Friday's Frosty Mug
Today's Mug is a little short on time, so my apologies if it seems rushed.
Let's open with a Sabathia Smorgasbord:
- The Dodgers are reportedly getting ready to make an offer.
- The Giants may be getting ready to do so as well.
- The Yankees may be putting a deadline on their offer to Sabathia.
- The White Sox may be considering getting involved.
If the Brewers lose Sheets, they may get better defensively. Baseball Musings' Probabilistic Model of Range ranked Brewer pitchers dead last defensively in 2008, and Ben Sheets was the worst pitcher, scoring 57.52, where 100 is average. Dave Bush was also near the bottom.
As noted in the FanShots, the Brewers added four minor league pitchers to their 40-man roster (Mark Rogers, Omar Aguilar, Cody Scarpetta and Alexandre Periard) to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. Of the four, only Aguilar strikes me as someone another team would consider keeping on their roster all season. Meanwhile, Paul DePodesta explains why adding a player to your 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft makes it easier to lose them later.
Four Brewer prospects (although one is a former Brewer now) made the TOPPS AA All-Stars: Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar, Michael Brantley and Angel Salome.
On the flip side, Corey Hart's 2008 OBP was the fourth worst among full time outfielders.
On the hot stove:
Marlins: The team and Hanley Ramirez reportedly have differing opinions on whether or not he should play winter ball. The team has told him to stay home and rest.
Phillies: Could be looking to make a move on Raul Ibanez.
Royals: Acquired Coco Crisp from the Red Sox for RP Ramon Ramirez.
In other news, the owners have agreed to ensure all playoff games go at least nine innings, but won't make a decision on blackout policy until January.
A scheduling note: I'm leaving in a few hours to go hunting for several days, and while I'll be available to write on occasion in the evenings, my mornings will be tied up. Roguejim has agreed to handle the Mug for a couple of days early next week, and I'll be back on Friday. The Mug may take a couple of days off for the holiday in the middle. While I'm gone, I'm still hoping to finish my AFL recap and I'll likely be lurking from time to time.
Oh, and I'm not worried about increasing competition.
Drink up.
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On the actual value of Mike Cameron
Now, $9.25 million is a lot of money. In $100 bills, it would pretty much fill this suitcase.
If you assume the Brewer payroll will be around $90 million next season, give or take depending on free agent signings, Mike Cameron stands to make about 11.1% of the Brewers' total payroll. That number is less than Jeff Suppan (13.8%), only slightly more than Bill Hall (9.3%) and much, much more than Ryan Braun (0.8%).
In several threads discussing the option, there seems to be a percentage of the population that feels like $9.25 million was too much to spend on Cameron, an above-average defensive CF who hit .243/.331/.477 in 2008, his tenth consecutive and eleventh out of twelve season with an OPS+ over 100. I'll agree that $9.25 million is a lot of money, and perhaps more than I'd like to spend, but if not Cameron, then what? Let's take a look down three other paths the Brewers could have pursued:
Option 1: Replace from within
Cost: Cheap. Any two of these guys would cost less than $1 million for 2009.
Six minor leaguers played in at least ten games in center field for either Nashville (AAA) or Huntsville (AA) in 2008. Thanks to Jeff, we can calculate their major league equivalents for 2008 relatively easily. Here are the six, sorted by their MLE OPS:
Laynce Nix (AAA): .238/.287/.429
Lorenzo Cain (AA): .228/.293/.383
Michael Brantley (AA): .264/.322/.323
Hernan Iribarren (AAA): .233/.274/.283
Tony Gwynn (AAA): .231/.272/.274
Freddy Parejo (AA): .233/.248/.289
Of those, Nix is no longer with the organization, Brantley was the PTBNL in the Sabathia deal, and Iribarren has played just 11 games in center field in his career. Lorenzo Cain has played just six games above AA, and only played half of 2008.
So if you want to go really cheap and create the possibility of half innings that go 7-8-9 with Kendall, Cain/Iribarren/Gwynn, Pitcher, that's one option. On Yovani Gallardo's starts he should hit seventh.
Option 2: Sign another free agent to replace Cameron
Cost: Moderate
Could the Brewers bring in another stop-gap centerfielder for less? Possibly. Let's look at the options:
Gabe Kapler, Brewers: There's no guarantee Kapler will be back, as he's coming off a career year and the Red Sox reportedly have interest in him. He's never had 500 AB's in a season, and hasn't even had 500 plate appearances since 2001. He had a career year and a nice comeback in 2008, but spent 2007 out of baseball, and in the five seasons before that he posted OPS+'s of 75, 85, 77, 65 and 77. He's only 33 and coming off a career year, so my guess is he'll sign for either 2 or 3 years at $3.5-$4 million per. If you sign him for that and he either can't physically handle playing full time or is ineffective, then you're back to the options listed above.
Jim Edmonds, Cubs: Came back to hit .256/.369/.568 for the Cubs in part-time duty after a rough start that led to his release in San Diego. He's 39 years old and hasn't appeared in 120 games since 2005. He's almost certainly not capable of playing everyday, but if you'd like to give him a shot I'd guess about $3 million for one year could do it.
Mark Kotsay, Red Sox: Hit /276/.329/.403 for the Braves and Red Sox in 2008. He's a serviceable big league CF with decent experience and while he hasn't reached a 100 OPS+ in any of the last four seasons, he was only truly terrible in one of them. The downside: he made $8 million in 2008, and since he's really the only other everyday option available in free agency, he'll probably get something like 3 years, $27 million, to make him $25k cheaper than Cameron.
Scott Podsednik, Rockies or So Taguchi, Phillies: Podsednik hasn't been a full-timer since 2006. He had a nice comeback in Colorado this year, but still only hit .253/.322/.333. Taquchi hit .220/.283/.297 for the Phillies this season and, at 38 years old, is likely done. Either might take a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Neither should be depended on to provide anything.
Option 3: Move Ryan Braun/Corey Hart to CF and look for a corner outfielder
Cost: Depends on the corner outfielder
CHONE projects Mike Cameron as about three runs above average defensively in center field in 2009. Braun projects at about 7 runs below average in center, and Hart projects at 9. Braun has never played there before, so I'm not sure how reliable that number is. But, assuming one of the two would be 8 runs below average, the new corner outfielder would need to be an average defender and 11 runs better than Mike Cameron offensively to break even.
There are some Brewers that could be a fit here. Brad Nelson (.246/.321/.393 MLE in Nashville) is as close to big league ready as he'll ever get, in all likelihood. Mat Gamel (.273/.326/.430 MLE in Huntsville) could work, and a free agent to fill a corner spot is easier to find than a center fielder. This is probably the most viable of the three options, but it weakens the Brewers a lot defensively, and could mean Ryan Braun's second position change in as many years.
So what do you think? What should the Brewers have done?
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BCB Interview: Don Money (Part One)
BCB: When did you decide that coaching was something you were interested in?
Don Money: After I finished my career in '83 I went to Japan for a few months, and then in '84 I completely got out, and starting in '87 I coached a high school team for five years and also a semi-pro team. This was a full time job then because the high school was during the week, and the semi-pro team was during the weekends. Once my kids got out of high school my wife said that I should get a job back, so I got a job for three years working in a shipping and receiving department part-time, and then I saw that Cecil Cooper got the minor league director's job in 1997, so I gave him a call during spring training to see if there were any openings for next year. Coop said that there would be, but he wasn't sure where and he would call back during the summer. So he ended up getting offered the job in Helena [Rookie ball], so then two weeks later Cooper called back and said he changed his mind and offered me the position in Beloit. So I was in Beloit for seven years. I had an opportunity to go to California a couple of times, as the Brewers had a team in High Desert, but it was a move from A to A, and my family was on the East Coast, so I decided to stay in Beloit. Then four years ago when Cecil got a job in Houston, Frank Kremblas, who was the manger at Huntsville, moved up to AAA, and I moved up here.
BCB: Can you compare this team you currently have to the Beloit team you had in 2003 with [Prince] Fielder, [Rickie] Weeks, [Tony] Gwynn, [Manny] Parra, [Dennis] Sarfate, [Callix] Crabbe, and so on?
DM: The year before Prince had come up from Rookie ball, then Gwynn and Weeks came in the draft, so that team wasn't together for the full season. That team too had more prospects on the pitching side, and this team is more on the positional players. You go back to the scouting department and Jack Zduriencik because when I first came here in '98 and '99 and 2000 the talent was kind of thin. You have to give credit to the scouting department. [Zduriencik] goes out there and busts stones, as we say, and you have to find these players. You don't just take the word of a guy who is saying this is a ace pitcher who will be in the big leagues in a few years. You have to follow up on these players. If you go and then the game was canceled by rain you have to stick with them. So he has done a really good job of bringing in the talent, and it isn't just the number-one picks and the number-two picks, it is the fifth-round picks and the tenth-round picks, all the way down. You always expect the fourth or fifth pick to be guys who are ready to go, but if you find guys who are in the 11th round and the 12th round who are better than the guys who other teams are picking there, that is really important. And that team in Beloit was loaded, with Prince and Rickie and Manny. Manny was dealing that year. Now, it looks like he has finally made the turn and, knock on wood, he has pretty much solidified his spot in the rotation and maybe is over the injury bug that seemed to get him every year for three or four years. Sarfate was there and he always had a big-league arm; he just had to throw it over the plate. He was always a starter and now he is a reliever.
BCB: That seemed to be the role that the Brewers were projecting him into down the road.
DM: It is hard to set up a short man or a reliever in the minor leagues. If you look at stats here and you look at a guy like Pena and he is earmarked to be a setup or closer, but I don't know how many innings he has got. A guy like Sarfate, because of pitch counts, after five innings he was done. He would have thrown 100 pitches because he had a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks and that eats the pitches. All guys are on pitch counts, even the guys in the big leagues, and what happened was he could never turn the corner to be a consistent pitcher, and now he has been traded and maybe a change of scenery has helped him. The thing about him is he has never been injured and that was the thing with Manny.
This team here I am surprised on the hitting side, and you got guys like [Alcides] Escobar who are [ranked] like one or two in the organization, and guys like [Mat] Gamel who are two or three in the organization, and [Cole] Gillespie, who is seven or eight, and you got [Michael] Brantley in center, and it looks like he has finally turned the corner in center, and right now he is on suspension, and that is neither here or there. You had guys one through eight in the lineup who were hitting. We aren't quite that team right now. We have [Lorenzo] Cain, who is a young kid, in center field taking Brantley's spot, actually taking [Matt] LaPorta's spot, technically. He has been here a few games, and it is early to say, but he is playing well. He is doing a good job in center and has shown a good arm and just needs to get his feet wet. [Chris] Errecart was having a solid year until he sprained his wrist and had to go to Arizona. [Angel] Salome is having a great year, he just needs to work a bit better on calling games. It is a solid team. Gamel is having a great year--now will he go to the majors and hit .370? I think no, but will he go there and hit .300? I think with his approach he will. He should be a .300 hitter, and you look at the charts and that should be a 60 or 70 [on the 20-80 scouting scale], and the big knock on him is his defense, but it getting better.
BCB: I had heard an interview you had done with Jim Powell, and you mentioned that Gamel's footwork was his biggest problem. When [Ryan] Braun was here 90% of his errors were throwing errors, but Gamel has made about as many fielding errors as throwing errors, so is it footwork getting to the ball and getting to the good hop and then getting ready to throw?
DM: Footwork. Footwork is involved with both sides of it. You have to be light on your feet, and he isn't really light on his feet right now. He is more of a plant guy than nimble, but it is better than it was, as I have been told, because I had never seen him before this year. He had about 55 errors last year and they were about 50/50 throwing and fielding, but this year he had mostly fielding errors until about a week ago. He had only one or two throwing errors, but it all reverts right to his footwork. If his footwork gets out of sync, then this [points to his arm] gets out of sync. You can ask him, and he feels much better about it, but it is still a work in progress. Can he make the turn and become a consistent Major Leaguer? I think he can. Derek Jeter made 30 to 40 errors in the minors, but once he got confidence he made the turn, and now look at him.
BCB: Footwork was considered Rickie Weeks' big problem at second as well--do you see some parallels with him?
DM: Rickie, when you look at him, I only had him for a month, and he was raw. He was oriented around hitting, but he had a great arm, and at times it looked like he relied on the strength of his arm instead of getting his footwork under him. And if you need it the arm should be there, but you shouldn't rely on it. Take Escobar for example: very good arm but he doesn't have to throw it at 110% until he needs to, but Rickie was doing that all the time, and that is why he was throwing it off-line and in the dirt, and that is where a lot of his errors were coming. And now he is doing a lot better but now has to pick up his offense a little bit.
BCB: I'd like to believe that offense won't be a problem with Rickie long-term--he is still walking and showing some power.
DM: You hope it comes around at some point, because he has been there now for a few years and I think he is still working at it. Then he hurt his wrist sitting in the dugout twirling his bat, and that has been a real nagging thing for him. He stands there holding his bat like this [imitates Rickie's bat wiggle], and that is how he hurt it in the first place, and it is just one of those instances where he has to start getting a little better, and I think he is, but the season is a long season.
BCB: The other thing about Gamel that people haven't really touched on is how good he hits against left-handed pitching. Many young left-handed batter struggle against left-handed pitching but Gamel seems to do just fine. What about his approach let's him do that?
DM: He doesn't try to pull. That is the biggest thing. He approach is [to] left-center and right-center, and right now he very rarely pulls the ball and hits to right field with some pop. Once he learns to recognize the pitch and he can turn on the ball, he has a chance to increase his power numbers and still hit [for average] well.
Part Two coming soon.
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BCB Interview: RHP Donovan Hand

Donovan Hand was a 14th-round pick out of Jacksonville State last year, and he's been a very pleasant surprise, making it all the way to AA in just his first full season. He went on the DL with an undisclosed injury the day after I talked to him, which may partially explain some of his struggles at AA.
BCB: Can you describe what you throw?
DH: I throw a four-seam fastball, a sinker most of the time, and a slider and changeup. I’m a sinkerball pitcher, or at least that’s what I’m described as.
BCB: So you have a four-seamer and a two-seamer?
DH: Yep.
BCB: What percentage of your fastballs are two-seamers?
DH: 90 percent. I use the four-seamer if I go up in the zone or out and to really spot some pitches off the plate.
BCB: How hard do you throw?
DH: 87, 88, may touch 91.
BCB: That's with the four-seam or the sinker?
DH: Both.
BCB: What pitch do you use as your strikeout pitch?
DH: Slider and fastball.
BCB: Do you try to strike a lot of guys out? Or would you rather pitch to contact?
DH: Contact, [but] if I get in a situation, I will try for sure to strike someone out.
BCB: Is your change a circle change or a straight change?
DH: Circle.
BCB: Did you throw one coming out of college, or did the Brewers add it? They seem to want almost every pitcher to have a change.
DH: Had one come out of college. The Brewers have modified it some, but had it coming out of college.
BCB: How did they modify it?
DH: Changed the grip some in instructs this year--nothing major, just wanted it to look a little more like my sinker.
BCB: So far your year is kind of the tale of two seasons; you were dominant at Brevard but have struggled at Huntsville. What do you attribute the struggles to?
DH: Yeah it sure has been. You know, the jump between High-A and AA is definitely been the biggest jump for me so far. The hitters here are older and experienced, and I’ve been a little off the last month or so here, but I’m trying to learn how to really pitch and use what I have to do that, and it don’t happen overnight, so it’s a process, and the complete game was a glimpse of [success], and then the last two haven’t been so good.
BCB: How have you been off?
DH: I’ve been missing spots, and my command hasn’t been as good as earlier in the season.
BCB: So is there anything in particular you're working on?
DH: Just sound mechanics and hitting spots and getting back to the basics.
BCB: So you're having a little trouble repeating your mechanics?
DH: Yeah.
BCB: Which part of them are you struggling with?
DH: Pass. (laughs) It would be hard to explain, but nothing particular, just some little things that are making small differences in location.
BCB: Are you surprised at all how fast the Brewers have promoted you?
DH: Yeah a little, you know, but happy about it.
BCB: You don't feel pressured at all by it?
DH: No. I’m trying to think how to explain it. I was surprised a little. I wasn’t expecting the call to AA--really thought I had a shot but wasn’t for sure. I was really happy to be in Brevard, in the rotation, because I want to be a starter, and when the call came to AA, it was awesome. I just want to take the opportunities I’m given and use them to my advantage, learn and mature in each place to make it to the bigs.
BCB: I read that you were considering going back to Jacksonville State after being drafted. How tough was that decision?
DH: You know, it was kinda difficult, but this has been my dream since I’ve been six years old, so of course I wanted to go. but at the same time I wasn’t going for nothing, since I had a year left in school, but it was tough to leave my coaches and friends I had made there. I got a good situation, I felt like, and made my decision.
BCB: Are you going to go back and get your degree?
DH: Yeah, I’d like to when I get time. I definitely want to finish. A little personal goal.
BCB: What was your major?
DH: Business management and marketing.
BCB: What do you want to do after baseball?
DH: You know, I wouldn’t mind coaching at some level, but we’ll see what happens. I have coached a few summer league teams back home and enjoyed that.
BCB: Too bad you weren't on the 1982 Brewers--you could coach for life in this organization!
DH: Yeah for sure, huh? (laughs)
BCB: Do you follow the big league team at all?
DH: Yeah, I have a lot since I’ve been drafted.
BCB: Who were you a fan of growing up?
DH: Yankees. I know, be easy on me now. (laughs)
BCB: Oh man. How close to Tampa [the spring training home of the Yankees] did you grow up?
DH: Not close at all.
BCB: Dude!
DH: I’m from Alabama.
BCB: Is [Alabama native] Jake Peavy your hero?
DH: Naw, I did play against his brother in college. They were in our conference. Don Mattingly was the hero growing up, other than my parents, of course.
BCB: Is there a pitcher you pattern yourself after?
DH: Not really.
BCB: Okay, so how did the LaPorta trade affect the team?
DH: You know, it for sure took a big bat out of our line up and LaPorta is a great guy, and I wish him the best, but he wasn’t a very vocal guy, so in that respect not a lot. But his presence is for sure missed.
BCB: It didn't really upset the team chemistry at all?
DH: Not a lot, no, I don’t think so.
BCB: Who are the leaders in your clubhouse?
DH: Jason Shiell and David Welch from a pitching standpoint, and from the position side [Michael] Brantley, probably. There have been so many moves, it’s kinda hard to say one guy for sure. Probably J.R. Hopf now that he’s here.
BCB: Brantley, even though he's the youngest player on the team? What does he do that makes him such a good leader?
DH: He just goes about his business day-in and day-out, and a lot of people respect that.
BCB: Is he a vocal leader?
DH: He is a great teammate, I can say that much.
BCB: So if you were the Indians, which player would you take?
DH: Pass. Naw, I’m not for sure; I’ve played with both [Brantley and Taylor Green], and they are a lot alike personality-wise, and they are both great players. So it is definitely a great position [for the Indians to be in].
BCB: Who's the best player in the organization that you've played with?
DH: Brantley or [Mat] Gamel, they both are great players.
BCB: They both have some questions about them defensively.
DH: Really?
BCB: Well, a lot of people have wondered why Brantley keeps seeing so much time at first base instead of center field. How does he look to you out in center?
DH: Great, he gets good jumps and has a very accurate arm.
BCB: How's his range?
DH: Great, in my opinion.
BCB: How does he compare to Lorenzo Cain defensively?
DH: They both are good. Right now Brantley is on the DL, so it makes sense to put Cain out there, with his speed, until Brantley returns. We’ll see then.
BCB: Okay, so how about Gamel defensively?
DH: Great arm but does make some mistakes, but he works his butt off at it and is getting better every day. The main thing is he wants to get better, and he is. And who better to teach him the Don Money?
BCB: How about Alcides Escobar's defense? Best shortstop you've ever seen?
DH: Hands down, for sure, and can hit also.
BCB: Keith Law recently said that Escobar has no pitch recognition and will swing at anything. Do you think that's right?
DH: I don’t think that’s true. He is aggressive but seems to always have good at-bats.
BCB: Okay, one last question. Are you worried at all that anyone is going to see "Escobar injures hand" and think that Alcides took you out?
DH: What now?
BCB: Because your name is Hand…
DH: (laughs) That could be funny! (laughs)
BCB: Well, thanks a bunch. We'll be cheering for you.
DH: All right, thanks a lot.
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BCB Interview: 3B Taylor Green

Taylor Green, an unheralded 25th-round draft-and-follow in 2005, exploded onto the Brewers' prospect scene last year, hitting .327/.406/.516 for West Virginia after barely making the team out of spring training. He hasn't stopped hitting since, currently sporting a .285/.369/.420 line in the very hitter-unfriendly Florida State League. Most famously, of course, he's rumored to be one of the players Cleveland has to choose from to complete the CC Sabathia deal, but unfortunately he knows about as much about that as we do.
BCB: Have you heard anything new about the trade?
TG: No, I haven't. I haven't really heard anything at all about the trade. All I heard was that my name came up in it, and that's about it.
BCB: I've heard that the players the Indians have to choose from will change depending on how well Sabathia does for the Brewers and how well the Brewers do the rest of the season. Do you know anything about that?
TG: No man, sorry. I don't know anything about the trade at all. I wish I did. (laughs)
BCB: How do you feel about your season so far?
TG: Our season is going all right so far, a lot of ups and downs, but we’re working hard to keep getting better.
BCB: What about you personally?
TG: My season has been going all right. You learn a lot about mental preparation in this league with all the rain delays, more than the wind, heat, or anything else. Trying to keep mentally focused during the delays is the toughest part.
BCB: Dealing with Space Coast Stadium regularly has to imbue you with some mental toughness, too. How frustrating is it hitting there?
TG: (laughs) Yeah. The stadium is a lot tougher for right-handed batters than left. I've seen tons of balls crushed to left field that just die at the warning track. I’m left-handed, and the ball goes pretty decently to right field; it’s just those hits to left-center in the gap that get ran down a lot more often.
BCB: Tell me a little about Jonathan Lucroy. He's right-handed and seems to be handing the FSL just fine. Is he the real deal?
TG: Yeah, he's unbelievable. He absolutely crushes balls. He's one of the best hitters I've ever played with.
BCB: All four of his homers have been hit at Space Coast, actually. Is he going oppo or is he just that strong?
TG: He has cut balls through the wind to left field and has gone oppo. It’s been really impressive to watch.
BCB: I interviewed Stephen Chapman earlier this year, and he said that in his opinion, you were the surest bet of anyone on the team to play in the big leagues. How do you feel about that, and who's your pick?
TG: I feel pretty honored for him to say that. We’ve lived together for two years now, so maybe he’s biased. (laughs) I think we have a bunch of guys on this team that will play in the big leagues, so it’s too hard to pick just one.
BCB: That's very diplomatic of you. How about you throw out somebody that maybe isn't getting talked about as much as a guy like you or Lucroy, someone whose stats don't really pop out at you but that you really feel has a chance to play at the highest level?
TG: I think Alex Periard is a guy who will have success at the highest level. He has a sharp, downward fastball that he throws about 91 to 94. He can hit the corners with it consistently and can throw his offspeed stuff for strikes.
BCB: Do you enjoy playing behind guys like Periard that generate a lot of groundballs and keep you on your toes?
TG: It’s awesome. Chris Cody and Bobby Bramhall are also awesome at doing that.
BCB: It seems like Jeremy Jeffress is getting more grounders this year too. Is he doing anything differently from when you played with him at West Virginia last year?
TG: He is unbelievable. It’s amazing to watch him pitch. He’s keeping the ball down in the zone, so that is probably why he is getting more groundouts.
BCB: Speaking of playing the infield, and this of course ties in to the trade rumors, but do you prefer playing second or third? Which are you better at?
TG: I enjoy both of them. At third, I like how you are so close to the action, and at second, I really like turning the double play.
BCB: But you don't feel like you're significantly better at one or the other?
TG: No, they have me playing third right now, so I’m just working as hard as I can at that position. I’ll play any position I need to in order to make it, though. (laughs)
BCB: Had you played any third base before they moved you there at the beginning of last year? I get the sense that you ended up playing it because they didn't really have anyone else to.
TG: No, Garth Iorg came up to me with a couple of days left before spring training and asked me if I would play third. Of course I said yes, trying to make the West Virginia team.
BCB: You were kind of an overlooked guy in the organization prior to 2007, but then you had a great year and won the organizational Player of the Year award. Do you think you took the team by surprise?
TG: I’m not really sure; I try not to think about that stuff too often. I just try and go out there and do the best I can, and then hopefully everything works out.
BCB: Do you enjoy being in an organization with so many other Canadians? Did that help you get comfortable after being drafted?
TG: (laughs) I’m not sure—I’ve never really thought about that. I lived in California for two years before I signed, so I was pretty used to everything by then. It is nice to be able to talk to people from home about the hockey playoffs and everything, though. (laughs)
BCB: Do you know any of the recent Brewers' Canadian draftees? Brett Lawrie and [16th-round selection] Stosh Wawrzasek in particular are both from BC too.
TG: I know them a little bit, not very well though. Growing up I played with Brett's sister, Danielle, who is going to the Olympics as well, for softball.
BCB: Oh yeah? Did she strike you out?
TG: (laughs) We never played against each other. We still argue and wonder to this day about that though. Also, I know [2007 13th-round Ontario native] Chris Dennis through instructional ball and spring training, and we have the same agent.
BCB: Speaking of your agent, how do you feel about him having a blog? Some people were rather critical of him in the wake of the Sabathia deal for saying that Michael Brantley for sure wasn't on the table, and then quickly retracting it.
TG: I don't mind at all. That stuff is up to him. He’s done an outstanding job with me and that’s all I really know about.
BCB: How do you feel about sports blogs in general, particular when it comes to discussing yourself? Have you ever googled yourself to see what people are saying?
TG: I think sports blogs are great because it generates excitement. I’ve never googled myself, though, to see what people are saying. (laughs)
BCB: Well that's pretty much all we've got for you, man. We really appreciate you taking the time. Keep tearing it up, even if you end up as an Indian!
TG: (laughs) Right on, man. Thanks.
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Trade Ripples Muddy Tortured Prospect Metaphor
We can start by checking out my prospect list from a couple weeks ago (you can read the current, post-trade list in the left sidebar). Many people rated Matt LaPorta as the Brewers' top overall prospect, but I had him at #2, behind Mat Gamel; however, the difference isn't really worth getting excited about, as they were really more like 1-a and 1-b. In any case, LaPorta's departure leaves Gamel and his ridiculous .381/.443/.637 line alone atop the heap, and also helps clear a path for him and his 22 errors to move to the outfield. I imagine the Brewers will leave Gamel at third for the remainder of the year, allowing him to finish his work with hot corner defensive whiz Don Money, only then moving him to the outfield if his reviews continue to come up smelling more like Rafflesia than Rosa.
After Gamel, the next prospect affected is Taylor Green. Green may actually be in the trade, but either way, he's about to get a bump in his Q rating. A solid all-around ballplayer, I had Green as the team's 7th-best prospect pre-trade, and he moves up to 6th currently after LaPorta is removed. If he's still a Brewer at the end of the season and the Brewers' third base monster eats Gamel, he'll enter 2009 as the team's only real internal solution at third base, making him a very important prospect indeed.
Next up are Green's partner in the Dance of the Enlimboed Prospect, Michael Brantley, and Brantley's new teammate at Huntsville, Lorenzo Cain. Is the PTBNL designation a result of the Indians' lust for Brantley and their concern over his current ankle injury? Can Brantley handle center field at the big league level? Now that they're on the same team, will the Brewers play Brantley in center ahead of Cain, despite Cain being a better center fielder, because Cain's bat is more likely to pack corner outfield thunder? Can either of them play center better than Corey Hart can? All good questions, and unfortunately, all questions for which I don't have an answer. In any case, if Brantley remains a Brewer, Milwaukee is going to have a couple pretty good spare outfielders pretty soon, and those might come in handy...
...because there's no pitching. Rob Bryson is a long way from the Majors, but in him the Brewers lost a pitcher with perhaps the second-highest upside in the system, behind only Jeremy Jeffress. Here's where it gets tricky: if Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia walk after the season, the Brewers will have cemented in their 2009 starting five only Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, and Jeff Suppan. Dave Bush, Seth McClung, Carlos Villanueva, and Steve Hammond (along with 2009's neo-Narvesons) will compete to fill the final two spots in a rotation that does not look particularly sexy, or effective. There's a chance Jeffress will be ready at some point next year, but that's not something to count on. As such, it would be nice if the Brewers could package some of their redundant outfield talent, and/or perhaps one of Jonathan Lucroy and Angel Salome, to acquire some slightly warty pitching help. One possibility, completely off the top of my head, is Gio Gonzalez, a lefty with good stuff but inconsistent results.
Lastly, there should be some outfield promotions in order. Cain and Logan Schafer already got bumped up, but the Brewers aren't really going to leave Scott Houin as one of Brevard's starting outfielders, are they? Has 19-year-old Caleb Gindl impressed the team enough in his full-season debut to warrant moving him up to A+? We'll see, but one thing is for sure: the aftershocks from this blockbuster haven't stopped rumbling.
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Friday's Crystal Callix
The biggest news this morning, courtesy of Ken Rosenthal, is that Matt LaPorta is officially on the trading block, and that Alcides Escobar might be packaged with him to acquire C.C. Sabathia. That price sounds a little steep to me, but Tom Haudricourt reports that the Indians have also been scouting Taylor Green. LaPorta and Green sounds about right, which would free the Brewers to trade Escobar or J.J. Hardy (who is confirmed to be available, along with Rickie Weeks) for A.J. Burnett, because the Blue Jays need a shortstop. Haudricourt doubts the Brewers are really offering LaPorta and/or Escobar, but given recent history, I think I'd believe Robothal first.
The Yost Infection takes umbrage with BA & Rock's fellating of Hardy's defense, citing his terrible zone rating, but fails to note the fact that Hardy leads all of baseball in out-of-zone plays; in other words, the Brewers' defensive shifting is messing up his zone rating. He's still not as good as Escobar, though.
LaPorta, Escobar, and Mat Gamel all made what I guess is best called Baseball America's Midseason Prospect All-Star Team, which roughly means they're near the top of their positions in all of prospectdom, but the corrosponding chat casts doubt on whether Gamel and Angel Salome can stick at their current defensive positions.
At FanGraphs, Marc Hulet (who I'm beginning to suspect is a big Brewers fan) points out that there are other interesting prospects in the system beyond the big names, namely Michael Brantley and Cole Gillespie. The point is especially well-taken about Gillespie, who's hitting like a mini-LaPorta, putting up a .273/.374/.498 line. Hulet also put Brad Nelson on his AAA non-prospect All-Star team; I think Nelson would make an excellent throw-in in whatever trade the Brewers end up executing, as he's never going to get a shot in Milwaukee.
Speaking of trades, Scott Linebrink Cutter Dykstra hit his first professional home run for Helena.
Dykstra's fellow draftee, 41st-round Cal State Fullerton SS Joe Scott, is playing summer ball in Alaska and "there's a chance he might sign a professional contract if he plays well this summer." He previously spurned the Brewers last year when they drafted him in the 39th round.
Tired of reading about prospects? Michael Garciaparra probably is too, though he doesn't regret choosing minor league baseball over a two-sport college career at the University of Tennessee.
Back in the big leagues, Tim Lincecum dropped the hammer on the Cubs while Mike Pelfrey dominated the Cardinals, keeping the Brewers from losing any ground after the game I don't remember. David Pinto notes that Lincecum exhibited unusually good control.
Speaking of which, having nightmares about the bullpen after yesterday? This should help.
At Recondite Baseball, TheJay takes a look at players who achieved the Alex Sanchez Special, having a lower on-base percentage than batting average. He ran down the Brewers' leaders in an earlier post.
Before today, all I know about Max Scherzer was that he threw really hard and had heterochromia. Now, thanks to Eric Seidman's interview, I know that Scherzer's a pretty sharp guy with an interest in cutting edge baseball research. I'm amazed that he's able to get anyone out pitching from his mother's basement.
That'll do it. What's that? You wanted another song? If you don't got Mojo Nixon then your store could use some fixin'!
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Breaking Down the Prospect List
Recently, after being deluged with requests (okay, there were two), I added a prospect ranking to the left-hand sidebar. The off-day today seemed like a good time to expand a bit on my reasons and thinking. Besides, nothing generates good debate like somewhat arbitrary, mostly uninformed hierarchies!
01. Mat Gamel 3B (22) [AA] - .373/.434/.630/1.065, 21 errors
Breakout player of the year has gone from Ryan Braun Lite to Ryan Braun, which unfortunately includes the errors as well. Gamel has better range than Braun did, and with the system choked with outfielders, he'll get the next year and a half to prove he can't play third.
02. Matt LaPorta OF (23) [AA] - .292/.404/.596/1.000
LaPorta looks for all the world like a right-handed Pat Burrell, again including the iffy corner outfield defense. He's not the pure hitter that Gamel is, and he doesn't have the defensive upside, but he has the best plate approach in the system.
03. Alcides Escobar SS (21) [AA] - .326/.359/.435/.794, 21/26 SB
Escobar differs from the other position players near the top of this list in that he is an elite glove man rather than a defensive liability; though he's committed 15 errors already, that total is inflated by his excellent range. His plate discipline hasn't improved (his walk and strikeout rates are almost identical to those from his stint in Huntsville last year), but he's flashing significantly more power than ever before, which is a great sign.
04. Jeremy Jeffress RSP (20) [A+] - 41.7 IP, 36 H, 22 R, 22 ER, 5 HR, 15 BB, 56 K, 1.68 GO/AO, .234 BAA
The only pitcher in the system even remotely close to being a future ace at the Major League level, Jeffress throws high-90s heat, touching 100, and his slider and changeup are also potential plus pitches. He’s had a couple disastrous starts, but even in those he dominated for multiple innings before collapsing, something that could be due to lapses in focus. He’s also seen an intriguing rise in his groundball ratio this year.
05. Angel Salome C (22) [AA] - .346/.404/.534/.938, 24% CS (18/74), 8 PB
Salome might be the best prospect in the system due to position scarcity if he could actually catch, but he can’t really, despite possessing a good body for the position, which is another way of saying he’s too short (5’7") to play anywhere else on the field. He does have a missile for an arm, but it’s lacking a guidance system so far. On the offensive side of things, there’s little question that he can hit, and he’s seen a nice recovery in his walk rate from last year, especially as the season has gone on (12/15 BB/K in 82 June AB’s as his average has come down from stratospheric to merely good).
06. Jonathan Lucroy C (22) [A+] - .311/.384/.527/.911 38% CS (22/58), 4 PB
Only five days younger than Salome, Lucroy (pronounced like LaCroix) is hot on Angel’s heels as a prospect. A recent promotion to Brevard County hasn’t slowed him down at all, and a 31/40 BB/K ratio tells the story of his advanced plate approach. He has a rep as an offense-first catcher, but his stats look pretty good and the pitchers don’t seem to be saying anything bad about him. Lucroy’s also has stolen 8 bases while only being caught once.
07. Taylor Green 3B (21) [A+] - .302/.384/.459/.843, 11 E
Last year’s most pleasant surprise has carried his success over to the tough hitting milieu of the Florida State League. Gritty off the charts, nobody particularly likes Green’s tools, but he seems to be getting the job done just fine so far; next year will be a pivotal one for Green’s prospect status, as the jump to AA is the biggest one in the minors. Green’s a natural second baseman but plays an acceptable third base, a position he will likely continue to occupy until Mat Gamel claims it. He’s the system’s best Canadian prospect.
08. Michael Brantley CF (21) [AA] - .320/.403/.409/.812, 23/29 SB
Brantley came into the year as a big-time sleeper after consistently posting .300/.400 AVG/OBP stats throughout his minor league career but utterly lacking power, and he’s awakened with a roar, morphing into what could be a great leadoff hitter with stats similar to Luis Castillo’s, only from the center field position. He’s not a particularly good defensive center fielder yet, but he’s a great athlete and should improve.
09. Zach Braddock LSP (20) [A+] - 43.7 IP, 34 H, 24 R, 21 ER, 2 HR, 27 BB, 51 K, 0.67 GO/AO, .215 BAA
Braddock was the pitching version of Taylor Green last year, blowing both hitters and stats nerds away with his huge strikeout totals before being shut down with shoulder problems. Fully recovered after a delayed start to the year, Braddock has had his ups and downs at Brevard County, but has retained his dominance, as you can see from his strikeout rate and batting average against. Walks, which weren’t a problem for him at all last year, have really plagued him so far. He doesn’t have Jeffress’ pure stuff, relying on a fastball that’s about 90 MPH, but lefties who can strike people out like this get a lot of chances. Again like Green, the jump to AA next year will be quite telling for Braddock.
10. Cole Gillespie LF (24) [AA] - .277/.378/.494/.872, 7/7 SB
LaPorta Lite, Gillespie is even older and his production has resembles his teammate’s in shape but with less amplitude. He’s a polished, professional hitter who will at the very least be a fourth outfielder, but he’s probably limited to left field defensively because shoulder surgery has ruined his throwing arm.
15 comments | 2 recs
BCB Interviews Stephen Chapman

Stephen Chapman, in addition to being a really cool guy, is perhaps the best left-handed power bat in the system after a certain vegetarian. He's struggling a bit this year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League for Brevard County, but anyone who can post a .277 ISO at Space Coast Stadium, the damp, windswept home park of the Manatees, is doing something right.
BCB: First of all, how do you feel about your season so far?
SC: Not too good. I’m not hitting nearly as well as I’m capable of. I do have some home runs and some triples, but my average is well below where it needs to be. Playing first base is also different, so I’m still getting used to that also. The second half just started, so I need to pick it up for sure.
BCB: Space Coast Stadium is a notoriously bad hitter's park, but you're actually hitting a lot better there. Any particular reason, or just random?
SC: Just random, probably. Our field is rough to hit at for sure. The infield grass is pretty tall, and the wind blows in every day, so you really have to square it up, too. I feel bad for right-handed hitters because the wind blows in from right field also, so they really have it rough.
BCB: Would you say it's the toughest park to hit at in the league?
SC: In all honesty, yes, without a doubt. Every field that I’ve been to so far isn’t nearly as bad as Space Coast. The Tigers’ stadium in Lakeland is a big field, 420 in center and 340 down the lines, but the wind blows out slightly, and it has a nice playing surface so a hit is a hit--the wind wont knock it down and the infield grass won’t eat it up. But without a doubt, our field is the hardest to hit in.
BCB: You've improved your plate discipline this year, walking more often overall and improving your strikeout-to-walk ratio; is that something you’re consciously working on?
SC: Yeah, it’s something I try to work on. I’m still striking out this year, which needs to improve a lot, but the good side is that I’ve been walking more. There are only so many things you can do to improve your walk-to-strikeout ratio, but I’m trying. I just can’t miss my pitch and chase stuff in the dirt; if I do that, I’ll be all right.
BCB: When you were drafted, you had the rep of a guy who could handle any fastball but was still learning to recognize off-speed stuff; is the off-speed stuff what you're struggling with this year, or are you just slumping in general?
SC: I’m just slumping in general. I’m getting myself out a lot. The pitchers aren’t getting me out; I’m getting myself out. Not to say the pitchers here are not good, ‘cause they are, I’m not taking anything away from them, but my swing has just not been right this year. I played in the Hawaii Winter League with High-A and AA pitching, and I hit .294, so I can hit this level pitching; I just need to find my groove. I’ve just been a little off all year, just a little out in front, or a little behind, or I pulled my shoulder out just a little, or this or that. I need to have a little more luck, also. I was talking to Taylor Green about luck the other day, and I honestly have had one cheap base hit all season. Hopefully, [in] the second half I find my groove and things start falling my way a little more.
BCB: Do you see yourself as a .300 hitter? Is that the benchmark you set for yourself, the goal?
SC: I would love to be a .300 hitter, but honestly, no, I’m not. Now, I can hit .300 for sure, but I’m more of a .270 to .290, doubles/triples hitter. My goal this year was to hit .275, and I know that doesn’t seem like a lot, but with our stadium and this league, it’s not too bad. I set realistic goals for myself every year so that I push myself but have an actual shot of reaching them. It serves you no purpose to say you want to hit .375, ‘cause chances are you won’t.
BCB: Just to throw another lefty power hitter out there, would you be happy with Adam Dunn's numbers? That is to say, low average but high production otherwise?
SC: Heck yeah! I don’t know a lot about Dunn, but his name has been in the news a lot lately, so I’ve heard a few numbers thrown around. What is he, a lifetime .240 hitter with 35 homeruns a year? Something like that. He’s been in the league nearly 10 years or something. If those numbers get me 10 years in the League, I would be happiest .240 hitter in the world. (laughs)
BCB: Hello pension!
SC: Exactly, and he’s not making minimum salary either. My friend is David Ross, the catcher for the Reds, and he told me Adam is a great guy, so I won’t know what all this stuff in the news is about.
BCB: That’s cool that you know David Ross. You mean the stuff about the Blue Jays' GM talking shit about Dunn?
SC: Yeah, about Dunn not loving the game and this and that--it’s a bunch of BS. But yeah, David Ross and I live in Tallahassee and train together in the off season. He’s a great guy as well.
BCB: Did you meet him through training or did you know him before?
SC: I met him through training. We’ve been training together for about three years now. We both train at Titus sports Academy in Tallahassee, Florida.
BCB: Do you know any of the Brewers' big leaguers?
SC: Yeah, a lot of them. I mean, I don’t call them or anything, but I do know them. I got in some big league games this spring training and got to hang out with them a few times. I played with [Ryan] Braun in Helena, so that was pretty cool. Prince Fielder, Billy Hall, Mike Cameron--all those guys are hilarious in the clubhouse.
BCB: Being from near Tallahassee, I'm going to guess you grew up a Braves fan.
SC: I was actually born in Washington, D.C. and my family is all in Virginia and Maryland, so I’m an Orioles fan.
BCB: Oh cool, the Brewers are playing the Orioles right now. Have you been watching the series?
SC: (laughs) Nope, the life of a minor leaguer--we don’t have cable at the house. Gas is expensive, man.
BCB: If our blog ever makes money, we'll run a contest every month where we raffle off something and use the money to buy one minor leaguer cable. Or we could run an Adopt-a-Manatee program.
SC: (laughs) I’m sure that would be greatly appreciated. Adopt-a-Manatee would work, also (laughs).
BCB: So, you mentioned Taylor Green earlier. He came out of nowhere last year; what’s the secret to his success?
SC: He’s just a good player. He had a bad first year in Helena, so nobody really though much of him, and everyone thinks that he was a surprise, but he’s always been a great player. It just happens that his first year wasn’t that good.
BCB: Jonathan Lucroy just got called up to Brevard. He looks like a really good ballplayer too.
SC: Yeah, he’s good also. I don’t know much about catching, but I think he’s good behind the plate. He calls a good game back there. You don’t see a lot of three hole-hitting catchers, either. He can really hit.
BCB: Who would you say is the most likely guy on the team to make the majors?
SC: Tough question. Most likely would be Taylor Green. The guys who I think will make it for sure are Taylor Green, Lorenzo Cain, Darren Ford, and Jeremy Jeffress.
BCB: And Lucroy?
SC: Yeah, sorry, Lucroy also, forgot him. Chances are that all the guys won’t play for the Brewers at the same time, but I think someone with want them in the big leagues.
BCB: I was going to ask you about Darren Ford. He seems like he has a lot going for him: some pop, some patience, fastest guy in the system, but he's struggled at Brevard two years in a row. You think he's got Major League skills though?
SC: Yeah, for sure. He can run anything down, he can steal off anyone, he does have some pop, and he is learning how to bunt this year. When he puts it all together, he is amazing. He is the fastest player in our organization, like you said, but I would put money down that he is [one of the] top-five fastest players in pro baseball.
BCB: Have you seen the kid at West Virginia, Lee Haydel, run? He's supposedly the only guy that can compete with Ford [in the system].
SC: (laughs) He’s a nice guy, and nothing against him, but he can’t keep up with Darren. I’m pretty fast, and I raced Darren two days ago about 40 yards, and he gave me a 10-foot head start and beat me by four steps. It’s crazy--he doesn’t run, he floats.
BCB: Tell me about watching Jeffress pitch—is his stuff as good as they say it is?
SC: Yeah, it’s good--really good. Mid-90's fastball with a really good changeup. The only time he gets in trouble is when he leaves his fastball up in the zone, but that doesn’t happen too often.
BCB: How's his breaking stuff?
SC: Good. I don’t know a lot about pitching, but I’ve seem him make numerous hitters look stupid up there. An 87 mile-per-hour slider is unfair.
BCB: He's had a couple starts this year where he dominated but then fell apart completely in one inning. What's going on in those?
SC: Leaving the ball up in the zone sometimes, trying to over-throw sometimes.
BCB: How about Zach Braddock? He's posted numbers almost as good as Jeffress', but doesn't have the same stuff.
SC: Zach has a good fastball, about 90, and he challenges hitters, which is awesome, but he gets in trouble sometimes. I like when Zach pitches--he goes after hitters. He doesn’t nibble and BS; he gives you what he’s got and if you hit it, you hit it.
BCB: How does he get in trouble sometimes?
SC: Getting too fired up and over-throwing. He gets too pumped up on the mound; he tried to do too much at times.
BCB: Back to you: tell me a little about learning to play first base. Did you ever play it before?
SC: I played it my freshman year in high school, just because they didn’t have one on varsity, and I was hitting so good at the time, but other than that, I’ve been an outfielder. First base is different, though. I have to say, I like the outfield better.
BCB: Has the team moved you to first just because of the crowded outfield position [in the system], or do they want you there long-term?
SC: Your guess is as good as mine. I hope it’s just because we don’t have anyone there right now in Brevard. I enjoy outfield better and am 100 times better there, but if I can get to the big leagues quicker by playing first base, I’m more than happy to play first.
BCB: It seems like the Brewers have a million outfielders: Cameron might be gone next year, but then you have Matt LaPorta, and then there’s Cole Gillespie and Michael Brantley at AA, plus Lorenzo Cain, you, and Darren Ford. And Mat Gamel might end up out there too.
SC: I know, it’s ridiculous.
BCB: What did you think of Gamel's defense in the Hawaii Winter League?
SC: Good, he improved his defense a ton this winter. He can just flat-out play.
BCB: Considering all the outfielders, maybe you should convert to catcher.
SC: I don’t think I’ll make it too far as a left-handed catcher, but hey, you never know.
BCB: So, who are your good buddies on the team and in the organization?
SC: Shoot, there are too many to list. Gamel, Brantley, Ford, Green, [Mike] Bell, [Kenny] Holmberg, [Brent] Brewer, [Omar] Aguilar. LaPorta. Me and [Chris] Errecart are good friends also.
BCB: Tell some of those other guys to do interviews with me!
SC: (laughs) I’ll let them know.
BCB: Well, that's about all I've got for you. Anything else you want Brewers fans to know?
SC: That’s about it. Hopefully I’ll get to meet them soon.
BCB: Good luck the rest of the season.
SC: Thank you.
5 comments | 1 recs
Prospect Progress Report
I like following prospects. It's like having Christmas Eve all the time, every player a wrapped present of infinite promise, each with the potential to be a Red Ryder carbine-action BB gun with a compass in the stock. Sure, sometimes they turn out to be socks, but there's always another present to open. With that in mind, let's see how our Christmas is shaping up:
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