Remember Saturday, when I Mugged from the road? I'm back on the road, and the Brewers are still losing. I'm sorry this Mug is late, but breakfast closed at 9, so it took full focus to finish 3 laps in time.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps

Notable by their absence yesterday: Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and Jason Kendall. Apparently it was just a scheduled off day for almost half the starting position players, though.

The Yost Infection says it's time for a managerial change, even though most of this team's problems aren't Ned's fault. The time for a change was September of last year. The story now is that it hasn't happened yet.

Speaking of looming decisions, Derrick Turnbow will clear waivers soon. Looks like he's headed to Nashville.

On a positive note, Beyond the Box Score compares Matt LaPorta to Ryan Braun.

The Cub Reporter ranks Ben Sheets 4th among NL Central aces. He wants your vote to help rank them.

Or, if watching the Brewers is too much for you to handle sober, try out this drinking game. By the fifth or so, people will be stacking cups on your head.

On injuries:

Padres reliever Kevin Cameron is on the DL with an elbow strain.
Doug Davis is free of cancer. Sighs of relief all around.
Johnny Estrada is back on the DL with an inflamed nerve in his elbow.
Orlando Hernandez is no longer in a walking boot. He's one step closer to throwing the banana.
Dodgers P Esteban Loaiza is on the DL with spasms in his shoulder.
Nats C Paul Lo Duca has a broken hand and has been DL'ed.
Twins reliever Pat Neshek will have his elbow examined today after leaving last night's game.
Mets OF Angel Pagan is day-to-day with a bruised shoulder.
Braves P Brayan Pena is on the DL with a back strain.
Twins IF Nick Punto was scratched from last night's game with tightness in his hamstring.

Despite the hubbub about the Brewers only going as far as Prince Fielder will carry them, Recondite baseball notes that no Brewers make the list of top or bottom 20 in win-loss splits.

The Marlins are hot, but there's still plenty of great seats available at their games.

Reds Insider notes that new GM Walt Jocketty will get to rework his team in a hurry - the Reds will have 13 free agents after the season.

Here's video of Richie Sexson charging the mound last night. Two notes:

1) That pitch wasn't that close.
2) Richie, you're 6'6", did you really need to throw the helmet at the guy?

That's all for today. Drink up.

Happy Patriot Day, Brewer fans. I've been away from the TV, radio and computer for most of the last 3 days, but coming home today I see that the Brewers took two of three and should've swept the Reds, and open today's series with the Cardinals a game back of first place. It's time for a Frosty Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
ESPN Video Highlights
Baseball Digest Daily recaps
BP Postseason odds projecting the Brewers for 84 wins and a 23.6% shot at winning the Central.

Let's talk about Ben Sheets for a moment. The team says Sheets will only have to push his next start back a day. That doesn't seem serious, but at the same time, they've gone up to 14 pitchers on the roster just to make sure they have enough to cover the delay. Jim Powell also says Sheets is feeling better. I'm not entirely sure how keeping a guy like Mitch Stetter on the roster would fix the problem, even if he wasn't.

Inside the Book asks if teams overvalue guys with great stuff but questionable control. Since we seem to be having occasional debates lately about the value of Derrick Turnbow, I thought this belonged in the top half of the Mug.

Brian Shouse's streak of 83 consecutive appearances without allowing a home run was the 14th longest all time.

If you thought everyone loved Paul Molitor, it turns out it's only almost everyone.

Thanks to all 142 of you who voted in last week's fan opinion poll. The results:

• 74% of voters thought Dave Bush should move to the bullpen in place of Seth McClung when Gallardo returned.
• 45% of voters thought Eric Gagne's position as closer should be re-evaluated at the end of April. 32% thought he should be re-evaluated at the All Star Break and 21% think he's the closer indefinitely.
• 82% of voters thought Prince Fielder's slow start had nothing to do with becoming a vegetarian.
• 66% of voters thought the Brewers should make an effort to limit Manny Parra's innings.
• Of those voters, 68% thought it should be done by skipping his spot in the rotation when possible.
• Ned Yost's approval rating is at 78%, up from 77% last week, with 8% disapproval and 12% unsure.
• Doug Melvin's approval rating is at 97%, with one lone no vote and 2% unsure. Last week he was at 91%/5%/2%
• 96% of voters were in favor of the Cameron/Hall/Braun move.
• 61% of voters were in favor of the Gagne signing, with 17% opposed and 21% unsure.
• 35% of voters thought the team should offer Ben Sheets a long-term deal, with 29% wanting to wait until after the season, 19% opposed and 16% unsure.

Full results here. I'm hoping to write this week's poll today and post it later or tomorrow. If you have questions you'd like to see included, drop them in the comments.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Doug Davis is recovering well from surgery and throwing off flat ground. He could return in May.
Kosuke Fukudome missed last night's game with a cyst above his right eye, but should play today.
Chipper Jones was pulled from yesterday's game with a quad injury.
Alex Rodriguez was also pulled from yesterday's game with a quad injury.
Jimmy Rollins has been placed on the DL, but since he pinch-hit Saturday, he's not eligible to be placed retroactively.
David Weathers has been placed on the DL with nerve inflammation in his elbow.

Frank Thomas was released rather abruptly yesterday. Obviously, this will lead to lots of speculation about who he could help, but Landon Evanson at Bugs and Cranks likes him as a Twin.

This would be a much better reason to be cursed: Historical evidence suggests the Cubs may have thrown the 1918 World Series.

Now available: Hideo Nomo. Potentially available May 1: Bartolo Colon.

Bucs Dugout's tournament to determine the worst GM in baseball has moved on to the second round. Voting is open for the first matchup, Jon Daniels v. Bill Bavasi.

And while you're voting, go here as well and help me fill out my AL awards ballots. Thanks!

Drink up.

Baseball season can be so silly.  Three days ago, I was feeling down about this team, and judging from the comments here, I was far from alone.  Then we picked off the last game against the Cardinals and the first two against the Reds (including another Cueto start!) and we're elated again.  As long as we don't look too closely at the offense, anyway.

For the record, Bill Hall's career numbers against the Reds are now 313/379/641.  18 of his 87 dingers have come against Cincinnati.  That's 21% of his home runs in 12% of his plate appearances.

Last night was the Brewers' fourth extra-inning game, and our fourth-extra inning win.  Statistically, teams tend to go about .500 in extra-inning games, just like they tend to be even in 1-run games.  Strong bullpens can be difference-makers, but usually not to the point where a team wins *all* of their extra-inning games.  There will be pundits who point to the Brewers 4-0 record in extras to show that we're overperforming a little bit, but I say: We were supposed to lose two of those games and we didn't.  It's either a gift or a sign that our bullpen is great.  Either one works for me.

Our usual morning fare:

• FanGraphs Win Probability Graph
  
• Baseball-Reference Box Score
  
• ESPN Video Highlights
  
• Baseball Digest Daily Recaps
• BP Postseason Odds, in which the last two wins move the Brewers up to a 33% chance of making the playoffs, best in the division.
  

This ESPN column lists the most dangerous platoon teams, and amazingly, the author would rather his lefty pitcher faces the Tigers than the Brewers.  Show some respect, dude!

WSB Chris suggests a new stat, Probable Wins, to give credit for outings like Suppan's yesterday.  He's right, of course, that the Win stat is hopelessly archaic and means very little.  He's also not the first person to think in this direction.  Baseball Prospectus has a whole flotilla of stats aimed at improving Wins, such as the relatively simple Expected Wins up to the not-simple-relative-to-anything SNLVAR.  According to Expected Wins, Suppan should have 1.6 wins, not just 1.  Last year--this is pretty amazing--Suppan went 12-12, and according to EW, he should have gone 11.9 and 11.9.

Between the Green Pillars does something I've been meaning to do: project bullpen usage.  Of course, Riske and Torres are really getting up there in innings so far.  I'm not worrying about it, though.  We've had a lot of close games, which naturally leads Ned to use these guys.  Also, there are more off days early in the season, so Ned is taking advantage of the opportunity to use the better relievers in more games without wearing them out (at least in the short term).  Last night showed that he's willing to use Mota for multiple innings, and I'm sure we'll have enough mop-up opportunities for Turnbow.

Injury news, which I'm actually going to alphabetize this morning:

• Doug Davis is throwing again, and feels good.
• Adam Everett is hitting the DL, which means the Twins infield is going to get even less recognizable, and even less productive.  (And they'll catch way fewer balls.)
• Mike Gonzalez is on track for an early return.  The Braves haven't had Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano around much at the same time, and that 8th/9th inning tandem could make them very dangerous.
  
• You probably stopped caring a long time ago (I certainly did), but Mark Prior is resuming his rehab.  The Padres expect him to pitch in the majors by June or so, which means he's on track for a 2013 return.
• Wandy Rodriguez left his start yesterday with a groin issue.  The Astros are not well prepared to lose a starter for any period of time.  In not-really related news, Houston signed Alay Soler to a minor league deal.  Is this the answer to Jeff Weaver?
  
• The Giants put Erick Threets on the DL.  Threets is no Shouse, but this probably makes them worse.

The Cubs actually recalled Matt Murton.  It'll be interesting to see if Lou uses him; at this point, any playing time he gets must be geared toward showcasing him for a trade.

This story is a few days old, and maybe KL linked it, but here's a guy with some suggestions to improve umpiring.  It seems like we've had particularly bad experiences this year.  That said, I don't think rhetoric like the one in this article is going to convince anybody: that is, "I was watching a game last night and the umpiring sucked."  Those stories add enough, but they're not enough.  Some researchers have already begun some work with PitchFX and umpires, and there will be much more in the coming years.  I would hope that MLB is doing some of it themselves.

Fernando Tatis has 8 home runs in 56 minor league at-bats.  Even 3TO isn't cranking them out of the park like that.

That's it for today...see y'all back here at 12:15 CT as we go for the sweep!