Friday's Frosty Mug
Today's Mug is a little short on time, so my apologies if it seems rushed.
Let's open with a Sabathia Smorgasbord:
- The Dodgers are reportedly getting ready to make an offer.
- The Giants may be getting ready to do so as well.
- The Yankees may be putting a deadline on their offer to Sabathia.
- The White Sox may be considering getting involved.
If the Brewers lose Sheets, they may get better defensively. Baseball Musings' Probabilistic Model of Range ranked Brewer pitchers dead last defensively in 2008, and Ben Sheets was the worst pitcher, scoring 57.52, where 100 is average. Dave Bush was also near the bottom.
As noted in the FanShots, the Brewers added four minor league pitchers to their 40-man roster (Mark Rogers, Omar Aguilar, Cody Scarpetta and Alexandre Periard) to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. Of the four, only Aguilar strikes me as someone another team would consider keeping on their roster all season. Meanwhile, Paul DePodesta explains why adding a player to your 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft makes it easier to lose them later.
Four Brewer prospects (although one is a former Brewer now) made the TOPPS AA All-Stars: Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar, Michael Brantley and Angel Salome.
On the flip side, Corey Hart's 2008 OBP was the fourth worst among full time outfielders.
On the hot stove:
Marlins: The team and Hanley Ramirez reportedly have differing opinions on whether or not he should play winter ball. The team has told him to stay home and rest.
Phillies: Could be looking to make a move on Raul Ibanez.
Royals: Acquired Coco Crisp from the Red Sox for RP Ramon Ramirez.
In other news, the owners have agreed to ensure all playoff games go at least nine innings, but won't make a decision on blackout policy until January.
A scheduling note: I'm leaving in a few hours to go hunting for several days, and while I'll be available to write on occasion in the evenings, my mornings will be tied up. Roguejim has agreed to handle the Mug for a couple of days early next week, and I'll be back on Friday. The Mug may take a couple of days off for the holiday in the middle. While I'm gone, I'm still hoping to finish my AFL recap and I'll likely be lurking from time to time.
Oh, and I'm not worried about increasing competition.
Drink up.
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Tuesday's Frosty Mug
I don't really have much for you today, but the 2009 Marcel Projections are out, so if you've got a big empty gap in your schedule that's usually filled by the Mug but isn't today, you could go play with those. I've got them open in another window right now, waiting for a handful of free minutes.
Everyone else with time on their hands is talking about the NL MVP voting and the various BBWAA writers who came in with off the wall selections. This time the conversation hits close to home, as one of the writers taking a lot of criticism is our own Tom H, who had Albert Pujols seventh on his ballot, behind Prince Fielder. That's both the lowest Pujols appeared and the highest Fielder appeared on any ballot. Let's wander through the field of frustration for a moment:
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs wants to know how Chase Utley finished 15th. So do some of the commenters in this FanShot.
- Chuckie Hacks called Tom H.'s ballot "asinine" and wonders how Carlos Delgado could've ended up ahead of Pujols.
- Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Box Score says the most valuable Brewer wasn't neither Braun or Fielder, it was J.J. Hardy.
- Baseball Musings thought Braun belonged around eighth. That's about where I expected him to finish too.
- The commenters over at Baseball Think Factory are having some fun with Tom H.'s ballot too.
- Goatriders of the Apocalypse thought the 2008 NL MVP was...Brad Lidge? I still have no idea how Lidge got two first place votes.
- The Griddle wasn't a fan of Tom H.'s ballot either.
- Lookout Landing is also unimpressed with Chase Utley's 15th place finish.
- Peter Gammons is upset about Hanley Ramirez's 11th place finish.
- Todd Zolecki reveals the one voter who left Ryan Howard off of his MVP ballot.
Also, Hot Foot thinks the Mets should sign Ben Sheets.
If the BBWAA voters had seen this, they probably would've voted about the same anyway: Bill James says Prince Fielder is the seventh worst baserunner in baseball.
If only all the decisions were this easy: The Brewers must either place Mark Rogers on the 40-man roster, or risk losing him in the Rule 5 Draft. I don't think there's much risk there.
Everyone knows versatility is an important skill. That's why the Brewers had two catchers in the top ten and bottom ten in Recondite Baseball's minor league CS% leaderboards.
On the hot stove:
Braves: Submitted a contract offer to Will Ohman yesterday.
Giants: Signed Jeremy Affeldt yesterday, the first free agent of the offseason to sign with a new team.
Mets: Are reportedly making offers to Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes and Derek Lowe.
Phillies: are reportedly pursuing relievers Juan Cruz, Doug Brocail and Russ Springer.
Red Sox: Tim Wakefield may retire due to pain in his throwing shoulder.
Elsewhere, it appears the Mariners could announce a new manager as soon as today and it won't be Ned Yost or Willie Randolph.
Matt LaPorta has had quite the season. He played for two minor league teams, was part of a blockbuster trade, got hit in the head by a pitch in the Olympics, and got the flu and fouled a pitch off his ankle in Venezuela. He returned home yesterday and my guess would be he's ready for a break.
A tech note: MLB.com is dumping Microsoft Silverlight and switching over to Flash. All I knew about Silverlight was that it was a pain to have to tell my computer I didn't want it every time I logged into Gameday Audio. Good riddance.
Oh, and the Brewers never really found another blogger to pick up the slack after Taylor Green was sent home from the AFL, so we'll have to settle for Mariner prospect Joe Woerman's story about getting nailed by a speed limit enforcement camera.
Drink up.
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Breaking Down the Prospect List
Recently, after being deluged with requests (okay, there were two), I added a prospect ranking to the left-hand sidebar. The off-day today seemed like a good time to expand a bit on my reasons and thinking. Besides, nothing generates good debate like somewhat arbitrary, mostly uninformed hierarchies!
01. Mat Gamel 3B (22) [AA] - .373/.434/.630/1.065, 21 errors
Breakout player of the year has gone from Ryan Braun Lite to Ryan Braun, which unfortunately includes the errors as well. Gamel has better range than Braun did, and with the system choked with outfielders, he'll get the next year and a half to prove he can't play third.
02. Matt LaPorta OF (23) [AA] - .292/.404/.596/1.000
LaPorta looks for all the world like a right-handed Pat Burrell, again including the iffy corner outfield defense. He's not the pure hitter that Gamel is, and he doesn't have the defensive upside, but he has the best plate approach in the system.
03. Alcides Escobar SS (21) [AA] - .326/.359/.435/.794, 21/26 SB
Escobar differs from the other position players near the top of this list in that he is an elite glove man rather than a defensive liability; though he's committed 15 errors already, that total is inflated by his excellent range. His plate discipline hasn't improved (his walk and strikeout rates are almost identical to those from his stint in Huntsville last year), but he's flashing significantly more power than ever before, which is a great sign.
04. Jeremy Jeffress RSP (20) [A+] - 41.7 IP, 36 H, 22 R, 22 ER, 5 HR, 15 BB, 56 K, 1.68 GO/AO, .234 BAA
The only pitcher in the system even remotely close to being a future ace at the Major League level, Jeffress throws high-90s heat, touching 100, and his slider and changeup are also potential plus pitches. He’s had a couple disastrous starts, but even in those he dominated for multiple innings before collapsing, something that could be due to lapses in focus. He’s also seen an intriguing rise in his groundball ratio this year.
05. Angel Salome C (22) [AA] - .346/.404/.534/.938, 24% CS (18/74), 8 PB
Salome might be the best prospect in the system due to position scarcity if he could actually catch, but he can’t really, despite possessing a good body for the position, which is another way of saying he’s too short (5’7") to play anywhere else on the field. He does have a missile for an arm, but it’s lacking a guidance system so far. On the offensive side of things, there’s little question that he can hit, and he’s seen a nice recovery in his walk rate from last year, especially as the season has gone on (12/15 BB/K in 82 June AB’s as his average has come down from stratospheric to merely good).
06. Jonathan Lucroy C (22) [A+] - .311/.384/.527/.911 38% CS (22/58), 4 PB
Only five days younger than Salome, Lucroy (pronounced like LaCroix) is hot on Angel’s heels as a prospect. A recent promotion to Brevard County hasn’t slowed him down at all, and a 31/40 BB/K ratio tells the story of his advanced plate approach. He has a rep as an offense-first catcher, but his stats look pretty good and the pitchers don’t seem to be saying anything bad about him. Lucroy’s also has stolen 8 bases while only being caught once.
07. Taylor Green 3B (21) [A+] - .302/.384/.459/.843, 11 E
Last year’s most pleasant surprise has carried his success over to the tough hitting milieu of the Florida State League. Gritty off the charts, nobody particularly likes Green’s tools, but he seems to be getting the job done just fine so far; next year will be a pivotal one for Green’s prospect status, as the jump to AA is the biggest one in the minors. Green’s a natural second baseman but plays an acceptable third base, a position he will likely continue to occupy until Mat Gamel claims it. He’s the system’s best Canadian prospect.
08. Michael Brantley CF (21) [AA] - .320/.403/.409/.812, 23/29 SB
Brantley came into the year as a big-time sleeper after consistently posting .300/.400 AVG/OBP stats throughout his minor league career but utterly lacking power, and he’s awakened with a roar, morphing into what could be a great leadoff hitter with stats similar to Luis Castillo’s, only from the center field position. He’s not a particularly good defensive center fielder yet, but he’s a great athlete and should improve.
09. Zach Braddock LSP (20) [A+] - 43.7 IP, 34 H, 24 R, 21 ER, 2 HR, 27 BB, 51 K, 0.67 GO/AO, .215 BAA
Braddock was the pitching version of Taylor Green last year, blowing both hitters and stats nerds away with his huge strikeout totals before being shut down with shoulder problems. Fully recovered after a delayed start to the year, Braddock has had his ups and downs at Brevard County, but has retained his dominance, as you can see from his strikeout rate and batting average against. Walks, which weren’t a problem for him at all last year, have really plagued him so far. He doesn’t have Jeffress’ pure stuff, relying on a fastball that’s about 90 MPH, but lefties who can strike people out like this get a lot of chances. Again like Green, the jump to AA next year will be quite telling for Braddock.
10. Cole Gillespie LF (24) [AA] - .277/.378/.494/.872, 7/7 SB
LaPorta Lite, Gillespie is even older and his production has resembles his teammate’s in shape but with less amplitude. He’s a polished, professional hitter who will at the very least be a fourth outfielder, but he’s probably limited to left field defensively because shoulder surgery has ruined his throwing arm.
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Prospect Progress Report
I like following prospects. It's like having Christmas Eve all the time, every player a wrapped present of infinite promise, each with the potential to be a Red Ryder carbine-action BB gun with a compass in the stock. Sure, sometimes they turn out to be socks, but there's always another present to open. With that in mind, let's see how our Christmas is shaping up:
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