Another short one, but hey--you can get wasted once the game starts.

• BR Box Score of suck
• FanGraphs Win Probability chart of suck

Jim Powell interviewed first round pick Brett Lawrie.  You can listen here.

McCalvy reports that Branyan wants to cut down on his strikeouts .  To me, that sounds like Trey Parker and Matt Stone saying they want less profanity in South Park.  For the most part, this is a delayed version of the typical spring training narrative of why the player is going to be so much better this year.  Fortunately in this case, Branyan already does seem better.  He can say whatever he wants, and my bet is that he's going to keep K'ing every 3 or 4 ABs, and the home runs will be right there with them.

Colin Wyers (cwyers) at Goat Riders analyzes the Cubs defense.  A couple of non-surprises: Fukudome looks really good, and whether you'd like counting stats or rate stats, Pie has been better this year than Edmonds.

Why does Jay Bruce think he's off to such a hot start?  Sample size.  Really.

The college super-regionals are going on right now--eight three-game series will determine who gets in to the College World Series, which starts next Saturday.  Stanford clinched the first spot with a win over Fullerton last night, and there could be a lot more teams qualifying with wins today.  You can follow the action from one nifty application here.  That link also shows which games are televised, and on which ESPN channel.

Game time is 2:05 CT this afternoon.  The Brewers won't suck today.  I promise.

I don't think I've ever been this disappointed with a split of a road series.

Monday's Win Expectancy Graph
Monday's BR Box Score
Monday's BDD Recaps

Sunday's Win Expectancy Graph
Sunday's BR Box Score
Sunday's BDD Recaps

Saturday's Win Expectancy Graph
Saturday's BR Box Score
Saturday's BDD Recaps

Friday's Win Expectancy Graph
Friday's BR Box Score
Friday's BDD Recaps

Wow, after four days away, where do I even start? As reported in the fanposts, today the Brewers will announce they've signed Julian Tavarez. Also, while it won't be "announced," it will be strongly implied that the Brewer organization's desperation for reliable bullpen arms has reached a very dangerous stage.

Russell Branyan is back and sharing time at third with Bill Hall. Hall is unhappy, and understandably so, with the loss of playing time to the one guy in all of baseball who strikes out more than he does. Some guy named Eli completely destroyed his credibility by suggesting the Brewers may be ready to DFA Hall. Marty over at Fire Ned Yost is upset by the decision, and is now refusing to spend money on the team until Melvin is fired. Seriously? I was way more upset by the Tavarez move.

Jason Kendall batted eighth yesterday, in an attempt to "shake up the lineup." I know stat guys will say all lineup tinkering is relatively irrelevant, but this one seems especially small.

Remember that error thar J.J. Hardy committed on Friday? Apparently it attempted to destroy Washington.

Phil Rogers puts the Brewers at #22 in most recent power rankings, with the following comment:

In ESPN's most recent power rankings, the Brewers are also #22, with this comment:

It's close, but in this case I'm going to give the "one sentence or less analysis" challenge to Rogers, for actually analyzing something beyond home runs.

This makes his strategic decisions even more puzzling: Apparently Ned Yost has read The Book. I'm still going to guess he doesn't read blogs, but Mariners manager John McLaren does.

It's been five days, but I'm still confused and strangely fascinated by Babes Love Baseball's "sabermetric" analysis of Ryan Braun.

On injuries:

Rockies SS Clint Barmes is on the DL with a sprained MCL.
Fausto Carmona is out around 4 weeks with a strained hip.
Marlins OF Brett Carroll has a severely separated shoulder, partially torn ligaments and a swollen face. He'll be out a while.
Mets OF Ryan Church is still dizzy after getting his second concussion of the season last week.
Rockies OF Brad Hawpe is on the DL with a sore hamstring.
Felix Hernandez missed his start Saturday with soreness in his leg.
Matt Holliday was placed on the DL, also with a sore hamstring.
Andruw Jones will have the surgery he's been delaying on his knee and miss 4-6 weeks.
Padres P Chris Young, who suffered a broken nose via line drive, has other fractures in his face as well and will not be allowed to resume baseball activities for at least 2 weeks.

How do you react when your team is severely underperforming and is consistently painful to watch? Ichiro says you should try a beer from Papua New Guinea. U.S.S. Mariner is on the case.

When you find yourself complaining about the tough start Rickie Weeks is having, consider Reds leadoff hitter Corey Patterson, and his wafer-thin .242 OBP. In a move that has to be at least partially related, Jay Bruce will debut Tuesday.

On the flip side, Lyle Overbay set a Jays franchise record by reaching base in 12 straight plate appearances.

Oh, and Jamie Moyer has finally proven that all 30 MLB teams are capable of swinging and missing at 60 MPH pitches.

Drink up.

Yes, I know, this is the *second* Reds-Brewers series of the year.  But better late than never.  To acquaint us with the Cincinnatians from a bleeding-Reds-red perspective, our guest is Amanda, a.k.a. Red Hot Mama.  RHM may be the only baseball blog with a category called For the Ladies. 

Anyway, here's what Amanda had to say.

The toothpick has landed.  What are your early impressions of Dusty Baker?

My distaste for Dusty Baker has two dimensions.
 
First, there's the fact that the Reds promised a full-fledged manager search and then proceeded to hire the first guy with major league experience who walked through the door, even though they'd just witnessed first hand the travesty that was his tenure at Chicago. This isn't exactly Dusty's fault, unless his charm and charisma are literally impossible to resist. In which case, well, that's just different then.
 
Second, there's the fact that he over-loves the veterans, thinks OBP is overrated, and fails to set his team up to win. He sends Edwin Encarnacion up to bunt. He leads off with Corey Patterson. He fails to ever get ejected from games. It's just not right.
 
On the positive side, I did see him wearing a cowl during spring training games, which is a bold fashion move. You've got to admire that.

Somehow, the Brewers came away from Johnny Cueto's second start with a win, but that doesn't mean we in Brewers Nation weren't impressed.  He's almost freakishly good for a rookie, especially one who hasn't gotten the press of a Hughes or a Gallardo.  Is there anything that could stop this guy?

Can't talk about it. Don't want to jinx it.
 
Speaking of prospects, Joey Votto is getting a shot, while Jay Bruce is stuck in Triple-A.  Does that concern you?  Do you see Bruce making an impact this year, or will Dusty stick with his veterans?

Votto is almost 25 while Bruce just turned 21. Bruce also started last season in A ball and only ended the season with the AAA Bats because injuries had decimated their outfield. That being said, he still hit at every level, and I imagine we'll see him sooner than later. Especially with Edwin Encarnacion struggling to start the season (and being everyone's favorite whipping boy for the team), a 25-man roster spot may be available before September, but I wouldn't be particularly dismayed not to see him until then.
 
The bullpen was not exactly a strong point for the Reds last year, and you've at least partially addressed that problem by signing Francisco Cordero.  (Thanks!  We didn't *really* want to promise him fifty million bucks.)  Do you the current group is good enough to be the bullpen of a contending team?

Probably not.  Jeremy Affeldt and Jared Burton have been OK. and Cordero's been pretty good. Mike  Lincoln's numbers have been OK, but in my imagination he's always getting smacked around. I must have seen him get tagged a lot at some pivotal moment in my brain growth so it's really stuck with me.

Todd Coffey is the team Trekkie, devoted Jell-o lover , and the man who introduced Cincinnati to the banana and mayonnaise sandwich. You want him to do well, but he just doesn't.

Kent Mercker  is a smart, funny guy, and it's sort of amazing that he came back into baseball at age 40 after taking last year off. Even though he's well rested, though, in his LOOGY role his not so much an impact player.  And it seems like David Weathers has been surprising people with his quality at his age for three years. I'm not sure how long it can last.
 
As the fan of a division rival, I was sorry to see Adam Dunn's option picked up; as a fan of rational thinking, I was relieved.  Do the Reds have a chance of keeping him around?  Do they even want to?  If the team sputters in the early going, is there a chance he could be flipped at the deadline?

Trade rumors about Adam Dunn swirl constantly. When the team makes any comment about it at all, it's to talk about how important he is to the Reds organization and how they plan to have him around for the long-term. I think that the Reds would make a deal for him if the right incentive were offered, but I doubt that anyone would be willing to part with as much as it would take to get Dunner.
 
As for Dunn's willingness to stay in Cincinnati if it were up to him, I bet he is. Unless, of course, that organization who owns his heart were to come around with an offer. That organization being "any football team."

Thanks Amanda!

KL's on the road this morning, so it's up to me to deliver the sudsy goodness...in news form.

First, our regulars:

• Baseball-Reference box score
  
• FanGraphs WPA chart...which is depressing to look at.
• BP's postseason odds, which are a bit depressing to contemplate.
• BDD's daily recap, which at least lets us focus on other teams that sucked yesterday.

The big news in Brewers land is Derrick Turnbow asked him agent to talk to Melvin about his role.  I wrote about it after the game last night, and there's quite the range of opinion about it so far in the comments.

It's April 17th, so full-season stats are fairly meaningless.  Split stats always have sample-size issues.  So what does the J-S do?  Give us early-season split stats.  Jason Kendall has the best home batting average in the National League.  Let's pick up that option right now!

Speaking of splits, there's a new article at The Hardball Times about batting in front of the pitcher.  You might recognize the author.  I was interested in that in part because it seems like Counsell and JJ Hardy have had very different experiences in that spot.  In addition to the article, which you should read, I was surprised to discover that last year, in 48 at-bats with the pitcher on deck, Hardy hit 404/425/537.

A few injury notes:

• Crazy Al Soriano is on the DL, and it sounds like he'll spend the 15-day minimum.  Eric Patterson is called up in his place, and Matt Murton is now the assistant coach at Illinois Wesleyan.
• Reds prospect Jay Bruce "jammed his shoulder" and left last night's game, but it shouldn't keep him out for long.
• Nomar Garciaparra is back on the Dodgers active roster.  Now Joe Torre can play both Nomar and Juan Pierre over more deserving youngsters!
• The Red Sox put Alex Cora on the DL, which normally wouldn't be newsworthy in these parts, but it almost--almost!--led to the callup of Keith Ginter.  Joe Thurston got the nod instead.

Here's an interesting interview with Tim Marchman.  Don't miss his comments on LaRussa.

Shea Hillenbrand's son was attacked by a lemur.  At first it sounds like a joke, then it sounds like a tragedy, and then, thanks to this Baseball Think Factory thread, it turns back into a joke.

That'll do it for this morning.  Don't go far...game time is 12:15 CT.