Some things to read while making yourself look more intellectual.

Today's Mug is a little short on time, so my apologies if it seems rushed.

Let's open with a Sabathia Smorgasbord:

• The Dodgers are reportedly getting ready to make an offer.
• The Giants may be getting ready to do so as well.
• The Yankees may be putting a deadline on their offer to Sabathia.
• The White Sox may be considering getting involved.

Chone Smith is the latest to attempt to attach a dollar value to free agent pitchers. He has Sabathia as the mot valuable pitcher, at $27.7 million for 2009 and $81.8 over the next three years. Ben Sheets is the fourth most valuable, at $15.7 million for 2009 and $45.9 for three seasons.

If the Brewers lose Sheets, they may get better defensively. Baseball Musings' Probabilistic Model of Range ranked Brewer pitchers dead last defensively in 2008, and Ben Sheets was the worst pitcher, scoring 57.52, where 100 is average. Dave Bush was also near the bottom.

As noted in the FanShots, the Brewers added four minor league pitchers to their 40-man roster (Mark Rogers, Omar Aguilar, Cody Scarpetta and Alexandre Periard) to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. Of the four, only Aguilar strikes me as someone another team would consider keeping on their roster all season. Meanwhile, Paul DePodesta explains why adding a player to your 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft makes it easier to lose them later.

Four Brewer prospects (although one is a former Brewer now) made the TOPPS AA All-Stars: Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar, Michael Brantley and Angel Salome.

On the flip side, Corey Hart's 2008 OBP was the fourth worst among full time outfielders.

On the hot stove:

Marlins: The team and Hanley Ramirez reportedly have differing opinions on whether or not he should play winter ball. The team has told him to stay home and rest.
Phillies: Could be looking to make a move on Raul Ibanez.
Royals: Acquired Coco Crisp from the Red Sox for RP Ramon Ramirez.

In other news, the owners have agreed to ensure all playoff games go at least nine innings, but won't make a decision on blackout policy until January.

A scheduling note: I'm leaving in a few hours to go hunting for several days, and while I'll be available to write on occasion in the evenings, my mornings will be tied up. Roguejim has agreed to handle the Mug for a couple of days early next week, and I'll be back on Friday. The Mug may take a couple of days off for the holiday in the middle. While I'm gone, I'm still hoping to finish my AFL recap and I'll likely be lurking from time to time.

Oh, and I'm not worried about increasing competition.

Drink up.

Some things to read while acknowledging that these pumpkin chocolate chip cookies may be the greatest ever.

Today's collection of links is actually the largest since the end of the season, so let's get right to it.

If you've been reading the site over the weekend you likely know all of this news, but in case you've been away all weekend, here's what you missed:

• Dale Sveum will be back for 2009 after all, as hitting coach. (as noted in this FanShot)
• Craig Counsell's option for 2009 was declined. He could still return as a free agent, of course.
• Mike Maddux won't be back either, after being "overwhelmed by a huge deal" to take over as pitching coach in Texas. The Brewers reportedly offered him a multi-year deal. (Noted in this FanShot) The Newberg Report has a story from the Rangers' side.
• Joe Dillon also won't be back. The A's claimed him off waivers after the Brewers DFA'd him last week.
• Ken Rosenthal is reporting the Brewers' offer to CC Sabathia was in fact for $100 million, but the contract was for five years, not four. For me, this removes any possibility Sabathia will return. (noted in this FanShot)
• The Brewers have until tomorrow to decide if Mike Cameron will return in 2009.

Now, other stuff. The Fall GM meetings begin today, giving Doug Melvin the first chance to sit across the table from new Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik. Murray Chass seems to think hiring Zduriencik was the wrong decision, mainly because he had a profile of Kim Ng all ready to go. Of course, everyone expects most of the conversation at the meetings to be about Jake Peavy, but it sounds like Hank Blalock's name will come up as well.

One would assume Doug Melvin is at least listening to offers for J.J. Hardy. The Junkball Blues, meanwhile, crunched the numbers to figure out what kind of production would be needed from Hardy and Alcides Escobar to justify moving Hardy to third and Bill Hall out of the lineup.

Planning on making a trip to Vegas? Current odds have the Brewers at 15-to-1 to win the 2009 World Series. The odds would have to get a lot better before I'd be interested. Right now, 15-to-1 is a better shot than 19 other teams have, and tied with the Dodgers and Twins. (h/t Redleg Nation)

Tim Kurkijian says the Sabathia Sweepstakes is the third most interesting story of the offseason. With Sabathia the Brewers had the sixth best starting rotation in all of baseball, according to Beyond the Box Score.

Sabathia, Ray Durham and Russell Branyan all filed for free agency over the weekend, joining these players:

Angels Darren Oliver, Juan Rivera
Athletic Alan Embree
Cub Kerry Wood and also Henry Blanco,
Mariners Raul Ibanez, Willie Bloomquist, Miguel Cairo
Marlins Mark Hendrickson, Arthur Rhodes
Mets Pedro Martinez, Luis Ayala, Tony Armas, Moises Alou, Ricardo Rincon, Ramon Martinez and also Orlando Hernandez
Phillies So Taguchi, Tom Gordon
Pirates Doug Mientkiewicz, Chris Gomez, Jason Michaels, Luis Rivas
Rockies Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, Livan Hernandez, Adam Melhuse, Scott Podsednik

At this point I feel obligated to remind you that Orlando Hernandez is free to throw the banana for other teams.

FanGraphs has built the All Free Agent Bargain Team. There are some decent players on there, but that team would lose most of the time.

As we look into the future, few things are abolutely certain, but we can say this: despite boatloads of other teams making the exodus from spring training sites in Florida to Arizona, the Red Sox are committed to training in Florida through 2038.

It's a good thing we'll probably have some time to learn to say his name: The Pirates have signed an 18-year-old shortstop from South Africa named Mpho Ngoepe. There has never been a South African player in the major leagues. Have there been any from anywhere in Africa? I do not know.

Indians minor leaguer Randy Newsom's blogs from Venezuela are really making me want to go see a game there.

Finally, let's say you're the Washington Nationals. You lost 102 games in 2008, the franchise's first 100 loss season since 1976. You set a modern era single season record for lowest attendance in a new ballpark. You could count the number of fans listening to your games on the radio or watching them on TV on your fingers and toes. Do you honestly believe people are going to come out in hordes to buy your new jerseys? You're invited to join them at the unveiling Thursday. Bring a friend, otherwise you might be there all alone.

Drink up.

Things must be slowing down a bit...today, there were only 270 posts and articles in my Google Reader from over 250 baseball blogs and sites.

The Peoria Javelinas defeated Surprise yesterday, 10-3. Omar Aguilar was the only Brewer prospect to appear in the game, and he allowed one hit while pitching a scoreless ninth. Box Score

The West Oahu CaneFires defeated North Shore 7-6. Chris Cody started the game and gave up four runs on eight hits in just 3.1 innings, but did strike out 7. He leads the Hawai'i Winter League with 12 K's in 3 appearances. Caleb Gindl went 1-for-4 with a walk. He's hitting .250/.364/.429 in his first 7 games in Hawai'i. Box Score

The Javelinas travel to Surprise today at 12:35 local time (2:35 in Milwaukee). The CaneFires play North Shore again tonight at 7:05 local time, which I think is five minutes after midnight at home.

Closer to home, we have a few more season in review posts. Big League Stew has their nail in the coffin on the 2008 Brewers. Jeff analyzed the Phillies/Brewers series over at The Hardball Times. Brian Anderson has his list of favorite Brewer moments from 2008. He also reveals that he's signed a five-year extension that will keep him with the Brewers through 2013.

I'll separate this one from the pack, because sometimes that helps when I want to make fun of something: The FanGraphs Brewer season in review has this quote in it: What? I'll admit I'm sometimes clumsy when turning a phrase and my use of commas is borderline atrocious, but I at least usually proofread my stuff at least once to make sure the things I say make more sense than that. Click the link if you'd like to read more about how Jeff Suppan negated the performances of Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia. Or just move on. Life's too short.

Between the Green Pillars compares several Brewers' performances to their preseason projections. Most of them are about what you'd expect, but a couple of guys (J.J. Hardy, for example) don't get enough credit for the season they had.

Speaking of 2008 productivity, four Brewers are on Beyond The Box Score's quiz comparing 2008 hitters. I only got 8 of the 31 questions correct. Go see if you can do better.

There's only one link in today's Sabathia Smorgasbord, and if you've been around the web at all lately you've probably seen it: Ryan Braun thinks the Brewers have a shot at re-signing CC Sabathia, and that he might take fewer years for the same money to stay in Milwaukee. It seems unlikely, but Braun's been a straight-shooter in the past, so I have no reason to doubt him.

If this guy shaves Sabathia's name and number into his back hair to go with the "Go Brewers" shaved into his chest hair, will it make Sabathia any more likely to stay? The answer is probably no.

I don't expect Prince Fielder to be on the move this offseason, but if he is MLB Trade Rumors has six places he might be headed. Two-Fisted Slopper has a look at the Brewers' roster headed into the offseason, and makes a few predictions.

Before any decisions can be made on the 2009 roster, though, a decision needs to be made on interim manager Dale Sveum. J.J. Hardy, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Jeff Suppan all want him back. And of course, we've already heard the same from Jason Kendall, Craig Counsell and Robin Yount. Fielder's quote: It's true. Sveum really did maintain confidence in everyone, no matter what they did. Just ask Corey Hart, who hit .170/.160/.213 in games managed by Sveum but still started and batted sixth in every game.

By 2010, the Brewers and Miller Park will have spent $9-12 million on a new HD scoreboard. Maybe they can show Packer games on it, since about twice as many TVs in Milwaukee preferred regular season football over playoff baseball.

So we've all more or less accepted the argument that Russell Branyan is a platoon-only hitter and can't hit lefties, right? But is it true? Geoff Young of Baseball Digest Daily takes a closer look.

Here are some hot stove notes:

• The Cub Reporter has a quote suggesting the Cubs will raise their payroll in 2009, and begin to act like more of a large-market club.
• The Rockies declined their option on RP Matt Herges, making him a free agent.
• The Reds are going to let Corey Patterson and former Brewer Paul Bako walk.
• The Mariners will most likely not re-sign Raul Ibanez, leading Bleeding Blue and Teal to make a list of places where he needs to sign to maximize the Mariners' draft compensation.

So if Lasik surgery could take Jason Kendall from a 63 OPS+ in 2007 to a 73 OPS+ in 2008, what can it do for 41 year old free-agent-to-be Omar Vizquel, who hit .222/.283/.267 in 2008? We're about to find out.

Today is our tenth day after the end of the regular season, and there's still not a single managerial vacancy, but the Rockies did fire their bench coach, hitting coach and third base coach and re-assign their bullpen coach yesterday. (h/t Purple Row)

Looking for work? The Astros are looking for an assistant GM for their AA affiliate, and the Yankees need an administrative assistant for business development. Update your resume today.

Oh, and if you want to be a ninja, you may want to check out this quick tutorial on smoke bombs.

Drink up.

Ryan Braun has missed the last two games, and he'll miss at least one more.  There's not a lot of clarity about his health situation--he sounds optimistic he'll be back on the field in a few days, but it's possible that his problems run deeper.  I can't get too interested in the details of injuries, so I'll leave that part of it up to those who want to hash it out.

But it does open up some questions we really didn't want to be asking.  What if Braun heads to the DL?  What if he's out for the season (or a substantial part of it)?

Obviously, any extended absence is a serious blow to the lineup.  Not only is Braun one of the best hitters on the team--he leads Brewers regulars with a 137 OPS+--but the rest of the lineup looks a little more toothless without him.  Sure, guys like Hart and Branyan can hit, but a Kapler-Fielder-Hart, or Hall-Fielder-Hart middle of the order just isn't the same.

If the injury sends Braun to the DL, but there's good reason to think he'll be back before the end of the month, I'd be surprised to see the team make any serious moves.  Kapler has filled in nicely, Branyan (and even Hall) can play left, and I wouldn't be shocked to see Ray Durham out there.  (I don't endorse it, but I wouldn't rule it out.)

Not only that, but a DL move opens a roster spot for a replacement.  The logical callups, I suppose, are:

• Joe Dillon: remember it was last August he impressed us so much, and since he's been on the team this year, he's the easiest guy for Ned to add to the mix.
• Laynce Nix: he's OPSing almost 900 at Nashville, and is sort of Branyan without the walks and the major league track record.  I'm skeptical, because he was a lot better the first two months of the season than he has been since; his June and July OBPs were .298 and .310, respectively.  One plus is that he's a solid defender in a corner.
  
• Brad Nelson: he's probably not great shakes with the glove, but he has played quite a bit in left.  I think he's my pick among these three, because he's nearly as powerful as Nix, but has a nearly .400 OBP.  He's also swooned some the last couple of months, though.

Nothing too exciting there.  I doubt it would matter much, since if it's a short-term injury, Kapler will be the guy. 

What if, heaven forbid, Braun is out for most of the rest of the season?

As exciting as Kapler has been at times, there's no way he's the left fielder of a potential championship team (at least not this one) for two months.  Nor is anybody else in the fold right now.  Now that it's August, the trade market is much more constrained, but I've scanned the rosters of out-of-contention teams looking for possible replacements who have likely cleared waivers:

• Shannon Stewart ...just released by the Blue Jays...basically he's another Kapler.
• Aubrey Huff ...having a solid (302/360/550) season for the Orioles.  We could do worse.
• Raul Ibanez ...on the block before the deadline; the Mariners should want to get rid of him.  He's also having a decent year (286/350/483), but he's a major liability with the glove.
• Randy Winn ...Stewart, only more expensive.

Blech.  Huff's really the only option that could come close to replacing Braun's offense, and we'd sacrifice some defense plugging him in over Kapler or Nix.  He's also signed for $8MM next year, so we'd basically be borrowing him just to find a taker in the offseason.  That's not going to happen.

Of course, there's always the nuclear option.  Barry Bonds is on the market.  The man can hit.  If Braun is out for the season, I will pound the Bonds drum until you're so sick of hearing about it you'll want to go back to getting your Brewers commentary from Haudricourt.  But I realize it's far fetched.

Exercises like this are always interesting, especially after the trade deadline.  Let's hope this one is only an exercise.

So I spent 12 innings sitting in the heat at the Iowa Cubs-Colorado Springs Sky Sox game last night. I nearly sweated myself to death and sat way too close to a throng of screaming 10-year-olds...but it sounds like I had more fun than I would have watching the Brewer game.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score

So, while I attempt to recover from my short night of sleep, the trade deadline is about 6 hours away. The Official Website says the Brewers are done making moves, but here are some other moves that have been made, should be made or could be made:

DONE:

The Yankees sent LaTroy Hawkins to the Astros for a low-level prospect.
The Tigers traded Ivan Rodriguez to the Yankees for Kyle Farnsworth.

"DONE," BUT NOT CONFIRMED:

The Reds traded Ken Griffer, Jr. to the White Sox for an undisclosed return.
The Red Sox send Manny Ramirez to Florida in a three-team deal involving the Pirates and Jason Bay.

OTHER RUMORS:

The Cubs are unwilling to give up Felix Pie to get Raul Ibanez.
The Twins may be willing to give up Boof Bonser to get Rich Aurilia from the Giants.
The Marlins may send 1B Mike Jacobs to the Giants for Bengie Molina.
The Rays are working on a deal for Adam Dunn.

Ok, with that out of the way, what else is out there?

Yovani Gallardo's rehab is going well and he's still hoping to start games in September.

Right Field Bleachers compares 2008 Mike Cameron to 2005 Geoff Jenkins, who produced similarly before finishing the season smoking hot. Cameron, of course, has 25 fewer games to work with, but I'd be ok with it if he finished the season with Jenkins' 2005 numbers.

The most recent Bugs and Cranks and Riding the Pine power rankings have the Brewers 7th.

On injuries:
Tim Hudson will likely need Tommy John surgery and will be out until around this time in 2009.
Rangers SP Eric Hurley was removed from yesterday's start after 2 innings and will miss his next start with biceps tendinitis.
Tigers RP Todd Jones "felt something" while pitching Wednesday. That's specific.
Scott Rolen's surgically repaired shoulder is bothering him again. He missed yesterday's game.
Kerry Wood missed his scheduled simulated game yesterday with the blister that never ends.

That's all for today. Drink up.