brewers WinExp: 51%

Also, if TLR stays true to form, we'll have a matchup of pitchers batting eighth.  Not that it matters a whole lot for the Cards--catcher/Kennedy/pitcher/Izturis is just one mass of Triple-A goodness at the plate.  Remarkably, while Izturis and Aaron Miles have gotten 12 of the 13 starts in the 9 hole, the SLG out of the 8 position is higher than that from the 9th.

Go Brewers!