Well, here we are. I'm pulling out all the superstition stops today. I'm having a Nutrisoda and pumpkin pie for breakfast. Even Gorman is excited for an afternoon on the couch. I might even let him take the cone off his head for a bit.

It's Yovani Gallardo vs Cole Hamels at 2 today. Let's start with the previews and predictions:

• Another Baseball Blog has the Brewers at 46% to win the series.
• Baseball Digest Daily has three keys for victory for each team.
• Cardinals Diaspora has the Phillies in 5.
• The Good Phight has the Phillies winning in 4.
• Some guy named Jeff Sackmann predicted a Brewer victory over at The Hardball Times.
• Two other, less knowledgable guys predicted a Phillies win.
• Ken Rosenthal has the Phillies in 4.
• 8 of the 10 writers at MLB FanHouse have the Brewers winning. They're also staging a debate?
• MLB Playoff Odds has the Brewers at 45.7%.
• Peter Schmuck has the Brewers winning the series.
• I have no idea how betting on baseball works, but Results Disoriented has the Brewers at +190 today and +164 to win the series. Whatever that means.
• Rohan Chatterjee of Bugs & Cranks predicts the Phillies in 4.
• WhatIfSports gives the Brewers a 49% chance of winning the series.

Want to make your own predictions? Beyond the Box Score wants to hear them.

Still need tickets for Games 3 and 4? Big League Stew notes there are tickets available for trade on Craigslist, if you've got tickets to a Celine Dion concert or a tab of generic Viagra to give away. And if you're visiting Milwaukee and looking for food, Keith Law has some restaurant reviews for you.

Even if you don't have tickets, you can still follow the Brew Town Beat's postseason roadmap. Or you could follow the Brewers by reading Ryan Braun's postseason blog. By the way, Braun's errorless 2008 season made Umpbump's list of biggest surprises.

It doesn't look like Dale Sveum will be asking Ryan Braun or anyone else to bunt all that often in the postseason, as the small ball experiment is out. A rule against wasting outs in the postseason makes me feel better about the Brewers' chances.

Another thing that could help: Pat Burrell left BP yesterday with discomfort in his lower back. He'll be re-evaluated today.

It's time for the daily gathering of links about CC Sabathia. Jon Heyman has him second for NL MVP, behind Manny Ramirez. Marc Hulet of FanGraphs thinks the Brewers won this trade. MLB Trade Rumors says the Indians are leaning towards taking Michael Brantley as the PTBNL.

Then, on the other end of the postseason-usefulness spectrum, we have Ben Sheets. Sheets was left off the NLDS roster and revealed he has a torn muscle near his right elbow yesterday. The Brew Town Beat thanks Sheets for his efforts as a Brewer.

If you could have any first baseman in baseball for the 2009 season, where would you draft Prince Fielder? Baseball by Paul has him sixth.

Would you have guessed the best offense of any NL playoff team belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers (of Los Angeles)? Me either.

On the coaching carousel: the Indians have fired bullpen coach Luis Isaac, who had been with the team since 1993. Hopefully he didn't punch anything on the way out, because apparently that can get expensive: The Padres are trying to recover some of Khalil Greene's salary after he missed about a third of the season with injuries sustained punching a storage cabinet.

Oh, and here's the Youtube video of Salomon Torres' speech from Monday's rally, which is now my second favorite Youtube video of the week, behind If I Were A Bond Girl.

Drink up. Then have another. See you back here at 2.

By the time you finish reading this article, you might just know more about the Phillies than you do about the Brewers.  At least you'll be ready to make fun of Brian Anderson when he says silly things on national TV.

To finish off our three-part Phillies q&a, we're going to turn to Peter Baker (WholeCamels) of The Good Phight, our sister blog in the SBN network.  Scroll down for the other parts: We covered the Phils offense with Tim Malcom, the pitching staff with Tom Goyne, and now it's time for...well, everything else.

BCB: Who's your Phillies MVP for the 2008 season?

Peter Baker: Normally I'm loathe to drink the Cult of the Closer Kool-Aid, but I'm going to go with Brad Lidge.

My favorite "quick-n-dirty" MVP stat - WPA - shows Brad Lidge with a 5.43 WPA, higher than any NL pitcher (starter or reliever) and behind only Cliff Lee in the majors.  And seventh overall among hitters and pitchers.  Although I hate the Save stat as a be-all, end-all in reliever evaluation, 41-for-41 is awfully damned good.  And the trickledown effect of 9th inning stability on the rest of the pitching staff played a huge part in making this bullpen one of the very best in baseball.

Chase Utley is a close second, but the absolute disappearance of his home run power over the season's second half was disappointing and troublesome.  His terrific defense is underrated, and is a huge consideration in ranking him above the next guy...

Ryan Howard's incredibly sexy HR and RBI totals, and brilliant September, don't make up for the fact that he was an absolute anchor for the season's first six weeks, and that he's a butcher in the field.

BCB: If you had to pick one guy to have a monster series, who would you choose?  (Let's make things harder and take Hamels, Howard, and Utley out of contention.)

PB: Pat Burrell.  If Burrell is raking, then he's probably hitting Sabathia pretty well, and as their best right-handed hitter, they're going to need Burrell to get some good swings if they hope to knock off CC.  Burrell's been terrible since the start of August; hopefully a couple days off will do him good.

BCB: I haven't paid a whole lot of attention lately, but last time I checked, Phillies fans felt about Charlie Manuel about the same way that Brewers fans felt about Yost.  But now, for the second year in a row, you've charged into the postseason, so it's seems like Manuel can't be all bad.  What's your take on having Manuel at the helm?

PB: It's gone from utter contempt in many circles to an acceptance of him, warts and all.  He still struggles with in-game decisions (and what manager is blameless here?), but it's pretty well confirmed that he runs a loose clubhouse that has contributed in no small part to two consecutive teams rallying from fairly deep September deficits to claim the division on the season's last weekend.

Personally, I like him.  He always has his players' backs and resists any and all urges to throw his guys under the bus.  Which can be difficult here -- Philly fans want blood and they want blame.  And I think his past experience as a hitting instructor/guru has only done good things for players like Howard and Utley.

I do find it funny, however, that some of his more vocal critics, who tend to harp on his West Virginia heritage and the associated accent, don't exactly sound like Sir Laurence Olivier themselves.  "Yo, dis guy sounds like some redneck or sumthin', whaddanidiot!!"

BCB: The two "defensive" spots in your lineup are third base and catcher, for Pedro Feliz and Carlos Ruiz (hey, they rhyme...kind of) respectively.  Both of them have good defensive reputations--are they deserved?  Is it worth having Feliz manning a typically offensive position despite his ~300 OBP?  Or maybe, at this point, anything would feel like an upgrade on Wes Helms?

PB: It's probably wrong to answer this question based on emotion, but for the first time since Scott Rolen left Philadelphia, I don't tense up the instant a ball is hit hard toward the third baseman when Pedro Feliz is playing.  Whether that presents any real value vis-a-vis wins and losses is unlikely, but it's made the game-viewing experience that much more enjoyable for me.  He also had a (probably unmaintainable) knack for close-and-late hitting, compiling a .943 OPS in those situations.

As for Carlos Ruiz... well, he has a decent walk rate and doesn't strike out too much.  His defense is fine, but I think everyone pretty much recognizes that he's a placeholder until the Lou Marson Era begins in Philly.

BCB: CBP has always had a rep as a hitter's paradise, but it looks like it played closer to neutral this year.  Any ideas why that happened? Any Phillies players who seem to benefit (or suffer) at home?

PB: I think moving the left field fence back before the 2006 season helped a bit.  I also think that, while home runs remain inflated, the shorter fences shrink the outfield, leading to more flyball outs and fewer doubles and triples, which mitigates damage done by high home run totals.

There is also some speculation that the weather -- it was a relatively mild summer in the Delaware Valley -- suppressed home run totals in contrast with a normally hot, humid Philadelphia summer.

I also think a lot of the reputation comes from the introduction of the somewhat deserved meme into the league and media consciousness ("In that bandbox, NO lead is safe!") that just spiralled out of control until it became incontrovertible fact.  And I have to love the soundbites from opposing pitchers who get bombed there: "That's not a home run in any other park."  Hey, Genius, your guys get the same field and same dimensions.  Deal with it.  John Smoltz is the worst at this.

Anecdotally, Pat Burrell is always the guy who gets pegged as a CBP beneficiary; however, his home/road splits this season do not bear this out (.786 OPS at home, .964 OPS on the road).  Ryan Howard certainly seems to poke a lot of his opposite field shots into the first couple of rows in left; he hit 26 homers at home this year, against 22 on the road, so it's not like it was a monumental difference.

BCB: One more. True or Super-True: The gritty veteran presence of Geoff Jenkins, even when injured, played a huge part in propelling the Phillies to the playoffs.

PB: Geoff Jenkins and Brett Favre both left Wisconsin in the same year. COINCIDENCE?!

Geoff needed his lookalike closer to him.  The Jets are just 70 miles up the Turnpike from Philly.  That's all it is.

BCB: Thanks, Peter!  I think we can all agree that whoever wins this series should go the World Series.  Especially if it's the Brewers.

I've been furiously emailing with some Phillies bloggers for the last couple of days, but it's been a bit asymmetrical.  Since three of them wanted to do Q&As with me, I figured I could take advantage of their numbers and split up a monster preview Q&A into three parts.  I'll be posting a couple of other previews later on today.

Handling the offense is Tim Malcolm from Phillies Nation.  Tim is currently plowing through a seven-part NLDS preview, so it's definitely worth stopping over there and reading up.  Here's what Tim had to say:

BCB: The Phillies offense is obviously impressive--five regulars have .349+ OBPs.  Who's the one guy you want at the plate with the game on the line?

Tim Malcolm: The obvious answer is Ryan Howard. Look at his .352 September with 11 homers and 32 runs batted in. But he gets a lot of knocks early — his average sinks below .200 once the game goes over two hours. Of course, it's hard going against a guy who has lately knocked in some big runs (I'm reminded of an eighth-inning homer to tie a game with Atlanta), but in a close playoff series, against top relief pitching, I'm a little more hesitant to go with the big man.

Instead, I'll take Pat Burrell, who has a knack for big hits in big moments. Just ask Billy Wagner. And he does have an OPS of 1.078 in those calculated "late-and-close" situations. Is this a ridiculous choice? Maybe.
 
BCB: Ryan Howard got off to a dreadful start, but if anything, he finished even bigger.  Did he change anything at any point in the season, or is streakiness par for the course?

TM: There's no singular answer for this question, because nobody knows. We know Howard heats up as the marathon reaches the final mile. He's a career .302 second-half hitter, as opposed to .255 before the break. We know he can be streaky, because this season he stunk in April, sparkled in May, stunk in June, sparkled in July, stunk in August, sparkled in September. We also know he was injured last season, and didn't heat up until he fully recovered.

I tend to think Howard gets better with the more he sees. And he can adjust to pitchers throwing away, and throwing low. He has been able to get to balls and spray them for hits, whereas earlier this season he'd strike out easily on bad balls. So call it a matter of adjustment.
 
BCB: Jimmy Rollins stole 47 bases in 50 attempts.  That's just incredible. But...do you think he can successfully run on Jason Kendall?  You may not be aware of this, but in an exhibition game, Kendall threw out Olympic sprinter Tyson Gay.

TM: The Phillies running game vs. Kendall (Really? Tyson Gay? [ed. note: yes, really. ok, maybe not]) will be one of the most interesting storylines of the series. Kendall has always been fantastic [ed. note: Kendall has gritted away all memory of 2007!], and the Phils as a whole can run the basepaths efficiently. Credit first base coach Davy Lopes, who has engineered the most efficient base-stealing troupe in baseball history. Rollins is example No. 1 — since Lopes has been manning first, Rollins is 88-for-97 in steals.

How so efficient? Lopes times each pitcher, and if the pitcher is a fraction slower than normal, Lopes will let his runner wait for the right pitch. With Kendall back there, it'll push some of those speeds, and I'm sure Lopes will be a little more careful with giving runners the green light. If anything, look for Phillie runners to give pitchers fits at first instead of blasting toward second.
 
BCB: Who are the first pinch-hitters off the bench for Charlie Manuel?

TM: Manuel's favorite pinch bat is the game's best, Greg Dobbs. "Roy Hobbs" Dobbs is striking at .355 with two homers and 16 runs batted in as a pinch hitter. His 22 pinch hits are a single-season franchise record. He'll enter the game in run-scoring opportunities against right-handed pitching.

Late-season pickup Matt Stairs might be a "we-need-a-homer-now" option. From the right side, the first guy off the bench might be So Taguchi. While his .220 average has inspired little confidence, Manuel likes his veteran makeup and playoff experience. Eric Bruntlett will also get time, maybe as a defensive replacement for Pat Burrell.
 
BCB: What the hell is going on with Jayson Werth?  I mean, I remember when the verdict on him was that he was a 4th or 5th OF, maybe a platoon player at best.  Even against righties, he held his own this year.

TM: The popular opinion is now that Werth is finally regularly healthy, he has become the player his first-round scouting report read. He came along nicely toward the end of 2007, and this year broke out with his three-homer game against Toronto.

What I like most about Werth is he can do almost everything. He's a 25-homer threat, can hit singles and doubles, can steal bases (20 of them), can glide from first to third on a single, can make plays in right field. And you're right — while Werth murders lefties (.303 with an MLB-best 16 HR against them), he has come around vs. righties. Chalk that up to more experience against righties. He still needs to work a little more on beating them, but he's clearly made his mark as an everyday guy.

BCB: Be honest: Are you, or have you ever been, a Pat Burrell hater?  Do you want him back next year?

TM: There was a time I fretted every Burrell at bat. You'd see him look at strike one, then swing close at strike two, maybe fouling it off. Then you'd cringe as the pitcher dialed up the obvious breaking ball away and in the dirt. And almost everytime Burrell would fire off a hapless swing that looked more Ping than Louisville Slugger. He doesn't do that as often, though he showed signs of reverting in the second half this season.

I do appreciate his solid power, his knack for getting on base, and his clutch knocks. But the facts state he can't patrol left field that well anymore, and without sufficient rest, he's prone to unraveling. Earlier this season I would've handed him a two-year deal worth $12M per campaign. Now I might wish him a fond farewell to the Junior Circuit. I'm not sure how much longer Burrell can play as a two-dimensional hitter in the National League, and I don't really want to gamble a couple years on it.
 
BCB: And finally... the offense just didn't show up in the NLDS last year. Most of those guys are back this year--do you think the experience is going to change things, or are you worried that the big stage will pose a problem again?

TM: Last season's exit was incredibly frustrating because we fans never saw the NLDS Phillies before the NLDS. We weren't ready for Utley laying an egg, for Howard being pretty empty, for Rollins shutting down, etc. But this season we saw the Phils go through a two-month stretch where they had to scrape for runs and hope for a homer or three to win a game. Suddenly the NLDS Phillies were playing in July and August. But the really good, spot-on Phillie offense came back in September, when they were down a few games.

I am worried about the big stage because this offense seems to press and play for the bomb when they're drenched in limelight. The key, to me, is Shane Victorino. He stepped up when everyone decided the only way to hit a baseball was over 330 feet. He roped singles, turned singles into doubles, even hit a couple lucky four-baggers. And when he's on, he'll score, even from the sixth spot in the order. If the Phils are going to play loose baseball in the postseason, Victorino will be leading the charge.

BCB: Thanks, Tim!

Here's a tradition I'd like to see more of.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps

You can either stop holding your breath, or prepare to hold it for 15 more days: the Brewers' deadline to make a decision on Jeff Weaver has been extended to June 15.

Apparently David Riske has no new structural damage, but is taking longer than expected to recover. That's bad news all around. Of course, Salomon Torres is pretty excited about getting to close games.

So last night the Brewers got 3 hits and won. That's a stark contrast from August 24, 2002, when they got 20 hits and lost, tying the tenth highest hit total in a nine inning loss of all time. Recondite Baseball has the full list at that link. Or, you could stay here and watch me struggle with bad segues and awkward linking.

In the fanposts yesterday, Greg8370 mentioned a report that the Brewers might be looking to move their AA team to the Eastern League, and had been mentioned as a candidate to play home games in Norwich, CT. After a brief search this morning, I found the column mentioning it. Sounds like the Defenders are having some real problems with the Giants organization, mainly tied to the fact that the Giants don't like the ballpark dimensions, and also don't like playing 30-degree home games. I think I'd stick with Huntsville. I emailed the reporter, though, to see where he got the rumor from.

UPDATE: I've been in touch with Joe Perez, the writer from the Norwich Bulletin. You can see our conversation here .

So yesterday afternoon I had a moment to kill, and I got an email from the Brewers. They really wanted me to vote (25 times) to get some Brewers in the starting lineup of the All-Star Game. They've also posted a story about how close Braun is to only being 4 spots back of the leaders. So I sat down with the stats, picked out the best candidate at each position...and didn't vote for a single Brewer. Here's the ballot I clicked and reclicked and submitted 25 times:

AL:
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Kevin Youkilis
2B: Ian Kinsler
3B: Joe Crede
SS: Michael Young
OF: Milton Bradley
OF: Josh Hamilton
OF: Magglio Ordonez
DH: David Ortiz

NL:
C: Brian McCann
1B: Lance Berkman
2B: Dan Uggla
3B: Chipper Jones
SS: Hanley Ramirez
OF: Nate McLouth
OF: Pat Burrell
OF: Adam Dunn

On injuries:

Pirates P Zach Duke will get an extra day before his next start to allow a blister to heal.
Carlos Guillen is battling some hemorrhoids his manager seems a little too eager to talk about.
Marlins P Scott Olsen still isn't getting velocity back after an exceptionally long outing against the Brewers weeks ago.
Troy Percival collapsed falling off the mound last night and has a tight hamstring. Grant Balfour may be called up in his place.
A's OF Ryan Sweeney had to be taken to the hospital for X-rays after fouling a ball off his foot.
Frank Thomas may be headed to the DL after an MRI on his strained right quad revealed major inflammation.
Blue Jays C Gregg Zaun has been placed on the DL with inflammation in his elbow.

Does the price include my computer and rent for mom's basement? The Juiced Sports Blog ranks the 100 most valuable sports blogs.

It didn't crack the top 100, but I think this post is pretty valuable: The Padres recently acquired Cha Seung Baek, and Paul DePodesta discusses the move.

Oh, and a hydrochloric acid spill is a pretty good reason to suspend a game.

Drink up.

So I missed last night's game to go see the new Narnia movie. A terrible mistake. Who told Disney that Narnia was just supposed to be a darker version of Shrek?

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps

Here are some photos of last night's heroes: Hardy, Hall, and Cameron

Remember yesterday, when some kid named Eli destroyed his credibility by suggesting the Brewers were getting ready to DFA Bill Hall? Today he thinks they'll trade Ben Sheets. I'm going to go ahead and pull him off my reading list so he'll stop wasting our time.

Coming off a split with the Nats, the Brewers have dropped to 20th in the most recent Bugs and Cranks poll.

Ok, so Tuesday was light on Brewer news, but it's heavy on injuries:

Pat Burrell was scratched from last night's game with stiffness in his neck.
Eric Byrnes has been placed on the DL to give him some time to recover from tweaked hamstrings.
Braves OF Matt Diaz has been placed on the DL with a strained PCL in his knee after a collision with the wall last night.
Travis Hafner missed his second straight game last night with a sore shoulder.
Yankees P Ian Kennedy left last night's start with a strained muscle in his rib cage.
Daisuke Matsuzaka complained of shoulder fatigue last night after the third inning, but was still sent out for one more inning before being pulled.
Cards P Joel Piniero has missed one start and may miss more with a sore groin.
Gary Sheffield has been placed on the DL with a strained oblique.
Frank Thomas left last night's game with a strained quad and will get an MRI today.
Matt Wise is headed back to the DL with weakness in his shoulder.

Tim Lincecum isn't hurt at the moment, but Dave Pinto at Baseball Musings is scared the Giants will run him into the ground. He threw over 120 pitches last night, and has gone 110 or more five times this season.

Oh, and I love Mitch Hedberg.

Drink up.

It's only two games, but we are facing the Phillies at Miller Park this week.  To get us ready for the mini-series, I fired some questions off to Tom Goyne, who writes the excellent Phillies blog, Balls Sticks and Stuff.  Here's what he had to say:

We're not heartbroken to have parted ways with Geoff Jenkins, but we do have our memories.  What are your impressions so far?

The Phillies don't have Geoff Jenkins.  You may not have heard, but Brett Favre retired from football and now platoons in right field with Jayson Werth for the Phillies.  Offensively he fits in pretty well with the Phillies in that he seems to have an all or nothing swing.
 
I asked a Mets blogger a little while ago which team in the division she feared the most, and she picked the Braves over the Phils.  How do see these three teams finishing, and what will make the difference?

I think making a prediction on how the Phillies, Mets and Braves are going to finish out the NL East is a foolhardy exercise.   The three are just too close to make a call with any sort of confidence.  For the Braves, its all about the health of their 1999 All-Star starting rotation, or, how well they fill the holes.  Come to think of it, thats what's going to make the difference overall in the division, whoever can fill their injury holes best.
 
Brad Lidge, Tom Gordon, no Brett Myers ... there are some familiar names in the bullpen, and I can see this group putting together anywhere from a pretty good season down to an unmitigated disaster. What do you expect?

So far they have been pretty good this season, and the pen was pretty good in the September stretch run too.  The one name you left out was JC Romero.  Guy pitches two, three days in a row all the time and doesn't bat an eye.  Since the Phils picked him up off the waiver wire in June of '07, he's pitched 61 innings and given up only 5 ER.
 
It seems like Phillies fans have a complicated relationship with Pat Burrell.  He's off to a great start in his walk year.  What do you see happening with Burrell and the Phils at the end of this season?

It's definitely been a pendular love/hate type thing.  I'd love to say I haven't been one of those people but I have.  In '06 he struck out looking with runners on base 587 times.  Last season he carried the team in the second half, particularly when his buddy Chase Utley was out for a month with a broken hand.  Plus, he looks like he cares now, whereas before, he always seemed indifferent.  Look at video of the Phillies clinching the NL East last year and you'll see that Burrell was the first one to the pitcher's mound and he was in the dugout.  In the end, you just have to accept him for what he is -- an unathletic .260 hitter with great plate discipline and good power when he connects. 

As far as next season is concerned, I think that is one of the reasons Favre/Jenkins was signed to a two-year deal, to protect against him leaving.  He says he wants to stay, and does appear to enjoy it here, but you can look around the league and see that everywhere right before a player leaves for somewhere else for better money--the Phils are probably going to low-ball him because they really want to use savings from his salary coming off the books to pay for the increases in salary Utley, Ryan Howard, and Cole Hamels are due.
 
The Phils have some great young pitching, but they aren't known for their upper-level prospects.  What's your take on the minor league system, and is there anybody we should be watching for in the second half?

It's hard for me to see any Phillies prospect having an impact this year, perhaps maybe pitchers Josh Outman or Andrew Carpenter, but even they are at AA.  One player I would watch is Greg Golson, a five-tool outfielder that finally seems to be getting it after being drafted in 2004.  He probably won't make it to the big club at all because they want him playing everyday, and rightly so, but he ripped the cover off the ball in spring training and has a .390 OBP so far in the early going, which is tremendous given how strikezone illiterate he was up to this point.

Thanks Tom!

Also, Tom asked me some questions.  Not that you need to hear any more of what I have to say, but if you are so inclined, here's the link .