As you probably know by now, the Brewers sent the Giants lefty pitcher Steve Hammond and olympic sprinter Darren Ford in exchange for Ray Durham and about $1.5MM.  If you want to read some immediate opinions on both sides of the aisle, here you go.

In that thread, I made it pretty clear I was against the deal.  I want to also make it clear that while guys like me tend to get worked up about roster tweaks, I recognize that the overall impact here, whether good or bad, is likely to be small.

First off, I view Darren Ford as no more than a throw-in.  If he has a major-league future, it's not even as a fourth outfielder--he'd be a fifth-outfielder/pinch-runner/25th-man type guy.  That is probably his upside.  He's exactly the sort of player that should be included in a deal like this, since the Giants seem to like that sort of guy.

The debate in the thread I linked above was more about Steve Hammond.  Nobody thinks Hammond is likely to be a difference-maker in the bigs; it might even be optimistic to think he's likely to crack the Brewers starting rotation.  The question is: In a deal where we pay $1.5MM for very little return (more on that in a minute), should we be giving up anything of possible value?

As long-time readers know, I'm fixated on the importance of rotation depth.  The Brewers had it this year (though I didn't realize McClung would be it), and it paid off.  Mark Shapiro, the Indians GM, has said you need to go into a season 7 or 8 deep, and he's absolutely right.  We could've kept Hammond in the minors as insurance through 2010, and while he'd never be more than a 5th starter, he would make it that much less likely we'd need to turn to next year's Jeff Weaver, Sidney Ponson, or Nelson Figueroa.  Maybe we can replace him on the cheap; maybe he's not any better than guys like DiFelice and Lindsey Gulin; but I think there's a reasonable chance he's better than the other options.

Obviously, we're splitting hairs here.  But if we're measuring the value of acquiring 36-year-old Ray Durham...well, hairs need to be split.

We're bringing in Durham to replace Joe Dillon.  That certainly improves the team in terms of veteran savviness and name-recognition, but what does it do on the field?

Durham is a switch-hitter, which is nice for late-inning strategery.  However, I keep hearing that he's the "lefty bat" that we need off the bench.  Sorry--no.  He does stand on the correct side of the plate against right-handed pitchers, but that isn't what matters--I could do that, too.  This year is the first season since 2002 that Durham has hit better against righties.  Given the last three, or five, years of data, Durham's splits look a lot like those of a typical right-handed hitter.

You might also hear that Durham is a "proven on-base guy," and hence a good option to sub for Weeks in the leadoff spot.  This year, indeed, he has been, with a .385 OBP.  His career OBP is .352--worse than Rickie's second half Marcel projection. 

Further, all of this year's numbers are BABIP-inflated.  His batted balls have been dropping at a .349 rate compared to a .306 career average.  If anything, I'd expect him to be *below* career average, since he's older and slower than he used to be.  If you assume his BABIP should be at his career average level, he's gotten 9 extra hits this year.  Take those away, and his season line is 259/355/369.  The OBP is still hanging in there, but...we're spending money on this?

Turning all of this into a mini-projection, I can borrow battlekow's work and give you Dillon's and Durham's Marcel projections for the rest of the year:

• Durham: .259/.335/.412
  
• Dillon: .262/.338/.399

Dramatic, eh?  Durham has virtually no defensive value--he's a below-average second baseman in the field, and we have Counsell as a backup at that position.  Heck, *Counsell* is OPSing .705 against righties which, if you assume Durham has an even platoon split (that's generous) is only a bit less than what we can expect from our new acquisition.

In a nutshell, it looks to me like we got ourselves a left-handed pinch-hitter who isn't really a lefty and isn't much of a hitter.  Since we're just as well off plugging in Counsell two days a week (his defense more than makes up for a 30-50 point OPS advantage), we could take our pick of defensively-challenged lefties on the market.  In fact, we wouldn't have to turn to the market--Brad Nelson's MLE versus righties is 276/358/423.  I don't want Nelson playing second base, but I don't particularly want to see Durham out there when Counsell is on the bench, either.

And that brings me (blessedly) to my last thought.  When I was thinking through the various trade options at second base, I realized that I left out one possible replacement...yes, our very own Craig Counsell.  He's a lefty, he's a great fielder, and if we need to give Rickie a little extra motivation (that's been cited as a reason for the trade), giving Craig 3-4 starts per week would do that just as well as giving Durham 2.

Counsell isn't as good a hitter as Rickie, but his OPS against righties--705--is better than Rickie's this year, and it's pretty close to Rickie's career numbers vRHP.

In my view, then, we gave up a potentially useful player plus a decent chunk of change for a guy that isn't as good as players we already have.  As I said at the outset, it's not going to hurt us much even if it does turn out negative.  But it would be nice if our postseason-directed moves actually made the team better *now*.  I'm not at all sure we did that.

Recently, after being deluged with requests (okay, there were two), I added a prospect ranking to the left-hand sidebar. The off-day today seemed like a good time to expand a bit on my reasons and thinking. Besides, nothing generates good debate like somewhat arbitrary, mostly uninformed hierarchies!

01. Mat Gamel 3B (22) [AA] - .373/.434/.630/1.065, 21 errors
Breakout player of the year has gone from Ryan Braun Lite to Ryan Braun, which unfortunately includes the errors as well. Gamel has better range than Braun did, and with the system choked with outfielders, he'll get the next year and a half to prove he can't play third.

02. Matt LaPorta OF (23) [AA] - .292/.404/.596/1.000
LaPorta looks for all the world like a right-handed Pat Burrell, again including the iffy corner outfield defense. He's not the pure hitter that Gamel is, and he doesn't have the defensive upside, but he has the best plate approach in the system.

03. Alcides Escobar SS (21) [AA] - .326/.359/.435/.794, 21/26 SB
Escobar differs from the other position players near the top of this list in that he is an elite glove man rather than a defensive liability; though he's committed 15 errors already, that total is inflated by his excellent range. His plate discipline hasn't improved (his walk and strikeout rates are almost identical to those from his stint in Huntsville last year), but he's flashing significantly more power than ever before, which is a great sign.

04. Jeremy Jeffress RSP (20) [A+] - 41.7 IP, 36 H, 22 R, 22 ER, 5 HR, 15 BB, 56 K, 1.68 GO/AO, .234 BAA
The only pitcher in the system even remotely close to being a future ace at the Major League level, Jeffress throws high-90s heat, touching 100, and his slider and changeup are also potential plus pitches. He’s had a couple disastrous starts, but even in those he dominated for multiple innings before collapsing, something that could be due to lapses in focus. He’s also seen an intriguing rise in his groundball ratio this year.

05. Angel Salome C (22) [AA] - .346/.404/.534/.938, 24% CS (18/74), 8 PB
Salome might be the best prospect in the system due to position scarcity if he could actually catch, but he can’t really, despite possessing a good body for the position, which is another way of saying he’s too short (5’7") to play anywhere else on the field. He does have a missile for an arm, but it’s lacking a guidance system so far. On the offensive side of things, there’s little question that he can hit, and he’s seen a nice recovery in his walk rate from last year, especially as the season has gone on (12/15 BB/K in 82 June AB’s as his average has come down from stratospheric to merely good).

06. Jonathan Lucroy C (22) [A+] - .311/.384/.527/.911 38% CS (22/58), 4 PB
Only five days younger than Salome, Lucroy (pronounced like LaCroix) is hot on Angel’s heels as a prospect. A recent promotion to Brevard County hasn’t slowed him down at all, and a 31/40 BB/K ratio tells the story of his advanced plate approach. He has a rep as an offense-first catcher, but his stats look pretty good and the pitchers don’t seem to be saying anything bad about him. Lucroy’s also has stolen 8 bases while only being caught once.

07. Taylor Green 3B (21) [A+] - .302/.384/.459/.843, 11 E
Last year’s most pleasant surprise has carried his success over to the tough hitting milieu of the Florida State League. Gritty off the charts, nobody particularly likes Green’s tools, but he seems to be getting the job done just fine so far; next year will be a pivotal one for Green’s prospect status, as the jump to AA is the biggest one in the minors. Green’s a natural second baseman but plays an acceptable third base, a position he will likely continue to occupy until Mat Gamel claims it. He’s the system’s best Canadian prospect.

08. Michael Brantley CF (21) [AA] - .320/.403/.409/.812, 23/29 SB
Brantley came into the year as a big-time sleeper after consistently posting .300/.400 AVG/OBP stats throughout his minor league career but utterly lacking power, and he’s awakened with a roar, morphing into what could be a great leadoff hitter with stats similar to Luis Castillo’s, only from the center field position. He’s not a particularly good defensive center fielder yet, but he’s a great athlete and should improve.

09. Zach Braddock LSP (20) [A+] - 43.7 IP, 34 H, 24 R, 21 ER, 2 HR, 27 BB, 51 K, 0.67 GO/AO, .215 BAA
Braddock was the pitching version of Taylor Green last year, blowing both hitters and stats nerds away with his huge strikeout totals before being shut down with shoulder problems. Fully recovered after a delayed start to the year, Braddock has had his ups and downs at Brevard County, but has retained his dominance, as you can see from his strikeout rate and batting average against. Walks, which weren’t a problem for him at all last year, have really plagued him so far. He doesn’t have Jeffress’ pure stuff, relying on a fastball that’s about 90 MPH, but lefties who can strike people out like this get a lot of chances. Again like Green, the jump to AA next year will be quite telling for Braddock.

10. Cole Gillespie LF (24) [AA] - .277/.378/.494/.872, 7/7 SB
LaPorta Lite, Gillespie is even older and his production has resembles his teammate’s in shape but with less amplitude. He’s a polished, professional hitter who will at the very least be a fourth outfielder, but he’s probably limited to left field defensively because shoulder surgery has ruined his throwing arm.

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Nashville (3-13 Record) Notes:

Season Record: 3-13, -6.5 GB, 4th place (last) in the PCL’s American North Division

Lost (10-15) @ Albuquerque
Sounds fail to come back after allowing 10 runs in the 2nd inning.
Nic Ungs (L, 1-2), 1.2 IP, 7 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – 10.32 ERA, Game Score: 6
Russell Branyan-3B, 3-4, HR (3), 2 R, RBI, 2 BB, K - .404 BA
Vinny Rottino-C, 2-4, HR (2), R, 3 RBI, SF - .189 BA
Brad Nelson-1B, 2-5, HR (3), 2 R, RBI, GIDP - .333 BA
Tony Gwynn-CF, 1-2, RBI, 2 BB, SB - .500 BA

Huntsville (10-6 overall) Notes:

1st Half Record: 10-6, -2.0 GB, 2nd place in the Southern League’s North Division

Won (10-2) @ Mississippi
Steven Hammond (W,2-1), 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – 3.98 ERA, Game Score: 63
Matt LaPorta-LF, 2-3, 2B, HR (2), R, 3 RBI, BB, HBP - .275 BA
Alcides Escobar-SS, 2-5, HR (2), 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 GIDP - .210 BA
Cole Gillespie-RF, 1-2, 3B, 3 R, RBI, 2 BB, SB - .209 BA

Brevard County (10-6 overall) Notes:

1st Half Record: 10-6, +2.0 GA, tied for 1st place in the FSL’s East Division

Lost (3-8) vs. Daytona
Michael McClendon (L, 1-1), 7 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 1 K – 6.55 ERA, Game Score: 30
Lorenzo Cain-RF, 1-3, 2B, RBI, K, SF - .242
Chuckie Caufield-DH, 1-3, R, BB, K - .282 BA
Kenneth Holmberg-2B, 0-3, 2 K - .243 BA

West Virginia (4-12 overall) Notes:

1st Half Record: 4-12, -7.0 GB, 8th place (last) in the SAL’s Northern Division

Game rained out and will be made up as part of a doubleheader on Sunday.