Sal Baxamusa at the Hardball Times recently published a very useful tool: downloadable Excel spreadsheets that produce Marcel projections for players. Marcels are basically weighted averages and are surprisingly competitive with advanced projection systems like PECOTA or ZiPS. For our purposes--predicting the most likely immediate future performance to evaluate, for instance, whether we should get a new second baseman--Marcel will do just fine. So, let's see what we've got:

Jason Kendall

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.258	.339	.333
Balance	.259	.330	.329
Total	.258	.334	.331

Prince Fielder

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.270	.357	.488
Balance	.282	.374	.531
Total	.275	.364	.507

Rickie Weeks

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.217	.320	.367
Balance	.247	.357	.409
Total	.231	.335	.386

Bill Hall

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.234	.294	.431
Balance	.260	.326	.465
Total	.246	.308	.446

Russell Branyan

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.245	.331	.604
Balance	.236	.332	.469
Total	.239	.332	.515

J.J. Hardy

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.283	.352	.476
Balance	.273	.335	.448
Total	.279	.343	.463

Ryan Braun

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.286	.324	.549
Balance	.303	.354	.567
Total	.293	.337	.556

Mike Cameron

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.231	.320	.481
Balance	.246	.329	.443
Total	.240	.325	.461

Gabe Kapler

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.315	.352	.517
Balance	.272	.332	.425
Total	.294	.341	.471

Corey Hart

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.289	.327	.504
Balance	.285	.340	.496
Total	.287	.331	.501

Ben Sheets

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	2.85	123	109	108	28	1.11
Balance	3.47	87	81	71	22	1.18
Total	3.11	210	190	179	50	1.14

CC Sabathia

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	3.67	137.3	130	137	40	124
Balance	3.21	98	94	86	25	1.22
Total	3.48	235	224	223	65	1.23

Jeff Suppan

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	4.71	101.3	118	55	44	1.60
Balance	4.44	72	82	42	27	1.52
Total	4.60	173	200	97	71	1.57

Manny Parra

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	3.78	100	99	78	50	1.49
Balance	3.98	71	70	57	31	1.42
Total	3.86	171	169	135	81	1.46

Dave Bush

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	4.39	106.7	97	66	26	1.15
Balance	4.19	76	76	52	19	1.25
Total	4.30	182	173	118	45	1.19

Son of Clung

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	4.16	75.7	66	64	36	1.35
Balance	4.53	54	51	40	24	1.40
Total	4.32	129	117	104	60	1.37

I'm not exactly an authority on grit, but it was about time someone named an All-Grit Team.  All-Star Week seemed appropriate. 

• C Jason Kendall
• 1B Platoon: Doug Mientkiwicz / Kevin Millar
• 2B Mark Grudzielanek
• 3B Ryan Freel
• SS David Eckstein
• LF Scott Podsednik
• CF Aaron Rowand
• RF Eric Byrnes

If a DH were needed, the all-grit team would do one of two things:

• Bat the pitcher, because truly gritty players are throwbacks to when pitchers could hit for themselves
• Go with Willie Bloomquist.

The bench is a little unbalanced--in addition to the eight starters, 1B platoon, and Bloomquist, that leaves four or five spots.  Again, these guys are throwbacks, so a 10-man pitching staff would have to do the job.  That leaves two roster spots for Craig Counsell (team captain) and Nick Punto and three more for backup catchers.  Doesn't really matter which ones, though I think Paul Bako has to be on the team. 

It doesn't matter that there aren't any backup outfielders, because any truly gritty player can play anywhere in the diamond.  In that sense, there are twelve backup outfielders.  Similarly, it doesn't really matter which outfielders are assigned to which position, since any of the three could play center, but they, of course, will play wherever they're needed.

I haven't figured out what to do about the pitching staff, since pitchers aren't generally considered gritty in the same way that position players are.  It seems that gritty pitchers are generally guys who have hung on past their prime (like Jamie Moyer) or lefty relievers (like Brian Shouse) or both.

You may note that I didn't include a batting lineup--the list above is just the fielding alignment.  That's going to be a serious problem for manager Gabe Kapler--left to their own devices, everyone on this team would bat second.

To listen to the announcers last night and read the paper the last few days, you'd think that we left center field and the number two spot empty for the first 25 games, just waiting to get Mike Cameron back so that we could really start our season.

Cameron's a good player, and he's definitely better than the alternatives.  Yes, even Gabe Kapler.  But let's be reasonable and try to get a sense of how much Cameron is likely to help this team.

Oddly enough, one possible answer is: Not very much.

Granted, Kapler and Tony Gwynn probably played above their heads, but including last night's game (because I'm lazy), the aggregate center field line for the Brewers so far is 294/342/451.  That's pretty darn good for center field--in fact, it's as far above average for the position as any other position on the club.  (I know, that isn't saying much.)  Even more impressive when you consider it included 44 PAs of Gabe Gross's sub-300 SLG, and 1 PA of Hernan Iribarren's OPS of zero.

Click over to FanGraphs if you want to see a whole bunch of projections for Cameron.  My system of choice, ZiPS, gives Cameron a 254/341/447 line.  In other words, basically the same as we've gotten so far.

As I've said, we couldn't have expected the platoon (Kaplynn?) to keep producing at that level, but at the plate, Cameron is probably not going to give us a boost. 

If you want to compare Cameron's offense to what he is replacing on the '07 team, we'll have to look back at the glory days of the Menchkins platoon.  Hall and Braun are probably going to give us about what they gave us last year (more of Braun, but probably not quite so phenomenal), so on offense, Cameron steps in for the left fielders.

Last year, the two-headed monster gave us production of 261/318/453.  It's a little worse than the Cameron projections, but not enough to make a big difference.  So again, at the plate, acquiring Cameron is a wash.  (On the field, anyway; off the field, Cameron is cheaper than Menchkins was, uses one fewer roster spot, and doesn't require special hat orders.)

Of course, I've gotten an awful long ways into a discussion of Mike Cameron without touching on his defense.  I guess I saved the best for last.

As you all probably know, Cameron is an elite defender.  Defensive metrics make it hard to anoint a winner, but he is possibly the best center fielder in baseball.  According to RZR (leaders in 2007 , or 2006), he's among the top few in the league along with Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran, and Juan Pierre.  (RZR doesn't take outfield arms into effect.)

Another data point: according to MGL's proprietary Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) system, Cameron was among the top CFs from 2000-2003 , as well.  (You'll have to scroll down to find the CFs.)  In fact, in that span, he's the highest-rated player who was a regular for the better part of those four years.  I wouldn't put too much stock in 5-8 year old defensive data--guys slow down, even guys who take a lot of stimulants--but it shows that the 06-07 data is no fluke.

There's no good way to know whether Kapler and Gwynn would have been as good in the field as Cameron will be; we just won't accumulate the data.  (*Someone* might have play-by-play and hit location data for Gwynn's time in the minors, but *someone* is kind of lazy in crunching the numbers.) 

As I noted in my article about defense earlier this week, the outfield has been strong, and it seems like a good bet that Ryan Braun is not to blame for that.  So as the conventional wisdom would indicate, Kapler is a pretty good defensive center fielder, though almost certainly not in the same league as Cameron.

So...that's what we have to expect from our shiny new toy.  He's not our savior--there are a lot of other bats in the lineup that have to play that role right now--but he is a key part of the offseason plan that turned the Brewers into what is most likely a solid defensive team.

So, as Jeff mentioned in yesterday's Plastic Cup, I was on the road yesterday. A brief anecdote from the road:

The fiancee and I were traveling together yesterday, and my last item of business was finished a couple of hours before hers. So there I was, in the back of a coffee shop, headphones in, listening to the Brewers, waiting for the call that would say "it's time to go." I tuned in around the time Manny Parra was exiting. I spent about 4 innings wishing she would hurry up and call, as the game was...well, less than encouraging. But I was there when Prince's double tied it in the 8th, and I was trying hard not to make a scene when Ryan Braun singled to lead off the 10th...

And the phone rang. "Ok, I'm ready for you to pick me up." I reluctantly packed my things, walked to the parking garage, and by the time XM Radio could pick up reception, it was 5-3 in the bottom of the 10th. Not only did I miss Prince's first home run, I didn't even know that's how they scored until the post-game show. Hopefully I'll catch about 50 more of them this season to even it out.

Win Expectancy Graph
Baseball Reference Box Score
ESPN Video Highlights
Baseball Digest Daily Recaps

With the win, Baseball Prospectus' Postseason Odds have the Brewers winning exactly 81 games, with a 16.2% chance of winning the Central.

All kinds of stuff about Prince following the game:

Tom H. has Fielder's postgame quotes.
Home Run Derby named it Home Run of the Day.
In-Between Hops notes the Fielder is even with his home run pace from last year, but would need to hit 4 in his next 5 games to keep it up.
Baseball Musings notes that, before the HR, 7 of Prince's 13 hits had come with runners in scoring position.
Yahoo has a photo of Prince rounding the bases.

Also, if you're looking for quotes from the Cardinals regarding yesterday's game, Fungoes has a wealth of them.

Bugs and Cranks has a nice review of the situation at the back end of the rotation, with Bush, Villanueva and Parra holding spots and Gallardo looking for one.

Speaking of Villanueva, John Sickels has an in depth look at him.

He's had one at bat in the last three days, but Ken Rosenthal still can't get enough Gabe Kapler.

Forbes has released their annual valuations of all 30 MLB teams. The Brewers rank 24th.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Erik Bedard may have torn cartilage in his hip. I'm not sure what that means for his return.
Carlos Beltran missed last night's 14-inning marathon with a stiff neck.
Rangers OF Marlon Byrd has been placed on the DL with a sore knee.
Braves reliever Peter Moylan is out for the season with a bone spur pressing against the UCL in his elbow.
Rays reliever Al Reyes is on the DL with an impinged shoulder.
Richie Sexson will miss a game or two with nagging shoulder and leg pain.
Miguel Tejada isn't hurt, but he sure is aging fast.

Speaking of things that'll make you age fast, the Rockies and Padres played 22 innings last night. Even Fangraphs gave up after 17.

Two stories out there today showing Cub fans in a (well deserved?) negative light: First, via Redleg Nation, I found this clip of Marty Brennaman's reaction to Cub fans throwing dozens of balls on the field following a home run. Also, Fukudome's reaction to a racist t-shirt being sold by vendors outside Wrigley is a must read. I know a lot of very bright, intelligent Cubs fans that are a credit to their franchise...it's just unfortunate they seem to be in the minority.

Bucs Dugout continues their search for baseball's worst GM. Polls are open right now for Omar Minaya v. Jim Hendry and Ken Williams v. Wayne Krivsky.

Gaslamp Ball wants to hear about your favorite baseball books.

Finally, in response to a question asked in the game thread a couple of nights ago, TheJay has compiled a list of the last players to wear #42 for every franchise. Scott Karl was the last Brewer, and also the last Rockie. Interestingly enough, Mo Vaughn was the last player to wear #42 for three teams.

That's all for today. I'm back on the road in a few hours, so Jeff will be filling in again tomorrow and Sunday. If you have something to submit for inclusion in a future Mug, please post it in the comments. Drink up.

Morning. Let's skip talking about last night's game and the standings and get right into the Mug.

Last night's Win Expectancy Graph
Baseball Reference Box Score
Baseball Digest Daily Recaps
ESPN Video Highlights

With the loss, BP's win projection for the Brewers dropped four tenths to 81.7, but their odds of winning the NL Central, interestingly enough, went up four tenths to 17.4%.

Gabe Kapler Gabe Kapler Gabe Kapler. Both ESPN Video and Sports Illustrated are talking about him, ironically enough on the same day he ran into the wall in BP and was scratched from the lineup. The ESPN interview might be the most awkward professional interview I've seen in quite some time.

Gaslamp Ball has opened up a debate, once again, on batting the pitcher 8th. Fungoes takes it in a new direction and asks "Why bat the pitcher at all?"

Ryan Braun was given the day off yesterday to "relax." I don't know about you, but watching my team lose while Joe Dillon hit in my spot in the lineup wouldn't be relaxing for me. Maybe he had a drink with an umbrella in it.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Erik Bedard's hip will land him on the DL. The DL Informer thinks it could be serious.
Indians P Joe Borowski is headed to the DL with chronic ineffectiveness a strained tricep.
Twins SS Adam Everett will have his shoulder examined by team doctors today, and missed last night's game.
Nats C Paul Lo Duca missed last night's game after being hit in the hand with a pitch Sunday.
Kevin Millwood had to leave his most recent start with a bruised shin.
Braves P Peter Moylan is on the DL with an elbow strain severe enough to send him to Dr. James Andrews.
Alfonso Soriano strained his calf hopping to catch a fly ball last night, and is day-to-day.

Who knows if he can consistently catch anymore, but rumor has it the Reds are interested in signing Mike Piazza.

Maybe Dontrelle Willis' hyperextended knee will keep him from driving drunk.

Again, we've gone round and round on Eric Gagne's struggles, but one fact is inarguable: He's pitching much better than Jose Valverde.

The Dodgers are inviting bloggers to meet with club personnel. That's a nice touch. I don't mean to drop hints or anything, but I'd be open to meeting with the Brewers front office staff...y'know, more or less anytime.

And, for the second time this week, if you're looking for work, the Marlins may have your answer. I think it's always dangerous to include phrases like "limited supervision" in the first line of a job description. Maybe that's just me.

If you have something you'd like me to consider for inclusion in a future Mug, be sure to drop it in the comments.

That's all for today. Drink up.

It's Dave Bush against Braden Looper.  The action starts at 7:15 CT.

The Brewers lineup, featuring Kapler against a righty and Dillon subbing for Braun, and if I do say so myself, some of you are seriously overreacting.  We all knew Kapler would start seeing time against righties as long as he kept hitting like this, and Dillon is one sub, giving Braun his first day off of the year. 

It isn't how I would do it, but compared to the "approved" lineup (Gross and Braun instead), we're losing about 3/10 of a run.  And that's assuming that Kapler and Gross both play according to their preseason projections...which at the very least, Ned probably doesn't believe.

Ok, I've stepped down from my pedestal now. 

To see what I had to say in response to 5 questions at Viva El Birdos, click here.  Scroll on down here at BCB if you want to see lboros's answers to mine.  (It's worth it.)  And if you want to drench yourself in situational stats, here's the baseball-reference game preview.

I haven't seen the official Cardinals starting lineup yet, but if they go with the same starting eight that they used against a righty on Saturday night, Project-A-tron says:

• Brewers 4.9
• Cardinals 4.4
• Brewers WinExp: 51%

Also, if TLR stays true to form, we'll have a matchup of pitchers batting eighth.  Not that it matters a whole lot for the Cards--catcher/Kennedy/pitcher/Izturis is just one mass of Triple-A goodness at the plate.  Remarkably, while Izturis and Aaron Miles have gotten 12 of the 13 starts in the 9 hole, the SLG out of the 8 position is higher than that from the 9th.

Go Brewers!

Well, that trip to New York turned out better than I expected. This morning, the Brewers wake up half a game behind the St. Louis Cardinals, in second place all by themselves and enjoying a day off before opening a series with said Cardinals tomorrow. It's time for a Frosty Mug.

Yesterday's Win Expectancy Graph
Baseball Digest Daily recaps
ESPN Video Highlights

Gabe Kapler is all over the web this morning:
Bugs and Cranks chronicles his transition from roster-filler to contributor.
Dave Cameron's first post at Fangraphs was also about Kapler.
Luft on Deck forgot he was still around.

Jim Powell blogged from New York about Sunday's game, Sheets, Gallardo and the lineup switch.

In-Between Hops notes that the Brewers are having moderate success even with all of their top expected run producers hitting under .300, and most hitting under .250.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Erik Bedard was scratched with hip problems again yesterday.
Adrian Beltre was held out of yesterday's M's game with a sore hamstring.
Tom Glavine left yesterday's game in the first inning with a strained hamstring.
Yankees C Jose Molina injured his hamstring last night and had to leave the game. Jorge Posada came in as the emergency backup but still can't throw.

Dayn Perry, whose last column warned us not to get too excited about the Cardinals, wants to make sure we're not too excited about the Orioles, either.

This post at Rowland's Office should make the 29 teams that didn't sign Andruw Jones feel pretty good about themselves.

The Biz of Baseball caught me off guard this morning: They have a list of quotes from Buck Martinez yesterday that provide actual insight into the game of baseball. Color commentators can be more than just a stream of cliches? What a novel concept.

So it turns out that, when the Phillies traded Wes Helms to the Marlins for cash considerations, the "cash" turned out to be a dollar. Then the Phillies paid part of his contract. That seems illogical, but I read it on the internet so it must be true. If it is true, the money wasted would be about the same as the money wasted to tear up the concrete at the new Yankee Stadium to remove a Red Sox jersey.

On a serious note, thoughts and well wishes go out to Maury Brown of The Biz of Baseball, whose son was recently diagnosed with autism. He's asked bloggers from around the web in this post to help promote autism awareness. Read it if you've got a moment and are so inclined.

Now, it's Monday, so I've got polls. First, the BCB ballot for NL Awards in BaseballHappenings.com's webpoll is due at the end of the day today, so go here to vote on the ballot.

The second weekly fan opinion poll has been posted as well, go here to vote. Last week 87 voters participated, I'd like to get it over 100 this week. If you can help promote the poll in any way, please do so.

Here are the results from last week's poll:

• 52% of voters said they are concerned with Bill Hall's strikeout rate.
• 65% of voters were not concerned by David Riske's 4 2/3 IP in the team's first 6 games.
• 55% of voters thought Gabe Kapler should remain on the roster in place of Gabe Gross when Mike Cameron returns, although it's possible a problem with the wording in the question skewed the results. 16% thought Kapler should replace Joe Dillon, and 12% thought he should replace Tony Gwynn.
• 77% of voters thought Yovani Gallardo should replace Dave bush in the rotation when he returns from the DL.
• 93% of voters thought the Brewers made the right move keeping Mike Rivera over Eric Munson and Vinny Rottino.
• Ned Yost's approval rating is at 77%, with 17% unsure and 5% disapproval.
• Doug Melvin's approval rating is at 91%, with 5% unsure and 2% disapproval.
• 95% of voters approve of the decision to sign Cameron and move Hall and Braun.
• 49% of voters approve of the decision to sign Eric Gagne, with 25% unsure and 25% disapproving.
• 37% of voters think the Brewers should wait until after the season to make a contract offer to Ben Sheets. 29% think they should offer him an extension now, 21% think they should not and 10% are unsure.

The full results are here. This week's poll features five new questions but continues to track the approval rating of Yost and Melvin, the fan opinion on the Cameron and Gagne signings and the fan opinion on Sheets' contract situation.

That's all for today. Drink up.

WSB Chris brought it to my attention that when Ryan Braun and Gabe Kapler homered in the same game inning yesterday, it must be a rare--if not one-of-a-kind--occurrence.  As you probably know, both are Jewish, and while there have been plenty of Jewish major leaguers, there haven't been very many sluggers, and certainly not slugging teammates.

(Of course Gabe Kapler isn't a slugger either, early-season results aside.)

Anyway, Chris got in touch with enough people to determine that this is probably the first time that two Jewish players have homered for the same team in the same game.  Now, through one of his new contacts, he's looking for Jewish Brewers fans.  There must be a few of you here, right?

I assume that Chris will be following the comments on this thread, so you can either out yourself here or over at the Wisconsin Sports Bar.

As they say, God works in strange ways...