So, just to make sure we're clear: Retro uniforms - unlucky. Pink bats - awesome.

Sunday's Win Expectancy Graph
Sunday's BR Box Score
Sunday's BDD Recaps

Saturday's Win Expectancy Graph
Saturday's BR Box Score
Saturday's BDD Recaps

Today, apparently, is a big day. So big I used two unnecessary commas in my opening sentence. It's a big day because Doug Melvin and Ned Yost are meeting to "discuss the Milwaukee Brewers' personnel and what might be done to improve the club."

Scott over at In-Between Hops seems to think making Prince eat a steak will improve the club.

Al notes that the team hasn't announced a starter yet for Thursday. Perhaps that will be addressed in the meeting.

Yovani Gallardo will have surgery tomorrow morning to repair his torn ACL. Hopefully the extended delay in surgery won't keep him from being ready for spring training in 2009.

Apparently commenters are watching to ensure I use the proper level of snark when posting power rankings. I hope they'll find today's snark appropriate. Or they'll find something better to do than burn half a day commenting on how I addressed Phil Rogers.

Phil Rogers is widely seen as a subpar baseball writer. He has the Brewers 21st in his most recent power rankings.
The Southpaw improves on those rankings in two ways. First, they moved the Brewers up to 18th. Second, they included a picture of Summer Glau. Who is Summer Glau? I have no idea.

On injuries:

Blue Jays reliever Jeremy Accardo has been placed on the DL with a strained forearm.
Mets 2B Luis Castillo left yesterday's game with "quad discomfort."
Chone Figgins is on the DL in Anaheim with a strained hamstring.
Kevin Millwood had to leave his start over the weekend after just two outs, and has been placed on the DL with a groin strain.
Vernon Wells has a broken non-throwing wrist and will miss 6-8 weeks.

A news flash from Chicago: Apparently the ladies love "some asian guy."

In other Cubs news, it looks like Ryne Sandberg is getting pretty good at getting ejected from games. He's been suspended from Midwest League action following a confrontation with an opposing manager Thursday.

I'm really easily distracted some days: I got up early to write the Mug this morning, but lost all the time I gained when I spent half an hour on Keith Law's list of ten home cooking mistakes.

Oh, and the Mets have DFA'd Raul Casanova.

Drink up.

Now I remember what life was like in the late '90s, when winning was a nice surprise. Not only did they somehow manage to sneak out a 9th inning win against a first place team, they did it while wearing the accursed retro jerseys.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps

Michael Hunt is calling for the end of the Yost Era. It'd be more interesting if it came from someone relevant or well informed. But I'll take what I can get. This Yost quote from a later article, however, I refuse to tolerate: The people who know the game. Those are the people who support Ned. And if you don't support Ned, it's because you don't know what's going on. I usually try not to be outright inflammatory in this space, but after that line, the gloves are off. Arrogant crap like that is the biggest reason why Ned Yost shouldn't even be allowed to manage a Wendy's.

Moving along: Yovani Gallardo will have surgery soon to repair his torn ACL. The timetable suggests to me that there's no chance he'll pitch again before next spring. If there was a chance, they wouldn't have waited this long for surgery and the current timetable would be more specific than "sometime next week."

With Gallardo out, there's a possibility that Seth McClung could get an opportunity to start at some point this season. Al notes that his numbers out of the bullpen, when you remove one bad mop up appearance, are pretty impressive.

Only two injury notes today: Reds reliever Kent Mercker is on the DL with a strained lower back and Twins reliever Pat Neshek, who left Thursday's game with pain in his elbow, has torn ligaments and will miss the rest of 2008.

As noted in the fanposts, Kevin Mench is back in the big leagues with the Blue Jays.

Richie Sexson, on the other hand, has been suspended for six games for charging the mound and throwing his helmet Thursday night.

The Padres have released Jim Edmonds. Here's a question to discuss in the comments: Of Barry Bonds, Kenny Lofton and Jim Edmonds, which could make the biggest difference to a contending team?

Reportedly, Peter McGowan is getting ready to step down as president and managing partner of the Giants. By itself, that wouldn't really be Mugworthy, but the first line of this post at El Lefty Malo was just strange enough to catch my eye: Huh? I must need another Mug. The Mug is off tomorrow but will return Monday. Drink up.

The title of this post is about the Cubs, but really, the post itself is much more about the Brewers.

Last night, Rich Hill walked the first four guys he faced.  Piniella pulled him from the game, and it was announced that Jon Lieber will replace him in the rotation.  Hill obviously has some issues to work through, and the longer it takes him to recover, the harder it will be for a contending team to put him back in the rotation.

This, of course, happened on the same day as the announcement regarding Gallardo's season-ending injury.  It's pretty clear that the loss of Gallardo for the season is worse than Hill's wildness (Hill cold be back in a month, for one thing), but  the effect may be closer than you think.

Before the season, I noted that the Cubs and Brewers rotations lined up very evenly.  You can argue about who is better in each slot, but there are a lot of similarities if you aren't tied to the "official" position on who was the "#2" or "#3" starter:

• The ace: Sheets / Zambrano
• The young stud: Gallardo / Hill
• The $10MM vet: Suppan / Lilly

Dempster or Marquis would be a decent analogue to Bush, though the biographical similarities break down in the last two spots.  Statistically, though, Dempster/Marquis will probably be about equivalent to Villa/Parra in 2008.

Both young studs are out for a while, and that leads us to:

• Initial reinforcements: Bush / Lieber
• 2008 ZiPS ERAs: 4.64 / 4.85

It'll take a lot more than this simple comparison to evaluate the impact of losing Gallardo, and it doesn't have as much to do with the Cubs as I'm suggesting here.  But if there's a moral to the story, it's this: sh*t happens.  It happens to every team, every year.  It happened to us yesterday, and it happened to our rival as well. 

The real test of any baseball team is what happens next.  That applies both in the psychological sense--can the team pull together and win despite losing a key player?--and the front office sense--is the team built to withstand a major injury?

The Brewers aren't as pitching-deep as they were two months ago, and that's been exposed in a way that most of us didn't anticipate.  But whatever you think of Dave Bush, he is very possibly the best #6 starter in the big leagues.  By that standard, Lieber isn't bad either, but he probably won't be as good.  The Cubs will survive yesterday's blow, and so will we.

So I leave the state for a day, the Brewers lose a top starter for the year, DFA a former All-Star and give up five home runs to the Astros? I may need to reevaluate my calendar. First, I need a Frosty Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 82.2 wins and a 14% shot at the Central.

Jim Powell's reaction to the Gallardo injury was similar to mine.

On a happier note, Matt LaPorta is hitting in Huntsville and blogging about it at BDD.

The Cub Reporter wants your thoughts on NL Central third basemen and catchers.

On injuries:

O's P Randor Bierd has been DL'ed with shoulder soreness.
Gary Glover was placed on the DL by the Rays with shoulder tendinitis.
Twins OF Carlos Gomez was hit in the head by a throw while stealing a base last night, and had to be carried off the field.
Angels IF Maicer Izturis is on the DL with a strained lower back.

Some days it's good to remember things could always be worse: The Pirates had to release Olivo Astacio, a top prospect, after he attacked a teammate with a bat.

Or, the Brewers could've been forced to cancel Dr. Seuss night, as the Lake Elsinore Storm were.

Or, in the middle of a three game series with the Brewers, you could be involved in a poll to determine baseball's worst GM, as Astros GM Ed Wade is.

Despite missing a start, Ben Sheets was still third in the most recent Baseball Happenings blogpoll for NL Cy Young. Geovany Soto edged out Fukudome by one point in the Rookie of the Year poll.

That's all I've got for today. I'm still on the road for a couple more days, so there may not be a Mug tomorrow, but there will be one Monday. Drink up.

Look on the bright side: At worst, we'll walk away from today's game having split six games at Wrigley.  At best, we will have won the second consecutive series at our main division rival's home park.

The matchup is worth watching regardless of the other storylines: Yovani Gallardo vs. Carlos Zambrano.  (I just about typed "Victor," but there is a limit to my wishful thinking.)  Here's the BR Game Preview.

With Soriano off the DL, the Cubs offense gets a little boost, but not as much as it would (in theory, anyway) if Sori would learn to hit further down in the lineup.  As a low-OBP, high-SLG guy, he would be more valuable there.  (Though not much--I just tried swapping Fukudome and Soriano and the difference works out to about 0.05 runs per game.)

Project-a-tron is eerily similar to last night, only with lower run totals.  I really, really hope it's right about the lower run totals.

• Brewers 4.7
• Cubs 4.6
• Brewers WinExp: 47.22%

Go Brewers!

I think I got a little too much frustration yesterday. Saturday night, the cruise control on my car went out about 350 miles from home. Narveson had a no-hitter going through 3 innings in Omaha yesterday before I jinxed it and he gave up the game-winning run in the 4th. Mike Cameron is jogging out his ground balls in AAA in a way that would make Johnny Estrada jealous. Omaha walked the bases loaded in the seventh, but Brad Nelson saw fit to swing and miss at 3 straight pitches to end the inning anyway.

Then I got back in the car and heard the last 3 innings of yesterday's game. One strategic note still irks me:

Craig Counsell walked in the 9th, which was great. So now we've got Bill Hall up, fresh off a seventh inning home run. Am I the only one who screamed when they told him to bunt? I know he's a big risk to strike out, but the pitcher can't find the strike zone and we handed them an out anyway. Advancing the runner via the sacrifice actually brought the win expectancy down, and was made completely irrelevant when Weeks walked too. Did this drive anyone else nuts? I had 300 more miles in the car to think about it, and it's still bugging me.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds have us at 84 wins and 19.7% to win the Central.

So Dave Bush has been sent to AAA to make room on the roster for Mike Cameron. Brewers Bar thinks Parra should've gone down instead. In-Between Hops says the buzz about Parra's inability to pitch deep into games is overblown and based on pitch counts. Today I have a new Fan Opinion Poll. I'm curious to hear what people think about this one. Results from last week's poll are below.

Adam Charles at Bugs and Cranks is using his excitement about the Cubs series to forget that the Brewers just lost to Wes Helms.

With the 16th pick in the first round, the Milwaukee Brewers selected Christian Friedrich, a LHP from Eastern Kentucky, in Minor League Ball's mock draft.

Phil Rogers ranked the Brewers 16th in his most recent power rankings, behind 3 NL Central teams. The Southpaw ranks them 8th and does a better job of including some eye candy with the rankings.

Speaking of rankings, Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun Times rated Miller Park 25th. I'll admit I haven't been to all (or even most) major league parks, and I'm not Miller Park's biggest fan, but I find 25th hard to believe.

On injuries:

Moises Alou may have broken his ankle in rehab.
Jorge Posada has a torn muscle in his rotator cuff.
John Smoltz left yesterday's start with discomfort in his shoulder.

No one's calling it an injury, but there does seem to be some concern and difference of opinion regarding Brett Myers' struggles to regain velocity.

No one, though, will doubt Joel Pineiro's flexibility.

Here are the results from last week's Fan Opinion Poll, with a record 168 votes:

• 48% of voters thought the Brewers should have 12 pitchers on their roster. 44% voted for 13.
• 25% of voters thought Derrick Turnbow should be the pitcher to go. 18% voted for Mitch Stetter and Seth McClung, 16% voted for Dave Bush and 15% voted for Manny Parra.
• 96% of voters thought Yovani Gallardo was brought back at just the right time.
• 69% of voters thought 3 consecutive days should be the limit for Eric Gagne.
• 36% of voters thought Ben Sheets will miss five to ten starts this season. 35% thought he will miss three to five.
• Ned Yost's approval rating is at 47%, with 22% disapproval and 29% unsure. He was at 78%/8%/12% last week.
• Doug Melvin's approval rating is at 83%, with 4% disapproval and 11% unsure. He was at 97%/0%/2% last week.
• 94% of voters approved of the Cameron/Hall/Braun move.
• 47% of voters approved of the decision to sign Eric Gagne, down from 61% last week.
• 30% of voters thought the Brewers shouldn't offer Ben Sheets a contract until after the season. 29% think they should do it now, and 25% think they shouldn't do it at all.

Full results here.

To cast your vote in this week's poll, Click here. Last week's poll set a turnout record for the third straight week. Thanks to everyone who helped promote it, and if you can help us out this week, please do so.

That's all for today. Drink up.

Suffice to say that while the records are the same, these teams are very different.  For instance, all of their center fielders are young and gritty, and the overall salary of their bullpen is less than what's in my jar of coins.

The matchup for the opener tonight at 7:05 CT is Scott Olsen vs. Yovani Gallardo.  It's tough not to get excited about a Gallardo start, and while Olsen is off to a good start, his 2007 ERA of 5.81 promises good things for Brewers fans as well. 

Here's the BR Game Preview.   Project-a-tron is down for site maintenance.

Go Brewers!

(Witty open goes here). It's time for a Frosty Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason odds: 85.5 wins and 21.7% chance of winning the Central.

A side note from the BP Odds: 21 games into the season, the D-Backs are already being given a 67% chance of winning the NL West, which was supposed to be one of baseball's tightest divisional races.

Jim Powell's blog may be the best place to start today. He talks about Fielder, Turnbow, Gabe Gross and Geoff Jenkins.

Tom H. notes that one year ago, April 23 of 2007, Derrick Turnbow also saved a game where Prince hit two home runs. Considering Turnbow hadn't saved a game since, I thought it was an interesting coincidence.

Can great Brewer moments influence history? Bugs and Cranks seems to think so.

The Hardball Times looks at the future of Yovani Gallardo.

ESPN the Magazine ranked the Brewers fourth in all of MLB in Fan Satisfaction Rankings. Just think where they'd rank if there were more toilets outside.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Rangers P Kason Gabbard has been DL'ed with a sore lower back.
Reds OF Norris Hopper was placed on the DL with "elbow inflammation."
Daisuke Matsuzaka missed last night's scheduled start with the flu.
Mariners P Carlos Silva left last night's game with a thigh injury. It doesn't appear to be serious.

If you missed it yesterday, or you read the site via RSS so you don't see Fanshots at all, the Reds fired GM Wayne Krivsky yesterday and replaced him with Walt Jocketty. It seems awfully early to be making big changes.

The Cubs picked up their 10,000th win last night. As Dave Pinto notes at Baseball Musings, that's about 75 wins/season since 1876.

Elsewhere in the Central, Fungoes decries the folly of having 13 pitchers on the Cardinals roster, but fails to mention that the Brewers had 14 pitchers during the same series.

Ah, the wonders of a Youtube era. Now, you too can bring your camera to the ballpark and shoot crappy, incoherent video of a Mets reliever responding to the drunken masses during warmups. If you're bored today, take a moment to look at some of the shooter's other "work" and feel better about your life.

Credibility fades fast when you do things like this: Last night, reports came out that Frank Thomas had signed with the A's. But he hasn't yet.

The circle of life continues: Gabe Gross was the odd man out in Milwaukee so he was traded to Tampa, causing Dan Johnson to be the odd man out for the second time in April.

Beyond the Box Score takes a great look at ball and strike calls and how they vary based on several demographic issues. An interesting confirmation of what we've suspected all along: veterans get calls.

True Blue LA takes a look at the world around him and reaches an interesting conclusion: Sabermetrics and stat work have become so commonplace that having a stat guy on hand no longer gives teams an advantage. He says Sabermetrics are dead, but that's like saying the internet is dead because everyone uses it.

Baseball Musings passes along a great list of hitting tips to distribute by age.

The Mariners are encouraging fans to bring their Nintendo DS to the game to chat with other fans, look at stats and order food and drinks from their seats. I have a DS, and if I could bring it to the game and do that, I'd absolutely bring it along.

We're only a couple of days in, but turnout so far has been underwhelming for this week's Fan Opinion Poll. If you haven't voted yet, please do so. Also, thanks to Dan Walsh at The Daily Drink for his help promoting it.

That's all for today. If you'd like to submit a link for inclusion in tomorrow's Mug, drop it in the comments. Drink up.

Happy Patriot Day, Brewer fans. I've been away from the TV, radio and computer for most of the last 3 days, but coming home today I see that the Brewers took two of three and should've swept the Reds, and open today's series with the Cardinals a game back of first place. It's time for a Frosty Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
ESPN Video Highlights
Baseball Digest Daily recaps
BP Postseason odds projecting the Brewers for 84 wins and a 23.6% shot at winning the Central.

Let's talk about Ben Sheets for a moment. The team says Sheets will only have to push his next start back a day. That doesn't seem serious, but at the same time, they've gone up to 14 pitchers on the roster just to make sure they have enough to cover the delay. Jim Powell also says Sheets is feeling better. I'm not entirely sure how keeping a guy like Mitch Stetter on the roster would fix the problem, even if he wasn't.

Inside the Book asks if teams overvalue guys with great stuff but questionable control. Since we seem to be having occasional debates lately about the value of Derrick Turnbow, I thought this belonged in the top half of the Mug.

Brian Shouse's streak of 83 consecutive appearances without allowing a home run was the 14th longest all time.

If you thought everyone loved Paul Molitor, it turns out it's only almost everyone.

Thanks to all 142 of you who voted in last week's fan opinion poll. The results:

• 74% of voters thought Dave Bush should move to the bullpen in place of Seth McClung when Gallardo returned.
• 45% of voters thought Eric Gagne's position as closer should be re-evaluated at the end of April. 32% thought he should be re-evaluated at the All Star Break and 21% think he's the closer indefinitely.
• 82% of voters thought Prince Fielder's slow start had nothing to do with becoming a vegetarian.
• 66% of voters thought the Brewers should make an effort to limit Manny Parra's innings.
• Of those voters, 68% thought it should be done by skipping his spot in the rotation when possible.
• Ned Yost's approval rating is at 78%, up from 77% last week, with 8% disapproval and 12% unsure.
• Doug Melvin's approval rating is at 97%, with one lone no vote and 2% unsure. Last week he was at 91%/5%/2%
• 96% of voters were in favor of the Cameron/Hall/Braun move.
• 61% of voters were in favor of the Gagne signing, with 17% opposed and 21% unsure.
• 35% of voters thought the team should offer Ben Sheets a long-term deal, with 29% wanting to wait until after the season, 19% opposed and 16% unsure.

Full results here. I'm hoping to write this week's poll today and post it later or tomorrow. If you have questions you'd like to see included, drop them in the comments.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Doug Davis is recovering well from surgery and throwing off flat ground. He could return in May.
Kosuke Fukudome missed last night's game with a cyst above his right eye, but should play today.
Chipper Jones was pulled from yesterday's game with a quad injury.
Alex Rodriguez was also pulled from yesterday's game with a quad injury.
Jimmy Rollins has been placed on the DL, but since he pinch-hit Saturday, he's not eligible to be placed retroactively.
David Weathers has been placed on the DL with nerve inflammation in his elbow.

Frank Thomas was released rather abruptly yesterday. Obviously, this will lead to lots of speculation about who he could help, but Landon Evanson at Bugs and Cranks likes him as a Twin.

This would be a much better reason to be cursed: Historical evidence suggests the Cubs may have thrown the 1918 World Series.

Now available: Hideo Nomo. Potentially available May 1: Bartolo Colon.

Bucs Dugout's tournament to determine the worst GM in baseball has moved on to the second round. Voting is open for the first matchup, Jon Daniels v. Bill Bavasi.

And while you're voting, go here as well and help me fill out my AL awards ballots. Thanks!

Drink up.

Now this, my friends, is a good matchup.  Yovani Gallardo makes his season debut for the Brewers, while Aaron Harang goes for the Reds.  Joe Dillon was sent to Nashville to make room for Yo, leaving the Brewers with a truly remarkable 14 pitchers.

Anthony W has the Brewers lineup, which contains no surprises.  Here's the Baseball-Reference Game Preview. 

The project-a-tron is baffled by the evenness of it all, as it was yesterday.  The only difference today is one percentage point and lower run totals:

• Brewers 4.7
• Reds 4.3
• Brewers WinExp: 50%

Let's go Crew!