On the actual value of Mike Cameron
So, as you've likely heard, the Brewers exercised their option for 2009 on Mike Cameron today. Mike Cameron will make $10 million in 2009, $750k of which the Brewers would have been forced to pay him even if they had decided not to keep him, to buy out the option.
Now, $9.25 million is a lot of money. In $100 bills, it would pretty much fill this suitcase.
If you assume the Brewer payroll will be around $90 million next season, give or take depending on free agent signings, Mike Cameron stands to make about 11.1% of the Brewers' total payroll. That number is less than Jeff Suppan (13.8%), only slightly more than Bill Hall (9.3%) and much, much more than Ryan Braun (0.8%).
In several threads discussing the option, there seems to be a percentage of the population that feels like $9.25 million was too much to spend on Cameron, an above-average defensive CF who hit .243/.331/.477 in 2008, his tenth consecutive and eleventh out of twelve season with an OPS+ over 100. I'll agree that $9.25 million is a lot of money, and perhaps more than I'd like to spend, but if not Cameron, then what? Let's take a look down three other paths the Brewers could have pursued:
Option 1: Replace from within
Cost: Cheap. Any two of these guys would cost less than $1 million for 2009.
Six minor leaguers played in at least ten games in center field for either Nashville (AAA) or Huntsville (AA) in 2008. Thanks to Jeff, we can calculate their major league equivalents for 2008 relatively easily. Here are the six, sorted by their MLE OPS:
Laynce Nix (AAA): .238/.287/.429
Lorenzo Cain (AA): .228/.293/.383
Michael Brantley (AA): .264/.322/.323
Hernan Iribarren (AAA): .233/.274/.283
Tony Gwynn (AAA): .231/.272/.274
Freddy Parejo (AA): .233/.248/.289
Of those, Nix is no longer with the organization, Brantley was the PTBNL in the Sabathia deal, and Iribarren has played just 11 games in center field in his career. Lorenzo Cain has played just six games above AA, and only played half of 2008.
So if you want to go really cheap and create the possibility of half innings that go 7-8-9 with Kendall, Cain/Iribarren/Gwynn, Pitcher, that's one option. On Yovani Gallardo's starts he should hit seventh.
Option 2: Sign another free agent to replace Cameron
Cost: Moderate
Could the Brewers bring in another stop-gap centerfielder for less? Possibly. Let's look at the options:
Gabe Kapler, Brewers: There's no guarantee Kapler will be back, as he's coming off a career year and the Red Sox reportedly have interest in him. He's never had 500 AB's in a season, and hasn't even had 500 plate appearances since 2001. He had a career year and a nice comeback in 2008, but spent 2007 out of baseball, and in the five seasons before that he posted OPS+'s of 75, 85, 77, 65 and 77. He's only 33 and coming off a career year, so my guess is he'll sign for either 2 or 3 years at $3.5-$4 million per. If you sign him for that and he either can't physically handle playing full time or is ineffective, then you're back to the options listed above.
Jim Edmonds, Cubs: Came back to hit .256/.369/.568 for the Cubs in part-time duty after a rough start that led to his release in San Diego. He's 39 years old and hasn't appeared in 120 games since 2005. He's almost certainly not capable of playing everyday, but if you'd like to give him a shot I'd guess about $3 million for one year could do it.
Mark Kotsay, Red Sox: Hit /276/.329/.403 for the Braves and Red Sox in 2008. He's a serviceable big league CF with decent experience and while he hasn't reached a 100 OPS+ in any of the last four seasons, he was only truly terrible in one of them. The downside: he made $8 million in 2008, and since he's really the only other everyday option available in free agency, he'll probably get something like 3 years, $27 million, to make him $25k cheaper than Cameron.
Scott Podsednik, Rockies or So Taguchi, Phillies: Podsednik hasn't been a full-timer since 2006. He had a nice comeback in Colorado this year, but still only hit .253/.322/.333. Taquchi hit .220/.283/.297 for the Phillies this season and, at 38 years old, is likely done. Either might take a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Neither should be depended on to provide anything.
Option 3: Move Ryan Braun/Corey Hart to CF and look for a corner outfielder
Cost: Depends on the corner outfielder
CHONE projects Mike Cameron as about three runs above average defensively in center field in 2009. Braun projects at about 7 runs below average in center, and Hart projects at 9. Braun has never played there before, so I'm not sure how reliable that number is. But, assuming one of the two would be 8 runs below average, the new corner outfielder would need to be an average defender and 11 runs better than Mike Cameron offensively to break even.
There are some Brewers that could be a fit here. Brad Nelson (.246/.321/.393 MLE in Nashville) is as close to big league ready as he'll ever get, in all likelihood. Mat Gamel (.273/.326/.430 MLE in Huntsville) could work, and a free agent to fill a corner spot is easier to find than a center fielder. This is probably the most viable of the three options, but it weakens the Brewers a lot defensively, and could mean Ryan Braun's second position change in as many years.
So what do you think? What should the Brewers have done?
Now, $9.25 million is a lot of money. In $100 bills, it would pretty much fill this suitcase.
If you assume the Brewer payroll will be around $90 million next season, give or take depending on free agent signings, Mike Cameron stands to make about 11.1% of the Brewers' total payroll. That number is less than Jeff Suppan (13.8%), only slightly more than Bill Hall (9.3%) and much, much more than Ryan Braun (0.8%).
In several threads discussing the option, there seems to be a percentage of the population that feels like $9.25 million was too much to spend on Cameron, an above-average defensive CF who hit .243/.331/.477 in 2008, his tenth consecutive and eleventh out of twelve season with an OPS+ over 100. I'll agree that $9.25 million is a lot of money, and perhaps more than I'd like to spend, but if not Cameron, then what? Let's take a look down three other paths the Brewers could have pursued:
Option 1: Replace from within
Cost: Cheap. Any two of these guys would cost less than $1 million for 2009.
Six minor leaguers played in at least ten games in center field for either Nashville (AAA) or Huntsville (AA) in 2008. Thanks to Jeff, we can calculate their major league equivalents for 2008 relatively easily. Here are the six, sorted by their MLE OPS:
Laynce Nix (AAA): .238/.287/.429
Lorenzo Cain (AA): .228/.293/.383
Michael Brantley (AA): .264/.322/.323
Hernan Iribarren (AAA): .233/.274/.283
Tony Gwynn (AAA): .231/.272/.274
Freddy Parejo (AA): .233/.248/.289
Of those, Nix is no longer with the organization, Brantley was the PTBNL in the Sabathia deal, and Iribarren has played just 11 games in center field in his career. Lorenzo Cain has played just six games above AA, and only played half of 2008.
So if you want to go really cheap and create the possibility of half innings that go 7-8-9 with Kendall, Cain/Iribarren/Gwynn, Pitcher, that's one option. On Yovani Gallardo's starts he should hit seventh.
Option 2: Sign another free agent to replace Cameron
Cost: Moderate
Could the Brewers bring in another stop-gap centerfielder for less? Possibly. Let's look at the options:
Gabe Kapler, Brewers: There's no guarantee Kapler will be back, as he's coming off a career year and the Red Sox reportedly have interest in him. He's never had 500 AB's in a season, and hasn't even had 500 plate appearances since 2001. He had a career year and a nice comeback in 2008, but spent 2007 out of baseball, and in the five seasons before that he posted OPS+'s of 75, 85, 77, 65 and 77. He's only 33 and coming off a career year, so my guess is he'll sign for either 2 or 3 years at $3.5-$4 million per. If you sign him for that and he either can't physically handle playing full time or is ineffective, then you're back to the options listed above.
Jim Edmonds, Cubs: Came back to hit .256/.369/.568 for the Cubs in part-time duty after a rough start that led to his release in San Diego. He's 39 years old and hasn't appeared in 120 games since 2005. He's almost certainly not capable of playing everyday, but if you'd like to give him a shot I'd guess about $3 million for one year could do it.
Mark Kotsay, Red Sox: Hit /276/.329/.403 for the Braves and Red Sox in 2008. He's a serviceable big league CF with decent experience and while he hasn't reached a 100 OPS+ in any of the last four seasons, he was only truly terrible in one of them. The downside: he made $8 million in 2008, and since he's really the only other everyday option available in free agency, he'll probably get something like 3 years, $27 million, to make him $25k cheaper than Cameron.
Scott Podsednik, Rockies or So Taguchi, Phillies: Podsednik hasn't been a full-timer since 2006. He had a nice comeback in Colorado this year, but still only hit .253/.322/.333. Taquchi hit .220/.283/.297 for the Phillies this season and, at 38 years old, is likely done. Either might take a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Neither should be depended on to provide anything.
Option 3: Move Ryan Braun/Corey Hart to CF and look for a corner outfielder
Cost: Depends on the corner outfielder
CHONE projects Mike Cameron as about three runs above average defensively in center field in 2009. Braun projects at about 7 runs below average in center, and Hart projects at 9. Braun has never played there before, so I'm not sure how reliable that number is. But, assuming one of the two would be 8 runs below average, the new corner outfielder would need to be an average defender and 11 runs better than Mike Cameron offensively to break even.
There are some Brewers that could be a fit here. Brad Nelson (.246/.321/.393 MLE in Nashville) is as close to big league ready as he'll ever get, in all likelihood. Mat Gamel (.273/.326/.430 MLE in Huntsville) could work, and a free agent to fill a corner spot is easier to find than a center fielder. This is probably the most viable of the three options, but it weakens the Brewers a lot defensively, and could mean Ryan Braun's second position change in as many years.
So what do you think? What should the Brewers have done?
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Friday's Frosty Mug
Well, at least now we know for sure Jason Kendall will be back for 2009. He made his 100th start yesterday, vesting his option for next year at $4.25 million. He celebrated the milestone by picking up one single in 4 plate appearances yesterday, raising his OPS to .645.
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
Now that it's been 10 days and the ensuing winning streak is over, can we finally stop talking about Prince Fielder shoving Manny Parra? Baseball Digest Daily called it "The Shove of Inspiration."
Two-fisted Slopper isn't buying the hype on a possible 2008 return for Yovani Gallardo. Maybe there aren't enough innings to go around, but if a guy with a career 132 ERA+ wants to come back and try to pitch, I'm guessing the Brewers can find an opportunity for him from time to time.
Cardinals Diaspora is waving the white flag. They no longer think the Redbirds can catch the Brewers or the Cubs. In the meantime, The Cub Reporter asks if the Cubs should tank the NL Central to set up a more favorable playoff matchup.
Last night I was in attendance as the Iowa Cubs (managed by Pat Listach) defeated the New Orleans Zephyrs 6-3. Today, The Official Site's "Where are they now?" feature caught up with the former Rookie of the Year.
I may have been a little too hard on Big League Stew yesterday. They recently added a tattoo combining the retro logo and the Grateful Dead logo to their collection. Love or hate the retro logo, it's cool ink.
On injuries:
Blue Jays RP Scott Downs will be out at least a few more days with a rolled ankle, but may avoid the DL.
Yankees RP Dan Giese has rotator cuff tendinitis and should hit the DL any minute now.
Angels SS Maicer Izturis has an injured thumb that has kept him out of action for most of the last 10 days.
Troy Percival left yesterday's game after spraining his knee fielding a bunt. Grant Balfour came in and blew the save for him.
Aaron Rowand left last night's game with a back injury.
Brad Penny has been placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
Aramis Ramirez suffered a hip contusion and had to leave last night's game.
Dodgers RP Cory Wade has been placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
Padres SP Chris Young has been placed on the DL with a forearm strain.
Via Skyking162, I found this Lookout Landing post gathering way more stuff than I have time to read on the topic of statistical analysis in baseball. Years ago a professor friend of mine asked if I thought there would be enough interest to do a semester class on baseball statistics. Dan, if you're reading, there's your textbook.
Today is the last day to sign 2008 draft picks. Marc Hulet of Baseball Analysts has a nice roundup of what's remaining to be done.
It appears the Giants might have a hard time signing their top pick, Yonder Alonso, as he has an invitation on the table to play in the Atlantic League and live with Alex Rodriguez.
It looks like Zach Jackson had a solid but unspectacular debut with the Indians: He gave up three runs on eight hits in five innings and did not factor in the decision in Cleveland's 11-6 loss to the Orioles.
The Cubs did win yesterday, but they did it despite the efforts of Mark Kotsay, who was the first Brave in 21 years to hit for the cycle.
Oh, and this guy posted something unintelligible in the comments of a Youtube clip. (h/t Aaron Gleeman)
Drink up.
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
Now that it's been 10 days and the ensuing winning streak is over, can we finally stop talking about Prince Fielder shoving Manny Parra? Baseball Digest Daily called it "The Shove of Inspiration."
Two-fisted Slopper isn't buying the hype on a possible 2008 return for Yovani Gallardo. Maybe there aren't enough innings to go around, but if a guy with a career 132 ERA+ wants to come back and try to pitch, I'm guessing the Brewers can find an opportunity for him from time to time.
Cardinals Diaspora is waving the white flag. They no longer think the Redbirds can catch the Brewers or the Cubs. In the meantime, The Cub Reporter asks if the Cubs should tank the NL Central to set up a more favorable playoff matchup.
Last night I was in attendance as the Iowa Cubs (managed by Pat Listach) defeated the New Orleans Zephyrs 6-3. Today, The Official Site's "Where are they now?" feature caught up with the former Rookie of the Year.
I may have been a little too hard on Big League Stew yesterday. They recently added a tattoo combining the retro logo and the Grateful Dead logo to their collection. Love or hate the retro logo, it's cool ink.
On injuries:
Blue Jays RP Scott Downs will be out at least a few more days with a rolled ankle, but may avoid the DL.
Yankees RP Dan Giese has rotator cuff tendinitis and should hit the DL any minute now.
Angels SS Maicer Izturis has an injured thumb that has kept him out of action for most of the last 10 days.
Troy Percival left yesterday's game after spraining his knee fielding a bunt. Grant Balfour came in and blew the save for him.
Aaron Rowand left last night's game with a back injury.
Brad Penny has been placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
Aramis Ramirez suffered a hip contusion and had to leave last night's game.
Dodgers RP Cory Wade has been placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
Padres SP Chris Young has been placed on the DL with a forearm strain.
Via Skyking162, I found this Lookout Landing post gathering way more stuff than I have time to read on the topic of statistical analysis in baseball. Years ago a professor friend of mine asked if I thought there would be enough interest to do a semester class on baseball statistics. Dan, if you're reading, there's your textbook.
Today is the last day to sign 2008 draft picks. Marc Hulet of Baseball Analysts has a nice roundup of what's remaining to be done.
It appears the Giants might have a hard time signing their top pick, Yonder Alonso, as he has an invitation on the table to play in the Atlantic League and live with Alex Rodriguez.
It looks like Zach Jackson had a solid but unspectacular debut with the Indians: He gave up three runs on eight hits in five innings and did not factor in the decision in Cleveland's 11-6 loss to the Orioles.
The Cubs did win yesterday, but they did it despite the efforts of Mark Kotsay, who was the first Brave in 21 years to hit for the cycle.
Oh, and this guy posted something unintelligible in the comments of a Youtube clip. (h/t Aaron Gleeman)
Drink up.
25 comments | 0 recs
Monday's Frosty Mug
So, Mike Rivera is batting .500 since I suggested he should play more. I know it's a small sample size (4-for-8), but it'd be a bigger sample size if he played more.
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
Thanks to Jeff for allowing you to drink straight from the tap with the Win Expectancy Graphs and BR Box Scores over the weekend.
Jim Powell blogged after Saturday's game. He's pretty excited about the homestand so far, and reasonably so.
He also mentions the massive home run Russell Branyan hit Saturday. I was at the game (my first of the season), and from my perspective, it didn't look like the ball actually made the Dew Deck. It looked like it hit near the back of the second deck. Unfortunately, at the ballpark I only got to see it once, and at game speed. Anyone have access to it on video?
Following Saturday's game, Ned Yost took a beating from Beyond the Box Score for allowing Ben Sheets to throw 120 pitches. I understand the logic at play here, but I find myself agreeing with the first commenter, who notes that everything would've been fine if not for the 11 pitch at bat with Lance Berkman, with two outs in the ninth.
Also Sheets related: Another Baseball Blog takes a look at Sheets' hitting and how it impacts a game. He estimates that the difference between Gallardo's hitting (near elite) and Sheets' hitting (near inept) is equivalent to about a .30 difference in ERA. If the swing from top to bottom is that small, maybe I've spent too much time worrying about pitcher hitting.
Dave Pinto notes that Brewer starters are 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA over their last 7 starts. It's probably a little early to say our pitching woes are over, but this is certainly an improvement.
Here's an interesting new stat: The Beane Count. It tracks home runs and walks, by hitters and pitchers, and combines them to form one number to evaluate. The Brewers rank 13th in the NL at present. I rank somewhere near dead last in being able to explain new stats.
While I'm on the topic of interesting stats, Recondite Baseball takes a look at the all time highest and lowest BABIP numbers. Most of these guys aren't huge surprises, but somehow, Gorman Thomas cracked the list on the low end, at #18. How did that happen?
On injuries:
Twins P Nick Blackburn is fine, amazingly, after being hit in the face by a line drive. He may not miss a start.
Hank Blalock had carpal tunnel surgery Friday and will miss at least another month.
J.D. Drew missed a start over the weekend with vertigo.
Padres P Shawn Estes broke his thumb falling down the stairs. The bad jokes here can only escalate.
Angels IF Chone Figgins has been placed on the DL with irritation in his hamstring.
Reds P Josh Fogg has been placed on the DL with a bad back.
Travis Hafner has been placed on the DL with a sore shoulder.
D-Backs 1B Conor Jackson will be out for a few days with a strained quad.
Braves OF Mark Kotsay has been placed on the DL with a strained lower back.
David Ortiz felt something pop in his wrist Saturday and will (maybe already did?) undergo an MRI.
The Brewers aren't the only team that can't win on the road. At The Book blog, MGL notes that the homefield advantage this year is significantly higher than average, and offers some reasons why.
Dugout Central notes a moment from Friday that's indicative of the problem MLB has with confrontational umpires:
If this works out, it'll set a dangerous precedent: Last week, the Braves designated backup C Brayan Pena for assignment, and placed him on waivers, presumably hoping to send him to the minors. The Royals claimed him off waivers, kept him on their roster for a day, then DFA'd him again, hoping to send him to the minors as well. If this is possible, couldn't Pena be claimed and DFA'd by teams needing a AAA catcher every few days for months?
Here's something new to check periodically: Baseball Musings has a daily chart showing the probability Chipper Jones will hit .400.
Oh, and here's some fun with misheard lyrics.
Drink up.
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
Thanks to Jeff for allowing you to drink straight from the tap with the Win Expectancy Graphs and BR Box Scores over the weekend.
Jim Powell blogged after Saturday's game. He's pretty excited about the homestand so far, and reasonably so.
He also mentions the massive home run Russell Branyan hit Saturday. I was at the game (my first of the season), and from my perspective, it didn't look like the ball actually made the Dew Deck. It looked like it hit near the back of the second deck. Unfortunately, at the ballpark I only got to see it once, and at game speed. Anyone have access to it on video?
Following Saturday's game, Ned Yost took a beating from Beyond the Box Score for allowing Ben Sheets to throw 120 pitches. I understand the logic at play here, but I find myself agreeing with the first commenter, who notes that everything would've been fine if not for the 11 pitch at bat with Lance Berkman, with two outs in the ninth.
Also Sheets related: Another Baseball Blog takes a look at Sheets' hitting and how it impacts a game. He estimates that the difference between Gallardo's hitting (near elite) and Sheets' hitting (near inept) is equivalent to about a .30 difference in ERA. If the swing from top to bottom is that small, maybe I've spent too much time worrying about pitcher hitting.
Dave Pinto notes that Brewer starters are 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA over their last 7 starts. It's probably a little early to say our pitching woes are over, but this is certainly an improvement.
Here's an interesting new stat: The Beane Count. It tracks home runs and walks, by hitters and pitchers, and combines them to form one number to evaluate. The Brewers rank 13th in the NL at present. I rank somewhere near dead last in being able to explain new stats.
While I'm on the topic of interesting stats, Recondite Baseball takes a look at the all time highest and lowest BABIP numbers. Most of these guys aren't huge surprises, but somehow, Gorman Thomas cracked the list on the low end, at #18. How did that happen?
On injuries:
Twins P Nick Blackburn is fine, amazingly, after being hit in the face by a line drive. He may not miss a start.
Hank Blalock had carpal tunnel surgery Friday and will miss at least another month.
J.D. Drew missed a start over the weekend with vertigo.
Padres P Shawn Estes broke his thumb falling down the stairs. The bad jokes here can only escalate.
Angels IF Chone Figgins has been placed on the DL with irritation in his hamstring.
Reds P Josh Fogg has been placed on the DL with a bad back.
Travis Hafner has been placed on the DL with a sore shoulder.
D-Backs 1B Conor Jackson will be out for a few days with a strained quad.
Braves OF Mark Kotsay has been placed on the DL with a strained lower back.
David Ortiz felt something pop in his wrist Saturday and will (maybe already did?) undergo an MRI.
The Brewers aren't the only team that can't win on the road. At The Book blog, MGL notes that the homefield advantage this year is significantly higher than average, and offers some reasons why.
Dugout Central notes a moment from Friday that's indicative of the problem MLB has with confrontational umpires:
In Friday’s game, the home plate umpire, Andy Fletcher, made an emphatic strike three call to Coco Crisp in the ninth inning. The pitch he called actually made the count 3-2. When Coco questioned him if he knew what the count was, Fletcher took off his mask and started screaming at Crisp. Tito came out and the umpire took the offensive with him as well. Instead of acknowledging his gaffe and apologizing, Fletcher acted like one of the arrogant men who seem to have taken over the umpiring profession.
Seriously, aside from professional wrestling, is there another major sport where this would be tolerated?
If this works out, it'll set a dangerous precedent: Last week, the Braves designated backup C Brayan Pena for assignment, and placed him on waivers, presumably hoping to send him to the minors. The Royals claimed him off waivers, kept him on their roster for a day, then DFA'd him again, hoping to send him to the minors as well. If this is possible, couldn't Pena be claimed and DFA'd by teams needing a AAA catcher every few days for months?
Here's something new to check periodically: Baseball Musings has a daily chart showing the probability Chipper Jones will hit .400.
Oh, and here's some fun with misheard lyrics.
Drink up.
25 comments | 0 recs
















