Sal Baxamusa at the Hardball Times recently published a very useful tool: downloadable Excel spreadsheets that produce Marcel projections for players. Marcels are basically weighted averages and are surprisingly competitive with advanced projection systems like PECOTA or ZiPS. For our purposes--predicting the most likely immediate future performance to evaluate, for instance, whether we should get a new second baseman--Marcel will do just fine. So, let's see what we've got:

Jason Kendall

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.258	.339	.333
Balance	.259	.330	.329
Total	.258	.334	.331

Prince Fielder

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.270	.357	.488
Balance	.282	.374	.531
Total	.275	.364	.507

Rickie Weeks

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.217	.320	.367
Balance	.247	.357	.409
Total	.231	.335	.386

Bill Hall

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.234	.294	.431
Balance	.260	.326	.465
Total	.246	.308	.446

Russell Branyan

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.245	.331	.604
Balance	.236	.332	.469
Total	.239	.332	.515

J.J. Hardy

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.283	.352	.476
Balance	.273	.335	.448
Total	.279	.343	.463

Ryan Braun

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.286	.324	.549
Balance	.303	.354	.567
Total	.293	.337	.556

Mike Cameron

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.231	.320	.481
Balance	.246	.329	.443
Total	.240	.325	.461

Gabe Kapler

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.315	.352	.517
Balance	.272	.332	.425
Total	.294	.341	.471

Corey Hart

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.289	.327	.504
Balance	.285	.340	.496
Total	.287	.331	.501

Ben Sheets

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	2.85	123	109	108	28	1.11
Balance	3.47	87	81	71	22	1.18
Total	3.11	210	190	179	50	1.14

CC Sabathia

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	3.67	137.3	130	137	40	124
Balance	3.21	98	94	86	25	1.22
Total	3.48	235	224	223	65	1.23

Jeff Suppan

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	4.71	101.3	118	55	44	1.60
Balance	4.44	72	82	42	27	1.52
Total	4.60	173	200	97	71	1.57

Manny Parra

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	3.78	100	99	78	50	1.49
Balance	3.98	71	70	57	31	1.42
Total	3.86	171	169	135	81	1.46

Dave Bush

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	4.39	106.7	97	66	26	1.15
Balance	4.19	76	76	52	19	1.25
Total	4.30	182	173	118	45	1.19

Son of Clung

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	4.16	75.7	66	64	36	1.35
Balance	4.53	54	51	40	24	1.40
Total	4.32	129	117	104	60	1.37

Ok, I think my hiatus is done. I've gone on vacation, I've moved, and last night I got home from 5 days in Denver. And somehow, I managed to schedule my return for the biggest Brewer news day of the season.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score

First, if you haven't seen them yet, the specifics of the trade: In exchange for a 3 month rental of C.C. Sabathia and the increased potential of a long playoff run, the Brewers are giving up Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson and West Virginia reliever Rob Bryson. They will likely also add Brevard Co. 3B Taylor Green.

Of course, some people have written about this:

Baseball Intellect has a nice overview of the trade, complete with a review of Sabathia's stuff, if you're not familiar with him.
In-Between Hops likes the move.
Phil Rogers says it's time to take the Brewers seriously again...so he ranks them behind All-Star arguments in his most recent power poll.
Thomas Wayne of Dugout Central pulls out the smallest possible sample size and says the Sabathia move won't help the Brewers, based on his 7+ ERA in four career postseason starts.

I think the most interesting Sabathia conversation has yet to start, though: Who does he replace in the rotation? Assuming Sheets and Suppan are safe, and Dave Bush is similarly safe based on his recent performances and Ned Yost's man-crush on him, then we're down to Seth McClung and Manny Parra. In the Fanposts, Badgermaniac suggests platooning them. What do you think?

A semi-related note: The Biz of Baseball has made a list of six GMs on the hot seat. If this move doesn't work out and Doug Melvin traded a large chunk of the future for a 3 month rental on a team that misses the playoffs, he'll likely be on lists like that next season.

Also, while I doubt he'll slide directly into Sabathia's spot in the rotation, the Indians signed Jeff Weaver yesterday.

Are the Brewers done dealing? Buster Olney, via The Brew Town Beat, says the answer may be no. They're reportedly still talking to the Padres about Randy Wolf and Greg Maddux.

Somehow overshadowed in all of this: The Brewers finished a 3-game sweep of the Pirates yesterday, and J.J. Hardy is hitting .468/.507/1.000 in his last 15 games with 9 doubles, 8 HR and 19 RBI.

All told, the last 24 hours have certainly been more interesting than sitting on the roof.

On injuries:

Braves reliever Manny Acosta injured his hamstring running out a sac bunt and has been DL'ed.
Braves P Jeff Bennett is on the DL after injuring himself throwing to first.
Lance Berkman missed yesterday's game with what sounds like a pretty nasty eye condition.
A's SS Bobby Crosby is on the DL with a strained hamstring.
D-Backs RP Juan Cruz is on the DL with a strained oblique.
Johnny Damon is on the DL for the first time in his career after injuring his shoulder colliding with the wall Friday.
Nats OF Elijah Dukes will be out 4-6 weeks after having arthroscopic surgery to repair damage to his patella.
Phillies reliever Tom Gordon is on the DL with elbow inflammation.
Orlando Hernandez pitched four rehab innings yesterday. It's unclear whether he threw the banana.
Reds OF Norris Hopper will miss the rest of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Braves IF Omar Infante is on the DL with a strained hamstring
Roy Oswalt's next start is being pushed back to give him time to recover from pain in his hip.
Troy Tulowitzki is on the DL after breaking a maple bat against the wall and slicing open his hand.

A quick maple bat story: Saturday night I attended my first game at Coors Field (worth seeing if you're in Denver, but don't go out of your way to get there). I was nearly reduced to tears by the inane conversation of two young women behind me, who showed incredible perseverance by hanging in there through 3 full hours and two rain showers despite the fact that they had almost no idea a game was going on. Some examples from their conversation, when they weren't too busy talking about drinks, hookups and drugs: The Rockies were up 8-0 at the time. The following quote came after a home run was inadvertently knocked back onto the field by a fan trying to make the catch: But, in the middle of all of that mess, they also said this: My point: Even the ditziest blonde in Denver recognizes the problems with maple bats. Major League Baseball, however, still says the matter needs more research.

Stories like this put our pitching conversations into perspective: Mark Mulder is starting for the Cardinals again.

The Phillies have taken an opportunity to drive up the price of closers, and rewarded Brad Lidge's half-season of effective bullpen work with a 3-year, $37.5 million extension.

Oh, and by the way, I hate the X-Games with the fire of a thousand suns, but I love Darkmane.

Drink up.

Suppan.  Duke.  Win streak.  Go!

Game time is 1:05 CT, and here's the BR Game Preview.

Go Brewers!

I think Daron Sutton is out to get us.  In the first inning last night, he was talking about how the D-Backs just can't seem to beat the Brewers.  He might as well have announced during the pregame that Dave Bush was throwing a no-hitter.

Tonight's starters have a combined age of 155 77, with a lot of that burden carried by Randy Johnson.  RJ is starting to pitch like an old guy, only not as well as Jamie Moyer, the quintessential old pitcher in the 21st century.  He coughed up 7 runs in two of his last three starts, and his ERA is only a smidgen better than Dave Bush's.  That said, he did hold the Red Sox to two runs in his last start, and that's nothing to sneeze at.  (Also, don't sneeze at Randy.  Literally.  He'll get angry, and he'll also get hurt.)

Jeff Suppan goes for us, and despite a blip a couple of starts ago, he's still in the middle of an impressive run.  His ERA in May and June combined is 3.38, and he's given up only four longballs in that time.  (Could be luck, but either way, I'll take it.)  Another interesting note from Supp's gamelog: he's only gone over 100 pitches four time this year.  Despite that, he's averaging just a tiny bit below 6 innings per start.

Enough of that...game time is 8:40 CT, and here's the BR Game Preview.

Go Brewers!

Jeff Suppan vs. Jorge Campillo. 

Game time is 12:05 CT.  It's getaway day, and it's a day off tomorrow.

Go Brewers!

I'm not quite ready for a full time return to the active roster quite yet, but I am home for a couple of days, so the Mug returns temporarily today and tomorrow, and hopefully for good in early July. Thanks to Jeff for filling in admirably during my extended absence. Without him, life might imitate Garfield minus Garfield. I'll be back full-time soon.

Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score

When I left on my mini-sabbatical, Prince had 8 home runs. Since then he's hit 8 more, including the one pictured here. If I go back on sabbatical and he hits 8 more, I'll be tempted to retire.

Also pictured: The biggest accomplishment of Jeff Suppan's weekend.

Matt LaPorta missed a couple of games last week after running into the outfield wall, then returned for one day before leaving the team again to be with his ailing grandfather. Best wishes go out to him and his family.

I hadn't updated my projection spreadsheets in a while, so this morning I updated the data and noticed that Russell Branyan is on pace to hit 42 HR in just 296 official AB's this season. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs notes that Branyan was called up on the same day (May 25) to play the same position (#5 on your scorecard) as Ryan Braun circa 2007. The similiarities pretty much end there, but they're interesting nonetheless. If you're looking for analysis of Branyan's hot start, though, dixieflatline's post from Friday is the best I've seen.

Speaking of Branyan: Weeks ago I bookmarked a link about him, then promptly forgot about it and went on vacation. Remember that 460-foot home run he hit into the Dew Deck on May 31? SensibleUnits.com says 460 feet is equal to 44 male African elephants standing on top of one another, 7.8 ten pin bowling lanes, 2.8 Olympic swimming pools, or 1.8 Airbus A380s side by side. Check out the link to get more.

Sometimes Phil Rogers gets a bum rap, and sometimes he deserves it: In his most recent power poll he ranks the Brewers, owners of a 21-10 record in their last 31 games, 16th. Thankfully, the Hardball blog has a little feature at the bottom where you can rate their posts. I'd encourage you to go give him one star. Sadly, it's the lowest option available.

Even Eli acknowledges it's unlikely to become a story, but the Phillies reportedly had a scout in town to watch Ben Sheets recently.

Mark DiFelice is starting to climb up an interesting list: By making his first ten big league appearances without issuing a walk, Recondite Baseball notes that DiFelice has tied the eighth longest streak of all time to start a career. There's seven names you likely won't recognize on the all-time list in front of him. Still, though, it's a pretty nice claim to fame for a guy most of us never expected to get out of the minors in the first place. On injuries:

Marlins P Burke Badenhop has been placed on the DL with right shoulder tendinitis.
Erik Bedard left his start Friday with back spasms.
Adrian Beltre missed this weekend's action with a bruised index finger but could return as soon as today.
Reds SS Jolbert Cabrera injured his hand sliding into second Friday, making him the fourth Reds SS to get injured this season.
Pirates SP Phil Dumatrait has been placed on the DL with rotator cuff tendinitis.
Yankees RP Kyle Farnsworth left Sunday's game after being struck in the hand by a ground ball. He needed 3 stitches.
Cards SS Cesar Izturis is on the DL with a strained hamstring.
Reed Johnson is having back spasms and may have to go on the DL.
Rangers C Gerald Laird is on the DL with a strained hamstring.
Blue Jays SP Shaun Marcum has been placed on the DL with elbow soreness.
Rangers RP Doug Mathis has been placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
Pirates SP Ian Snell will have an arthrogram (a what?) today to determine the source of his right elbow irritation.
Red Sox RP Mike Timlin has been placed on the DL with tendinitis in his knee.
Jose Valentin has suffered multiple setbacks in his rehab and will be out for the season.
Carlos Zambrano's shoulder has landed him on the DL. They're still calling it precautionary.
Barry Zito isn't hurt, but The Giants Baseball Blog is bringing up the possibility of taking a drastic step and having him undergo Tommy John surgery anyway.

Comedy legend George Carlin passed away over the weekend. Here's one of his all-time great preformances, highlighting the differences between baseball and football.

Here's a performance that's not exactly an all-time great: After a nearly unprecedented 3 managerial firings in 4 days, Scott Miller of CBS Sports wants to make sure we know we shouldn't expect it again. I guess I thought that was implied when phrases like "nearly unprecedented" are being used.

It doesn't look like Rich Hill will be back to help the Cubs anytime soon. On Friday, he threw 45 pitches and only got two outs in AAA.

Are we still talking about free pitchers the Brewers may or may not be interested in as bullpen help? If we are, can I interest you in Kiko Calero or Denny Bautista?

Chipper Jones' chances of hitting .400 continue to lurk at about 1 in 5000.

If you're looking for summer reading material and my links in the Mug aren't long enough, you might consider picking up a book or two off of The Klaw 100. Speaking of books, I picked up "Shoeless Joe" after reading Jeff's post this spring on must-read baseball books, where he didn't actually recommend it. But I loved it and if you haven't read it, you should pick it up.

On a chance encounter this weekend I happened to meet "kindie" rock star Justin Roberts. I wasn't familiar with his work but after hearing him perform "Henrietta's Hair" and noting his new CD is titled "Pop Fly," I'd recommend him to anyone out there who has kids, and maybe even some of you who don't.

That's all for today. Drink up.

The Brewers are on a tear, to the point that we've more or less canceled out the disappointing start.  39-33 is an 88-win pace, which may well turn out to be enough for the wildcard, and is certainly in line with (or better than) pre-season expectations. 

Oddly enough, the Orioles are on something of a tear as well.  They've won five of their last six, which would be more impressive if those games weren't against the Pirates and Astros.  Before that, they lost a series to the Red Sox and took 2 out of three from the Twins and Blue Jays.

The matchup tonight is youngster Radhames Liz against Jeff Suppan.  Supp's ERA is down to 3.68, including a sparkling 2.35 in his last seven starts.  (I know, "sparkling" is a cliche, but I put some glitter on my monitor before writing this post, so I mean it literally.  Brew Crew Ball may be an interactive gangbang, but it is a cliche-free zone.  We never try to do too much with it.)

Game time is 7:05 CT, and here's the BR Game Preview.

Go Brewers!

No post-game links since there was no game yesterday, but we've got plenty to make up for it.

Tiger Woods is really good.  Even if you aren't much of a golf fan, Joe Posnanski's post-Open essay is well worth your time.

The Junkball Blues notes the improvement from the starting rotation.  Aside from Bush, everyone is doing their part, and as I've grown fond of pointing out, Jeff Suppan is pitching nearly as well as anybody right now.  We've talked a bit about options to fix the back of the rotation, and another name that we could add to the list is David Wells.  Emphasis on "could."

Speaking of Suppan, Royals Review has anointed him the 50th greatest Royal ever.  He was an innings-eater there, too, but he did get the opening day nod three times.

The Brewers had the day off, but Adam McCalvy didn't.  He posted a feature worth reading on Jason Kendall.  He quotes Melvin saying, "If you look at the free agent catchers now, he might have been the best one."  Could be, but I don't know if I'd put that on my business card.

Also at the official site, here's an article about 13th round pick Rob Wooten, currently closing games from North Carolina at the College World Series.

You might have heard that Prince Fielder is a vegetarian.  Jonah Keri chimes at ESPN with feature on athletes--not just baseball players--who go meatless.  

Perhaps you noticed that it rained in the midwest last weekend.  Nashville played the Iowa Cubs Saturday in front of a crowd of two.

Moving away from the Brewers and their youngsters...

Willie Randolph was fired last night, along with pitching coach Rick Peterson and first-base coach Tom Nieto.  It's the Nieto axe that'll really shake things up.  You know when there's a bad seed coaching at first, it can poison the whole clubhouse.  The new Mets skipper will be Jerry Manuel, therefore confusing all of us who can't keep Jerry Manuel and Charlie Manuel (managing the division rival Phillies) straight.

Also fired: Bill Bavasi, possibly the worst GM in baseball.

Not going to be fired anytime soon: Sandy Alderson, interviewed by Ducksnorts.

Finally, Josh's Hardball Times column this week uses pitch f/x data to figure out how best to pitch at Coors.  Great stuff as always.

Check back this afternoon for five questions with a Blue Jays pundit.

Now that the Twins have gotten 10 runs out of their system, maybe they're done.

Right?

Tonight it's Glen Perkins, making his first career start against Milwaukee, and Jeff Suppan, who has eaten innings against everybody.  Suppan, actually, is on something of a tear.  In his last seven starts, he's gone 5 or more in all of them, and given up more than three runs only once--and that was the game against the Red Sox in which he gave up four.  Alright, he's not going to win the Cy Young Award for it, but he's had a 2.66 ERA in that stretch, lowering his season ERA about a run and a half.

Game time is 6:05 CT, and here's the BR Game Preview.

Go Brewers!

Nice to finally get back on the board at Coors Field, eh?  Off day today, but tomorrow we start up a series in Houston, pitting Seth McClung against Roy Oswalt. 

• BR Box Score
• FanGraphs Win Probability Chart

In case you hadn't noticed, Jeff Suppan is pitching well.  He largely skipped his traditional solid April, but he's made up for it since.  Too many fans expect brilliance from a guy because he's making eight figures; a 3.78 ERA from our designated veteran innings eater may not last, but it's a bright spot on the season nonetheless.

Rickie Weeks is back in Milwaukee getting his knee examined.  Of course, it's "precautionary," and "we don't think it's serious."  You know what that means, kids. 

More news from Tom on the beat: Cameron might be moved from the #2 spot.  Personally, I don't care.  I would happily accept a suboptimal lineup in exchange for no more discussion of lineups ever again. 

Speaking of things I don't want to hear about: Tom is a little overexcited about last night's five-out save.  Apparently, when Salomon Torres, a set-up man and once closer, pitches more than an inning in the 7th and 8th, it's not worth mentioning.  When he is the newly appointed sort-of-captain of the closer-by-committee, it's a throwback to the golden age of baseball.  (Remember?  The 80s.) 

Baseball Digest Daily has a new Matt LaPorta journal.

UZR, MGL's defense uber-stat, doesn't like the Brewers.  By my rough count, it ranks Milwaukee 23rd in baseball.  Fielder and Hall are rated among the worst at their positions, and Cameron is best in center.

Finally, here's an article from yours truly about non-Division I college draft picks.  Turns out the Mets led the pack, taking nine such players, while the Brewers took five.  The Brewers picks included two D2 guys: Brandon Rapoza of Flagler and Trey Watten of Abilene Christian; two D3ers: Mike Vass of Chapman and Evan Bronson of Trinity (TX); and one NAIA player, Austin Adams of Faulkner.

That'll do it for this morning!