Friday's Frosty Mug
Here are some things to read while waiting for Monday's Mug.
So you may have heard that Ken Macha is the new manager of the Milwaukee Brewers. Reaction from around the web:
- In-Between Hops has some stats showing Macha's tendencies. The Cliff's Notes version: don't expect a lot of base stealing, pinch hitting or sac bunts. I'm ok with most of that. My question, though, is whether those stats are a function of Macha's management style or the environment in which he worked in Oakland.
- Two-Fisted Slopper also uses the numbers to develop an expectation of what's to come.
- The JS Blog has audio from the press conference.
- If you like knowing what was said at press conferences but don't actually like to listen to things, Al also chronicled it for you.
- Ken Rosenthal notes some problems Macha had with his veteran players in Oakland. The Brewers downplay it in this link.
- View From Bernie's Chalet likes the contrast between Macha and Ned Yost.
- The Brew Town Beat likes the move as well, but raises some questions about Macha's relationships and his aversion to small ball.
So now, the next question: what about Mike Maddux? Baseball Musings is reporting that Mike Maddux and Rick Peterson are both considering the jobs in Milwaukee and Texas, and the only question is who ends up where.
We're probably going to hear a bunch of stories like this for a while: "So, now that the Mariners have a GM that used to work for the Brewers, does that mean they'll trade for (Brewer)?" Today's name in the blank is J.J. Hardy. I'm not sure the Mariners could offer anything in return that would be interesting enough for me to be happy about the trade.
Of course, there is still a hole at third base. Beyond the Box Score says Russell Branyan was the 20th best third baseman in 2008, generating 11 runs with his bat and saving 2 in the field. Bill Hall doesn't crack the top 25.
Eric Seidman of FanGraphs has been compiling a list of his favorite highlights from this season. His #1 highlight is CC Sabathia. I think an awful lot of us agree.
Sabathia was not one of the five Brewers who filed for free agency yesterday, on the first day of fifteen when it's allowed. I've always felt like filing that early creates the feeling that you can't wait to run out the door. If you haven't read it yet, the five Brewers who did file yesterday were Eric Gagne, Gabe Kapler, Mike Lamb, Ben Sheets and Brian Shouse. Here are some other players that filed for free agency yesterday:
Angels: Mark Teixiera, Garret Anderson, Jon Garland
Braves: Will Ohman, Greg Norton, Julian Tavarez
Cardinals: Braden Looper, Cesar Izturis, Felipe Lopez, Jason LaRue, Ron Villone, Russ Springer
Dodgers: Manny Ramirez, Joe Beimel, Casey Blake, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux
Marlins: Paul Lo Duca
Mets: Oliver Perez, Damion Easley, Matt Wise
Nationals: Chad Cordero, Ryan Wagner, Pete Orr
Padres: Trevor Hoffman
Reds: Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln
Twins: Eddie Guardado, Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes
UPDATE: Cubs Ryan Dempster, Jim Edmonds, Chad Fox and Bob Howry filed too.
Also, the White Sox declined Ken Griffey's option and the Tigers declined theirs on Edgar Renteria, so they're free agents too.
One trade has already been made: the Royals acquired 1B Mike Jacobs from the Marlins for RP Leo Nunez. Jacobs has above average power but a sub-.300 OBP.
Finally, how many players that can't handle the glove are in the Brewers' farm system? TheJay noted today that Brendan Katin posted a .926 fielding percentage in AAA this season, in the outfield. How is that possible?
Drink up.
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Wednesday's Frosty Mug
Here are a handful of things to read if you're bored with critiquing playoff commercials.
In Arizona: Alexandre Periard was the only Brewer prospect to appear, pitching an inning of scoreless relief with a hit, a walk and a K as the Javelinas fell for the fourth straight day, 5-4 to Phoenix. Box Score
The Javelinas play Mesa today at 2:35. Lou Palmisano is still on loan to the Solar Sox, so it's possible both Angel Salome and Lou Palmisano could both play today. Also, Jeremy Jeffress last pitched on the 9th, so today could be his day.
If you need something to read between now and then, here's the latest installment in Taylor Green's blog from the AFL.
In Hawaii: The CaneFires were rained out yesterday. They play Honolulu at 8 pm Central tonight.
In Mexico: Chris Narveson made his debut and pitched 4.2 innings, giving up 3 runs (2 earned) on 6 hits and striking out 8 in Hermosillo's 7-4 loss to Guasave. On the other side, Erasmo Ramirez pitched 2/3 of an inning for Guasave, gave up two hits and was credited with a blown save. Box Score
Almost all the Brewer news today is prospect related:
- Tom H. notes (and republishes) a profile on Jeremy Jeffress in Baseball America.
- The Hardball Times analyzes the delivery of Brewer 2008 2nd round pick Seth Lintz.
- Baseball America ranks teams by their 2008 draft expenditures. The Brewers spent a shade under $8.4 million, the sixth most in all of baseball. They also had a lot of early picks.
In other news, if you were still thinking about getting a general admission ticket for the Brewers Winter Warm Up event in January (as I was), you waited too long. Tickets are still available if you want to shell out $500 for a VIP pass, though.
So apparently Jake Peavy has released a list of cities where he'd be willing to play in 2009. He's only interested in playing in the NL, and only for teams with a solid tradition of winning. The places he's reportedly willing to go are Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles and St. Louis. I guess the "solid tradition of winning" part wasn't as important as they made it seem.
Also, we have a new medical procedure of the moment: nerve relocation surgery. Albert Pujols had it this week, and at least six other current and former big leaguers have had it since 2002, with at least a handful of others considering it this offseason. Click the link for a full description (with pictures) of the problem and the solution.
Ken Griffey Jr. is old school, though, so he's sticking with the tried-and-true method and having knee surgery instead. This would seem to raise the possibility that the White Sox will decline his option for 2009, creating the possibility that the Mariners could have both the return of Ken Griffey and MLB's first female GM in 2009. That's about as much positive publicity as you can get during the offseason without actually improving your odds of winning.
The Nationals had a problem this season that might seem familiar. Their position players seemed to constantly come down with injuries that were deemed "day-to-day" before being rediagnosed as something more serious. Yesterday, their medical director resigned. There's likely an opening on the Brewers' staff for him.
We're less than two months away from the Rule 5 Draft, scheduled for December 11 at the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas. Baseball Analysts has a review of the Draft in 2007-Play in 2008 draft. Still wondering if anyone has a list of Brewer players who will be eligible.
Oh, and the Rays have proven once and for all that long ball is better than small ball.
Drink up.
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Wednesday's Frosty Mug
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
Ok, let's start with the positive from last night: Manny Parra picked up a couple of doubles, meaning he's only a little more than 500 hits away from the all-time pitcher record.
Ok, done being positive. Brewed Sports noted that Eric Gagne has the highest HR/9 of any major league pitcher that hasn't been released. So why is he still pitching in high leverage, or really any, situation? The Official Site says
Jayson Stark listed CC Sabathia as a top-three candidate for NL Cy Young, but decided Tim Lincecum deserves it more. Via The Hardball Times, I found Tim Marchman of the NY Sun, who argues that the sleeper candidate may be Ryan Dempster. That's probably a reach.
Others are still weighing in on Sabathia's near no-hitter. Hal McCoy thinks it was a hit. UmpBump doesn't like Doug Melvin's idea for a new official scoring system.
Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn...and Ray Durham? MLB Trade Rumors has a list of top upcoming free agents sorted by OBP. Ray Durham makes the top ten.
On injuries:
White Sox 3B Joe Crede left last night's game after 5 innings with tightness in his back.
Nats C Jesus Flores left last night's game on a stretcher, but preliminary reports say it was just an ankle sprain.
Ken Griffey missed his second straight game with a sore back.
Cards OF Joe Mather is done for the year with a broken hand.
White Sox OF Carlos Quentin was scratched from last night's game with forearm soreness.
Rangers C Jarrod Saltalamacchia is done for the year with a strained muscle in his forearm.
Carlos Zambrano left last night's game after five innings with arm trouble. He'll be re-examined today.
We're getting close to the window for teams to negotiate with potential minor league affiliates, and two stories today imply their could be some significant movement in AAA: The Indians are leaving Buffalo and will likely sign a deal with Columbus. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are reportedly moving from Las Vegas to Albuquerque.
Drink up.
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Wednesday's Frosty Mug
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
After the game, Astros beat writer Brian McTaggart had this to say:
Brewer management is still playing defense after leaving CC Sabathia in to throw 130 pitches Monday. Ned says it's ok because Sabathia only averages 13.7 pitches per inning. That's a "math is still on our side" moment if I've ever seen one. Ken Rosenthal got some similar quotes from Doug Melvin.
Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron compares Sabathia to the greatest mid-season pitching acquisitions of all time. Dugout Central and Rob Neyer both make a case for him to win NL MVP.
Corey Hart needs to hit one home run to be the first Brewer ever to finish with 20 HR and 20 steals more than once. Does it surprise anyone else that it's never happened twice? It surprised me.
Between this catch last night and this one Saturday, Gabe Kapler is giving me a reason to scroll through the Yahoo photos that doesn't involve searching for untucked shirts.
Ben Sheets ERA for August is up over 4. In-Between Hops notes that Sheets had a similar stretch in 2004, and it's probably nothing to worry about.
Power Rankings, quickly:
Whatifsports: Second, behind the Cubs.
Bugs and Cranks: Seventh.
Whisnant Rankings: Ninth.
Between the Green Pillars has made a list of four things to watch for the Brewers down the stretch. Let me summarize them for you:
1. Health
2. Health
3. Bullpen
4. Someone needs to get hot.
Tomorrow, we apply these needs to every other playoff team.
On injuries:
Josh Beckett's next start has been pushed back 3 days while doctors try to find the source of numbness in his pitching hand.
Braves IF Ruben Gotay has been placed on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Jason Isringhausen is likely out for the season with elbow tendinitis and a partially torn tendon.
O's closer George Sherrill is on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
Billy Wagner's elbow isn't getting any better and he's likely done for the year.
So, let's say for a moment you're a Reds fan. You signed Francisco Cordero before the season, hired Dusty Baker to manage and showed all the signs of "going for it." Then, you underperformed, cleaned house in the front office, traded away Ken Griffey and Adam Dunn, and now it doesn't look like you'll be any better in 2009. Is one letter to season ticket holders really going to make you feel better? Me either.
Oh, and the Cardinals season really must be over, because Cardinals Diaspora is talking about The Hills. Seriously.
Drink up.
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Monday's Frosty Mug
Now I know why they call them the Dog Days of Summer. Yesterday: 95 degrees, heat index over 110. Today's forecast: 96, heat index over 110. If it stays like this I might die, but Gorman can't wait to go outside and lay in the driveway. (UPDATE: New pics of Gorman are up.)
Oh yeah, and the Brewers took 2 of 3 on the road.
Friday's Win Expectancy Graph
Friday's BR Box Score
Saturday's Win Expectancy Graph
Saturday's BR Box Score
Sunday's Win Expectancy Graph
Sunday's BR Box Score
Well, the road winning streak is over, stopped at 9 games, but Jim Powell notes that if not for the 9th inning collapse in Arizona a month ago, it would've been a franchise record 12 games coming into yesterday. You can also click that link for his thoughts on Rickie Weeks, Brett Favre and...Roger Federer? Really?
The Junkball Blues takes a look at Prince Fielder, and his climb back from disappointing to stellar in 2008.
Seamheads puts the Brewers at 20-1 odds to win the NL Central. BP Postseason Odds have the Brewers at 13.3%, which is slightly less than 3-in-20, so I guess that's close to fair. Spitting Seeds predicts the three NL division leaders will win their divisions and the Wild Card leader will win the Wild Card. Gutsy.
Phil Rogers ranks the Brewers 9th in his most recent power rankings, but that's actually 8th if you only count MLB teams. The Whisnant rankings at Dugout Central have been revamped and now list the Brewers 10th.
Dayn Perry says the Wild Card is hurting, not helping, baseball in 2008. One could say the same thing about Dayn Perry.
Jon Heyman lists the Brewers among the trade deadline winners. They must have won pretty big, because before the Sabathia trade Heyman hardly noticed their existence.
On injuries:
Mets OF Marlon Anderson has been placed on the DL with a hamstring strain.
A's RP Andrew Brown has been placed on the DL with biceps tendinitis.
Cards OF Chris Duncan will miss the rest of the season following surgery to replace a disc in his neck.
Nomar Garciaparra has been placed on the DL with a strained roster spot.
Ken Griffey, Jr. left Saturday's game with "heat-related cramping."
Royals 2B Mark Grudzielanek left Friday's game after colliding with 1B Russ Gload.
Reds IF/OF Jerry Hairston, Jr. will miss a couple of days at the very least with a sore hamstring.
Orlando Hernandez still needs a special shoe to throw the banana.
Mets SP John Maine won't be able to pitch through a strained rotator cuff after all. He's on the DL.
Phillies RP Rudy Seanez has been placed on the DL with shoulder and back soreness.
Braves RP Rafael Soriano has been placed on the DL for the third time in 2008 with elbow inflammation.
The first trade deadline has come and passed, of course, but trades are still available for those willing to wander through the obscure and byzantine procedures of post-deadline waiver trading. MLB Trade Rumors has a nice roundup of posts explaining the rules.
I'm a little disappointed in myself today. I just realized that Khalil Greene injured himself punching a storage chest and I completely failed to mention that he'd been attacked by THE SPAZZOSAURUS!
Drink up. Drink two, in fact. It's hot out there.
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Friday's Frosty Mug
It's not too late to jump on the Cubs bandwagon. We have plenty of room.
BR Box Score
The View From the Bleachers has made a list of 9 reasons it sucks to be a Brewer fan. Apparently coming up with a tenth was too much work. I usually try not to troll, but I felt compelled to remind them that being a Cubs fan isn't exactly 100 years of sunshine either.
With that said, after five straight losses to drop from tied to five back, I do feel like I can relate to some of these pictures. XKCD also has a pretty good metaphor for the situation.
In-Between Hops and The Brew Town Beat want me to come down off the ledge. I will, but can I leave Ned up there? Via FNY, I found this list of 10 stupid things Ned has said in the last 4 days.
This did help to cheer me up, though: a Big League Stew interview with CC Sabathia that's almost too funny to be true.
Beyond the Box Score says the Brewers were winners at the trading deadline. That gives us exactly 2 wins in the last 7 days.
Only a couple of injuries today:
Khalil Greene broke his left hand on a storage chest last night. Was he frustrated over his current play or remaining a Padre? We may never know.
Tigers P Todd Jones has been placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
You've probably heard endlessly about the Manny Ramirez deal. You've probably heard about Ken Griffey, Jr. going to the White Sox as well. Even if you have, Hal McCoy's interview with Ken Griffey, Sr. covers some things you might not know about Griffey's time in Cincinnati.
Some other transactions you might not have heard about: the Twins are expected to DFA Livan Hernandez today. And the Nationals released Johnny Estrada, Paul Lo Duca and Felipe Lopez in the same day.
Home Run Derby has a story today on obstructed view seats, which come with the added advantage of giving you something to bang your head against when your team drops 5 straight games at home.
People don't usually complain when Erin Andrews obstructs their view, but Mike Nadel is making an exception. The piece goes on and on about her outfit but doesn't include a picture. Thanks to Deadspin for filling that gap.
Oh, and Garfield Minus Garfield is becoming a book.
Drink up.
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Thursday's Frosty Mug
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
So, while I attempt to recover from my short night of sleep, the trade deadline is about 6 hours away. The Official Website says the Brewers are done making moves, but here are some other moves that have been made, should be made or could be made:
DONE:
The Yankees sent LaTroy Hawkins to the Astros for a low-level prospect.
The Tigers traded Ivan Rodriguez to the Yankees for Kyle Farnsworth.
"DONE," BUT NOT CONFIRMED:
The Reds traded Ken Griffer, Jr. to the White Sox for an undisclosed return.
The Red Sox send Manny Ramirez to Florida in a three-team deal involving the Pirates and Jason Bay.
OTHER RUMORS:
The Cubs are unwilling to give up Felix Pie to get Raul Ibanez.
The Twins may be willing to give up Boof Bonser to get Rich Aurilia from the Giants.
The Marlins may send 1B Mike Jacobs to the Giants for Bengie Molina.
The Rays are working on a deal for Adam Dunn.
Ok, with that out of the way, what else is out there?
Yovani Gallardo's rehab is going well and he's still hoping to start games in September.
Right Field Bleachers compares 2008 Mike Cameron to 2005 Geoff Jenkins, who produced similarly before finishing the season smoking hot. Cameron, of course, has 25 fewer games to work with, but I'd be ok with it if he finished the season with Jenkins' 2005 numbers.
The most recent Bugs and Cranks and Riding the Pine power rankings have the Brewers 7th.
On injuries:
Tim Hudson will likely need Tommy John surgery and will be out until around this time in 2009.
Rangers SP Eric Hurley was removed from yesterday's start after 2 innings and will miss his next start with biceps tendinitis.
Tigers RP Todd Jones "felt something" while pitching Wednesday. That's specific.
Scott Rolen's surgically repaired shoulder is bothering him again. He missed yesterday's game.
Kerry Wood missed his scheduled simulated game yesterday with the blister that never ends.
That's all for today. Drink up.
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Tuesday's Plastic Cup
As regular readers know, KL would occasionally mention the large number of blogs he reads every day to provide the Frosty Mug. A while back, he sent me the list so I could import it into Google Reader, and let me tell you, it is a LOT of blogs. Since this time yesterday, there were about 450 new posts to read skim mostly ignore.
No game last night, of course, and not really much going on in Brewers news. Weeks is on the DL, Iribarren is called up. Brewers scouts were at an Orioles game (which could have something to do with our series against the Orioles next weekend), Doug says he's not interested in Brian Roberts, but then again, this is all via Tom H, who the front office may or may not be toying with.
Adam McCalvy has a new mailbag up. The JS guys do too, but the JS site is down right now, so I'm not going to link to it. Another JS article that is currently unavailable: Mike Cameron doesn't like being on the bench.
In-Between Hops thinks Carlos Villanueva should get a look as closer. Personally, I'm happy sticking with Torres for a while, and as long as Torres holds up, Villa can be a two-inning guy when needed.
Right Field Bleachers interviewed supplemental pick Evan Frederickson. Later today, battlekow will post his interview with Frederickson. Also, if you haven't been here in a couple of days, scroll down for another Evan interview--this one with Evan Bronson, a lower-round pick.
More obscure draft/minor leaguer news: The Brewers signed Brandon Drespling, an outfielder from Westminster College in Pennsylvania. (Yes, that's WAY off the beaten scouting path.) Follow the link for his stats and splits. I hope his first hitting coach mentions that it's ok not to swing now and then.
The big baseball news yesterday was Ken Griffey Jr.'s home run #600. Roch Kubatko leads his article with an even more incredible occurrence:
Paul Bako had the first multi-homer game of his career.
Joe Posnanski takes the milestone seriously and, as usual, turns in a great piece.
Pitcher fatigue is in the air. In addition to Josh's great diary outlining how Brewers starters tire (or not), check out his article at The Hardball Times. It includes Sheets, and has the interesting note that a change in fastball movement might be a better indicator of fatigue than a decrease in velocity.
Pizza Cutter also looks at pitcher fatigue, through more traditional means. A finding that might bring a Brewers starter or two to mind:
Does fatigue affect DIPS? For a long time, it’s been assumed that balls in play went for hits at a rate that had more to do with the defense than the pitcher. That’s been based mostly on season-to-season intercorrelations. But, what about within a game? The answer is… yes, there is an effect. At lower pitch counts, a ball in play is less likely to be a hit, again, controlling for batter/pitcher rates. Additionally, there’s an effect for number of times through the lineup (already controlling for the fact that there will be a pitch count effect.) So, we would expect that starters who are efficient with their pitch count to have a lower BABIP overall.
That'll do it for today. Check back this afternoon for the Frederickson interview, and drop in tonight for the 7:05 start in Houston.
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Wednesday's Frosty Mug
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 85.2 wins and a 22.9% shot at the Central.
Today's interesting side note from BP Odds: A month into the season, BP has the Rays as the most likely playoff team from the AL East, at 42%. The Yankees and Red Sox are both down in the 30's.
Of course, last night's win was largely sparked by the return of Mike Cameron. The JS Blog has quotes from him afterwards.
After the game, Sheets also reported no pain, so hopefully last night was just a rough first day back and he'll be back to normal for the next one.
I have yet to see or hear a report on the condition of umpire Jerry Crawford, who left last night's game early. Most media outlets are just saying he wasn't feeling well, but Baseball Musings says he was complaining of chest pains.
There's no respectful way to transition from a story about chest pain to a story about Derrick Turnbow. There just isn't.
The Brewers are #12 in the latest Bugs and Cranks Power Rankings.
On Injuries:
Nats closer Chad Cordero is headed to the DL with a strained muscle in his shoulder.
Alex Rodriguez's quad injury finally landed him on the DL.
John Smoltz, currently on the DL, is contemplating making the unprecedented move from starter to closer to starter and back to the bullpen again.
If you go out for a walk today, try not to trip over a former Brewer looking for work: Chad Moeller, recently DFA'd by the Yankees, could join Raul Casanova on the Mets. The Orioles DFA'd Greg Aquino yesterday. And Ray King refused to report to AAA and has been released.
It's an annual ritual of spring: Ken Rosenthal seems to think Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey could be on the move soon. I'd be more likely to believe it if we didn't have this conversation every spring, and if the Reds hadn't just signed Cordero and Dusty Baker to win now. But, just like Bronson Arroyo, trade rumors swim in circles.
That's all I've got for today. As always, feel free to leave a comment if you have something to include in a future Mug. Drink up.
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