Some things to read instead of simulating a universe with rocks.

So if you missed the announcement yesterday, I decided to go ahead and create the Brew Crew Ball WhatifSports League. If you have no idea what I'm talking about, click this link for an explanation. There are only 12 teams in the league and two have already been created, so if you want one of the 10 remaining spots, click the first link soon.

As the trade market continues to swirl, you may find yourself wondering, "Has anyone ever created a database featuring every trade Doug Melvin has ever made as a major league general manager?" Yes, someone has.

There are more than a handful of free agent predictions out there today, so I'll just dump them into bullet points and you can decide for yourself what's worth noting:

• Fire Brand of the American League predicts the Brewers will pick up Jeremy Affeldt and Brad Penny, and has the Brewers as the runner-up to land Juan Cruz and Jon Garland.
• The Pinstriper has the Brewers signing Brad Penny, Juan Cruz, Jeremy Affeldt, Russell Branyan and Brad Wilkerson.
• Baseball Blogging Network says the Brewers would be a good fit for Trevor Hoffman. So does FakeTeams.
• A monkey drawing names and teams out of a plastic cup thinks CC Sabathia will be a Marlin.

Let's move right into a Sabathia Smorgasbord:

• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs estimates Sabathia's value at 6 years, $162 million.
• Blue Jays beat writer Jordan Bastian says the Yankees' big offer to Sabathia could impact the Jays' negotiations with A.J. Burnett.
• Chone Smith has a projection for the 2009 Yankees that includes Sabathia, Burnett AND Derek Lowe.
• The Mets reportedly are not pursuing Sabathia after all.
• Sabathia received one vote in ESPN's NL MVP balloting.
• Oh, it's THOSE Girls has made a list of pros and cons for Sabathia to consider before signing or not signing in New York.

Staying on the mound, there are a few notes out there regarding Ben Sheets. Crawfish Boxes has combined predictions for the Astros for 2009 and the monetary value of a win to make the case that, in Houston, signing Ben Sheets could pay for itself. USS Mariner thinks the Mariners should also be keeping a close eye on him. Finally, Recondite Baseball noted that Sheets was one of only twelve pitchers since 1990 to post a season with a WHIP under 1 and pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. (Sheets did it in 2004)

Will the Brewers trade one high priced, high injury risk pitcher for another? Adam McCalvy says the Brewers are not a likely candidate to sign Kerry Wood. Neither are the Tigers.

On defense: Baseball Musings Probabilistic Model of Range has the Brewers 23rd in baseball in first base defense, and Prince Fielder well below average at 95.26. On the flip side, Brewer catchers ranked first, and Jason Kendall was the best full-time defensive catcher in all of baseball at 109.97. It's worth noting that a measure of range isn't really the complete picture on catcher defense.

Two prospect notes today: The Official Site has another look at Lorenzo Cain's impressive season in the AFL, and Hot-prospects.net thinks the Brewers will have Brent Brewer play in Brevard County for the third straight season in 2009.

Elsewhere, around the hot stove:

A's: Might be looking to trade Bobby Crosby.
Braves: Are reportedly out of the running for Jake Peavy but may have interest in A.J. Burnett.
Cardinals: Are reportedly making left-handed relief and shortstop a priority.
Cubs: May consider offering a deal to Randy Johnson.

As Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood, Trevor Hoffman and others continue to sit on the free agent market, Big League Stew asks when everyone started hating closers. The answer is pretty resounding: "When they started asking for 5/$75 deals."

Does the ball fly differently at Miller Park based on the month? Beyond the Box Score did the math and the answer, perhaps surprisingly, is yes.

FanGraphs has resurrected their "Get to know a stat" series. The first two up this time are First pitch strike percentage and outside swing percentage.

Looking for something to do in between Mugs? Apparently MLB.com is hiring. I think I may polish my resume a bit today.

Oh, and as someone witnessing way too much wedding planning, seeing virtually every picture taken at Chad Cordero's wedding was a bit more than I needed this morning.

Drink up.

Some things to read while waiting to see The Fort Wayne Tin Caps' new uniforms. Spoiler alert: The team will most likely not wear tin caps.

It's quiet this morning, but it likely won't stay that way for long as today is the first day teams can offer contracts to free agents from other teams. Brewed Sports wants the Brewers to make an early splash by signing Kerry Wood and Randy Johnson. Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks wants the Brewers to sign Eric Hinske. I'm just hoping the Brewers don't sign anyone who will join Eric Gagne, Jeff Suppan and Jeffrey Hammonds on a future version of this top ten list of worst contracts in Wisconsin sports history.

Baseball Digest Daily released their free agent rankings today. Since lists make a short Mug seem longer, here are the Brewer highlights:

• CC Sabathia is the top rated starting pitcher.
• Ben Sheets is the third rated starting pitcher.
• Russell Branyan is ranked third among third basemen.
• Ray Durham is ranked fourth among second basemen.
• Brian Shouse is the fifth rated lefty reliever.
• Mike Lamb is ranked fifth among third basemen.
• Gabe Kapler is ranked sixth among right fielders.
• Guillermo Mota is the sixth rated "utility reliever."
• Eric Gagne is the eighth rated closer.
• Craig Counsell is ranked eleventh among shortstops.

Depending on who you ask, the Mets may or may not make a play for CC Sabathia. MetsBlog downplays the possibility.

Technically, Salomon Torres could have been a free agent as well, but the Brewers exercised his option so he will be under team control if he decides to return. The Official Site has an overview of the bullpen situation.

As noted in the FanShots, Ryan Braun became the eighth Brewer in franchise history to win a Silver Slugger Award yesterday.

If Braun lives up to his Bill James projection for 2009, he might win another one: .301/.364/.620. Bill James projections for individual players are available on the player pages at FanGraphs. If you want the whole collection, you're supposed to buy the book. I sat down yesterday with a notepad file and Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis tool and discovered that, despite low projections for Mike Cameron and Bill Hall, a 2009 Brewer lineup featuring Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Fielder, Hart, Cameron, Hall, Kendall and the pitcher's spot projects to 4.965 runs per game. The 2008 Brewers only scored 4.630.

While I'm on the subject of stats, R.J. Anderson of Beyond the Box Score is working on numbers to quantify the volume of wins or losses added by a manager. His initial numbers have management costing the Brewers approximately .04 wins in 2008. I'm pretty sure Yost was responsible for more than that.

Does the entire Brewers' organization have defensive problems? No less than five Brewer prospects appear on Recondite Baseball's leaderboards for errors in the minor leagues this season.

Two trades were completed yesterday, one sending Nick Swisher to the Yankees and one sending Kevin Gregg to the Cubs. Two other stove notes today:

D-Backs: Negotiations with Randy Johnson have apparently hit an impasse, leading Johnson to declare free agency.
Marlins: The team is reportedly listening to offers but not actively seeking a trade involving Jeremy Hermida or Dan Uggla.

Do you love physics and want to use it to understand why a sidearmer's pitches have different movement? It's a bit much for me, but maybe Matt Lentzner of The Hardball Times' article is just what you were looking for.

Oh, and NL Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum is perpetuating the theory that he's only 15 by spending the offseason getting braces and a puppy.

Drink up.

Some things to read while waiting to see if you'll be able to get Trenni and the MLB Network in your area. Here's more on what the network will offer.

Ben Sheets appears to be the top story today: Jerry Crasnick has a nice piece on him at ESPN.com that touches on his injury history and mentions the Rangers and Astros as possible candidates to sign him. Baseball-Intellect rates Sheets the third best free agent, behind Manny Ramirez and CC Sabathia. Citi-Blog wants Sheets to be a Met.

On the subject of Sheets, I've added a new poll to see what you'd like the Brewers to offer him. Cast your vote today.

View From Bernie's Chalet wants Seth McClung to be the Brewers' next closer, now that Salomon Torres has retired. I'll have more on the bullpen later today, so be sure to check back after noon.

Between the Green Pillars is calling Bruce Seid's hiring as Director of Amateur Scouting "the biggest little hire of the week," and wants to make sure you didn't miss the significance. I guess I figured no one commented on it because I made a terrible joke in the Fanshot.

Tomorrow is the first day when free agents are allowed to talk money with other teams. Tom H. has a preview of the Sabathia sweepstakes. Before it gets too hot, let's see what else is on the stove:

D-Backs: Randy Johnson still has not filed for free agency, and is hoping to reach a deal to remain in Arizona.
Dodgers: The team is denying reports that they're listening to offers for C Russell Martin.
Marlins: The next Marlin on the move may be reliever Kevin Gregg, who spent much of the season as their closer before injuring his knee.
Padres: Could be on the verge of trading Jake Peavy to Atlanta for the Snorks.
Reds: David Weathers has not received a contract offer from the team yet, so he's assuming they're not interested in retaining him and preparing to move on.
White Sox: Jermaine Dye could be on the trading block, and team scouts are reportedly in Arizona watching Mets prospects play in the AFL.

Two interesting notes from the Mariners today: First, GM Jack Zduriencik is mulling over adding three more candidates to the list of potential hires before conducting second interviews. He says two former major league managers have been in touch regarding the opening. He stopped short of calling them "NY" and "WR."

Then, in a meeting with season ticket holders, Zduriencik said the Mariners are looking to create a "Department of Baseball Research." If they need someone who wanders around the web and gathers links every morning, I'll listen to offers.

Oh, and if you're out doing routine maintenance on your baseball field today, watch out for military training devices.

Drink up.

I know you'll all be very disappointed, but today's Trash Day was uneventful, so I don't have an anecdote to lead off the Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score

So, if you've been watching the games, you probably realize that Rickie Weeks is hitting .273/.467/.636 in the three games since the Durham trade. This one, however, snuck up on me: Bill Hall is hitting .405/.444/.833 with 4 home runs in his last 12 games. Adam Charles of Bugs & Cranks has a theory to explain it: Magic Skoal.

It's going to take more than chewing tobacco to get him back to the big leagues, but the Brewers signed Jay Gibbons to a minor league deal yesterday, ending his 27-game career with the Long Island Ducks.

After I complained in yesterday's Mug about the Whisnant rankings and suggested their ranking system could use a little work, I got an email from Paul Kuo of Whatifsports.com, who wanted to make sure I had seen their most recent power rankings. On the strength of the Sabathia trade the Brewers skyrocketed up the charts to fourth this week, so obviously the WIS rankings are better.

Also, CBSSports.com ranks the Brewers sixth, and second best in the NL.

TheJay is working to quantify Vulture Wins, and discovered that both Salomon Torres and Brian Shouse are among the league leaders. Reall,y, if you just start checking Recondite Baseball every day, you'll be one step ahead of everyone else when the Mug comes out.

On injuries:

White Sox 3B Joe Crede was scratched from last night's lineup with back stiffness.
Cards OF Chris Duncan has been placed on the DL with a bulging disc in his neck.
Reds SP Josh Fogg needed 30 stitches to repair damage done to his upper lip after being hit by a ball in batting practice.

Certainly, yesterday's most puzzling transaction was the Astros' decision to trade for Randy Wolf. The Astros are 12 games back of the Cubs and BP Postseason Odds gives them a .08% chance at making the playoffs, roughly 1 in 1220. R.J. Anderson of Beyond the Box Score is one of thousands who didn't like the move, but Astros beat writer Brian McTaggart defended it.

In other transactions, the Diamondbacks traded a prospect to the Nationals for Jon Rauch, meaning two of the tallest players in MLB history (along with Randy Johnson) are now on the same roster.

Here's a puzzling decision: Skyking162 has ranked the top 25 position players of right now. Well, really he's ranked the top 23 and given 18 more honorable mentions to get to 41. Here are some names on the list so far:

Evan Longoria, who has yet to finish his first big league season.
Brian Roberts
B.J. Upton
Mark Ellis
Rick Ankiel
Scott Rolen
David DeJesus
Aaron Rowand
Adrian Beltre

Yet somehow, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are nowhere to be found. With the possible exception of Longoria, there's not a single guy on that list who deserves to be ahead of Braun and Fielder. And Mark Ellis? That's a joke.

Francisco Rodriguez is threatening to become the first closer ever to reach 60 saves in a season. 6-4-2 has the math on what it will take for him to get there.

These seem to tie together nicely: In-Between Hops has a list of the greatest living players in the history of 29 franchises. Joe Posnanski takes a look at players who posted more than three "great" seasons in their careers.

If you're looking for a lesson on somewhat advanced statistics, this debate between Tangotiger and Geoff Baker is pretty instructive on the strengths, weaknesses and correct uses of ERA+.

Oh, and here's a hurricane prediction that's as accurate as any you'll see today.

Drink up.

I think Daron Sutton is out to get us.  In the first inning last night, he was talking about how the D-Backs just can't seem to beat the Brewers.  He might as well have announced during the pregame that Dave Bush was throwing a no-hitter.

Tonight's starters have a combined age of 155 77, with a lot of that burden carried by Randy Johnson.  RJ is starting to pitch like an old guy, only not as well as Jamie Moyer, the quintessential old pitcher in the 21st century.  He coughed up 7 runs in two of his last three starts, and his ERA is only a smidgen better than Dave Bush's.  That said, he did hold the Red Sox to two runs in his last start, and that's nothing to sneeze at.  (Also, don't sneeze at Randy.  Literally.  He'll get angry, and he'll also get hurt.)

Jeff Suppan goes for us, and despite a blip a couple of starts ago, he's still in the middle of an impressive run.  His ERA in May and June combined is 3.38, and he's given up only four longballs in that time.  (Could be luck, but either way, I'll take it.)  Another interesting note from Supp's gamelog: he's only gone over 100 pitches four time this year.  Despite that, he's averaging just a tiny bit below 6 innings per start.

Enough of that...game time is 8:40 CT, and here's the BR Game Preview.

Go Brewers!

Finally, that record is starting to look respectable.  It's a bummer that our 7-1 streak coincides with an even better run from the Cubs, but ultimately, it doesn't matter how much ground we make up during on hot streaks, it matters how many games we win.  We're now on pace for an 84-win season.  That won't be good enough for the postseason, but it's a big improvement on where we were at a week ago.

Game time tonight is 7:05 CT, and it's Randy Johnson against Seth McClung.  Here's the BR Game Preview, which tells you that Kendall has an 807 career OPS against the Big Unit.  Now that Kendall can't hit very well and RJ isn't the same pitcher he once was, all bets are off...but I'm betting on Seth.

Go Brewers!

Here are some things to read while I try to decide if I should buy the new REM album. Geoff from Ducksnorts seems to like it. Seriously? Is this what it's come to? I'm taking musical advice from the guy who writes Ducksnorts?

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps

Ned Yost is in his sixth year as manager of the Milwaukee Brewers. He's been in baseball for decades. He just now decided that sending a reliever out there four straight days is bad. As a result, Salomon Torres was unavailable yesterday. Kudos to Ned for working out a new strategy...but really, should it take 6 years to get there?

Adam McCalvy wrote the easiest story ever: A profile of Mike Rivera. I'm glad Rivera could fit this into his busy schedule. Topics covered include how to best remove splinters from one's backside, interesting things he's found under the bench, and why playing him more than once annually could turn out to be a good idea.

Yesterday, I mentioned a rumor that the Brewers were considering moving their AA affiliation from Huntsville to Connecticut. The Connecticut Defenders' relationship with the Giants is deteriorating quickly and will likely end soon. After writing that, I was fortunate enough to have this conversation with Joe Perez of the Norwich Bulletin, which lays out the complaints the team has about the Giants. For an alternative view, check out the 12th comment on this post over at McCovey Chronicles, which does a nice job of portraying the other side.

Didn't he just do this? Dayn Perry has made another top ten list of free agent disappointments. Eric Gagne checks in at #7. Barry Zito, signed for 6 more years and over $100 million more, is nowhere to be found.

On injuries:

Braves OF Matt Diaz will miss at least a month with a partial tear of his PCL.
Troy Percival made an appearance on the DL the same day he made an appearance in my mailbox on the cover of The Sporting News.

RotoJunkie has taken over what used to be the Baseball Happenings Weekly Blog Poll. Lance Berkman, Edinson Volquez and Geovany Soto are this week's NL MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year, respectively. Full results here. Here's my ballot:

Rookie of the Year:
1. Geovany Soto
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Joey Votto

Cy Young:
1. Edinson Volquez
2. Brandon Webb
3. Carlos Zambrano

MVP:
1. Lance Berkman
2. Dan Uggla
3. Chipper Jones

I guess I should've seen this coming, but somehow I had no idea: Randy Johnson tied Roger Clemens on the all-time strikeout list last night. Combine that with 289 wins and he now seems like a pretty clear-cut lock for the Hall of Fame.

Trust a voice of experience, this move won't make things any better: The Rockies are bumping Jorge De La Rosa from the rotation and replacing him with Glendon Rusch.

Bret Boone retired earlier this week and I didn't really treat it as news because he's been out of a job for months. This Ichiro quote about Bret Boone, though, is fun all by itself:

Oh, and the Mariners don't want lesbians making out in their ballpark. (Hat tip to 6-4-2)

The Mug is off tomorrow and Sunday as I continue my quest to drive 100,000 miles in 2008. Drink up.