Monday's (Late) Frosty Mug
Wow. Just wow.
Friday:
Brewers 5, Cubs 1
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score
Marlins 6, Mets 1
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score
Saturday:
Cubs 7, Brewers 3
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score
Mets 2, Marlins 0
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score
Sunday:
Brewers 3, Cubs 1
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score
Marlins 4, Brewers 2
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score
Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Milwaukee Brewers, winners of the NL Wild Card. You can get your Wild Card gear here, but I'm saving my budget and waiting to see if there's NL Champion or even World Series Champion gear yet to come.
Of course, just about every Brewer blog under the sun (and some non-Brewer blogs) has a celebratory post today, and since I'm in a celebratory mood, I'm going to link them all:
- Adam Charles of Bugs and Cranks
- Another Baseball Blog
- Babes Love Baseball
- Brewers Bar
- Bernie's Crew
- Brewed Sports
- The Brew Town Beat
- Chuckie Hacks
- Fire Ned Yost
- The Griddle
- The Junkball Blues
- Viva Cerveceros
- The Yost Infection
45,299 fans were there to see it yesterday, giving the Brewers a season total of 3,068,458. Of course, if that wasn't enough celebration for you, you can celebrate with the team from 4-8 today at the Summerfest grounds. I wish I could.
I'm not going to link to every photo shot at yesterday's game, although I could. Instead, I'll give you my favorite three, and you can click through to any of them and scroll through the rest if you want.
After the game, Tom H. got quotes from Doug Melvin, Ben Sheets, Dale Sveum, Dave Bush and Craig Counsell.
Ok, let's talk about CC Sabathia for a moment. Ken Rosenthal talked to him after the game about pitching on short rest and everything he's done to help this team win. Scott Miller says Sabathia delivered a postseason to Milwaukee. Rosenthal ranked Sabathia 4th on his NL MVP ballot (and ranked Doug Melvin 3rd for Executive of the Year). Rosenthal has apparently been typing non-stop since the end of action yesterday, because he also wrote that the bold move of firing Ned Yost paid off.
At most recent count, Ryan Braun ranks seventh in the voting for NL MVP over at Beyond the Box Score. Go cast your vote. Meanwhile, The Hardball Times noted a lot more Braun jerseys than Fielders in the crowd at Miller Park. I own a Braun jersey too, but not a Fielder, mainly because I know Braun will still be a Brewer for a few more years.
Remember when we all signed up to pee our pants if the Brewers made the playoffs? I don't remember if I signed up or not, but I'm not ruining my pants. Here's a youtube video of someone who actually did.
Two-Fisted Slopper wonders if everything has happened for a reason, and all the terrible play Wes Helms showed in Milwaukee was just part of the building process towards his home run for the Marlins yesterday.
So now, the Phillies. Cole Hamels will pitch Game One on Wednesday. Todd Zolecki of the Philadelphia Inquirer is my favorite Phillies blogger, and he has a quick series preview here and a quick analysis of the Brewer pitching staff here.
MLB Playoff Odds has the Brewers at 45.7% to win their series with the Phillies, 20.5% to win the NLCS and 9.4% to win the World Series. All three of those numbers are the lowest among the 4 NL playoff teams. Jon Heyman is predicting a Cubs World Series win. I'm predicting I'll get a few more opportunities this year to roll my eyes while linking a Jon Heyman column. In other predictions: Crawfish Boxes has the Phillies winning in the first round, and Purple Row has the Brewers losing to the Rays in the World Series.
If the Brewers/Phillies matchup isn't intriguing enough for you, The Junkball Blues handicaps the 2008 Brewers/1982 Brewers matchup.
Phil Rogers ranked the Brewers 6th in his new power rankings.
On injuries:
Rocco Baldelli was reported to have muscular dystrophy over the weekend, but has since denied it.
Josh Beckett strained an oblique muscle while throwing a side session and won't pitch until at least game 3 of the ALDS.
Francisco Cordero had surgery over the weekend to remove a bone spur from his right foot. He was able to do it this early because he plays on a team that didn't make the playoffs.
Dodgers RP Hong-Chih Kuo will be left off the NLDS roster with numbness in his fingers.
Giants SP Noah Lowry will undergo surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow.
So now, for the first time in 26 years, we as Brewer fans get to try to re-work our schedules to catch must-see baseball games at bizarre times in the afternoon on a work day. Bugs & Cranks has an open letter to baseball regarding the situation (potentially NSFW language).
The end of the regular season also means the coaching carousel is in full swing. So far, I haven't heard about any managers moving on, but the Tigers fired their pitching and bullpen coaches, the Nationals fired five coaches from their staff after losing 102 games, and the winds of change are starting to blow in Texas. Joe Torre's job is probably safe in Los Angeles, even though Nomar Garciaparra managed yesterday's game.
Speaking of Torre, he's one of three current MLB managers The Hardball Times thinks are locks for the Hall of Fame.
Jayson Stark has his Year in Review up. I could give or take most of his award voting, but the quirky quotes and box score lines make it a must read if you're as nerdy as I am.
Among players over 24 years old, Russell Branyan had the highest MLE (Major League Equivalent) stat line this season. Second place fell to Nelson Cruz.
So Cliff Lee was scratched from the final game of the season yesterday, giving him 22 wins to finish the season and an almost certain AL Cy Young. Tangotiger wants to know what you think he's worth. I know most people will pay him more, but I had a hard time cracking $10 mil/year for a guy who's only had one good season.
Oh, and Brad Nelson and Joe Dillon are probably more concerned with their current jobs, but Baseball Analysts says they'd be candidates to spend 2009 in Japan.
Drink up.
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Thursday's Frosty Mug
Fangraphs is still showing Monday's Win Probability Graph. That made me wonder for a second if I'd only imagined yesterday's win.
BR Box Score
So, obviously the biggest news from yesterday is this: Ben Sheets left the game after 2 innings with what was at the time called "forearm tightness," but has now been renamed an elbow injury. Sheets says he's had lingering pain, but there's no structural damage. All of this has been cleverly hidden from the
Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks is trying to put Sheets' Brewer career into perspective.
Jim Powell's blog from after last night's game discussed the Yost firing, last night's win and his usual collection of links to other stuff he's done.
Speaking of the Yost firing, news on it continues to trickle in. Jon Heyman is confirming what many have suspected: the order to fire Yost came from Mark Attanasio himself. Also, Sabernomics HAS NO CONCEPT.
The Brew Town Beat wonders if the Yost firing might have been a turning point for Prince Fielder.
Major League Baseball released the schedules for 2009 yesterday. You can read Tom H.'s highlights here or see the whole thing here.
Sky Kalkman has a post over at Beyond the Box Score taking a look at candidates for NL MVP. No Brewer ranked above #15 (Ryan Braun), but Gabe Kapler managed to make it all the way up to #65 with just 245 plate appearances.
The new Bugs & Cranks new power rankings have the Brewers at 11.
I haven't seen it noted anywhere else, but Al is reporting that the West Virginia Power have signed a player development deal with the Pirates for next season, making it all the more likely that the Brewers will have their low-A team in Appleton next season.
On injuries:
Orioles SP Daniel Cabrera was scratched from his scheduled start Friday after experiencing tingling in his elbow during a bullpen session.
Nomar Garciaparra left last night's game in the fourth inning after reinjuring his knee running the bases.
Torii Hunter was hit in the face during BP last night, and while the injuries aren't believed to be serious, he sat out last night's game.
Hanley Ramirez left last night's game with a sore shoulder after hitting two home runs.
Jarrod Washburn's disappointing season with the Mariners is ending early due to a strained abdominal muscle.
Also, the Nats have shut down Ronnie Belliard, Jesus Flores, Austin Kearns and Dmitri Young for the rest of 2008.
One record was broken quietly last night: Ichiro Suzuki reached 200 hits for the 8th consecutive season last night. No AL player has ever done that (Ty Cobb never did it more than 3 straight), and the last player to do it in either league was Willie Keeler, 107 years ago.
In other monumental feats, twice in three days a Red Sox hitter has hit a home run ball at Tropicana Field that will never come down.
The wheels continue to spin as MLB teams work to figure out where their AAA affiliates will play next season. Walkoff Walk has a map for you, if you haven't been keeping up.
Did you realize it's been 74 years since a left-handed thrower played shortstop in the major leagues? I had no idea. Tangotiger looks at the reasons and asks if a superior fielder could still handle the position throwing left-handed.
Oh, and I got Rickrolled by John Hodgman yesterday.
Drink up.
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Monday's Frosty Mug
Now I know why they call them the Dog Days of Summer. Yesterday: 95 degrees, heat index over 110. Today's forecast: 96, heat index over 110. If it stays like this I might die, but Gorman can't wait to go outside and lay in the driveway. (UPDATE: New pics of Gorman are up.)
Oh yeah, and the Brewers took 2 of 3 on the road.
Friday's Win Expectancy Graph
Friday's BR Box Score
Saturday's Win Expectancy Graph
Saturday's BR Box Score
Sunday's Win Expectancy Graph
Sunday's BR Box Score
Well, the road winning streak is over, stopped at 9 games, but Jim Powell notes that if not for the 9th inning collapse in Arizona a month ago, it would've been a franchise record 12 games coming into yesterday. You can also click that link for his thoughts on Rickie Weeks, Brett Favre and...Roger Federer? Really?
The Junkball Blues takes a look at Prince Fielder, and his climb back from disappointing to stellar in 2008.
Seamheads puts the Brewers at 20-1 odds to win the NL Central. BP Postseason Odds have the Brewers at 13.3%, which is slightly less than 3-in-20, so I guess that's close to fair. Spitting Seeds predicts the three NL division leaders will win their divisions and the Wild Card leader will win the Wild Card. Gutsy.
Phil Rogers ranks the Brewers 9th in his most recent power rankings, but that's actually 8th if you only count MLB teams. The Whisnant rankings at Dugout Central have been revamped and now list the Brewers 10th.
Dayn Perry says the Wild Card is hurting, not helping, baseball in 2008. One could say the same thing about Dayn Perry.
Jon Heyman lists the Brewers among the trade deadline winners. They must have won pretty big, because before the Sabathia trade Heyman hardly noticed their existence.
On injuries:
Mets OF Marlon Anderson has been placed on the DL with a hamstring strain.
A's RP Andrew Brown has been placed on the DL with biceps tendinitis.
Cards OF Chris Duncan will miss the rest of the season following surgery to replace a disc in his neck.
Nomar Garciaparra has been placed on the DL with a strained roster spot.
Ken Griffey, Jr. left Saturday's game with "heat-related cramping."
Royals 2B Mark Grudzielanek left Friday's game after colliding with 1B Russ Gload.
Reds IF/OF Jerry Hairston, Jr. will miss a couple of days at the very least with a sore hamstring.
Orlando Hernandez still needs a special shoe to throw the banana.
Mets SP John Maine won't be able to pitch through a strained rotator cuff after all. He's on the DL.
Phillies RP Rudy Seanez has been placed on the DL with shoulder and back soreness.
Braves RP Rafael Soriano has been placed on the DL for the third time in 2008 with elbow inflammation.
The first trade deadline has come and passed, of course, but trades are still available for those willing to wander through the obscure and byzantine procedures of post-deadline waiver trading. MLB Trade Rumors has a nice roundup of posts explaining the rules.
I'm a little disappointed in myself today. I just realized that Khalil Greene injured himself punching a storage chest and I completely failed to mention that he'd been attacked by THE SPAZZOSAURUS!
Drink up. Drink two, in fact. It's hot out there.
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5 Questions with Rob McMillin of 6-4-2
Ok, so it isn't exactly a series preview...consider it a rest-of-series preview. Rob runs the great Dodgers/Angels site 6-4-2, and he was kind enough to take the time to answer some questions about one of his teams for us. Without further ado:
Q: You've had the opportunity to watch Joe Torre in action for six weeks now--kind of like the previous decade, I'd imagine, only on local TV instead of national. What are your impressions so far?
A: Torre seems to be under the impression that the press release version of his team is the actual team; it's certainly the only explanation why Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones have both appeared as starters in various lineups. With Rafael Furcal out, it's simply shocking to have Torre miss what seems obvious to everyone else: Andre Ethier is the team's second best hitter, and the Dodgers can ill-afford to miss both while plugging in arguably worse defense (and certainly worse offense) in left.
Q: In Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones, the Dodgers have a pair of outfielders who are underperforming the youngsters in every category but age. How do you see the outfield situation shaking out over the course of the season? Are there any other prospects who Pierre might end up blocking?
A: My inclination is to place the blame for this squarely on the shoulders of ownership. As Joe Sheehan recently pointed out in a Baseball Prospectus piece picked up by Sports Illustrated, the Dodgers are really three teams in one: the Paul DePodesta Dodgers, the Ned Colletti Dodgers, and the (VP of Scouting) Logan White Dodgers. Unsurprisingly, the Logan White team is the most productive as measured by value-for-salary, but the Colletti players -- which includes the likes of Jason Schmidt, Nomar Garciaparra, Juan Pierre, and Andruw Jones -- contains all the deadweight. "Grady Little's inability to play his best players at the expense of those veterans was the critical factor in the Dodgers finishing eight games out in a competitive NL West", Sheehan opined, and it's absolutely a factor again with Torre running the team.
Unfortunately, it's unclear what the Dodgers will do going forward. Pierre's contract virtually dictates he will end up with playing time (almost certainly too much and at the expense of Ethier, from what we can gather so far). Likewise Jones' glove, and more, his arm represent a significant improvement over the noodle Pierre uses to toss his rainbow throws back to the infield. If there were a clearly superior outfield prospect in the wings, it seems likely that the Dodgers would have blocked that player, too. So, no, I have no idea how this will shake out, other than to say it will be done sub-optimally.
Q: Similar question: with Blake DeWitt playing well, Andy LaRoche stuck in AAA, and Nomar pretending to healthy sometime soon, what will happen at third? If you were running the team, what would you do about that spot?
A: I would tell Nomar his duties are limited to pinch-hitting and spot starting, or cut him. The best thing he's done for the 2008 Dodgers so far has to spend substantial time on the DL, thus giving Blake DeWitt an extended showcase. I don't think DeWitt is quite as good as he's shown so far, and LaRoche will probably, eventually, develop more power, but either or both of those young players can bring to the table more, now, than Nomar. (In case you can't tell, the big problem with this team is that it doesn't have enough injuries to the right players.)
Q: The Brewers aren't going to see Hideki Kuroda this series, but he hasn't gotten a whole lot of national coverage, so I'm curious what your impressions are so far. He's certainly gotten results--do you see that holding up as the league sees him for the second or third time?
A: League? Try, lineup. In Sunday's contest against Houston, he uncharacteristically carried a no-hitter into the seventh, but as Vin Scully mentioned in the TV broadcast, Kuroda tends to wilt the third time through the order. (Baseball-Reference doesn't show this data on his splits page, but you can get a feel for it by pitch count; after 75, his line goes ballistic to a slapped-silly .355/.412/.516.) Jon Weisman thought he was actually trying too hard, but it seems to me his stuff flattens out early. Fortunately, the Dodgers only need a third starter, or should; it's likely that with rotational ineffectiveness (Derek Lowe's groundballs haven't been coming as they used to, and Brad Penny's meatball catering service is giving the team fits), the team wiill have to bring up Clayton Kershaw earlier than they might like.
Q: Overall, the LA bullpen has been quite effective, but not in the way I would've expected. Beimel dominating while Broxton is scuffling? Fill us in on the pecking order behind Saito, and how you see this group performing over the course of the year.
A: Beimel wears the number 97, which tells you a little something about his psychology; he tends to blend into the background, but you're right that he appears to be dominating in the early season. Emphasis should be on appears, because in point of fact, he's second on the team for allowing inherited baserunners to score (so far, five have, one back of Scott Proctor's six), thus deflating his ERA while adversely affecting both the team and the pitcher(s) ahead of him. Broxton had the worst outing of his career on Sunday, giving up six runs while making only one out, but he'll revert to form; one of his hallmarks early on was his tendency to get in a funk and lose control on his fastball, and it looks like that's what happened.
The real question is what happens once Chan Ho Park turns back into the guy Texas knew and hated. By ERA, he's the third best pitcher on the team (2.16 in 25 IP), but there's no way he sustains that with his low strikeout rate. Scott Proctor is looking mighty like a midseason DFA or a slow regression to mopup duties, something that will be hard to accomplish given Torre's extended experience with him in New York. Most likely to replace him, and perhaps the biggest wild card currently on the 25-man, is Yhency Brazoban. The man with a name designed for Scrabble had a rough but scoreless go in the team's 7-1 Friday loss. He was all but unhittable for a couple months in 2004, but injuries sidetracked him. Even at league average, he could still be a useful part given the likelihood of both injury and ineffectiveness elsewhere in the pitching staff.
Thanks, Rob!
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Thursday's Plastic Cup
KL's on the road this morning, so it's up to me to deliver the sudsy goodness...in news form.
First, our regulars:
- Baseball-Reference box score
- FanGraphs WPA chart...which is depressing to look at.
- BP's postseason odds, which are a bit depressing to contemplate.
- BDD's daily recap, which at least lets us focus on other teams that sucked yesterday.
The big news in Brewers land is Derrick Turnbow asked him agent to talk to Melvin about his role. I wrote about it after the game last night, and there's quite the range of opinion about it so far in the comments.
It's April 17th, so full-season stats are fairly meaningless. Split stats always have sample-size issues. So what does the J-S do? Give us early-season split stats. Jason Kendall has the best home batting average in the National League. Let's pick up that option right now!
Speaking of splits, there's a new article at The Hardball Times about batting in front of the pitcher. You might recognize the author. I was interested in that in part because it seems like Counsell and JJ Hardy have had very different experiences in that spot. In addition to the article, which you should read, I was surprised to discover that last year, in 48 at-bats with the pitcher on deck, Hardy hit 404/425/537.
A few injury notes:
- Crazy Al Soriano is on the DL, and it sounds like he'll spend the 15-day minimum. Eric Patterson is called up in his place, and Matt Murton is now the assistant coach at Illinois Wesleyan.
- Reds prospect Jay Bruce "jammed his shoulder" and left last night's game, but it shouldn't keep him out for long.
- Nomar Garciaparra is back on the Dodgers active roster. Now Joe Torre can play both Nomar and Juan Pierre over more deserving youngsters!
- The Red Sox put Alex Cora on the DL, which normally wouldn't be newsworthy in these parts, but it almost--almost!--led to the callup of Keith Ginter. Joe Thurston got the nod instead.
Here's an interesting interview with Tim Marchman. Don't miss his comments on LaRussa.
Shea Hillenbrand's son was attacked by a lemur. At first it sounds like a joke, then it sounds like a tragedy, and then, thanks to this Baseball Think Factory thread, it turns back into a joke.
That'll do it for this morning. Don't go far...game time is 12:15 CT.
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