Some days witty opening lines just don't write themselves. The Brewers were off yesterday, but there were 10 other MLB games, and you can see their Win Expectancy Graphs here.

The Brewers start a quick 2-game series with the Cardinals tonight, the two teams' last scheduled meeting in 2008. So what are our expectations? Tom H. says a split is good enough. Screw that. The Brewers can't bury the Cardinals this week, but going into Thursday's off day 5.5 games up would feel a lot better than 3.5.

MLB Fanhouse notes that the Cardinals still play several contending teams down the stretch, while the Brewers have 2 series each against the Reds and Pirates.

Adam McCalvy over at The Official Site has a mailbag up, and the first question is about Jason Kendall wearing down. Yes, it is a slow news day.

So the Brewers have sold out 21 straight games, and will likely (if they haven't already) sell out both games in the Cardinals series (or at least they would have, if the series was in Milwaukee. Oops). So what exactly is a sellout? Don Walker says the Brewers call a game a sellout if only individual tickets are available. I'm not sure where I got the impression that "sold out" meant no more tickets are available. Why would the Brewers want to advertise that all of their games are sold out if there are individual tickets left?

Today's Sabathia rumor comes from Jon Heyman, who heard from an unnamed source that Sabathia would prefer to play for the Giants. El Lefty Malo sees it as unlikely. Is playing close to home so important to CC that he'd spend the next 2-3 years playing on terrible rebuilding teams? Even with Sabathia and Lincecum, does anyone think the Giants would contend anytime before 2011?

Jayson Stark dropped the ball. Even with CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets and a choice between Parra, Bush or Suppan, he doesn't think the Brewers rank within the top five postseason rotations.

Maybe starting pitching is overrated. Recondite Baseball discovered that two former Brewers are among the pitchers with the worst game score ever to record a win.

The latest WhatIfSports Power Rankings have the Brewers 3rd, behind the Cubs and Rays. The Whisnant Rankings have them 9th.

I'm not usually one to self-promote, but again, slow news day: I'm enjoying the debate in this FanPost about how to select an MVP and Ryan Braun's qualifications.

Only two injuries to report:

Johnny Cueto is only expected to miss one start with his recent elbow trouble.
Carlos Guillen left last night's game with lower back spasms and is day to day.

I'm sure the Pirates thought only scoring 3 runs on 16 hits Sunday was bad, but the Dodgers now have a feat to compare: Last night they became just the 13th team ever to collect 13 hits without scoring any runs. So now the 2008 Dodgers have won a game where they didn't pick up a single hit, and been shut out on 13 hits.

In the meantime, their manager is blogging about carrying around tiny dogs.

Drink up.

How quickly fortunes change: one season and now Pirate fans are wondering why they can't win in Milwaukee.

Sunday's Win Expectancy Graph
Sunday's BR Box Score

Saturday's Win Expectancy Graph
Saturday's BR Box Score

Friday's Win Expectancy Graph
Friday's BR Box Score

Obligatory photgraphic evidence of the world's most hyperbolic crime against humanity: the untucking of shirts.

So, how about Guillermo Mota as an unlikely hero? I'll admit I wasn't too excited when he was called into yesterday's game, but after the game even Tom H. gave him the credit he deserves.

Lost in everything else that happened yesterday: CC Sabathia was pulled after 6 innings, possibly because of the media uproar that occurred after his 130 pitch outing last week. In fact, 6-4-2 and the LA Times are still talking about Sabathia's likely free agent destinations and how his future performance might be affected by this season.

In other pitching news, The Junkball Blues is concerned about the inconsistency and workload of Manny Parra. He's already thrown 7 more innings in 2008 than he did in all of 2007, and still has a month to go in the starting rotation.

As noted in the Fanshots, Mat Gamel will spend the last week of the minor league season in Nashville as a tryout for a potential September callup. I'm curious: what kind of production do people expect from him in the big leagues at this point, as a guy who's spent one week above AA? Let me know in the comments.

As you may know, Baseball Tonight is conducting a series this season featuring the best player in the history of each franchise. Via Batter's Box Interactive, I discovered that ESPN.com's Page 2 is featuring the worst 3 players in each franchise's history. The NL is featured here, and the AL here. Feel free to check my math if you want, but I spotted 13 former Brewers on the list, including Hideo Nomo's appearance on the list for two different teams.

The Brewers rank 6th in Phil Rogers' most recent power rankings.

On injuries:

Josh Beckett still has numbness in his hand and his scheduled start has been pushed back once again, to Friday this time.
Johnny Cueto left yesterday's game after just 3 innings with a sore triceps tendon, and will get an MRI today.
J.D. Drew has a herniated disc in his back but is trying to avoid the DL.
Royals 3B Alex Gordon is on the DL with a torn muscle in his leg.
Orlando Hernandez will be out for at least a year following surgery on his big toe and may never throw the banana again.
Royals SP Luke Hochevar is done for the season with a bruised rib cage.
Rangers SP Eric Hurley is being shut down for the season with shoulder inflammation.
Geoff Jenkins strained his hip running out an infield single and has been placed on the DL.
Royals RP Ron Mahay has been placed on the DL with a sore left foot.
Mets SP John Maine may be shut down for the rest of the season with a bone spur in his shoulder.
Blue Jays OF Brad Wilkerson has been placed on the DL with convenient timing back spasms.

Remember when this was the most prominent event in Brewer second-half baseball? With a loss and an Angels win today, the Mariners could be the first team eliminated from playoff contention. If they don't do it today, the Nationals could sneak up on them and do it tomorrow.

Everyone has a bad day sometimes, and equipment guys are no exception: Twins SS Adam Everett had to change jerseys mid-game Friday to ensure he was wearing the proper spelling of Minnesota.

Oh, and this 1970's era Brewers commercial is...well, it's everything you'd expect it to be.

Drink up.

Jeff Suppan goes up against Johnny Cueto.  Perhaps you've heard of this Cueto fellow?  He's pretty good, though his lifetime winning percentage against the Brewers is .000.  We'll be looking for more than five innings from Suppan, because I don't think Melvin will let Yost have more than 13 pitchers.  (Please?!)

Here's your Baseball-Reference game preview.  When you see the lineups, feel free to post them in the comments.  I predict that someone with a low on-base percentage will lead off for the Reds.

Project-a-tron says:

• Brewers 5.5
• Reds 5.1
• Brewers WinExp: 49%

Let's go Crew!

Yes, I know, this is the *second* Reds-Brewers series of the year.  But better late than never.  To acquaint us with the Cincinnatians from a bleeding-Reds-red perspective, our guest is Amanda, a.k.a. Red Hot Mama.  RHM may be the only baseball blog with a category called For the Ladies. 

Anyway, here's what Amanda had to say.

The toothpick has landed.  What are your early impressions of Dusty Baker?

My distaste for Dusty Baker has two dimensions.
 
First, there's the fact that the Reds promised a full-fledged manager search and then proceeded to hire the first guy with major league experience who walked through the door, even though they'd just witnessed first hand the travesty that was his tenure at Chicago. This isn't exactly Dusty's fault, unless his charm and charisma are literally impossible to resist. In which case, well, that's just different then.
 
Second, there's the fact that he over-loves the veterans, thinks OBP is overrated, and fails to set his team up to win. He sends Edwin Encarnacion up to bunt. He leads off with Corey Patterson. He fails to ever get ejected from games. It's just not right.
 
On the positive side, I did see him wearing a cowl during spring training games, which is a bold fashion move. You've got to admire that.

Somehow, the Brewers came away from Johnny Cueto's second start with a win, but that doesn't mean we in Brewers Nation weren't impressed.  He's almost freakishly good for a rookie, especially one who hasn't gotten the press of a Hughes or a Gallardo.  Is there anything that could stop this guy?

Can't talk about it. Don't want to jinx it.
 
Speaking of prospects, Joey Votto is getting a shot, while Jay Bruce is stuck in Triple-A.  Does that concern you?  Do you see Bruce making an impact this year, or will Dusty stick with his veterans?

Votto is almost 25 while Bruce just turned 21. Bruce also started last season in A ball and only ended the season with the AAA Bats because injuries had decimated their outfield. That being said, he still hit at every level, and I imagine we'll see him sooner than later. Especially with Edwin Encarnacion struggling to start the season (and being everyone's favorite whipping boy for the team), a 25-man roster spot may be available before September, but I wouldn't be particularly dismayed not to see him until then.
 
The bullpen was not exactly a strong point for the Reds last year, and you've at least partially addressed that problem by signing Francisco Cordero.  (Thanks!  We didn't *really* want to promise him fifty million bucks.)  Do you the current group is good enough to be the bullpen of a contending team?

Probably not.  Jeremy Affeldt and Jared Burton have been OK. and Cordero's been pretty good. Mike  Lincoln's numbers have been OK, but in my imagination he's always getting smacked around. I must have seen him get tagged a lot at some pivotal moment in my brain growth so it's really stuck with me.

Todd Coffey is the team Trekkie, devoted Jell-o lover , and the man who introduced Cincinnati to the banana and mayonnaise sandwich. You want him to do well, but he just doesn't.

Kent Mercker  is a smart, funny guy, and it's sort of amazing that he came back into baseball at age 40 after taking last year off. Even though he's well rested, though, in his LOOGY role his not so much an impact player.  And it seems like David Weathers has been surprising people with his quality at his age for three years. I'm not sure how long it can last.
 
As the fan of a division rival, I was sorry to see Adam Dunn's option picked up; as a fan of rational thinking, I was relieved.  Do the Reds have a chance of keeping him around?  Do they even want to?  If the team sputters in the early going, is there a chance he could be flipped at the deadline?

Trade rumors about Adam Dunn swirl constantly. When the team makes any comment about it at all, it's to talk about how important he is to the Reds organization and how they plan to have him around for the long-term. I think that the Reds would make a deal for him if the right incentive were offered, but I doubt that anyone would be willing to part with as much as it would take to get Dunner.
 
As for Dunn's willingness to stay in Cincinnati if it were up to him, I bet he is. Unless, of course, that organization who owns his heart were to come around with an offer. That organization being "any football team."

Thanks Amanda!

Admit it, you're excited: You want to see Johnny Cueto just as much as the next guy.

Of course, you'd also like to see Cueto's first drubbing.

Mr. Haudricourt has the lineups; just click here.  Gwynn is still hurting, so Gross is batting second, while everything else is as per usual, with Suppan on the mound.  The JS Blog also has an interview with Cordero.

I've kept playing with my game-prediction spreadsheet.  Here's what it considers so far, using ZiPS projections for all players:

• OBP and SLG for all starting position players -- that, plus the starting lineups, gives us an run estimation for each offense.  (It would be nice to incorporate platoon splits, but that's a ways off.)
  
• IP and RA (run average--not just earned runs) for both starters--using those, we predict how many innings the starter will last and how many runs they'll give up in that time.
• RA for every member of both bullpens.  This is the weakest part of my model. I just average the RA's for all relievers to get a bullpen RA.  I figure the bullpen will pitch the number of innings that the starter doesn't (good assumption, that one) and use the collective RA to figure out how many runs the bullpens will allow.
• Park factors.  ZiPS are park adjusted, so the Brewers numbers are right, but I need to adjust the Reds runs and runs allowed to Miller Park.
• Home field advantage.  Historically, the home team wins about 54% of the time.   I do something a little bit (but not much) more sophisticated than just tacking on 4% to the home team's win expectancy.

Shove all that into a spreadsheet, find the expected run totals, and generate a win expectancy for both teams.  Today, your projected final score is:

• Brewers 5.21
• Reds 3.95
• Brewers win expectancy: 65%

To which I say, "Stupid spreadsheet!  Don't you know the Cueto is the most awesome rookie pitcher ever?"  Well, ZiPS isn't ready to anoint Cueto a Hall of Famer just yet, so neither is my spreadsheet.

Go Brewers!