To listen to the announcers last night and read the paper the last few days, you'd think that we left center field and the number two spot empty for the first 25 games, just waiting to get Mike Cameron back so that we could really start our season.

Cameron's a good player, and he's definitely better than the alternatives.  Yes, even Gabe Kapler.  But let's be reasonable and try to get a sense of how much Cameron is likely to help this team.

Oddly enough, one possible answer is: Not very much.

Granted, Kapler and Tony Gwynn probably played above their heads, but including last night's game (because I'm lazy), the aggregate center field line for the Brewers so far is 294/342/451.  That's pretty darn good for center field--in fact, it's as far above average for the position as any other position on the club.  (I know, that isn't saying much.)  Even more impressive when you consider it included 44 PAs of Gabe Gross's sub-300 SLG, and 1 PA of Hernan Iribarren's OPS of zero.

Click over to FanGraphs if you want to see a whole bunch of projections for Cameron.  My system of choice, ZiPS, gives Cameron a 254/341/447 line.  In other words, basically the same as we've gotten so far.

As I've said, we couldn't have expected the platoon (Kaplynn?) to keep producing at that level, but at the plate, Cameron is probably not going to give us a boost. 

If you want to compare Cameron's offense to what he is replacing on the '07 team, we'll have to look back at the glory days of the Menchkins platoon.  Hall and Braun are probably going to give us about what they gave us last year (more of Braun, but probably not quite so phenomenal), so on offense, Cameron steps in for the left fielders.

Last year, the two-headed monster gave us production of 261/318/453.  It's a little worse than the Cameron projections, but not enough to make a big difference.  So again, at the plate, acquiring Cameron is a wash.  (On the field, anyway; off the field, Cameron is cheaper than Menchkins was, uses one fewer roster spot, and doesn't require special hat orders.)

Of course, I've gotten an awful long ways into a discussion of Mike Cameron without touching on his defense.  I guess I saved the best for last.

As you all probably know, Cameron is an elite defender.  Defensive metrics make it hard to anoint a winner, but he is possibly the best center fielder in baseball.  According to RZR (leaders in 2007 , or 2006), he's among the top few in the league along with Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran, and Juan Pierre.  (RZR doesn't take outfield arms into effect.)

Another data point: according to MGL's proprietary Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) system, Cameron was among the top CFs from 2000-2003 , as well.  (You'll have to scroll down to find the CFs.)  In fact, in that span, he's the highest-rated player who was a regular for the better part of those four years.  I wouldn't put too much stock in 5-8 year old defensive data--guys slow down, even guys who take a lot of stimulants--but it shows that the 06-07 data is no fluke.

There's no good way to know whether Kapler and Gwynn would have been as good in the field as Cameron will be; we just won't accumulate the data.  (*Someone* might have play-by-play and hit location data for Gwynn's time in the minors, but *someone* is kind of lazy in crunching the numbers.) 

As I noted in my article about defense earlier this week, the outfield has been strong, and it seems like a good bet that Ryan Braun is not to blame for that.  So as the conventional wisdom would indicate, Kapler is a pretty good defensive center fielder, though almost certainly not in the same league as Cameron.

So...that's what we have to expect from our shiny new toy.  He's not our savior--there are a lot of other bats in the lineup that have to play that role right now--but he is a key part of the offseason plan that turned the Brewers into what is most likely a solid defensive team.

(Witty open goes here). It's time for a Frosty Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason odds: 85.5 wins and 21.7% chance of winning the Central.

A side note from the BP Odds: 21 games into the season, the D-Backs are already being given a 67% chance of winning the NL West, which was supposed to be one of baseball's tightest divisional races.

Jim Powell's blog may be the best place to start today. He talks about Fielder, Turnbow, Gabe Gross and Geoff Jenkins.

Tom H. notes that one year ago, April 23 of 2007, Derrick Turnbow also saved a game where Prince hit two home runs. Considering Turnbow hadn't saved a game since, I thought it was an interesting coincidence.

Can great Brewer moments influence history? Bugs and Cranks seems to think so.

The Hardball Times looks at the future of Yovani Gallardo.

ESPN the Magazine ranked the Brewers fourth in all of MLB in Fan Satisfaction Rankings. Just think where they'd rank if there were more toilets outside.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Rangers P Kason Gabbard has been DL'ed with a sore lower back.
Reds OF Norris Hopper was placed on the DL with "elbow inflammation."
Daisuke Matsuzaka missed last night's scheduled start with the flu.
Mariners P Carlos Silva left last night's game with a thigh injury. It doesn't appear to be serious.

If you missed it yesterday, or you read the site via RSS so you don't see Fanshots at all, the Reds fired GM Wayne Krivsky yesterday and replaced him with Walt Jocketty. It seems awfully early to be making big changes.

The Cubs picked up their 10,000th win last night. As Dave Pinto notes at Baseball Musings, that's about 75 wins/season since 1876.

Elsewhere in the Central, Fungoes decries the folly of having 13 pitchers on the Cardinals roster, but fails to mention that the Brewers had 14 pitchers during the same series.

Ah, the wonders of a Youtube era. Now, you too can bring your camera to the ballpark and shoot crappy, incoherent video of a Mets reliever responding to the drunken masses during warmups. If you're bored today, take a moment to look at some of the shooter's other "work" and feel better about your life.

Credibility fades fast when you do things like this: Last night, reports came out that Frank Thomas had signed with the A's. But he hasn't yet.

The circle of life continues: Gabe Gross was the odd man out in Milwaukee so he was traded to Tampa, causing Dan Johnson to be the odd man out for the second time in April.

Beyond the Box Score takes a great look at ball and strike calls and how they vary based on several demographic issues. An interesting confirmation of what we've suspected all along: veterans get calls.

True Blue LA takes a look at the world around him and reaches an interesting conclusion: Sabermetrics and stat work have become so commonplace that having a stat guy on hand no longer gives teams an advantage. He says Sabermetrics are dead, but that's like saying the internet is dead because everyone uses it.

Baseball Musings passes along a great list of hitting tips to distribute by age.

The Mariners are encouraging fans to bring their Nintendo DS to the game to chat with other fans, look at stats and order food and drinks from their seats. I have a DS, and if I could bring it to the game and do that, I'd absolutely bring it along.

We're only a couple of days in, but turnout so far has been underwhelming for this week's Fan Opinion Poll. If you haven't voted yet, please do so. Also, thanks to Dan Walsh at The Daily Drink for his help promoting it.

That's all for today. If you'd like to submit a link for inclusion in tomorrow's Mug, drop it in the comments. Drink up.

It's only two games, but we are facing the Phillies at Miller Park this week.  To get us ready for the mini-series, I fired some questions off to Tom Goyne, who writes the excellent Phillies blog, Balls Sticks and Stuff.  Here's what he had to say:

We're not heartbroken to have parted ways with Geoff Jenkins, but we do have our memories.  What are your impressions so far?

The Phillies don't have Geoff Jenkins.  You may not have heard, but Brett Favre retired from football and now platoons in right field with Jayson Werth for the Phillies.  Offensively he fits in pretty well with the Phillies in that he seems to have an all or nothing swing.
 
I asked a Mets blogger a little while ago which team in the division she feared the most, and she picked the Braves over the Phils.  How do see these three teams finishing, and what will make the difference?

I think making a prediction on how the Phillies, Mets and Braves are going to finish out the NL East is a foolhardy exercise.   The three are just too close to make a call with any sort of confidence.  For the Braves, its all about the health of their 1999 All-Star starting rotation, or, how well they fill the holes.  Come to think of it, thats what's going to make the difference overall in the division, whoever can fill their injury holes best.
 
Brad Lidge, Tom Gordon, no Brett Myers ... there are some familiar names in the bullpen, and I can see this group putting together anywhere from a pretty good season down to an unmitigated disaster. What do you expect?

So far they have been pretty good this season, and the pen was pretty good in the September stretch run too.  The one name you left out was JC Romero.  Guy pitches two, three days in a row all the time and doesn't bat an eye.  Since the Phils picked him up off the waiver wire in June of '07, he's pitched 61 innings and given up only 5 ER.
 
It seems like Phillies fans have a complicated relationship with Pat Burrell.  He's off to a great start in his walk year.  What do you see happening with Burrell and the Phils at the end of this season?

It's definitely been a pendular love/hate type thing.  I'd love to say I haven't been one of those people but I have.  In '06 he struck out looking with runners on base 587 times.  Last season he carried the team in the second half, particularly when his buddy Chase Utley was out for a month with a broken hand.  Plus, he looks like he cares now, whereas before, he always seemed indifferent.  Look at video of the Phillies clinching the NL East last year and you'll see that Burrell was the first one to the pitcher's mound and he was in the dugout.  In the end, you just have to accept him for what he is -- an unathletic .260 hitter with great plate discipline and good power when he connects. 

As far as next season is concerned, I think that is one of the reasons Favre/Jenkins was signed to a two-year deal, to protect against him leaving.  He says he wants to stay, and does appear to enjoy it here, but you can look around the league and see that everywhere right before a player leaves for somewhere else for better money--the Phils are probably going to low-ball him because they really want to use savings from his salary coming off the books to pay for the increases in salary Utley, Ryan Howard, and Cole Hamels are due.
 
The Phils have some great young pitching, but they aren't known for their upper-level prospects.  What's your take on the minor league system, and is there anybody we should be watching for in the second half?

It's hard for me to see any Phillies prospect having an impact this year, perhaps maybe pitchers Josh Outman or Andrew Carpenter, but even they are at AA.  One player I would watch is Greg Golson, a five-tool outfielder that finally seems to be getting it after being drafted in 2004.  He probably won't make it to the big club at all because they want him playing everyday, and rightly so, but he ripped the cover off the ball in spring training and has a .390 OBP so far in the early going, which is tremendous given how strikezone illiterate he was up to this point.

Thanks Tom!

Also, Tom asked me some questions.  Not that you need to hear any more of what I have to say, but if you are so inclined, here's the link .

Good morning. With 12 wins in our first 20, we're sitting two back of the Cubs and half a game back of the Cardinals. Tonight, we open a two game series against Geoff Jenkins and the Phillies. Time for a Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason odds putting the Brewers at 84.8 wins with a 21% chance of winning the Central.

As you've most likely heard, following yesterday's game Gabe Gross was traded to Tampa for a warm body who's struggling in A ball. Brewers Bar has a nice farewell post. I still think Gabe will be a productive everyday outfielder somewhere, but I know it wasn't going to be here, so I'm glad to see him getting a chance somewhere else.

All of a sudden, there's rumblings that Eric Gagne might be pulled from the closer's spot. Admittedly, I'm not real excited about his performance yesterday, but Gagne had pitched in four straight games and warmed up in the fifth straight on Monday before pitching in the sixth game Tuesday. I don't think any closer would pitch exceptionally well in that situation. I think the Gagne signing was a mistake and his most effective days are past him, but pulling him now would be a mistake too.

Speaking of struggling relievers, apparently Ned's not done with Turnbow.

If you're looking for the whiniest possible recap of yesterday's game, Bugs and Cranks has it. Bring your violin.

The chatter around Fielder's new diet must be getting louder in the clubhouse, because now even Ned Yost is commenting on it.

Dugout Central says Brewer fans are the unluckiest in baseball. They make a decent case. But, with that said, Midwest Airlines seems to value them more than most customers.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Josh Beckett was scratched from yesterday's game with a stiff neck.
Orlando Hernandez will be in a boot for two more weeks and still can't throw the banana.
Rangers P Dustin Nippert has been placed on the DL with a sore right foot.
Indians P Jake Westbrook is on the DL with a rib cage strain.
Mariners OF Brad Wilkerson was pulled from yesterday's game with a sore hamstring.

Cubs GM Jim Hendry has advanced to the second round of Bucs Dugout's Worst GM Tournament, and now faces Astros GM Ed Wade in the second round. Go cast a vote, if you're so inclined.

Could Charlie Manuel have been a Civil War General? Tim McCarver seems to think so.

That's all for today. If you have an item for inclusion in tomorrow's Mug, drop it in the comments. Drink up.

If you didn't follow the comments in the Game Thread today, you might not have noticed: Geoff Jenkins batted leadoff today for the Phillies.  Yes, that Geoff Jenkins.

He had plenty of fun with the idea:

"I told [Manuel] I had to have the green light. He said, 'Hey ... no,'" said Jenkins, who stole a career-high 11 bases in 12 attempts in 2000. "They say you can see something in this game you've never seen. I just saw it. But hey, we have a glitch in the system right now. A few guys are banged up and we have to pick up the slack. That's what good teams do.

"I'm Rickey Henderson."

You will not be surprised to learn that Jenkins had never led off before. 

Naturally, he struck out in his first at-bat.  He did manage a couple of singles, and if he had been a bit more productive, MAYBE THE CUBS WOULD HAVE LOST!  Thanks a lot, Jinxie.