Some things to read while making excuses for not doing anything today.

We open today with a Sabathia Smorgasbord:

• Ken Davidoff, via MLB Trade Rumors, reports the Yankees might be willing to raise their offer to $150 million over six seasons if another team, like the Angels, offers Sabathia $130 million.
• Rob Neyer says replacing Jon Garland with Sabathia would make the Angels 3-4 wins better next season, which doesn't sound like much but becomes more relevant when you realize the 2008 Angels already won 100 games. And if Jon Garland is as bad as projected in 2009, the difference is even bigger.
• Everyone loves CC. Absolutely everyone. Not only is he friends with LeBron James, Mike Cameron and Nick Swisher, but Buster Olney says his best friend in baseball is David Riske.
• Sabathia's midseason acquisition and the jersey rush that followed are probably a big part of the reason the Brewers sold more named jerseys than any other team in 2008.
• FanGraphs says Sabathia had the single greatest pitching performance in 2008. (Ben Sheets had the second best.)
• Kenny Doyle of Dugout Central says the Braves need CC Sabathia...because he's black. I tend to think he's valuable for reasons that extend beyond his skin color.
• Over 10,000 people have voted, and so far the Yankees hold a slight edge in Ken Rosenthal's poll on CC Sabathia's destination.
• Sabathia was second on The Brew Town Beat's Top Ten List of things to be thankful for.
• Sabathia also made Big League Stew's list of 101 things, along with Ryan Braun's nickname, Bob Uecker, and the food and tailgating at Miller Park.

Of course, there is other movement on the free agent market. These two pieces of news were so huge, for example, that the mainstream media just assumed you knew about them and passed by: Mel Stocker is a Mariner and Callix Crabbe might be too.

Since they haven't signed any Type A or B free agents (yet), the Brewers still project to draft 27th in the 2009 draft. With two Type A free agents (Sabathia and Sheets) still out there, they stand to pick up several extra early picks.

Here's a mishmash of one sentence notes falling under the heading of "bullpen:"

• The Rockies are reportedly targeting Brian Shouse.
• Seth McClung made the final four candidates in FanGraphs' search for 2009's best mop up pitcher.
• Salomon Torres hasn't officially retired yet. He still needs to turn in the paperwork.

Baseball Musings takes a look at how defense affected pitchers in 2008. Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Dave Bush were helped the most by the Brewer defense, while Carlos Villanueva was the only Brewer to be hurt by it.

While I'm on the subject of defense: I know fielding percentages and error counts are not the only or the best way to measure defensive ability, but Vinny Rottino, Brendan Katin and Tony Gwynn were all among the bottom of AAA in terms of fielding percentage and among the leaders in errors. Just saying.

I hope everyone remembered yesterday to be thankful for R.J. Swindle. He's Canadian, so his Thanksgiving is actually the second Monday in October, but Independent Baseball Chatter says he has extra reason to be thankful this season anyway.

If Balking Traditionalism's 2009 pitching projections are accurate, we may not have as much Brewer success to be thankful for at this time next year.

Rowland's Office thinks the Braves are making a mistake pursuing A.J. Burnett if the price is five years, $75 million, comparing Burnett to Pete Harnisch. He thinks the Braves should pursue Ben Sheets instead.

And if free agent pitching is too expensive for you, Baseball Analysts takes a look at some pitchers available in the Rule 5 Draft.

I didn't collect as many hot stove links as I normally do today, but here are a few:

Braves: Mike Hampton is reportedly shopping for a one year deal, but wants a straight salary, not an incentive-based deal. I can't believe I'm saying this, but on a one year deal he might be worthy of consideration.
Mets: The team is likely just posturing, but has publicly stated Brian Fuentes' request for a 3 year, $30-$33 million deal seems "a bit high."
Phillies: Matt Stairs is most likely the only current major leaguer spending the offseason coaching high school hockey in Maine.

So, if you're reading the Mug this morning, it's probably safe to assume you skipped the long lines and insanity of Black Friday shopping. If you did, and you're still looking for gifts, might I suggest a shiny new Wisconsin Timber Rattler hat? I'd wear one.

Finally, I've made a point of keeping my work and this blog separate for most of my tenure here, but today it's for a good cause so I'll break the rule. I've been ring announcing pro wrestling shows for 3XWrestling in Des Moines for the last 2 1/2 years, and tonight we have a show in Des Moines as a toy drive for Toys for Tots. If you're located somewhere near Des Moines and looking for something to do tonight, c'mon out with a new, unopened toy and help support a great cause. Even if you're not near Des Moines, Toys for Tots is a great cause to support, as is Child's Play, which is helping two hospitals in Wisconsin this year.

Drink up.

I've been furiously emailing with some Phillies bloggers for the last couple of days, but it's been a bit asymmetrical.  Since three of them wanted to do Q&As with me, I figured I could take advantage of their numbers and split up a monster preview Q&A into three parts.  I'll be posting a couple of other previews later on today.

Handling the offense is Tim Malcolm from Phillies Nation.  Tim is currently plowing through a seven-part NLDS preview, so it's definitely worth stopping over there and reading up.  Here's what Tim had to say:

BCB: The Phillies offense is obviously impressive--five regulars have .349+ OBPs.  Who's the one guy you want at the plate with the game on the line?

Tim Malcolm: The obvious answer is Ryan Howard. Look at his .352 September with 11 homers and 32 runs batted in. But he gets a lot of knocks early — his average sinks below .200 once the game goes over two hours. Of course, it's hard going against a guy who has lately knocked in some big runs (I'm reminded of an eighth-inning homer to tie a game with Atlanta), but in a close playoff series, against top relief pitching, I'm a little more hesitant to go with the big man.

Instead, I'll take Pat Burrell, who has a knack for big hits in big moments. Just ask Billy Wagner. And he does have an OPS of 1.078 in those calculated "late-and-close" situations. Is this a ridiculous choice? Maybe.
 
BCB: Ryan Howard got off to a dreadful start, but if anything, he finished even bigger.  Did he change anything at any point in the season, or is streakiness par for the course?

TM: There's no singular answer for this question, because nobody knows. We know Howard heats up as the marathon reaches the final mile. He's a career .302 second-half hitter, as opposed to .255 before the break. We know he can be streaky, because this season he stunk in April, sparkled in May, stunk in June, sparkled in July, stunk in August, sparkled in September. We also know he was injured last season, and didn't heat up until he fully recovered.

I tend to think Howard gets better with the more he sees. And he can adjust to pitchers throwing away, and throwing low. He has been able to get to balls and spray them for hits, whereas earlier this season he'd strike out easily on bad balls. So call it a matter of adjustment.
 
BCB: Jimmy Rollins stole 47 bases in 50 attempts.  That's just incredible. But...do you think he can successfully run on Jason Kendall?  You may not be aware of this, but in an exhibition game, Kendall threw out Olympic sprinter Tyson Gay.

TM: The Phillies running game vs. Kendall (Really? Tyson Gay? [ed. note: yes, really. ok, maybe not]) will be one of the most interesting storylines of the series. Kendall has always been fantastic [ed. note: Kendall has gritted away all memory of 2007!], and the Phils as a whole can run the basepaths efficiently. Credit first base coach Davy Lopes, who has engineered the most efficient base-stealing troupe in baseball history. Rollins is example No. 1 — since Lopes has been manning first, Rollins is 88-for-97 in steals.

How so efficient? Lopes times each pitcher, and if the pitcher is a fraction slower than normal, Lopes will let his runner wait for the right pitch. With Kendall back there, it'll push some of those speeds, and I'm sure Lopes will be a little more careful with giving runners the green light. If anything, look for Phillie runners to give pitchers fits at first instead of blasting toward second.
 
BCB: Who are the first pinch-hitters off the bench for Charlie Manuel?

TM: Manuel's favorite pinch bat is the game's best, Greg Dobbs. "Roy Hobbs" Dobbs is striking at .355 with two homers and 16 runs batted in as a pinch hitter. His 22 pinch hits are a single-season franchise record. He'll enter the game in run-scoring opportunities against right-handed pitching.

Late-season pickup Matt Stairs might be a "we-need-a-homer-now" option. From the right side, the first guy off the bench might be So Taguchi. While his .220 average has inspired little confidence, Manuel likes his veteran makeup and playoff experience. Eric Bruntlett will also get time, maybe as a defensive replacement for Pat Burrell.
 
BCB: What the hell is going on with Jayson Werth?  I mean, I remember when the verdict on him was that he was a 4th or 5th OF, maybe a platoon player at best.  Even against righties, he held his own this year.

TM: The popular opinion is now that Werth is finally regularly healthy, he has become the player his first-round scouting report read. He came along nicely toward the end of 2007, and this year broke out with his three-homer game against Toronto.

What I like most about Werth is he can do almost everything. He's a 25-homer threat, can hit singles and doubles, can steal bases (20 of them), can glide from first to third on a single, can make plays in right field. And you're right — while Werth murders lefties (.303 with an MLB-best 16 HR against them), he has come around vs. righties. Chalk that up to more experience against righties. He still needs to work a little more on beating them, but he's clearly made his mark as an everyday guy.

BCB: Be honest: Are you, or have you ever been, a Pat Burrell hater?  Do you want him back next year?

TM: There was a time I fretted every Burrell at bat. You'd see him look at strike one, then swing close at strike two, maybe fouling it off. Then you'd cringe as the pitcher dialed up the obvious breaking ball away and in the dirt. And almost everytime Burrell would fire off a hapless swing that looked more Ping than Louisville Slugger. He doesn't do that as often, though he showed signs of reverting in the second half this season.

I do appreciate his solid power, his knack for getting on base, and his clutch knocks. But the facts state he can't patrol left field that well anymore, and without sufficient rest, he's prone to unraveling. Earlier this season I would've handed him a two-year deal worth $12M per campaign. Now I might wish him a fond farewell to the Junior Circuit. I'm not sure how much longer Burrell can play as a two-dimensional hitter in the National League, and I don't really want to gamble a couple years on it.
 
BCB: And finally... the offense just didn't show up in the NLDS last year. Most of those guys are back this year--do you think the experience is going to change things, or are you worried that the big stage will pose a problem again?

TM: Last season's exit was incredibly frustrating because we fans never saw the NLDS Phillies before the NLDS. We weren't ready for Utley laying an egg, for Howard being pretty empty, for Rollins shutting down, etc. But this season we saw the Phils go through a two-month stretch where they had to scrape for runs and hope for a homer or three to win a game. Suddenly the NLDS Phillies were playing in July and August. But the really good, spot-on Phillie offense came back in September, when they were down a few games.

I am worried about the big stage because this offense seems to press and play for the bomb when they're drenched in limelight. The key, to me, is Shane Victorino. He stepped up when everyone decided the only way to hit a baseball was over 330 feet. He roped singles, turned singles into doubles, even hit a couple lucky four-baggers. And when he's on, he'll score, even from the sixth spot in the order. If the Phils are going to play loose baseball in the postseason, Victorino will be leading the charge.

BCB: Thanks, Tim!

If you've been cruising the baseball intertubes for a while, you've heard of John Brattain.  He writes twice a week for The Hardball Times, makes frequent appearances at Baseball Think Factory, and now writes for Baseball Digest Daily. 

While he covers all of MLB, his first love (well, second, just below beating Bud Selig with a rubber hose) is the Toronto Blue Jays.  With the Jays arriving for a three-game set at Miller Park, John was kind enough to take some time away from beating Bud Selig with a rubber hose to answer my questions.

Q: Let's counter expectations and start with something positive.  BJ Ryan is back, and the bullpen is a bright spot for the Jays.  The core of the pen has been very effective despite quite a few walks.  Are there any big surprises in this group?  Do you expect these guys to keep it up for another 95 games?

A: Yes (I think they will keep it up), I predicted the Jays would have a good bullpen this year--they’re about league average in walks surrendered which is actually an improvement on the fairly recent past where they were around 5 BB/9 (they’re 3.93 BB/9 at the moment). Despite the walks, they have a better than league average WHIP and are very stingy with the long ball (.76 HR/9 IP--AL avg: .87). Part of their success is that they are not overworked (12th in IP). However, they’re 4-14 because they’re often forced to protect very, very slim leads and when they give one up, the offense rarely gets it back since (1) the offense sucks--there’s no kinder word for it and (2) the starters go so deep into games there aren’t enough innings remaining to mount a comeback (not that it would help with the Jays’ lineup).

The biggest surprise has been how quickly B.J. Ryan returned from Tommy John surgery (although he’s clearly not all the way back) and Jesse Carlson was a minor league journeyman who really hadn’t done anything notable above A ball. Jeremy Accardo’s collapse was a nasty surprise and Jason Frasor is downright infuriating--an electric arm who tends to wet the bed in big situations. He has closer stuff but when he’s been placed in that role become the other team’s secret weapon. He should be a star reliever except he he celebrates the Brewers next division title when the pressure is on. If the game is close and Gibbons brings in Frasor, I suggest Brewer fans pop the bubbly and get the celebration underway.

Q: The Jays are in last place, though with the best record of any last-place team in baseball, just a smidge below .500.  They are also performing well below their Pythagorean record, which is 38-33.  Is it possible for the team to sneak back into contention?  If it is, what needs to happen?

A: J.P. Ricciardi needs to be fired.

Or…

J.P. Ricciardi needs to have an epiphany--he needs to get a big bat. With the bases loaded, the Jays are hitting .215/.256/.446, men on second and third, .224/.302/.265, man on third, two out .157/.257/.224, RISP/2 out: .197/.311/.285.

This lineup cannot even make productive outs--so many times they’ve had man on third, less than two out, bases loaded, none out/one out, second and third none/one out and couldn’t get a fly ball or ground ball to score the man from third. They’re 0-4 at home in extra innings and in those four extra-inning losses at home, 11 times they had man at third, fewer than two out and were left stranded. They’re 4-for-25 in hitting with RISP and less than two out in extra innings with zero extra base hits and three GIDP. They have had many opportunities to win games without needing a hit--just a deep fly ball or slow rolling ground ball would score the winning run--and failed.

There is nobody that can be counted on in key situations. One of the best overall situational hitters this year is David Eckstein--that says it all. If Ricciardi refuses to upgrade the offense then he should be fired--period. The Jays production from left field and DH are among the worst in the AL. From these two positions combined, league average production is .258/.346/.431--that’s just league average. The Blue Jays are getting .224/.319/.351 from those spots. Having league average offense from left field and DH would represent a huge upgrade for the offense but Ricciardi is unwilling or unable to find league average hitters for those holes.

Chances are good Adam Lind (hitting .331/.389/.534 in Syracuse) could produce at average-ish levels in left field (he certainly can bat better than .234/.319/.316--what Jays LF are hitting in 2008) leaving only the DH spot to fill--a platoon partner for Matt Stairs would suffice.

This team would contend with a competent GM--Ricciardi’s inability to fill these key offense spots with league average performers indicate that he clearly is incompetent.

Q: Like the bullpen, AJ Burnett is striking out a lot of guys and walking a lot of guys.  He's not embarrassing himself on the mound, but he also might be the Jays' fifth best starter right now.  In light of his recent comments about the Cubs, do you think he'll be a Blue Jay in August?  (Please note: Cash prizes are available for answers that include both "he sucks" and "he'll be a Cub very soon.")

A: Heh … I’m more than happy keeping him and taking the draft picks. If the Jays can get a decent bat I’m all for letting him go simply because A.J. could throw nothing but goose-eggs up on the scoreboard for the rest of the season and the Jays would still be floundering with the current lineup.

A.J. is frustrated and I don’t blame him one bit. The entire pitching staff should storm into Ricciardi’s office with a noose in hand and a demand--upgrade the offense now or become the poster child for Blue Jays choke jobs in 2008. I think he’ll be a Blue Jay all year because Ricciardi is not only in love with the status quo--he does the nasty with it on his desk during his lunch hour. If he does deal Burnett, he’ll probably get a middle infielder hitting .320/.400/.410 in low A ball that will be left unprotected in the 2010 Rule 5 draft.

Q: The Toronto offense is almost shockingly punchless, with no double-digit home run hitters.  Is there anything in particular to blame?  What should be (or should've been) done to make the offense respectable?

A: It sounds heretical in sabermetric circles but they need to be more aggressive at the plate. Now when I say aggressive, I don’t mean hack-tastic. I’m talking about going up there looking for a pitch to cream and turning on it when it appears. Sadly, the Jays current infatuation with uber-patience means they pass on first pitch meatballs so they can begin working the count from an 0-1 deficit in hopes of drawing a bases loaded walk to stay out of the double play.

Nobody in the lineup seems to realize that pitchers like to get ahead on the count--especially with men on and may be inclined to throw a first pitch fastball.

They’re letting pitchers dictate the at bat and forcing themselves to swing in pitcher’s counts at pitcher’s pitches with predictable results. OBP is nice but walks don’t get the runner home unless the sacks are juiced. They Jays have almost as many walks (6) as extra base hits (7) with the bases loaded and because they get themselves into bad counts with their approach--they also have 13 K and 7 GIDP with three aboard.

Mahatma Gandhi has been reincarnated as Gary Denbo and is the Blue Jays hitting coach. Passivity rules!

Q: Two and a half years on, what's your take on the Lyle Overbay trade?  So far, we've gotten a bunch of mediocre relief innings from Zach Jackson and an aggravating starter in Dave Bush.  Better than a kick in the ass Kevin Mench, right?

A: Overall I’ve been happy with it. The broken hand Overbay suffered last year really set him back and just now he seems to be the Overbay of old. Having said that, during the Jays recent 4-10 skid (where Toronto is hitting .181 with RISP with 22 hits and 14 GIDP with 109 men LOB) Overbay is hitting just .174/.291/.239--although I think (hope, pray, completely deludin’ myself here) that‘s just a bit of random variation since he was batting .291/.389/.491 over the previous five weeks with that Olerud-esque sweet swing of his. Regardless, I think the whole lineup needs a major enema.

On the bright side, the clubhouse is full of a bunch of swell guys that J.P. would be proud to introduce to his grandmother’s church knitting club and partnership for a celibate society--and that’s all that counts in the AL East … right? Not a sinner in the bunch--why they’re such gentlemen they go out of their way not to waste Ted Rogers’ money by hitting baseballs out of the field of play so they can be re-used again and again. They even make sure that they leave minimal marks on the balls so they remain nice and clean for grandma’s club to enjoy watching.

Such nice boys too--they even know it’s impolite to hit!

I need a good stiff drink.

Next round's on me.  Thanks John!