Here's the game stuff, let's get past it so I can get to breaking news:

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps

Now, this morning's big news: According to the JS blog, the Brewers are about to announce they've signed Ryan Braun to the longest and largest contract in team history. It's mostly speculation at this point, but a news conference is scheduled for 10 am to make it official.

It turns out David Riske hyperextended his elbow in last night's game. He's day-to-day.

Greener on the Other Side has crunched the numbers and thinks Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks' stats will improve in the coming weeks.

On injuries:

Red Sox P Clay Buchholz is headed to the DL with a broken nail. Seriously.
Pirates C Ryan Doumit has been placed on the DL with a broken thumb.
Mets P Scott Schoeneweis spent the overnight hours Wednesday in the hospital with what turned out to be the flu.
Cubs PH/OF Daryle Ward may have a herniated disc in his back.

The baseball community as a whole is still trying to figure out exactly what happened to Andruw Jones, but Sons of Steve Garvey has uncovered a restraining order that may have something to do with it.

Yadier Molina will not be suspended for his tirade and his decision to strip out of his catcher's gear and leave it littered all over the field over the weekend. That's an interesting precedent for MLB to set.

Oh, and The Ultimate Warrior has a Twitter account.

That's all for today. Drink up.

So the Brewers win, the Cardinals lose, the Cubs lose, and they appear to be signing Jim Edmonds. That's win-win-win-win if I ever saw it.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps

The circle of life continues: Chris Capuano will have Tommy John surgery as soon as Thursday, giving up the effort to come back without it. Also on Thursday, 2006 first round pick Jeremy Jeffress will return from his 50-game drug suspension and report to Brevard County.

Beyond that, it's kind of a slow day for Brewer news. Baseball Analysts, though, did take a look at players looking to avoid a sophomore slump, including one guy you may have heard of who's hit 6 extra base hits in 3 days.

On injuries:

Milton Bradley was held out of last night's Rangers game with a sore shoulder.
J.D. Drew injured his wrist making a sliding catch and is day-to-day.
A's 2B Mark Ellis missed last night's game with a hamstring injury, and will miss a few more.
O's C Ramon Hernandez missed last night's game with a sprained left wrist.
Reds SS Jeff Keppinger fouled a ball off his knee last night and has a fractured kneecap.
O's 3B Melvin Mora was hit by a ball in warmups yesterday and missed last night's game.

If you haven't been paying attention, Lance Berkman is pretty hot right now. He's hitting .605 in his last 11 games, and has scored a run in 15 straight games, leaving him 2 games shy of tying the NL record Rickie Weeks tied earlier this season.

Berkman also won this week's BaseballHappenings blogpoll for NL MVP. Brandon Webb ran away from the field in the Cy Young voting, and Geovany Soto dominated the Rookie voting. Here's the ballot I cast:

MVP:
1. Lance Berkman
2. Chase Utley
3. Chipper Jones

Cy Young:
1. Brandon Webb
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Carlos Zambrano

Rookie of the Year:
1. Geovany Soto
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Kosuke Fukudome

Click the link above for the full results.

A rare former Brewer trifecta happened yesterday: The Mets designated Nelson Figueroa for assignment, called up Claudio Vargas and activated Matt Wise from the DL in the same day.

Oh, and here's a story about Tigers P Nate Robertson's unrequited love for bats.

Drink up.

So, sometime around the sixth inning of last night's game, I got an email from a Cubs fan, offering a thank you for taking 3 of 4 from the Cardinals. Just to make sure he didn't get too far ahead of himself, I sent him this.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps

Obviously, it's smiles all around after Dave Bush put up a nice performance last night and Ryan Braun's bat sent a couple more baseballs screaming into the masses. But, in the JS Online game story, there's still a hint of Ned being Ned:

Kudos to Anthony Witrado for publishing that exchange and coming through with more than just the "it's early" refrain.

Adam Charles at Bugs and Cranks thinks last night's game was just part of an elaborate plot by Tony LaRussa. We're still waiting for the twist.

The Grand National Championships has a quick rant on bullpen management and closers. I will give credit to Ned for pitching Gagne in a non-save situation last night and giving him an opportunity to straighten himself out.

Last night's game didn't involve a save situation, but it did involve two teams going closer by committee. Baseball Musings asks what happens if it works.

Not only did Dave Bush pick up his first win of the season last night, he also qualified to start in row 7 of the Hank Aaron 755, Big League Stew's race for players with NASCAR names.

The Padres have designated Rule 5 pick Callix Crabbe for assignment (also noted here in the Fanshots), meaning the Brewers could have him back. Al doesn't seem to think they'll be interested, but it's middle infield depth, how could they not be?

On injuries:

Rafael Furcal will miss the upcoming series with the Brewers after being placed on the DL with a lower back injury.
Marlins P Scott Olsen isn't hurt, but he was having a hard time regaining velocity after his 8 2/3 inning, 121 pitch outing against the Brewers last week.

Here's pretty much all you need to know about Dayn Perry: He thinks Carlos Zambrano should win the Cy Young even though Brandon Webb is 8-0, has thrown more innings, struck out more batters and has a lower WHIP. I know compiling award ballots can be hard, but writing Webb in for Cy Young is a no-brainer at this point.

Apparently he hits other teams, too: Lance Berkman had stretches last week where he went 16-for-20 and 19-for-25. That second feat had only been accomplished once in the last 50 years.

David Sloane is the agent for Carlos Delgado. He's making Delgado a lot of money, but the Mets 1B is his only client. Why, you ask? Because he's insane.

Oh, and here's video of an unassisted triple play.

Drink up.

Remember Saturday, when I Mugged from the road? I'm back on the road, and the Brewers are still losing. I'm sorry this Mug is late, but breakfast closed at 9, so it took full focus to finish 3 laps in time.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps

Notable by their absence yesterday: Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and Jason Kendall. Apparently it was just a scheduled off day for almost half the starting position players, though.

The Yost Infection says it's time for a managerial change, even though most of this team's problems aren't Ned's fault. The time for a change was September of last year. The story now is that it hasn't happened yet.

Speaking of looming decisions, Derrick Turnbow will clear waivers soon. Looks like he's headed to Nashville.

On a positive note, Beyond the Box Score compares Matt LaPorta to Ryan Braun.

The Cub Reporter ranks Ben Sheets 4th among NL Central aces. He wants your vote to help rank them.

Or, if watching the Brewers is too much for you to handle sober, try out this drinking game. By the fifth or so, people will be stacking cups on your head.

On injuries:

Padres reliever Kevin Cameron is on the DL with an elbow strain.
Doug Davis is free of cancer. Sighs of relief all around.
Johnny Estrada is back on the DL with an inflamed nerve in his elbow.
Orlando Hernandez is no longer in a walking boot. He's one step closer to throwing the banana.
Dodgers P Esteban Loaiza is on the DL with spasms in his shoulder.
Nats C Paul Lo Duca has a broken hand and has been DL'ed.
Twins reliever Pat Neshek will have his elbow examined today after leaving last night's game.
Mets OF Angel Pagan is day-to-day with a bruised shoulder.
Braves P Brayan Pena is on the DL with a back strain.
Twins IF Nick Punto was scratched from last night's game with tightness in his hamstring.

Despite the hubbub about the Brewers only going as far as Prince Fielder will carry them, Recondite baseball notes that no Brewers make the list of top or bottom 20 in win-loss splits.

The Marlins are hot, but there's still plenty of great seats available at their games.

Reds Insider notes that new GM Walt Jocketty will get to rework his team in a hurry - the Reds will have 13 free agents after the season.

Here's video of Richie Sexson charging the mound last night. Two notes:

1) That pitch wasn't that close.
2) Richie, you're 6'6", did you really need to throw the helmet at the guy?

That's all for today. Drink up.

There's nothing like a baseball game to make a long road trip seem shorter. Take yesterday, for example. I was just getting in the car in Kansas when the game started, I was pumping gas in Missouri when Mike Cameron hit the home run to make it 6-2, I was scrambling through my errands in Des Moines in the top of the 9th, and I still felt like I had just left home when I damn near drove off the road in the bottom of the 9th. I also have a sore spot on my forehead from banging it against the steering wheel near Iowa City in the 12th.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 79.3 wins and a 8.5% shot at the Central.

I probably don't need to tell you the obvious today, but Tom H. wants you to know Eric Gagne leads the league in blown saves.

Jim Powell also blogged from Houston, with one positive note: Ben Sheets should pass Teddy Higuera for first on the Brewers' all-time strikeout list Saturday.

Phil Rogers ranks the Brewers 20th in his most recent power poll.

Ken Rosenthal, via MLB Trade Rumors, says 4 teams are interested in Derrick Turnbow. The Rangers are not one of them.

The Cub Reporter continues their position-by-position look at the NL Central, and wants your vote. Here are the three that were posted since Saturday, with the TCR rankings:

Left Field: Ryan Braun 4th
Center Field: Mike Cameron 3rd
Right Field: Corey Hart 1st

On injuries:

Twins P Scott Baker left his start early and will have an MRI today on his injured groin.
Royals P John Bale was attacked by THE SPAZZOSAURUS!
Red Sox OF Brandon Moss had an emergency appendectomy Saturday night.
Dontrelle Willis suffered a setback in a minor league game in Toledo, has been called back from his rehab assignment.

Also, best wishes go out to Braves broadcaster Joe Simpson, who had an emergency appendectomy yesterday.

All of a sudden, posts like this one seem relevant here, too: U.S.S. Mariner takes a look at what it takes to work past a deficit and regain a division lead.

Finally, you may have known that Al Simmons hit more home runs than any other major leaguer born in Wisconsin, with 307. But can you name the leaders from all 49 other states, and the District of Columbia? If you can, that's sad. If you can't, Recondite Baseball has the list.

Drink up.

To listen to the announcers last night and read the paper the last few days, you'd think that we left center field and the number two spot empty for the first 25 games, just waiting to get Mike Cameron back so that we could really start our season.

Cameron's a good player, and he's definitely better than the alternatives.  Yes, even Gabe Kapler.  But let's be reasonable and try to get a sense of how much Cameron is likely to help this team.

Oddly enough, one possible answer is: Not very much.

Granted, Kapler and Tony Gwynn probably played above their heads, but including last night's game (because I'm lazy), the aggregate center field line for the Brewers so far is 294/342/451.  That's pretty darn good for center field--in fact, it's as far above average for the position as any other position on the club.  (I know, that isn't saying much.)  Even more impressive when you consider it included 44 PAs of Gabe Gross's sub-300 SLG, and 1 PA of Hernan Iribarren's OPS of zero.

Click over to FanGraphs if you want to see a whole bunch of projections for Cameron.  My system of choice, ZiPS, gives Cameron a 254/341/447 line.  In other words, basically the same as we've gotten so far.

As I've said, we couldn't have expected the platoon (Kaplynn?) to keep producing at that level, but at the plate, Cameron is probably not going to give us a boost. 

If you want to compare Cameron's offense to what he is replacing on the '07 team, we'll have to look back at the glory days of the Menchkins platoon.  Hall and Braun are probably going to give us about what they gave us last year (more of Braun, but probably not quite so phenomenal), so on offense, Cameron steps in for the left fielders.

Last year, the two-headed monster gave us production of 261/318/453.  It's a little worse than the Cameron projections, but not enough to make a big difference.  So again, at the plate, acquiring Cameron is a wash.  (On the field, anyway; off the field, Cameron is cheaper than Menchkins was, uses one fewer roster spot, and doesn't require special hat orders.)

Of course, I've gotten an awful long ways into a discussion of Mike Cameron without touching on his defense.  I guess I saved the best for last.

As you all probably know, Cameron is an elite defender.  Defensive metrics make it hard to anoint a winner, but he is possibly the best center fielder in baseball.  According to RZR (leaders in 2007 , or 2006), he's among the top few in the league along with Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran, and Juan Pierre.  (RZR doesn't take outfield arms into effect.)

Another data point: according to MGL's proprietary Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) system, Cameron was among the top CFs from 2000-2003 , as well.  (You'll have to scroll down to find the CFs.)  In fact, in that span, he's the highest-rated player who was a regular for the better part of those four years.  I wouldn't put too much stock in 5-8 year old defensive data--guys slow down, even guys who take a lot of stimulants--but it shows that the 06-07 data is no fluke.

There's no good way to know whether Kapler and Gwynn would have been as good in the field as Cameron will be; we just won't accumulate the data.  (*Someone* might have play-by-play and hit location data for Gwynn's time in the minors, but *someone* is kind of lazy in crunching the numbers.) 

As I noted in my article about defense earlier this week, the outfield has been strong, and it seems like a good bet that Ryan Braun is not to blame for that.  So as the conventional wisdom would indicate, Kapler is a pretty good defensive center fielder, though almost certainly not in the same league as Cameron.

So...that's what we have to expect from our shiny new toy.  He's not our savior--there are a lot of other bats in the lineup that have to play that role right now--but he is a key part of the offseason plan that turned the Brewers into what is most likely a solid defensive team.

Many aspects of the 2008 Milwaukee Brewers are different from that of the '07 club, but the one that may end up having the biggest impact on the bottom line is the defensive realignment.  Since we have a day off (it's like a gift of three hours back in my life!) I thought I'd look at the issue from a variety of angles.

First, let's just think about what we've seen.  Four of the eight defensive positions are manned by the same folks who played there last year.  Of those, Hardy is solid, Hart is probably average with a plus arm, while Prince and Rickie are below average.  The only real change from last year is that I think Rickie is a little better--still making spectacular plays, still making mistakes on relatively easy plays, but doing the good things more often and the bad things less often.

The other four spots are big changes:

• Catcher: Kendall appears to be a huge improvement.  Maybe he'll stop being effective gunning down runners, but I can't even imagine anyone arguing that Kendall isn't a net plus in the field over Estrada.
• Third base: Bill Hall looks great.  I don't know whether he'll turn out to be above average, but if he's average, that's a massive gain over last year.
• Left field: I'm not sold on Braun being all that good, or even having the potential to be all that good out there, but at the same time, he's clearly not all that bad.  It isn't like sticking Jack Cust or Manny out there.  Regardless, it's a step down from Jenkins, and probably a big one, but not enough to offset the advantage of getting Braun off of third.
• Center field: I really wanted Hall to succeed in center last year, but it's pretty clear that he didn't.  We've already had three center fielders this year who looked better than Hall did at the position, and Mike Cameron hasn't played an inning yet.  This is a step up, and it's likely to get bigger.

Of course, you knew I wasn't going to stop there.  25 games is not really enough to do any serious statistical analysis of defense, but let's see what the numbers say anyway.

A good starting point for team defense is defensive efficiency, which is the fraction of batted balls that turn into outs.  Last year, the Brewers had a DefEff of .674, 14th out of 16 NL teams.  (Only the Rats and Fish were worse.)  This year we're at .711, 6th in the league.  You can always find DefEff in the "Miscellaneous Stats" section of Baseball-Reference's league pages .

Just doing some back-of-the-envelope calculations, I think that every .001 of DefEff is worth about 3 runs.  (I'm figuring .001 represents about 5 more batted balls turned into outs; if they are all fly balls, it's more like 4 or 5 runs; if they are grounders, it's 2-2.5.)  Viewed in this light, a DefEff increase of .037 would be astonishing: that's an improvement of over 100 runs, or about 10 wins.

That probably won't hold up over the course of the season, but even half that would be impressive.  It could also be partially attributable to the pitching, if they get more ground balls and infield flies.

Another place to look for defense indicators is the new-for-2008 Hardball Times Team Page.  Here are some of the things we can glean from today's report (it's updated daily):

• A fielding plus/minus of -1 suggests that we're about average.  I'll take it.
• We're near the bottom in RZR (the percent of "in zone" balls that are successfully fielded), but second best in the league at getting outs on balls out of zone.  That seems plausible to me: There have been plenty of great plays so far, but still our share of missed opportunities.
• The infield/outfield split is dramatic.  We're near the bottom as an infield, but 5th best as an outfield.  Cameron's return may help that go even higher.
• We're nearly best in the league in errors, and by far the best in the league in unearned runs.  (Since unearned runs are based in large part on errors, it's no surprise that those two go hand in hand.)  If you haven't noticed by now, I don't put a lot of stock in traditional fielding metrics such as errors and fielding percentage, because they are based on the subjective judgments of scorers.

That's probably enough for today.  It'll take many more games before we can make any kind of confident assessment of team defense this year, but even if we go with the more pessimistic view (represented by RZR), that the Brewers are roughly an average defensive team, that's a huge score for the good guys.  It's a testament to Melvin's offseason juggling, as well as the flexibility of Bill Hall and Ryan Braun.

I missed most of last night's game, but when I got home, I liked what I saw.  Another clutch bomb from Prince (against a lefty, no less), some stylish defense from Ryan Braun, and an inning without pain courtesy of Eric Gagne.  The Cubs are in Washington playing the NL East team that actually does suck, so we're still two games back.

The regulars:

• FanGraphs Win Probability chart
• BR Box Score
• BDD Daily Recap
• BP Postseason Odds:  84.7 wins and 22% chance of the division.

Before we get to some articles, I'd like to present to you a photo essay in four clicks that is guaranteed to put a smile on your face:

1. Carlos!
2. Ryan!
3. Prince!
4. Gagne!

The Junkball Blues looks at the efficiency of our starting pitching --that is, how many innings are they getting out of the pitches they throw?  The conclusions aren't surprising, but the degree to which Parra is working for his number of frames might be.

Ben Sheets threw yesterday and said, "It felt good."   I would've given this top billing, but you all know as well as I do how little Sheets updates can mean sometimes.

At The Book Blog, MGL tries to rate pitching coaches.   I had considered doing something very similar to this, so I'm glad he did.  As he acknowledges, it's a very difficult effect to nail down, but as it turns out, Mike Maddux appears to have been a positive influence--though not overwhelmingly so--over the last five years.

Some injuries:

• Scott Baker left his start last night with a groin strain , leaving the Twins wondering if they'll have any starting pitching left by June, and dejectedly realizing that the Rangers have Sidney Ponson this year.
• Kevin Correia got all of one out before leaving with a back injury.   Ouch.
• Kerwin Danley got hit.   Hard.  (Link has video.)

In former Brewers news, it's a big day to be a part of the old Brewers-Braves trade.  Dan Kolb (yes, that Dan Kolb) was released by the Red Sox, and Jose Capellan (yes, that Jose Capellan) was promoted by the Rockies.

Speaking of the Rockies, somebody had to go to make room for Capellan, and that someone was...Jayson Nix .  Doug: Gyt oyn thy phoyne, immydyatly!

The Pirates are bad.  Charlie at Bucs Dugout sums it all up in one brilliant post.

I'm guessing most of you haven't heard of Danny Ray Herrera, but he's a great story.  He was part of the Josh Hamilton trade in the offseason, and he just made a successful debut in Triple-A.   For the whole Herrera tale, from being a too-short-for-the-scouts college pitcher to a surprise success in A ball, click here.  (It's a great article.)

That's it for today...at least for the next two hours, until game time.

Morning. Let's skip talking about last night's game and the standings and get right into the Mug.

Last night's Win Expectancy Graph
Baseball Reference Box Score
Baseball Digest Daily Recaps
ESPN Video Highlights

With the loss, BP's win projection for the Brewers dropped four tenths to 81.7, but their odds of winning the NL Central, interestingly enough, went up four tenths to 17.4%.

Gabe Kapler Gabe Kapler Gabe Kapler. Both ESPN Video and Sports Illustrated are talking about him, ironically enough on the same day he ran into the wall in BP and was scratched from the lineup. The ESPN interview might be the most awkward professional interview I've seen in quite some time.

Gaslamp Ball has opened up a debate, once again, on batting the pitcher 8th. Fungoes takes it in a new direction and asks "Why bat the pitcher at all?"

Ryan Braun was given the day off yesterday to "relax." I don't know about you, but watching my team lose while Joe Dillon hit in my spot in the lineup wouldn't be relaxing for me. Maybe he had a drink with an umbrella in it.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Erik Bedard's hip will land him on the DL. The DL Informer thinks it could be serious.
Indians P Joe Borowski is headed to the DL with chronic ineffectiveness a strained tricep.
Twins SS Adam Everett will have his shoulder examined by team doctors today, and missed last night's game.
Nats C Paul Lo Duca missed last night's game after being hit in the hand with a pitch Sunday.
Kevin Millwood had to leave his most recent start with a bruised shin.
Braves P Peter Moylan is on the DL with an elbow strain severe enough to send him to Dr. James Andrews.
Alfonso Soriano strained his calf hopping to catch a fly ball last night, and is day-to-day.

Who knows if he can consistently catch anymore, but rumor has it the Reds are interested in signing Mike Piazza.

Maybe Dontrelle Willis' hyperextended knee will keep him from driving drunk.

Again, we've gone round and round on Eric Gagne's struggles, but one fact is inarguable: He's pitching much better than Jose Valverde.

The Dodgers are inviting bloggers to meet with club personnel. That's a nice touch. I don't mean to drop hints or anything, but I'd be open to meeting with the Brewers front office staff...y'know, more or less anytime.

And, for the second time this week, if you're looking for work, the Marlins may have your answer. I think it's always dangerous to include phrases like "limited supervision" in the first line of a job description. Maybe that's just me.

If you have something you'd like me to consider for inclusion in a future Mug, be sure to drop it in the comments.

That's all for today. Drink up.

It's the rubber game at Shea, with Jeff Suppan taking on Oliver Perez.  The action starts at 12:10 CT.

As KLSnow mentioned in the Mug this morning, it'll be interesting to see the lineups, as Braun and Fielder requested a switch.  For what it's worth, swapping them (against a lefty, anyway), is a very, very slight negative according to the lineup analysis algorithm, but of course the algorithm doesn't know anything about how comfortable the #3 and #4 hitters are.

And anyway, for as long as Cameron is out, Yost seems likely to hit a lefty second when a right-hander is on the mound, so moving Fielder back to cleanup splits up the two lefties in the lineup.  Seems like an innocuous move all around, especially when Bill Hall is knocking it out of the park every other time he makes contact.

Platoon-ified Project-A-Tron says:

• Brewers 4.5
• Mets 4.4
• Brewers WinExp: 48%

(Yes, I know that makes no sense.  Basically, most of the home-field advantage in baseball comes from the strategic edge of batting last.  If the runs scored are projected to be so close, many possible outcomes will result in a tie game late, including those that go to extra innings.  So basically, the predicted score makes it a 50-50 shot, and the home field advantage gives the edge to the Mets.)

Go Brewers!

UPDATE: Tom H has the lineups, and the request has been granted.