Some things to read while making yourself look more intellectual.

Today's Mug is a little short on time, so my apologies if it seems rushed.

Let's open with a Sabathia Smorgasbord:

• The Dodgers are reportedly getting ready to make an offer.
• The Giants may be getting ready to do so as well.
• The Yankees may be putting a deadline on their offer to Sabathia.
• The White Sox may be considering getting involved.

Chone Smith is the latest to attempt to attach a dollar value to free agent pitchers. He has Sabathia as the mot valuable pitcher, at $27.7 million for 2009 and $81.8 over the next three years. Ben Sheets is the fourth most valuable, at $15.7 million for 2009 and $45.9 for three seasons.

If the Brewers lose Sheets, they may get better defensively. Baseball Musings' Probabilistic Model of Range ranked Brewer pitchers dead last defensively in 2008, and Ben Sheets was the worst pitcher, scoring 57.52, where 100 is average. Dave Bush was also near the bottom.

As noted in the FanShots, the Brewers added four minor league pitchers to their 40-man roster (Mark Rogers, Omar Aguilar, Cody Scarpetta and Alexandre Periard) to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. Of the four, only Aguilar strikes me as someone another team would consider keeping on their roster all season. Meanwhile, Paul DePodesta explains why adding a player to your 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft makes it easier to lose them later.

Four Brewer prospects (although one is a former Brewer now) made the TOPPS AA All-Stars: Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar, Michael Brantley and Angel Salome.

On the flip side, Corey Hart's 2008 OBP was the fourth worst among full time outfielders.

On the hot stove:

Marlins: The team and Hanley Ramirez reportedly have differing opinions on whether or not he should play winter ball. The team has told him to stay home and rest.
Phillies: Could be looking to make a move on Raul Ibanez.
Royals: Acquired Coco Crisp from the Red Sox for RP Ramon Ramirez.

In other news, the owners have agreed to ensure all playoff games go at least nine innings, but won't make a decision on blackout policy until January.

A scheduling note: I'm leaving in a few hours to go hunting for several days, and while I'll be available to write on occasion in the evenings, my mornings will be tied up. Roguejim has agreed to handle the Mug for a couple of days early next week, and I'll be back on Friday. The Mug may take a couple of days off for the holiday in the middle. While I'm gone, I'm still hoping to finish my AFL recap and I'll likely be lurking from time to time.

Oh, and I'm not worried about increasing competition.

Drink up.

First-time poster Mykenk came up with an illuminating spreadsheet last night in an attempt to compare the current Brewers and Yankees offers that CC Sabathia has on the table.  (Thanks!)  As roguejim pointed out yesterday, we're comparing apples and oranges if we look simply at the total numbers of $100MM and $140MM.

We've talked about this in fits and starts in comment threads, but I wanted to summarize what some of the issues are.  Of course, who knows if Sabathia and his agent are looking at it in this much detail -- they might be as smitten with the extra $40MM as the mainstream media seems to be.

Cost of Living. Depending on to what degree Sabathia wants to engage with his new community, that'll be more expensive in New York.  First and foremost, he'll pay more taxes as a part- or full-time resident of NYC.  If he wants to buy a celeb-style compound for his family, it might take $20MM for such a place on Long Island; for the same amount, he could probably buy Manitowoc.

This is a tough adjustment for us to figure, because we don't know just how much money CC would spend in NY or MKE.  With that caveat, I think the taxes alone would come close to an extra 10% bite on Yankees earnings.  Mykenk's spreadsheet estimates something closer to 15%, which isn't all that far-fetched, either.

So...if we use the 10% number, $140 looks more like $126--a yearly value of just barely more than the Brewers offer.  If we up that to 15%, the Yankees are down to $119, or slightly less on an annualized basis.

Sabathia's Next Contract.  This is the toughest thing to estimate, but it might be the most important.  If CC pitches well for the next five or six years, he'll go back on the market as a premium free agent.  He's now 28, so even if he took a six-year deal, he'd be a FA at age 34.  For comparison, Derek Lowe is 35 (and certainly not the impact player that CC is) and he'll get a pretty nice contract this offseason, if not the "Zito-like" deal that Boras is asking for.

It's well-nigh impossible to guess what CC would be worth in 2013 or 2014, but I think we can agree on one thing: The sooner he goes on the market again, the more valuable he will be at that time.  The flip side: The longer his current deal, the more likely he'll get hurt or lose effectiveness before he sees free agency again.

If I were Sabathia (insert joke here), I'd go for a four- or five-year deal with the highest possible per-year value.  In other words, I'd rather have $100MM over four years ($25MM per year) than $140MM over six (~$23MM per year).  That way, I'd make more money over the next four years, and I'd have a chance to sign another megabucks deal while I was still in my prime.

I'm hesitant to even try to quantify the dollar difference between going back on the market in 2012, 2013, or 2014.  Let's just say that, all else equal, going back on the market in 2012 or 2013 could turn out to be worth more than than going back on the market in 2014 or 2015.

Present Value.  One thing that tends to be ignored in free-agent season is that a dollar right now isn't the same as a dollar in year six.  That's true in the real world, but it's especially true in baseball, where the rate of salary inflation generally outstrips real-world inflation.

Again, Mykenk's spreadsheet gives us some good numbers to work with.  He invents likely backloaded contract schemes -- for the Yankees, an annual salary in a six-year $140MM contract goes from $17MM next year up to $28.4MM in each of the last two years.

But...that $28.4MM isn't really $28.4MM.  That extra year the Yankees have on the table is "only" worth--in 2009 dollars--$22.4MM.  As with the cost-of-living adjustment, that hardly makes it a slam-dunk decision for CC, but it does knock another $1MM per year off of the Yankees offer.

Moot Point?  As you can tell, we're looking at a lot of difficult-to-quantify considerations.  Of course, there are plenty of other issues for CC to consider that are not money-related -- does he want to share a locker room with A-Rod? Is he already sick of hearing about the 1982 Brewers? Are pinstripes slimming? -- not to mention the pressure from the player's union to take the richest, longest deal on the table.

But, if we try to quantify all three of these aspects, as Mykenk did, we get an interesting conclusion--from CC's financial perspective, the Brewers and Yankees offers are basically the same.

Some things to read while waiting for your gummy legos to solidify.

So the Brewers are still waiting for a response from CC Sabathia regarding their contract offer. Meanwhile, Home Run Derby thinks Sabathia signing in New York would be the worst possible outcome for everyone involved.

In the meantime, the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles have all turned their attention to A.J. Burnett.

As I mentioned yesterday, the 2009 Marcels are out. My spreadsheet is sitting in exactly the same condition it was yesterday, but Balking Traditionalism has combined the 2009 Marcels with Sean Smith's 2009 defensive projections to create a starting point for 2009 Brewer projections.

That's about all that's out there for Brewer news today, so let's move right to the hot stove:

Blue Jays: The team still appears interested in bringing back A.J. Burnett, but beyond that they may not be players in free agency.
Cubs: Signed Ryan Dempster to a 4-year deal yesterday. This may preclude them from trading for Jake Peavy. They are, however, interested in acquiring Mark Teahen from the Royals.
Marlins: Placed C Mike Rabelo on waivers to remove him from their 40-man roster.
Orioles: Are still in the hunt for Mark Teixiera.
Tigers: Have reportedly been in touch with free agent RP Joe Beimel.

Another BBWAA Award, another day of stories about how the BBWAA blew it. Chuckie Hacks noticed a 5th place vote for Jason Bartlett. Beyond the Box Score has a step-by-step plan for discrediting the BBWAA Awards.

The saga is over: The Mariners have named a new manager, and it's Don Wakamatsu.

There are some records in baseball that may never be approached again. Ripken's consecutive games played streak. DiMaggio's hitting streak. Cy Young's wins. But does 70 home runs belong on that list? Beyond the Box Score takes a look at what it would take and gives an edge to, of all people, Rangers prospect Chris Davis.

Depending on how you like your off-topic conclusion, I've got three options for you today:

• The last two issues of "By the Numbers," the newsletter of SABR's Statistical Analysis Committee, are now available online.
• It's a Woot-off day.
• This guy can hit a baseball with nunchucks.

Drink up.

Some things to read while firming up your evening plans.

I don't really have much for you today, but the 2009 Marcel Projections are out, so if you've got a big empty gap in your schedule that's usually filled by the Mug but isn't today, you could go play with those. I've got them open in another window right now, waiting for a handful of free minutes.

Everyone else with time on their hands is talking about the NL MVP voting and the various BBWAA writers who came in with off the wall selections. This time the conversation hits close to home, as one of the writers taking a lot of criticism is our own Tom H, who had Albert Pujols seventh on his ballot, behind Prince Fielder. That's both the lowest Pujols appeared and the highest Fielder appeared on any ballot. Let's wander through the field of frustration for a moment:

• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs wants to know how Chase Utley finished 15th. So do some of the commenters in this FanShot.
• Chuckie Hacks called Tom H.'s ballot "asinine" and wonders how Carlos Delgado could've ended up ahead of Pujols.
• Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Box Score says the most valuable Brewer wasn't neither Braun or Fielder, it was J.J. Hardy.
• Baseball Musings thought Braun belonged around eighth. That's about where I expected him to finish too.
• The commenters over at Baseball Think Factory are having some fun with Tom H.'s ballot too.
• Goatriders of the Apocalypse thought the 2008 NL MVP was...Brad Lidge? I still have no idea how Lidge got two first place votes.
• The Griddle wasn't a fan of Tom H.'s ballot either.
• Lookout Landing is also unimpressed with Chase Utley's 15th place finish.
• Peter Gammons is upset about Hanley Ramirez's 11th place finish.
• Todd Zolecki reveals the one voter who left Ryan Howard off of his MVP ballot.

Now, moving on: I thought we had already heard the Sabathia Sweepstakes chronicled from every angle, but we hadn't...no one had asked LeBron James. That problem was remedied yesterday.

Also, Hot Foot thinks the Mets should sign Ben Sheets.

If the BBWAA voters had seen this, they probably would've voted about the same anyway: Bill James says Prince Fielder is the seventh worst baserunner in baseball.

If only all the decisions were this easy: The Brewers must either place Mark Rogers on the 40-man roster, or risk losing him in the Rule 5 Draft. I don't think there's much risk there.

Everyone knows versatility is an important skill. That's why the Brewers had two catchers in the top ten and bottom ten in Recondite Baseball's minor league CS% leaderboards.

On the hot stove:

Braves: Submitted a contract offer to Will Ohman yesterday.
Giants: Signed Jeremy Affeldt yesterday, the first free agent of the offseason to sign with a new team.
Mets: Are reportedly making offers to Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes and Derek Lowe.
Phillies: are reportedly pursuing relievers Juan Cruz, Doug Brocail and Russ Springer.
Red Sox: Tim Wakefield may retire due to pain in his throwing shoulder.

Elsewhere, it appears the Mariners could announce a new manager as soon as today and it won't be Ned Yost or Willie Randolph.

Matt LaPorta has had quite the season. He played for two minor league teams, was part of a blockbuster trade, got hit in the head by a pitch in the Olympics, and got the flu and fouled a pitch off his ankle in Venezuela. He returned home yesterday and my guess would be he's ready for a break.

A tech note: MLB.com is dumping Microsoft Silverlight and switching over to Flash. All I knew about Silverlight was that it was a pain to have to tell my computer I didn't want it every time I logged into Gameday Audio. Good riddance.

Oh, and the Brewers never really found another blogger to pick up the slack after Taylor Green was sent home from the AFL, so we'll have to settle for Mariner prospect Joe Woerman's story about getting nailed by a speed limit enforcement camera.

Drink up.

Some things to read instead of simulating a universe with rocks.

So if you missed the announcement yesterday, I decided to go ahead and create the Brew Crew Ball WhatifSports League. If you have no idea what I'm talking about, click this link for an explanation. There are only 12 teams in the league and two have already been created, so if you want one of the 10 remaining spots, click the first link soon.

As the trade market continues to swirl, you may find yourself wondering, "Has anyone ever created a database featuring every trade Doug Melvin has ever made as a major league general manager?" Yes, someone has.

There are more than a handful of free agent predictions out there today, so I'll just dump them into bullet points and you can decide for yourself what's worth noting:

• Fire Brand of the American League predicts the Brewers will pick up Jeremy Affeldt and Brad Penny, and has the Brewers as the runner-up to land Juan Cruz and Jon Garland.
• The Pinstriper has the Brewers signing Brad Penny, Juan Cruz, Jeremy Affeldt, Russell Branyan and Brad Wilkerson.
• Baseball Blogging Network says the Brewers would be a good fit for Trevor Hoffman. So does FakeTeams.
• A monkey drawing names and teams out of a plastic cup thinks CC Sabathia will be a Marlin.

Let's move right into a Sabathia Smorgasbord:

• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs estimates Sabathia's value at 6 years, $162 million.
• Blue Jays beat writer Jordan Bastian says the Yankees' big offer to Sabathia could impact the Jays' negotiations with A.J. Burnett.
• Chone Smith has a projection for the 2009 Yankees that includes Sabathia, Burnett AND Derek Lowe.
• The Mets reportedly are not pursuing Sabathia after all.
• Sabathia received one vote in ESPN's NL MVP balloting.
• Oh, it's THOSE Girls has made a list of pros and cons for Sabathia to consider before signing or not signing in New York.

Staying on the mound, there are a few notes out there regarding Ben Sheets. Crawfish Boxes has combined predictions for the Astros for 2009 and the monetary value of a win to make the case that, in Houston, signing Ben Sheets could pay for itself. USS Mariner thinks the Mariners should also be keeping a close eye on him. Finally, Recondite Baseball noted that Sheets was one of only twelve pitchers since 1990 to post a season with a WHIP under 1 and pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. (Sheets did it in 2004)

Will the Brewers trade one high priced, high injury risk pitcher for another? Adam McCalvy says the Brewers are not a likely candidate to sign Kerry Wood. Neither are the Tigers.

On defense: Baseball Musings Probabilistic Model of Range has the Brewers 23rd in baseball in first base defense, and Prince Fielder well below average at 95.26. On the flip side, Brewer catchers ranked first, and Jason Kendall was the best full-time defensive catcher in all of baseball at 109.97. It's worth noting that a measure of range isn't really the complete picture on catcher defense.

Two prospect notes today: The Official Site has another look at Lorenzo Cain's impressive season in the AFL, and Hot-prospects.net thinks the Brewers will have Brent Brewer play in Brevard County for the third straight season in 2009.

Elsewhere, around the hot stove:

A's: Might be looking to trade Bobby Crosby.
Braves: Are reportedly out of the running for Jake Peavy but may have interest in A.J. Burnett.
Cardinals: Are reportedly making left-handed relief and shortstop a priority.
Cubs: May consider offering a deal to Randy Johnson.

As Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood, Trevor Hoffman and others continue to sit on the free agent market, Big League Stew asks when everyone started hating closers. The answer is pretty resounding: "When they started asking for 5/$75 deals."

Does the ball fly differently at Miller Park based on the month? Beyond the Box Score did the math and the answer, perhaps surprisingly, is yes.

FanGraphs has resurrected their "Get to know a stat" series. The first two up this time are First pitch strike percentage and outside swing percentage.

Looking for something to do in between Mugs? Apparently MLB.com is hiring. I think I may polish my resume a bit today.

Oh, and as someone witnessing way too much wedding planning, seeing virtually every picture taken at Chad Cordero's wedding was a bit more than I needed this morning.

Drink up.

The New York Yankees reportedly offered free agent left-hander CC Sabathia the biggest pitching contract in major-league history Friday, which drew a somewhat puzzled response from Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin.

"It sounds like they're overbidding," Melvin said. "If the speculation is true that we've offered CC $100 million, why would you offer $140 million? Why wouldn't you offer $110 million?"

That's from today's Milwaukee Journal Sentinal. I'm not sure what Doug Melvin's point is here. At first glance, he comes off as a whiny, small-market GM. As always, though, there are a few ways to look at what he said:

1. Melvin's initial offer was more than $100 million, but that number was leaked to try and get other teams to go under the Brewers' offer. The Yankees' offer shattered those plans.
2. Melvin is upset that this deal might make it that much harder for the Brewers to go after any other free agent pitchers this winter.
3. Melvin is frustrated at the way this unfolded, was venting, and it came out poorly. Which leads to...
4. Melvin was joking around. Tom Haudricourt said there would a Melvin joke about the Yankees overbidding somewhere in today's story.

Feel free to add your own more logical reasons below. Here's more detail on mine.

First up, the idea Melvin was trying to undermine other teams. I'm sure Melvin feels his offer is a decent one that isn't much below market value. At the same time, he realizes that the Brewers clearly have an upper limit on what they can afford to offer. By leaking his offer is around $100 million for five years, Melvin may have been trying to keep other teams' initial offers in the $120-130 million for six years range. If the Brewers' real offer was closer to $105-110 million for five years, they would still be in the thick of things. At that point, Melvin could do the same thing he did when acquiring CC: give the other side a few days to come up with an answer, pointing out the deal is competitive and Milwaukee loves itself some Sabathia. Unfortunately, the Yankees' $140 million offer is above what the Brewers could match. Though not unexpected, it certainly wrecks the above plan. Furthermore, instead of Melvin confidently asking for an answer by next week, doing so now makes it look like he wants the misery to end sooner.

But maybe it's not really about Sabathia after all. If CC was willing to take the Brewers' offer, that would be great and Melvin wouldn't have to worry about the price of other good starting pitchers on the market. Even if he signed a similar deal with another team, the backup plans aren't going to cost much more than what he figured. However, if CC signs a richer deal, that raises the cost of any other starter out there. If Plan B goes from $11-12 million per season to $15 million, that hurts the Brewers. In this scenario, Melvin could tolerate CC getting paid $20 million per year (whether by the Brewers or not). By jacking up CC's price by $3 million per season ("overbidding") on the first day of free agency, the starting pitcher market just got smaller for Milwaukee. Again not unexpected, but painful all the same.

Now let's turn to the frustration angle. It must be tough to be a small-market GM. One day you're ending a playoff drought that lasted more than a quarter-century and the next day half the team is exploring free agency. You know you can't sign everyone back (and, truthfully, you wouldn't offer to a couple guys), but you'd like to keep certain pieces. The fans are giddy in the wake of the playoffs and are seeing 30-flag trophies each season for the next decade. You know a good portion of those fans will stick around regardless. After all, they stayed when Scotty Pods was traded, they tolerated shipping Lyle Overbay to a different country, they understood the Carlos Lee trade, and they gave you the benefit of the doubt in the Cordero departure. But CC is different. In the eyes of millions, he's why you broke that playoff drought. If there's someone to keep around, it's CC. What's more, you think you've got a real chance to keep him. The owner is willing to open the checkbook, the guy seemed happy in Milwaukee, and you've got a competitive offer out there. Then the big boys step in, blow your offer out of the water, and reaffirm that you really didn't have a chance in the first place. While you're enjoying Quantum of Solace at the local moving picture show and feigning interest at the 34th mustache comb your grandkids bought you "just because," those fast talkers from New York wrecked your whole damn plan. Anyone would be frustrated.

So when the local beat reporter calls you to get your reaction to the New York offer, you darkly suggest they overbid. You realize this sounds like sour grapes and that's not the image you want out there, but at the same time you don't really want to hide how you feel. So you chuckle and try and say it was a joke. The reporter will understand, he's been around the game, he knows what's up. He'll get the idea it was a joke out there. You don't really think about it until Sunday, when you are perusing the reporter's Sunday column and you remember why he's not a comic. It's not a big deal though, life goes on, and he's still a decent guy. But wait! Now the quote has hit ESPN, and they aren't acting like you're joking at all. They make you seem like another of those whiny small-market GM's upset at the business aspect of today's game. Truthfully, you are, but you'll slowly back away from those comments in the days and weeks ahead. You'll lap up the sympathy from Brewers fans who will blame the Yankees for Sabathia leaving, not you. Right now, though, you're looking for Brian Shouse's phone number. They still like him, too. Just another day in Milwaukee...

Some things to read while waiting to see The Fort Wayne Tin Caps' new uniforms. Spoiler alert: The team will most likely not wear tin caps.

It's quiet this morning, but it likely won't stay that way for long as today is the first day teams can offer contracts to free agents from other teams. Brewed Sports wants the Brewers to make an early splash by signing Kerry Wood and Randy Johnson. Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks wants the Brewers to sign Eric Hinske. I'm just hoping the Brewers don't sign anyone who will join Eric Gagne, Jeff Suppan and Jeffrey Hammonds on a future version of this top ten list of worst contracts in Wisconsin sports history.

Baseball Digest Daily released their free agent rankings today. Since lists make a short Mug seem longer, here are the Brewer highlights:

• CC Sabathia is the top rated starting pitcher.
• Ben Sheets is the third rated starting pitcher.
• Russell Branyan is ranked third among third basemen.
• Ray Durham is ranked fourth among second basemen.
• Brian Shouse is the fifth rated lefty reliever.
• Mike Lamb is ranked fifth among third basemen.
• Gabe Kapler is ranked sixth among right fielders.
• Guillermo Mota is the sixth rated "utility reliever."
• Eric Gagne is the eighth rated closer.
• Craig Counsell is ranked eleventh among shortstops.

Depending on who you ask, the Mets may or may not make a play for CC Sabathia. MetsBlog downplays the possibility.

Technically, Salomon Torres could have been a free agent as well, but the Brewers exercised his option so he will be under team control if he decides to return. The Official Site has an overview of the bullpen situation.

As noted in the FanShots, Ryan Braun became the eighth Brewer in franchise history to win a Silver Slugger Award yesterday.

If Braun lives up to his Bill James projection for 2009, he might win another one: .301/.364/.620. Bill James projections for individual players are available on the player pages at FanGraphs. If you want the whole collection, you're supposed to buy the book. I sat down yesterday with a notepad file and Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis tool and discovered that, despite low projections for Mike Cameron and Bill Hall, a 2009 Brewer lineup featuring Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Fielder, Hart, Cameron, Hall, Kendall and the pitcher's spot projects to 4.965 runs per game. The 2008 Brewers only scored 4.630.

While I'm on the subject of stats, R.J. Anderson of Beyond the Box Score is working on numbers to quantify the volume of wins or losses added by a manager. His initial numbers have management costing the Brewers approximately .04 wins in 2008. I'm pretty sure Yost was responsible for more than that.

Does the entire Brewers' organization have defensive problems? No less than five Brewer prospects appear on Recondite Baseball's leaderboards for errors in the minor leagues this season.

Two trades were completed yesterday, one sending Nick Swisher to the Yankees and one sending Kevin Gregg to the Cubs. Two other stove notes today:

D-Backs: Negotiations with Randy Johnson have apparently hit an impasse, leading Johnson to declare free agency.
Marlins: The team is reportedly listening to offers but not actively seeking a trade involving Jeremy Hermida or Dan Uggla.

Do you love physics and want to use it to understand why a sidearmer's pitches have different movement? It's a bit much for me, but maybe Matt Lentzner of The Hardball Times' article is just what you were looking for.

Oh, and NL Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum is perpetuating the theory that he's only 15 by spending the offseason getting braces and a puppy.

Drink up.

Some things to read while waiting to see if you'll be able to get Trenni and the MLB Network in your area. Here's more on what the network will offer.

Ben Sheets appears to be the top story today: Jerry Crasnick has a nice piece on him at ESPN.com that touches on his injury history and mentions the Rangers and Astros as possible candidates to sign him. Baseball-Intellect rates Sheets the third best free agent, behind Manny Ramirez and CC Sabathia. Citi-Blog wants Sheets to be a Met.

On the subject of Sheets, I've added a new poll to see what you'd like the Brewers to offer him. Cast your vote today.

View From Bernie's Chalet wants Seth McClung to be the Brewers' next closer, now that Salomon Torres has retired. I'll have more on the bullpen later today, so be sure to check back after noon.

Between the Green Pillars is calling Bruce Seid's hiring as Director of Amateur Scouting "the biggest little hire of the week," and wants to make sure you didn't miss the significance. I guess I figured no one commented on it because I made a terrible joke in the Fanshot.

Tomorrow is the first day when free agents are allowed to talk money with other teams. Tom H. has a preview of the Sabathia sweepstakes. Before it gets too hot, let's see what else is on the stove:

D-Backs: Randy Johnson still has not filed for free agency, and is hoping to reach a deal to remain in Arizona.
Dodgers: The team is denying reports that they're listening to offers for C Russell Martin.
Marlins: The next Marlin on the move may be reliever Kevin Gregg, who spent much of the season as their closer before injuring his knee.
Padres: Could be on the verge of trading Jake Peavy to Atlanta for the Snorks.
Reds: David Weathers has not received a contract offer from the team yet, so he's assuming they're not interested in retaining him and preparing to move on.
White Sox: Jermaine Dye could be on the trading block, and team scouts are reportedly in Arizona watching Mets prospects play in the AFL.

Two interesting notes from the Mariners today: First, GM Jack Zduriencik is mulling over adding three more candidates to the list of potential hires before conducting second interviews. He says two former major league managers have been in touch regarding the opening. He stopped short of calling them "NY" and "WR."

Then, in a meeting with season ticket holders, Zduriencik said the Mariners are looking to create a "Department of Baseball Research." If they need someone who wanders around the web and gathers links every morning, I'll listen to offers.

Oh, and if you're out doing routine maintenance on your baseball field today, watch out for military training devices.

Drink up.

Some things to read while flashing gang signs to your astronomy buddies.

At the very least, today is off to a better start than yesterday, since I titled today's post "Wednesday's Frosty Mug" and it actually is Wednesday.

So, as you've probably read and perhaps even commented on, Salomon Torres announced his retirement yesterday. I don't think anyone is counting it as an absolute certainty that he won't pitch in 2009, but this makes it seem pretty likely. The Brew Town Beat recounts the story of Torres' final Brewer hat. Where have you gone, Andy Van Slyke? remembers the early career of Torres, including a four-year retirement and return to the big leagues via Korea. Al has some quotes from Doug Melvin and a look at what's left in the bullpen.

CC Sabathia finished fifth in the NL Cy Young voting, behind Tim Lincecum, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana and Brad Lidge. He finished fourth in the voting at BirdLand. I guess he'll have to settle for being Jeff Passan's #1 rated free agent. (h/t Bless You Boys)

Here are the other Brewers on the list, of 183 free agents:

8. Ben Sheets
40. Brian Shouse
48. Ray Durham
90. Gabe Kapler
91. Russell Branyan
105. Guillermo Mota
107. Mike Lamb
109. Craig Counsell
113. Eric Gagne

MLB FanHouse has their offseason preview for the Brewers, and says their #1 focus should be retaining Sabathia. I've decided my #1 focus for winter will be getting the sun to stay above the horizon longer. I'll let you know how that goes.

Ken Rosenthal has interesting logic. He notes that Doug Melvin doesn't seem to want to make trades unless they net pitching. Then, he suggests the Brewers should trade Mike Cameron and Prince Fielder to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera, Robinson Cano and "young pitching." Unless that young pitching is big enough to be the centerpiece of the deal, the answer is still no.

As he navigates through the offseason, it's important to remember Doug Melvin must be doing something right, as he's the Negro League Museum's 2008 NL Executive of the Year. This is much bigger than yesterday's "Good Guy Award."

Also worth noting: apparently Melvin has a good relationship with the Red Sox, or at least Tony Massarotti said so in his blog listing the Brewers as a possible trading partner with the Red Sox.

Baseball Musings' Probabilistic Model of Range has the Brewers eighth in left field defense in 2008, and Ryan Braun above average at 101.50. Does this officially make him a better defensive outfielder than Corey Hart, who rated slightly below average in right? I'm interested in hearing the debate.

Brewerfan.net has their season ending Power 50 up. Not a lot of big moves or surprising names in there. (h/t Bernie's Crew)

Here's what's simmering on the hot stove:

Blue Jays: C Gregg Zaun, who was upset over the way his request to be traded was handled, will not be back in 2009.
Cubs: Have reportedly offered Ryan Dempster a 4 year/$50 million deal.
Tigers: Kenny Rogers filed for free agency Tuesday. He could retire, but this will at least let him size up the market before making a decision.
Reds: Have reportedly contacted the Rockies to express interest in Willy Taveras, Garrett Atkins and Yorvit Torrealba.

Also, this isn't really hot stove news, but the Marlins may be in trouble with the Players Association regarding failure to pay per diem to players sent away from the team for rehab assignments.

What is a replacement level player? Sean Smith of The Hardball Times breaks it down for you.

Could a replacement level player add some value by bringing postseason experience to the table? Tangotiger suggests they might.

Oh, and if you've ever wondered what it's like to be in the front office of a team that's cutting ties with the face of its franchise and a first-ballot Hall of Famer, Paul DePodesta can offer some insight.

Drink up.

Some things to read while pondering the silver lining of the economic situation.

So the NL Cy Young Award will be announced today. Landon Evanson of Bugs & Cranks and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch both list the argument for CC Sabathia among their points to consider. Goold's post includes a poll, if you're into such things. Baseball Musings has Sabathia third on their imaginary ballot.

Speaking of Sabathia, the JS asked a sports economist at Vanderbilt to estimate how much money Sabathia will get this offseason. The guess: 5 years, $20-25 million. I fully expect the Yankees to have blown that figure out of the water by Friday afternoon, and the Angels and Dodgers could do it as well. Meanwhile, CC is packing up his stuff and waiting to see where he's headed next.

Yesterday, Geovany Soto and Evan Longoria won the NL and AL Rookie of the Year Awards, respectively. As they do annually, the BBWAA did something to lead us to believe they're incapable of handling this task. This year, three writers put Reds SP Edinson Volquez on their ballot despite the fact that he's not a rookie.

The Junkball Blues has six questions about young players on the Brewers and their ability to stop regression in 2009.

Two of those young players, J.J. Hardy and Ryan Braun, made Beyond the Box Score's list of the top 50 players in 2008. Hardy is also the subject of very vague trade mumblings involving the Twins.

Another one of those young players is Corey Hart, who rated slightly below average as a defensive right fielder. The Brewers ranked 18th as a team in right field defense.

Baseball Digest Daily says the Brewers have had the fourth best offseason so far. Apparently acquiring Casey McGehee carries a lot of weight. Hiring Bruce Seid as the new amateur scouting director wasn't mentioned.

So two weeks ago, Rick Peterson was mentioned as a possible candidate for the Brewers' pitching coach vacancy, but later dismissed as an option and the team hired Bill Castro from within. Buried, literally in the last paragraph of this Ken Rosenthal column, is a note that sheds some light on the situation:

It's been a few days, I guess, since we've talked about Gabe Kapler. For those of you who felt Kapler could have been a cheap option to replace Mike Cameron, here's something worth noting: Beyond the Box Score estimates his value for 2009 at $6.69 million. I doubt he'll get that, but $4-5 million wouldn't surprise me at all.

Two other awards to announce today: Chris Cody, who split the season between West Virginia and Brevard County and now is pitching in Hawai'i, has been named the Brewers Organizational Pitcher of the Year. Also, Doug Melvin will receive the Nice Guy Award at the annual Red Smith banquet in January in Appleton.

Speaking of Appleton, Chris Mehring of Rattler Radio is already getting excited about the projected Timber Rattlers roster for 2009.

In hot stove news, two trades went through yesterday. First, the A's acquired Matt Holliday from the Rockies for a package including Huston Street, SP Greg Smith and OF Carlos Gonzalez. The A's are now allowed to ring-rang a dong for Matt Holliday. Meanwhile, the Rockies may be looking to flip Huston Street.

Also, the Marlins traded Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham to the Nationals for infielder Emilio Bonifacio and two young prospects.

Elsewhere on the stove:

Angels: Have reportedly decided not to pursue free agent Francisco Rodriguez.
D-Backs: Are reportedly expressing interest in former Astro (and Brewer) Mark Loretta.
Padres: Reportedly withdrew their offer to Trevor Hoffman.

In other news, the Mariners have scheduled initial interviews with seven candidates for their vacant managerial position. Neither Ned Yost nor Willie Randolph are on the list. That could mean they're not candidates, but Chuckie Hacks wonders if Yost is getting a first round bye since he's worked with Zduriencik before. The same thing is possible for Willie Randolph, who interviewed with the Brewers while Zduriencik was still there.

Oh, and Friday is Make Someone Feel Uncomfortable Day. If you really want to do a good job, you should probably start preparing now.

Drink up.