Friday's Frosty Mug
It's quiet this morning, but it likely won't stay that way for long as today is the first day teams can offer contracts to free agents from other teams. Brewed Sports wants the Brewers to make an early splash by signing Kerry Wood and Randy Johnson. Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks wants the Brewers to sign Eric Hinske. I'm just hoping the Brewers don't sign anyone who will join Eric Gagne, Jeff Suppan and Jeffrey Hammonds on a future version of this top ten list of worst contracts in Wisconsin sports history.
Baseball Digest Daily released their free agent rankings today. Since lists make a short Mug seem longer, here are the Brewer highlights:
- CC Sabathia is the top rated starting pitcher.
- Ben Sheets is the third rated starting pitcher.
- Russell Branyan is ranked third among third basemen.
- Ray Durham is ranked fourth among second basemen.
- Brian Shouse is the fifth rated lefty reliever.
- Mike Lamb is ranked fifth among third basemen.
- Gabe Kapler is ranked sixth among right fielders.
- Guillermo Mota is the sixth rated "utility reliever."
- Eric Gagne is the eighth rated closer.
- Craig Counsell is ranked eleventh among shortstops.
Technically, Salomon Torres could have been a free agent as well, but the Brewers exercised his option so he will be under team control if he decides to return. The Official Site has an overview of the bullpen situation.
As noted in the FanShots, Ryan Braun became the eighth Brewer in franchise history to win a Silver Slugger Award yesterday.
If Braun lives up to his Bill James projection for 2009, he might win another one: .301/.364/.620. Bill James projections for individual players are available on the player pages at FanGraphs. If you want the whole collection, you're supposed to buy the book. I sat down yesterday with a notepad file and Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis tool and discovered that, despite low projections for Mike Cameron and Bill Hall, a 2009 Brewer lineup featuring Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Fielder, Hart, Cameron, Hall, Kendall and the pitcher's spot projects to 4.965 runs per game. The 2008 Brewers only scored 4.630.
While I'm on the subject of stats, R.J. Anderson of Beyond the Box Score is working on numbers to quantify the volume of wins or losses added by a manager. His initial numbers have management costing the Brewers approximately .04 wins in 2008. I'm pretty sure Yost was responsible for more than that.
Does the entire Brewers' organization have defensive problems? No less than five Brewer prospects appear on Recondite Baseball's leaderboards for errors in the minor leagues this season.
Two trades were completed yesterday, one sending Nick Swisher to the Yankees and one sending Kevin Gregg to the Cubs. Two other stove notes today:
D-Backs: Negotiations with Randy Johnson have apparently hit an impasse, leading Johnson to declare free agency.
Marlins: The team is reportedly listening to offers but not actively seeking a trade involving Jeremy Hermida or Dan Uggla.
Do you love physics and want to use it to understand why a sidearmer's pitches have different movement? It's a bit much for me, but maybe Matt Lentzner of The Hardball Times' article is just what you were looking for.
Oh, and NL Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum is perpetuating the theory that he's only 15 by spending the offseason getting braces and a puppy.
Drink up.
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Tuesday's Frosty Mug
Tom H. says the Brewers likely will not announce their new manager until after the World Series. View From Bernie's Chalet hopes it's Ken Macha and not Bob Brenly. MetsBlog notes that Willie Randolph is also a candidate and if the Brewers hire him, it will save the Mets $2.25 million he is owed if he doesn't manage in 2009.
Yesterday I noted that the Brewers hope to have Mike Maddux back as pitching coach in 2009. It appears they're not the only team interested in his services. The Dallas Morning News is reporting Maddux could be a candidate for Texas' pitching coach vacancy.
Welcome back to the debate on the value of Rickie Weeks. Beyond the Box Score lists Weeks as 2008's 14th best second baseman, and actually credits him with saving 4 runs in the field. Ray Durham was 20th, creating 22 extra runs with the bat and costing his teams 9 in the field. If Weeks really is +4 runs in the field, then he's better defensively than all of the following:
- Dan Uggla
- Ian Kinsler
- Mark DeRosa
- Akinori Iwamura
- Kelly Johnson
- Joe Inglett
- Kaz Matsui
- Howie Kendrick
- Ray Durham
- Orlando Hudson
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Aaron Miles
- Jamey Carroll
- Jeff Kent
- Alexei Ramirez
- Mark Grudzielanek
This has already been Rec'd a whole bunch of times so most of you have probably seen it, but if you haven't yet check out TheJay's calendar of important offseason dates, which answers at least 12-15 of the questions I've posed in this blog over the last couple of weeks.
Today's Sabathia Smorgasbord is more of a light breakfast. CC was a nominee, but did not win the MLBPA's National League Ooutstanding Pitcher award, which instead went to Tim Lincecum.
If this isn't resolved soon, I'm going to need a witty alliteration for Jake Peavy, as well: Bernie Miklasz says the Cardinals are out of the running for Peavy. It is about the money, stupid says the Astros are out as well. Texas seems like a long shot to land him, but Lone Star Ball has compiled some reasons why they should try.
Elsewhere on the hot stove, the Dodgers have declined Angel Berroa's 2009 option, making him a free agent. The Cardinals have also declined the option on Mark Mulder, who has thrown just 12.2 innings over the last two seasons.
So I'm becoming a fall/winter league nerd, I'll admit it. Yesterday I traded a few emails with an ESPN employee with his finger on the pulse of the minor leagues, and he had this to say:
That's all I've got for you today, unless you need a laser level?
Drink up.
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Wednesday's Frosty Mug
I'm getting old. Last night's game was played in a neat and tidy 2:34, but since it started at 9 I still couldn't stay up through it.
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
All of today's reads will be better if read in the comforting voice of Morgan Freeman.
So, a nice start to the road trip and a 7-game winning streak, right? So what's the national media talking about? CC Sabathia went shopping for houses yesterday.
Ryan Braun doesn't seem to know exactly what's wrong with him. Doctors are still using phrases like "puzzling symptoms." But Gord Ash says Ryan Braun will be back in 2-4 days. I just asked the Magic 8 Ball if Ryan Braun will play on this road trip and was told, "Don't count on it."
Jeremy Jeffress was supposed to make his first start in AA last night at Huntsville, but the game was rained out. I'm assuming that means he'll pitch Game 1 of tonight's doubleheader, which starts at 5:05.
Adam McCalvy of The Official Site is reporting that Yovani Gallardo is along on the road trip and could throw off a mound before the Brewers return home. A September return looks a little more plausible every day.
Are the daytime shadows in Miller Park the worst of any park in the majors? Nats C Wil Nieves seems to think so.
On injuries:
Carl Crawford will have surgery to repair damaged tendons in his finger and will be out until at least September 25.
Andruw Jones has been placed on the DL with patellar tendinitis.
Tim Lincecum took a line drive off his knee last night, but X-rays were negative. He shouldn't miss a start.
Rangers SP Vicente Padilla is doubtful for his start Thursday.
White Sox OF Carlos Quentin missed last night's game after being hit by pitches on five straight days.
Phils OF Shane Victorino left last night's game with lower back stiffness.
Quick transaction notes from around the web: The Red Sox acquired Paul Byrd yesterday and Micah Owings has been confirmed as one of the PTBNL in the Adam Dunn deal.
Both the Red Sox and the Rangers will need more pitching after last night's 19-17 slugfest. If you're bored today, go look at the Win Expectancy Graph and play log front last night's game. The Red Sox were at 98.6% to win in the first inning, came all the way back down to 18% in the 7th, and still somehow snuck out with a victory.
Oh, and the people who make TV ads for 24-Hour Fitness can't count.
Drink up.
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Game Thread #98: Brewers (54-43) at Giants (40-57)
For the first time in the series, the pitching matchup appears to favor the other guys--Manny Parra goes against Tim Lincecum. Lincecum missed the All-Star Game due to flu-like symptoms, but it sounds like he's ok.
You've probably noticed, but Parra has been impressive of late. Lincecum may have a 2.57 season ERA and a 3.33 mark in his last 7 starts, but Parra's at 2.68 in those same last 7. It's asking a lot to expect Parra to keep pitching like this, but even his regression-happy Marcel projection puts him under 4.00 for the rest of the season.
Game time is 3:05 CT, and here's the BR Game Preview.
Go Brewers!
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Friday's Frosty Mug
Finally, we're back to regular season baseball...if this break had gone on much longer, I might have started building things out of cardboard.
I've gotten so used to scrolling past JS articles without reading them that I almost missed this Anthony Witrado piece on the trials and tribulations of Prince Fielder, which isn't half bad.
If I asked you to guess which Brewer swings at the most pitches that aren't strikes, would Ryan Braun have been one of your first five guesses? Me either. But Beyond the Box Score has him swinging at 35.28% of balls, which is in the top 10 in all of baseball.
UPDATE: Turns out the stat actually means 35.28% of the pitches he swings at are outside the strike zone. Thanks to Battlekow for correcting my work but ignoring our Scrabble game.
I'm guilty of complaining about it myself, but do the Brewers really struggle to hit bad pitching? Turns out the answer is no.
Would an interview with a sideline reporter normally be interesting enough to make the Mug? No. But Trenni...well, Trenni's a lot smarter than your average sideline reporter.
On injuries:
Aaron Harang's "forearm strain" diagnosis could be a sign of worse things to come.
Orlando Hernandez was pulled from his rehab start with a sore foot after just one inning of throwing the banana.
Scott Kazmir isn't injured, but his next start is being pushed back a couple of days after his unexpected All-Star Game outing.
Tim Lincecum's flulike symptoms turned out to be dehydration, and he should be fine.
Pedro Martinez has been scratched from his start Sunday and received a cortisone shot on his sore groin. Ouch.
Edgar Renteria left last night's game with a sore left hamstring (again).
It's possible the pitching market may dry up well before the trading deadline. Yesterday, the Phillies traded three prospects to the A's for Joe Blanton. Phillies Nation thinks it was the wrong move. In the meantime, does this mean the best pitcher still available is Erik Bedard?
Maybe it's actually Francisco Liriano. He's 7-0 with a 2.73 ERA in his last nine starts in AAA, and he's filed a grievance with the Twins, since his extended stay in AAA will keep him from being arbitration eligible this winter. Ron Gardenhire is not at all happy about the union trying to dictate his roster management.
This would be an even bigger dictation: Major League Baseball is considering taking a break for the Olympics, if baseball returns as an Olympic sport in 2016.
For once, the Yankees were frugal: They've signed Richie Sexson, but only for a pro-rated share of the $390,000 league minimum salary.
The All-Star Game pulled in a bit more than $390,000 in ad revenue. Marketwatch takes a look at the relationship between television and baseball, and how the All-Star Game coverage has changed over the years.
Royals beat writer Sam Mellinger has hardly slept for days and just got done sitting in a really uncomfortable seat at Yankee Stadium for several days, but wanted to take a moment to tell us all about the stresses of being a writer. I've emailed him and offered to trade jobs, if he's interested.
Oh, and if you're not sure what you're eating today, try out the Wheel of Lunch.
Drink up.
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Wednesday's Frosty Mug
All-Star Game Win Probability
BR doesn't appear to have a box score.
Aside from, of course, the ridiculously covered All-Star game, the biggest Brewer news is probably the new infield the team will be playing on when they return home from the break. It can't hurt.
Bodog Sports has the Brewers at 7:2 odds to win the NL (second best, behind the Cubs) and 12:1 to win the World Series, tied for fifth with the White Sox.
Riding the Pine gives the Brewers a B- for their first half. They should've done more extra credit to see if they could sneak up to a B.
No injuries today (thankfully), so let's go straight to the other news: Even though the game went 15 innings and both teams ran out of players, Tim Lincecum couldn't pitch last night and had to check into the hospital due to flulike symptoms. That's a tough break. Does anyone remember a few years ago when Greg Vaughn was the only position player who didn't play in the game because he got food poisoning at the All-Star Gala?
In the other dugout, AL manager Terry Francona said he thought Scott Kazmir, who wasn't supposed to pitch at all, still had an inning or two left, but if the game continued past that he was ready to turn to J.D. Drew.
Which is more valuable: 3 solid bullpen arms or one dominant closer? Skyking162 is on the case.
Yesterday was TheJay's birthday. He spent it writing a post about team LOB percentages for Recondite Baseball. Could someone please help him learn how to appropriately spend a birthday?
Roy Halladay is upset with the Jays annual return to mediocrity. He's taken less money to stay, eaten a ton of innings and pitched Cy Young caliber baseball for years on middle of the road teams so I understand why he's upset, but pitching in Toronto does have one added perk: topless women in the outfield.
That doesn't happen at Yankee Stadium, I'd guess, although there is a NASA Gigapan you can check out if you want to make sure.
Alyssa Milano is done dating baseball players. Thankfully, if players are forced to date someone with less baseball savvy, the Mets are offering a seminar to teach women about baseball.
Got Facebook? Good. Go become a fan of Brew Crew Ball. You can add your photos, videos and other stuff and it won't get washed away like the Fanshots and Fanposts do.
Drink up.
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Friday's Crystal Callix
The biggest news this morning, courtesy of Ken Rosenthal, is that Matt LaPorta is officially on the trading block, and that Alcides Escobar might be packaged with him to acquire C.C. Sabathia. That price sounds a little steep to me, but Tom Haudricourt reports that the Indians have also been scouting Taylor Green. LaPorta and Green sounds about right, which would free the Brewers to trade Escobar or J.J. Hardy (who is confirmed to be available, along with Rickie Weeks) for A.J. Burnett, because the Blue Jays need a shortstop. Haudricourt doubts the Brewers are really offering LaPorta and/or Escobar, but given recent history, I think I'd believe Robothal first.
The Yost Infection takes umbrage with BA & Rock's fellating of Hardy's defense, citing his terrible zone rating, but fails to note the fact that Hardy leads all of baseball in out-of-zone plays; in other words, the Brewers' defensive shifting is messing up his zone rating. He's still not as good as Escobar, though.
LaPorta, Escobar, and Mat Gamel all made what I guess is best called Baseball America's Midseason Prospect All-Star Team, which roughly means they're near the top of their positions in all of prospectdom, but the corrosponding chat casts doubt on whether Gamel and Angel Salome can stick at their current defensive positions.
At FanGraphs, Marc Hulet (who I'm beginning to suspect is a big Brewers fan) points out that there are other interesting prospects in the system beyond the big names, namely Michael Brantley and Cole Gillespie. The point is especially well-taken about Gillespie, who's hitting like a mini-LaPorta, putting up a .273/.374/.498 line. Hulet also put Brad Nelson on his AAA non-prospect All-Star team; I think Nelson would make an excellent throw-in in whatever trade the Brewers end up executing, as he's never going to get a shot in Milwaukee.
Speaking of trades, Scott Linebrink Cutter Dykstra hit his first professional home run for Helena.
Dykstra's fellow draftee, 41st-round Cal State Fullerton SS Joe Scott, is playing summer ball in Alaska and "there's a chance he might sign a professional contract if he plays well this summer." He previously spurned the Brewers last year when they drafted him in the 39th round.
Tired of reading about prospects? Michael Garciaparra probably is too, though he doesn't regret choosing minor league baseball over a two-sport college career at the University of Tennessee.
Back in the big leagues, Tim Lincecum dropped the hammer on the Cubs while Mike Pelfrey dominated the Cardinals, keeping the Brewers from losing any ground after the game I don't remember. David Pinto notes that Lincecum exhibited unusually good control.
Speaking of which, having nightmares about the bullpen after yesterday? This should help.
At Recondite Baseball, TheJay takes a look at players who achieved the Alex Sanchez Special, having a lower on-base percentage than batting average. He ran down the Brewers' leaders in an earlier post.
Before today, all I know about Max Scherzer was that he threw really hard and had heterochromia. Now, thanks to Eric Seidman's interview, I know that Scherzer's a pretty sharp guy with an interest in cutting edge baseball research. I'm amazed that he's able to get anyone out pitching from his mother's basement.
That'll do it. What's that? You wanted another song? If you don't got Mojo Nixon then your store could use some fixin'!
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BCB Interviews First-rounder Jake Odorizzi

Jake Odorizzi was the Brewers' second pick on draft day, the 32nd overall selection from Highland HS in southern Illinois. After not allowing a single run this year (and breaking a metal bat), he was considered by some to be the top high school arm in the draft, quite a coup for the Brewers in the supplemental round. Hopefully he develops more along the lines of Yovani Gallardo (46th overall) than Mark Rogers (5th overall).
BCB: You've been pretty quiet since you got drafted, haven't heard much about you. I know you won state; that must have been pretty exciting.
JO: Yeah, it was pretty awesome.
BCB: What have you been doing since then?
JO: Just chillin’, takin’ it easy, relaxing till I go to Arizona.
BCB: When are you headed down there?
JO: July 1st.
BCB: Do you know anyone in the organization?
JO: Nope, nobody.
BCB: What does an 18-year-old do when he suddenly gets a million dollars?
JO: I don’t know; I’m going to get a new car or something.
BCB: A million dollar car? A flying car?
JO: (laughs) Not quite.
BCB: So, I heard you talking to Jim Powell on the radio about how the Brewers said they were going to take you with either the 32nd or 35th pick. Did any team tell you they were thinking about you before that?
JO: [The Astros] talked about taking me at 10, and the Cubs at 19.
BCB: Did you grow up a Cubs fan or a Cardinals fan?
JO: Cardinals.
BCB: Would you have been just the tiniest bit disappointed to get drafted by the Cubs then?
JO: No, I would’ve been okay with that.
BCB: You're supposed to say, "I hate the Cubs!"
JO: (laughs)
BCB: So you don't mind playing for a division rival of your favorite team?
JO: No, I wouldn’t have cared.
BCB: Were you disappointed to slide into the supplemental round?
JO: Kinda, but it’s still first round.
BCB: I think you said on the radio that if you went in the top 40, you were probably going pro.
JO: Yeah, that’s what my game plan was.
BCB: Can you describe what you throw?
JO: Four-seam, slider, curve, and change.
BCB: Are you going to keep both the slider and curve as a pro?
JO: The slider for sure. I may work on a new curve.
BCB: What is your current curve like?
JO: A spiked curve.
BCB: How do you want to change it?
JO: To a regular curve.
BCB: How is the movement on your current spike curve different from how a regular curve would move?
JO: [The spike is] 12-to-6.
BCB: So basically you're looking for a tighter curve?
JO: Yeah, I am.
BCB: How hard do you usually throw?
JO: 92 to 94 consistently. I top out at 97.
BCB: How hard is your slider?
JO: Upper 80's when it’s good.
BCB: Some scouts thought you were the best high school arm in the draft. Did you ever see Alex Meyer or Tim Melville pitch? They're from nearby states.
JO: I’ve never seen either of them pitch, but I hear they are really good.
BCB: Who’s the best guy you played against?
JO: Walker Kelly. He had Tommy John [ed: Actually, Kelly ended up not having surgery]. He’s a lefty. Brings it at 94, 95. He’s going to [Texas Christian University].
BCB: How about the best hitter?
JO: Eric Hosmer.
BCB: How did you do against him?
JO: I think he got a single.
BCB: What's the best way to get him out?
JO: Hope he takes a bad swing.
BCB: Speaking of swinging, you're apparently pretty good at it yourself. Are you glad you got drafted by an NL team?
JO: Yeah, I wanna be able to hit.
BCB: What's your best position on the field?
JO: Shortstop.
BCB: Do you prefer playing shortstop to pitching, or vice versa?
JO: I like ‘em both a lot.
BCB: How good of a pro prospect would you be as a shortstop?
JO: I think I could’ve made it. I had a great past two seasons hitting.
BCB: Well, you won't get to hit as a pro until AA, so you'll have to move up the ladder quickly.
JO: (laughs) Yeah, a little [extra] motivation.
BCB: Are there any big leaguers you model your game after?
JO: Tim Lincecum.
BCB: That's a pretty good model, and a pretty new one too. What attracted you to him?
JO: He’s smaller like me and throws hard.
BCB: His dad has some pretty detailed theories on mechanics, about how to throw hard and stay healthy. Have you read what he has to say?
JO: No, I haven’t.
BCB: Has the team talked to you about changing your mechanics at all, or do they like the way you do things currently?
JO: Nothing yet.
At this point, technology intervened, preventing me from asking Jake if his nickname was "Eggs".
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Wednesday's Frosty Mug
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
Here are some photos of last night's heroes: Hardy, Hall, and Cameron
Remember yesterday, when some kid named Eli destroyed his credibility by suggesting the Brewers were getting ready to DFA Bill Hall? Today he thinks they'll trade Ben Sheets. I'm going to go ahead and pull him off my reading list so he'll stop wasting our time.
Coming off a split with the Nats, the Brewers have dropped to 20th in the most recent Bugs and Cranks poll.
Ok, so Tuesday was light on Brewer news, but it's heavy on injuries:
Pat Burrell was scratched from last night's game with stiffness in his neck.
Eric Byrnes has been placed on the DL to give him some time to recover from tweaked hamstrings.
Braves OF Matt Diaz has been placed on the DL with a strained PCL in his knee after a collision with the wall last night.
Travis Hafner missed his second straight game last night with a sore shoulder.
Yankees P Ian Kennedy left last night's start with a strained muscle in his rib cage.
Daisuke Matsuzaka complained of shoulder fatigue last night after the third inning, but was still sent out for one more inning before being pulled.
Cards P Joel Piniero has missed one start and may miss more with a sore groin.
Gary Sheffield has been placed on the DL with a strained oblique.
Frank Thomas left last night's game with a strained quad and will get an MRI today.
Matt Wise is headed back to the DL with weakness in his shoulder.
Tim Lincecum isn't hurt at the moment, but Dave Pinto at Baseball Musings is scared the Giants will run him into the ground. He threw over 120 pitches last night, and has gone 110 or more five times this season.
Oh, and I love Mitch Hedberg.
Drink up.
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