Some things to read instead of simulating a universe with rocks.

So if you missed the announcement yesterday, I decided to go ahead and create the Brew Crew Ball WhatifSports League. If you have no idea what I'm talking about, click this link for an explanation. There are only 12 teams in the league and two have already been created, so if you want one of the 10 remaining spots, click the first link soon.

As the trade market continues to swirl, you may find yourself wondering, "Has anyone ever created a database featuring every trade Doug Melvin has ever made as a major league general manager?" Yes, someone has.

There are more than a handful of free agent predictions out there today, so I'll just dump them into bullet points and you can decide for yourself what's worth noting:

• Fire Brand of the American League predicts the Brewers will pick up Jeremy Affeldt and Brad Penny, and has the Brewers as the runner-up to land Juan Cruz and Jon Garland.
• The Pinstriper has the Brewers signing Brad Penny, Juan Cruz, Jeremy Affeldt, Russell Branyan and Brad Wilkerson.
• Baseball Blogging Network says the Brewers would be a good fit for Trevor Hoffman. So does FakeTeams.
• A monkey drawing names and teams out of a plastic cup thinks CC Sabathia will be a Marlin.

Let's move right into a Sabathia Smorgasbord:

• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs estimates Sabathia's value at 6 years, $162 million.
• Blue Jays beat writer Jordan Bastian says the Yankees' big offer to Sabathia could impact the Jays' negotiations with A.J. Burnett.
• Chone Smith has a projection for the 2009 Yankees that includes Sabathia, Burnett AND Derek Lowe.
• The Mets reportedly are not pursuing Sabathia after all.
• Sabathia received one vote in ESPN's NL MVP balloting.
• Oh, it's THOSE Girls has made a list of pros and cons for Sabathia to consider before signing or not signing in New York.

Staying on the mound, there are a few notes out there regarding Ben Sheets. Crawfish Boxes has combined predictions for the Astros for 2009 and the monetary value of a win to make the case that, in Houston, signing Ben Sheets could pay for itself. USS Mariner thinks the Mariners should also be keeping a close eye on him. Finally, Recondite Baseball noted that Sheets was one of only twelve pitchers since 1990 to post a season with a WHIP under 1 and pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. (Sheets did it in 2004)

Will the Brewers trade one high priced, high injury risk pitcher for another? Adam McCalvy says the Brewers are not a likely candidate to sign Kerry Wood. Neither are the Tigers.

On defense: Baseball Musings Probabilistic Model of Range has the Brewers 23rd in baseball in first base defense, and Prince Fielder well below average at 95.26. On the flip side, Brewer catchers ranked first, and Jason Kendall was the best full-time defensive catcher in all of baseball at 109.97. It's worth noting that a measure of range isn't really the complete picture on catcher defense.

Two prospect notes today: The Official Site has another look at Lorenzo Cain's impressive season in the AFL, and Hot-prospects.net thinks the Brewers will have Brent Brewer play in Brevard County for the third straight season in 2009.

Elsewhere, around the hot stove:

A's: Might be looking to trade Bobby Crosby.
Braves: Are reportedly out of the running for Jake Peavy but may have interest in A.J. Burnett.
Cardinals: Are reportedly making left-handed relief and shortstop a priority.
Cubs: May consider offering a deal to Randy Johnson.

As Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood, Trevor Hoffman and others continue to sit on the free agent market, Big League Stew asks when everyone started hating closers. The answer is pretty resounding: "When they started asking for 5/$75 deals."

Does the ball fly differently at Miller Park based on the month? Beyond the Box Score did the math and the answer, perhaps surprisingly, is yes.

FanGraphs has resurrected their "Get to know a stat" series. The first two up this time are First pitch strike percentage and outside swing percentage.

Looking for something to do in between Mugs? Apparently MLB.com is hiring. I think I may polish my resume a bit today.

Oh, and as someone witnessing way too much wedding planning, seeing virtually every picture taken at Chad Cordero's wedding was a bit more than I needed this morning.

Drink up.

Some things to read while staring out the window waiting for spring.

As noted in the FanShots, the NL Gold Gloves were handed out yesterday. No Brewers were selected. Meanwhile, Baseball Musings' Probabilistic Model of Range ranks Brewer shortstops first in all of baseball, and J.J. Hardy as the best full-time defensive shortstop in baseball. The first award will get more publicity, but the second one is the one with the actual correlation to being good at defense. Rollins, by the way, was about the sixth best full-time shortstop.

While we're on the subject of awards, here's two more: CC Sabathia finished fourth in the voting, behind Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and Brandon Webb in the SB Nation NL Cy Young Voting. Sabathia took third, behind Lincecum and Santana, in Baseball Prospectus' awards.

Also, as noted in the FanShots, CC Sabathia is still telling friends he won't play in New York.

As I write this, 72% of voters in the poll think bringing Mike Cameron back for 2009 was the right decision, with 15% voting no and 12% voting for cheese. That's about what I expected public opinion to be, which is why I was surprised to see almost 60% of voters at JSOnline vote no.

If you are one of the small percentage of BCB readers (or large percentage of JS readers) who want Cameron gone, then you'll be happy to note the rumor that he could be traded to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera and pitching. I guess Cabrera is young and cheap, but for this deal to make sense to me it'd have to net a lot of pitching.

We haven't talked about Corey Hart in a while. According to Beyond the Box Score, Gabe Gross and Nelson Cruz were among the top 25 right fielders in 2008, but Corey Hart was not.

Hot stove notes:

Brave Elmer Dessens filed for free agency.
Dodger Brad Penny had his option for 2009 declined. Also, Russell Martin may not be on the move after all, even for a package that could have netted Scott Olsen and Dan Uggla.
Marlin Scott Olsen could be acquired for a catcher - the Marlins have targeted Ranger Max Ramirez.
White Sox Javier Vazquez and Nick Swisher are reportedly on the trading block.

Drink up.

Well, at least now we know for sure Jason Kendall will be back for 2009. He made his 100th start yesterday, vesting his option for next year at $4.25 million. He celebrated the milestone by picking up one single in 4 plate appearances yesterday, raising his OPS to .645.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score

Now that it's been 10 days and the ensuing winning streak is over, can we finally stop talking about Prince Fielder shoving Manny Parra? Baseball Digest Daily called it "The Shove of Inspiration."

Two-fisted Slopper isn't buying the hype on a possible 2008 return for Yovani Gallardo. Maybe there aren't enough innings to go around, but if a guy with a career 132 ERA+ wants to come back and try to pitch, I'm guessing the Brewers can find an opportunity for him from time to time.

Cardinals Diaspora is waving the white flag. They no longer think the Redbirds can catch the Brewers or the Cubs. In the meantime, The Cub Reporter asks if the Cubs should tank the NL Central to set up a more favorable playoff matchup.

Last night I was in attendance as the Iowa Cubs (managed by Pat Listach) defeated the New Orleans Zephyrs 6-3. Today, The Official Site's "Where are they now?" feature caught up with the former Rookie of the Year.

I may have been a little too hard on Big League Stew yesterday. They recently added a tattoo combining the retro logo and the Grateful Dead logo to their collection. Love or hate the retro logo, it's cool ink.

On injuries:

Blue Jays RP Scott Downs will be out at least a few more days with a rolled ankle, but may avoid the DL.
Yankees RP Dan Giese has rotator cuff tendinitis and should hit the DL any minute now.
Angels SS Maicer Izturis has an injured thumb that has kept him out of action for most of the last 10 days.
Troy Percival left yesterday's game after spraining his knee fielding a bunt. Grant Balfour came in and blew the save for him.
Aaron Rowand left last night's game with a back injury.
Brad Penny has been placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
Aramis Ramirez suffered a hip contusion and had to leave last night's game.
Dodgers RP Cory Wade has been placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
Padres SP Chris Young has been placed on the DL with a forearm strain.

Via Skyking162, I found this Lookout Landing post gathering way more stuff than I have time to read on the topic of statistical analysis in baseball. Years ago a professor friend of mine asked if I thought there would be enough interest to do a semester class on baseball statistics. Dan, if you're reading, there's your textbook.

Today is the last day to sign 2008 draft picks. Marc Hulet of Baseball Analysts has a nice roundup of what's remaining to be done.

It appears the Giants might have a hard time signing their top pick, Yonder Alonso, as he has an invitation on the table to play in the Atlantic League and live with Alex Rodriguez.

It looks like Zach Jackson had a solid but unspectacular debut with the Indians: He gave up three runs on eight hits in five innings and did not factor in the decision in Cleveland's 11-6 loss to the Orioles.

The Cubs did win yesterday, but they did it despite the efforts of Mark Kotsay, who was the first Brave in 21 years to hit for the cycle.

Oh, and this guy posted something unintelligible in the comments of a Youtube clip. (h/t Aaron Gleeman)

Drink up.

Ok, so it isn't exactly a series preview...consider it a rest-of-series preview.  Rob runs the great Dodgers/Angels site 6-4-2, and he was kind enough to take the time to answer some questions about one of his teams for us.  Without further ado:

Q: You've had the opportunity to watch Joe Torre in action for six weeks now--kind of like the previous decade, I'd imagine, only on local TV instead of national.  What are your impressions so far?

A: Torre seems to be under the impression that the press release version of his team is the actual team; it's certainly the only explanation why Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones have both appeared as starters in various lineups.  With Rafael Furcal out, it's simply shocking to have Torre miss what seems obvious to everyone else:  Andre Ethier is the team's second best hitter, and the Dodgers can ill-afford to miss both while plugging in arguably worse defense (and certainly worse offense) in left.

Q: In Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones, the Dodgers have a pair of outfielders who are underperforming the youngsters in every category but age.  How do you see the outfield situation shaking out over the course of the season?  Are there any other prospects who Pierre might end up blocking?

A: My inclination is to place the blame for this squarely on the shoulders of ownership. As Joe Sheehan recently pointed out in a Baseball Prospectus piece picked up by Sports Illustrated, the Dodgers are really three teams in one: the Paul DePodesta Dodgers, the Ned Colletti Dodgers, and the (VP of Scouting) Logan White Dodgers. Unsurprisingly, the Logan White team is the most productive as measured by value-for-salary, but the Colletti players -- which includes the likes of Jason Schmidt, Nomar Garciaparra, Juan Pierre, and Andruw Jones -- contains all the deadweight. "Grady Little's inability to play his best players at the expense of those veterans was the critical factor in the Dodgers finishing eight games out in a competitive NL West", Sheehan opined, and it's absolutely a factor again with Torre running the team.

Unfortunately, it's unclear what the Dodgers will do going forward. Pierre's contract virtually dictates he will end up with playing time (almost certainly too much and at the expense of Ethier, from what we can gather so far). Likewise Jones' glove, and more, his arm represent a significant improvement over the noodle Pierre uses to toss his rainbow throws back to the infield. If there were a clearly superior outfield prospect in the wings, it seems likely that the Dodgers would have blocked that player, too. So, no, I have no idea how this will shake out, other than to say it will be done sub-optimally.

Q: Similar question: with Blake DeWitt playing well, Andy LaRoche stuck in AAA, and Nomar pretending to healthy sometime soon, what will happen at third?  If you were running the team, what would you do about that spot?

A: I would tell Nomar his duties are limited to pinch-hitting and spot starting, or cut him. The best thing he's done for the 2008 Dodgers so far has to spend substantial time on the DL, thus giving Blake DeWitt an extended showcase. I don't think DeWitt is quite as good as he's shown so far, and LaRoche will probably, eventually, develop more power, but either or both of those young players can bring to the table more, now, than Nomar. (In case you can't tell, the big problem with this team is that it doesn't have enough injuries to the right players.)

Q: The Brewers aren't going to see Hideki Kuroda this series, but he hasn't gotten a whole lot of national coverage, so I'm curious what your impressions are so far.  He's certainly gotten results--do you see that holding up as the league sees him for the second or third time?

A: League? Try, lineup. In Sunday's contest against Houston, he uncharacteristically carried a no-hitter into the seventh, but as Vin Scully mentioned in the TV broadcast, Kuroda tends to wilt the third time through the order. (Baseball-Reference doesn't show this data on his splits page, but you can get a feel for it by pitch count; after 75, his line goes ballistic to a slapped-silly .355/.412/.516.) Jon Weisman thought he was actually trying too hard, but it seems to me his stuff flattens out early. Fortunately, the Dodgers only need a third starter, or should; it's likely that with rotational ineffectiveness (Derek Lowe's groundballs haven't been coming as they used to, and Brad Penny's meatball catering service is giving the team fits), the team wiill have to bring up Clayton Kershaw earlier than they might like.

Q: Overall, the LA bullpen has been quite effective, but not in the way I would've expected.  Beimel dominating while Broxton is scuffling?  Fill us in on the pecking order behind Saito, and how you see this group performing over the course of the year.

A: Beimel wears the number 97, which tells you a little something about his psychology; he tends to blend into the background, but you're right that he appears to be dominating in the early season. Emphasis should be on appears, because in point of fact, he's second on the team for allowing inherited baserunners to score (so far, five have, one back of Scott Proctor's six), thus deflating his ERA while adversely affecting both the team and the pitcher(s) ahead of him. Broxton had the worst outing of his career on Sunday, giving up six runs while making only one out, but he'll revert to form; one of his hallmarks early on was his tendency to get in a funk and lose control on his fastball, and it looks like that's what happened.

The real question is what happens once Chan Ho Park turns back into the guy Texas knew and hated. By ERA, he's the third best pitcher on the team (2.16 in 25 IP), but there's no way he sustains that with his low strikeout rate. Scott Proctor is looking mighty like a midseason DFA or a slow regression to mopup duties, something that will be hard to accomplish given Torre's extended experience with him in New York. Most likely to replace him, and perhaps the biggest wild card currently on the 25-man, is Yhency Brazoban. The man with a name designed for Scrabble had a rough but scoreless go in the team's 7-1 Friday loss. He was all but unhittable for a couple months in 2004, but injuries sidetracked him. Even at league average, he could still be a useful part given the likelihood of both injury and ineffectiveness elsewhere in the pitching staff.

Thanks, Rob!

Penny.  Villanueva.  Preview.  7:05 CT.  Go!