The Cup would be longer today, but I'm suffering from repetitive stress injuries and am listed as day-to-day.

• BR Box Score
• FanGraphs Win Probability Chart

It's not the biggest injury in the NL Central now, or even in the Brewers middle infield, but JJ Hardy is unlikely to play today after tweaking the shoulder he had surgery on earlier in the year.

It wouldn't be a Plastic Cup without an unwanted mention of the lineup, so: Corey's happy that he could run more in the leadoff spot.  The highlight of the article is this Ned sighting:

"Why would it open up his running game? His running game is already open," Yost said. "The only guarantee he is going to have is an open base is the first inning, so, no. The law of averages say that he is going to be on base as many times with guys on as with guys not on."

I think Ned is trying to say something intelligent here, and getting closer than we'd expect, but still not very close.  Hart may not lead off every inning he bats, but the odds are pretty high that, coming up after the #8 and #9 hitters, he'll have no one ahead of him on the basepaths.

Mike Fast posted an interesting Pitch f/x study at The Hardball Times this morning.  He looks at the effects of pitchers working quickly.  One unsurprising side note: Ben Sheets is the fastest worker on the Brewers staff.  Mike doesn't give us a complete list, but it looks like Sheets is one of the fastest in the majors, too.

And speaking of Pitch f/x, Josh has published his web-based pitch tool with 2008 data.  Now you can look at all kinds of cool matchup stuff.  I'm sure you can do something cooler than what I just came up with, but here are the locations of the five pitches from LHPs that Prince cranked out of the park.

Now, on to the carnage in the NL Central.

Alfonso Soriano has a broken hand, and will likely be out for six weeks.  It may or may not be Murton time, but it will definitely be downgrade time.  Cwyers looks at the projected difference.

Also at Goat Riders, Colin points out the trade rumors that the Cubs could go after Sabathia.  The Brewers have been linked with Sabathia before, too, though I think that was purely speculation.  I would imagine that as the Indians fall in the standings, every team above .500 will be linked with Sabathia.  But I'm with Olney here (it's sentences like that that aggravate my RSI)--it wouldn't surprise me if Jim Hendry is willing to be the highest bidder.

As you probably know, Albert Pujols is now on the DL, too.  I'm not sure what's worse--losing your star for 6 weeks, or losing your star for an unknown period of time.  At least Soriano ought to be healed on schedule and shouldn't have lingering effects; Pujols is another story.  Cardinals Diaspora reflects on the surprising season in St. Louis so far, and wonders if this news is the end of it.

I'm playing injured, and you still got a full-length Cup.  How's that for GRIT?

Game time today is 1:05 CT, and if you check back after the game, there will be another draft pick interview courtesy of intrepid BCB reporter-in-the-field Battlekow.

Look on the bright side: At worst, we'll walk away from today's game having split six games at Wrigley.  At best, we will have won the second consecutive series at our main division rival's home park.

The matchup is worth watching regardless of the other storylines: Yovani Gallardo vs. Carlos Zambrano.  (I just about typed "Victor," but there is a limit to my wishful thinking.)  Here's the BR Game Preview.

With Soriano off the DL, the Cubs offense gets a little boost, but not as much as it would (in theory, anyway) if Sori would learn to hit further down in the lineup.  As a low-OBP, high-SLG guy, he would be more valuable there.  (Though not much--I just tried swapping Fukudome and Soriano and the difference works out to about 0.05 runs per game.)

Project-a-tron is eerily similar to last night, only with lower run totals.  I really, really hope it's right about the lower run totals.

• Brewers 4.7
• Cubs 4.6
• Brewers WinExp: 47.22%

Go Brewers!

Blah blah blah, this is a big one, whatever.  I don't care how on-the-bubble Sheets is or that we're getting Cameron back or that we're playing the Cubs.  It's game #26, and after the series, we'll have 134 left.  So let's all chill out about that.

That said, it will certainly be an interesting series.  Here are some things I've noticed, and others I'll be watching for.

• We all knew the Cubs were going to be a good team, but there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of their 16-9 start.  They've had a relatively easy schedule, and while they've played a couple of good teams, they haven't beaten very many good pitchers.  Their two-game sweep in New York came off of John Maine and Nelson Figueroa, and while they beat Aaron Harang (hats off to them), they lost to Edinson Volquez.  We took the series at Wrigley to open the season, and there's very little I've seen since to indicate that the Cubs are clearly the better team.
• Left field for the Cubs is a giant, yawning chasm of suck.  Soriano was awful before his injury, and while DeRosa has been okay in his starts in left field, that leaves Mike Fontenot (OPS: 545) at second base.  The Cubs have the offense at other positions to more than make up for it, but it's unusual to see so many people work together to produce so little at an offensive position.
• Kerry Wood isn't the best reliever in the bullpen, but he'll do.  He's striking out about one batter per inning and generally doing a good impression of a major league closer. Carlos Marmol, on the other hand, is downright dominant. I'm not about to give Piniella credit for strategery, but if the Cubs have Wood pitching like this in the 9th and Marmol putting out fires whenever necessary, they will be in very good shape. Maybe even good enough to escape the negative effects of a soft pen outside of those two guys.
• A big part of the Cubs' 16-9 start has been the offensive production of Geovany Soto and Kosuke Fukudome.  Neither one is a huge surprise, though I don't think most people expected both of them to have 900+ OPSs.  Right now, everybody but the left fielders are hitting better than expected, but Soto and Fukudome are in a whole different category.
• Ryan Dempster currently has an ERA of 2.90 and an FIP of 4.24.  Something's gotta give.  A walk rate over 4 per 9 suggests that the ERA will budge first.  If his HR rate ends up around his career average (or worse, as it was last year), that 4.24 will look mighty appealing to Cubs fans.
• As regular readers know, I am not concerned about the goings-on of small samples, so I could care less about the poor clutch hitting over the weekend, or David Riske's last couple of outings.  The Brewers offense as presently constituted will score lots and lots of runs, no matter how bad they look on any given day. 

If all that wasn't enough to think about, mark your calendars for Thursday afternoon: Carlos Zambrano and Yovani Gallardo.  Nice.

KL's on the road this morning, so it's up to me to deliver the sudsy goodness...in news form.

First, our regulars:

• Baseball-Reference box score
  
• FanGraphs WPA chart...which is depressing to look at.
• BP's postseason odds, which are a bit depressing to contemplate.
• BDD's daily recap, which at least lets us focus on other teams that sucked yesterday.

The big news in Brewers land is Derrick Turnbow asked him agent to talk to Melvin about his role.  I wrote about it after the game last night, and there's quite the range of opinion about it so far in the comments.

It's April 17th, so full-season stats are fairly meaningless.  Split stats always have sample-size issues.  So what does the J-S do?  Give us early-season split stats.  Jason Kendall has the best home batting average in the National League.  Let's pick up that option right now!

Speaking of splits, there's a new article at The Hardball Times about batting in front of the pitcher.  You might recognize the author.  I was interested in that in part because it seems like Counsell and JJ Hardy have had very different experiences in that spot.  In addition to the article, which you should read, I was surprised to discover that last year, in 48 at-bats with the pitcher on deck, Hardy hit 404/425/537.

A few injury notes:

• Crazy Al Soriano is on the DL, and it sounds like he'll spend the 15-day minimum.  Eric Patterson is called up in his place, and Matt Murton is now the assistant coach at Illinois Wesleyan.
• Reds prospect Jay Bruce "jammed his shoulder" and left last night's game, but it shouldn't keep him out for long.
• Nomar Garciaparra is back on the Dodgers active roster.  Now Joe Torre can play both Nomar and Juan Pierre over more deserving youngsters!
• The Red Sox put Alex Cora on the DL, which normally wouldn't be newsworthy in these parts, but it almost--almost!--led to the callup of Keith Ginter.  Joe Thurston got the nod instead.

Here's an interesting interview with Tim Marchman.  Don't miss his comments on LaRussa.

Shea Hillenbrand's son was attacked by a lemur.  At first it sounds like a joke, then it sounds like a tragedy, and then, thanks to this Baseball Think Factory thread, it turns back into a joke.

That'll do it for this morning.  Don't go far...game time is 12:15 CT.

Morning. Let's skip talking about last night's game and the standings and get right into the Mug.

Last night's Win Expectancy Graph
Baseball Reference Box Score
Baseball Digest Daily Recaps
ESPN Video Highlights

With the loss, BP's win projection for the Brewers dropped four tenths to 81.7, but their odds of winning the NL Central, interestingly enough, went up four tenths to 17.4%.

Gabe Kapler Gabe Kapler Gabe Kapler. Both ESPN Video and Sports Illustrated are talking about him, ironically enough on the same day he ran into the wall in BP and was scratched from the lineup. The ESPN interview might be the most awkward professional interview I've seen in quite some time.

Gaslamp Ball has opened up a debate, once again, on batting the pitcher 8th. Fungoes takes it in a new direction and asks "Why bat the pitcher at all?"

Ryan Braun was given the day off yesterday to "relax." I don't know about you, but watching my team lose while Joe Dillon hit in my spot in the lineup wouldn't be relaxing for me. Maybe he had a drink with an umbrella in it.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Erik Bedard's hip will land him on the DL. The DL Informer thinks it could be serious.
Indians P Joe Borowski is headed to the DL with chronic ineffectiveness a strained tricep.
Twins SS Adam Everett will have his shoulder examined by team doctors today, and missed last night's game.
Nats C Paul Lo Duca missed last night's game after being hit in the hand with a pitch Sunday.
Kevin Millwood had to leave his most recent start with a bruised shin.
Braves P Peter Moylan is on the DL with an elbow strain severe enough to send him to Dr. James Andrews.
Alfonso Soriano strained his calf hopping to catch a fly ball last night, and is day-to-day.

Who knows if he can consistently catch anymore, but rumor has it the Reds are interested in signing Mike Piazza.

Maybe Dontrelle Willis' hyperextended knee will keep him from driving drunk.

Again, we've gone round and round on Eric Gagne's struggles, but one fact is inarguable: He's pitching much better than Jose Valverde.

The Dodgers are inviting bloggers to meet with club personnel. That's a nice touch. I don't mean to drop hints or anything, but I'd be open to meeting with the Brewers front office staff...y'know, more or less anytime.

And, for the second time this week, if you're looking for work, the Marlins may have your answer. I think it's always dangerous to include phrases like "limited supervision" in the first line of a job description. Maybe that's just me.

If you have something you'd like me to consider for inclusion in a future Mug, be sure to drop it in the comments.

That's all for today. Drink up.