Tuesday's Frosty Mug
So I've got a ton of links this morning. There were over 1300 unread in my reader this morning, plus a dozen or so I found before I decided to observe the holiday yesterday. So why did I spend 15 minutes reading Joe Posnanski's thoughts on candy bars?
Monday's Win Expectancy Graph
Monday's BR Box Score
Sunday's Win Expectancy Graph
Sunday's BR Box Score
Saturday's Win Expectancy Graph
Saturday's BR Box Score
Friday's Win Expectancy Graph
Friday's Box Score
Ok, 3 1/2 days of links. Where does one start?
Everyone wants to talk about the game that was or wasn't a no-hitter on Sunday. This seems like a good time to bust out the bullet points:
- Tom H. has the official scorer's explanation.
- Chuckie Hacks says it wasn't a hit, but will settle for a 20-win month.
- In-Between Hops thinks we all have bigger things to worry about.
- The Brew Town Beat thinks MLB should reverse the call.
- Two Fisted Slopper also thinks it was the wrong call.
- Jim Powell says, and I quote: "We wuz robbed."
- Baseball Musings asked another official scorer for their opinion, and said it should be a hit.
- Bugs and Cranks wants to know what you think. Right now about 52% of voters are voting "error."
- Murray Chass wants his prune juice NOW!
- Peter Schmuck says MLB shouldn't change the call after the fact.
A couple of other notes on Sabathia: Beyond the Box Score is comparing Sabathia and...Ricky Nolasco? Also, MLB FanHouse thinks Sabathia is "flying under the radar" as a Cy Young candidate. How is that possible?
This is almost certainly bigger news: Ben Sheets left yesterday's game with tightness in his left groin. I haven't seen any updates on his condition yet, but obviously we'll be watching.
The rosters also expanded over the weekend. The JS has a quick profile of the ten players the Brewers have called up.
Looking ahead, The Brew Town Beat takes a look at today's Mets starter, Jon Niese, who will make his big league debut. TheJay has a FanPost on him too.
Could the Brewers play low-A ball in the Midwest League again next season? Via Al, I found this story that would suggest the Brewers and Wisconsin Timber Rattlers are waiting for the MLB-sanctioned window to open negotiations.
On Power Rankings:
WhatifSports has the Brewers 4th.
Phil Rogers has the Brewers 5th.
The Whisnant Rankings have the Brewers 8th.
Two Brewer voices are up for consideration for the Ford Frick Award, getting them a place alongside Bob Uecker in the Hall of Fame. I'm not sure Jim Powell is quite ready for enshrinement yet. And Bill Schroeder? Really?
On injuries:
Padres OF Scott Hairston has a torn ligament in his thumb.
Jeff Kent will have surgery to repair a torn medial meniscus and is out for the season.
Rangers P Vicente Padilla is on the DL with a strained hamstring.
And, instead of linking it 3 times, I'll just tell you that The Disabled List Informer has injury news on Carlos Zambrano (shoulder fatigue), Kevin Gregg (left knee inflammation) and Wandy Rodriguez (oblique).
MLB Trade Rumors has sorted likely free agent pitchers by strikeout rate, giving us the first list of likely free agent pitchers that doesn't have CC Sabathia at the top. At the same time The Junkball Blues asks if free agent pitchers are worth it.
Cliff Lee won his 20th game yesterday, making him 20-2 for the 66-win Cleveland Indians. Baseball Musings is calling it the best pitching performance in the AL since Pedro Martinez in 1999.
Brandon Webb couldn't pick up his 20th win again yesterday. But the organization has stepped up behind him and acquired some grit.
I was looking for something offbeat and unrelated to post here in the close, then I realized I used the candy bar thing in the open. Please do not protest.
Drink up.
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The All-Grit Team
I'm not exactly an authority on grit, but it was about time someone named an All-Grit Team. All-Star Week seemed appropriate.
- C Jason Kendall
- 1B Platoon: Doug Mientkiwicz / Kevin Millar
- 2B Mark Grudzielanek
- 3B Ryan Freel
- SS David Eckstein
- LF Scott Podsednik
- CF Aaron Rowand
- RF Eric Byrnes
If a DH were needed, the all-grit team would do one of two things:
- Bat the pitcher, because truly gritty players are throwbacks to when pitchers could hit for themselves
- Go with Willie Bloomquist.
The bench is a little unbalanced--in addition to the eight starters, 1B platoon, and Bloomquist, that leaves four or five spots. Again, these guys are throwbacks, so a 10-man pitching staff would have to do the job. That leaves two roster spots for Craig Counsell (team captain) and Nick Punto and three more for backup catchers. Doesn't really matter which ones, though I think Paul Bako has to be on the team.
It doesn't matter that there aren't any backup outfielders, because any truly gritty player can play anywhere in the diamond. In that sense, there are twelve backup outfielders. Similarly, it doesn't really matter which outfielders are assigned to which position, since any of the three could play center, but they, of course, will play wherever they're needed.
I haven't figured out what to do about the pitching staff, since pitchers aren't generally considered gritty in the same way that position players are. It seems that gritty pitchers are generally guys who have hung on past their prime (like Jamie Moyer) or lefty relievers (like Brian Shouse) or both.
You may note that I didn't include a batting lineup--the list above is just the fielding alignment. That's going to be a serious problem for manager Gabe Kapler--left to their own devices, everyone on this team would bat second.
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5 Blue Jays Questions with John Brattain
If you've been cruising the baseball intertubes for a while, you've heard of John Brattain. He writes twice a week for The Hardball Times, makes frequent appearances at Baseball Think Factory, and now writes for Baseball Digest Daily.
While he covers all of MLB, his first love (well, second, just below beating Bud Selig with a rubber hose) is the Toronto Blue Jays. With the Jays arriving for a three-game set at Miller Park, John was kind enough to take some time away from beating Bud Selig with a rubber hose to answer my questions.
Q: Let's counter expectations and start with something positive. BJ Ryan is back, and the bullpen is a bright spot for the Jays. The core of the pen has been very effective despite quite a few walks. Are there any big surprises in this group? Do you expect these guys to keep it up for another 95 games?
A: Yes (I think they will keep it up), I predicted the Jays would have a good bullpen this year--they’re about league average in walks surrendered which is actually an improvement on the fairly recent past where they were around 5 BB/9 (they’re 3.93 BB/9 at the moment). Despite the walks, they have a better than league average WHIP and are very stingy with the long ball (.76 HR/9 IP--AL avg: .87). Part of their success is that they are not overworked (12th in IP). However, they’re 4-14 because they’re often forced to protect very, very slim leads and when they give one up, the offense rarely gets it back since (1) the offense sucks--there’s no kinder word for it and (2) the starters go so deep into games there aren’t enough innings remaining to mount a comeback (not that it would help with the Jays’ lineup).
The biggest surprise has been how quickly B.J. Ryan returned from Tommy John surgery (although he’s clearly not all the way back) and Jesse Carlson was a minor league journeyman who really hadn’t done anything notable above A ball. Jeremy Accardo’s collapse was a nasty surprise and Jason Frasor is downright infuriating--an electric arm who tends to wet the bed in big situations. He has closer stuff but when he’s been placed in that role become the other team’s secret weapon. He should be a star reliever except he he celebrates the Brewers next division title when the pressure is on. If the game is close and Gibbons brings in Frasor, I suggest Brewer fans pop the bubbly and get the celebration underway.
Q: The Jays are in last place, though with the best record of any last-place team in baseball, just a smidge below .500. They are also performing well below their Pythagorean record, which is 38-33. Is it possible for the team to sneak back into contention? If it is, what needs to happen?
A: J.P. Ricciardi needs to be fired.
Or…
J.P. Ricciardi needs to have an epiphany--he needs to get a big bat. With the bases loaded, the Jays are hitting .215/.256/.446, men on second and third, .224/.302/.265, man on third, two out .157/.257/.224, RISP/2 out: .197/.311/.285.
This lineup cannot even make productive outs--so many times they’ve had man on third, less than two out, bases loaded, none out/one out, second and third none/one out and couldn’t get a fly ball or ground ball to score the man from third. They’re 0-4 at home in extra innings and in those four extra-inning losses at home, 11 times they had man at third, fewer than two out and were left stranded. They’re 4-for-25 in hitting with RISP and less than two out in extra innings with zero extra base hits and three GIDP. They have had many opportunities to win games without needing a hit--just a deep fly ball or slow rolling ground ball would score the winning run--and failed.
There is nobody that can be counted on in key situations. One of the best overall situational hitters this year is David Eckstein--that says it all. If Ricciardi refuses to upgrade the offense then he should be fired--period. The Jays production from left field and DH are among the worst in the AL. From these two positions combined, league average production is .258/.346/.431--that’s just league average. The Blue Jays are getting .224/.319/.351 from those spots. Having league average offense from left field and DH would represent a huge upgrade for the offense but Ricciardi is unwilling or unable to find league average hitters for those holes.
Chances are good Adam Lind (hitting .331/.389/.534 in Syracuse) could produce at average-ish levels in left field (he certainly can bat better than .234/.319/.316--what Jays LF are hitting in 2008) leaving only the DH spot to fill--a platoon partner for Matt Stairs would suffice.
This team would contend with a competent GM--Ricciardi’s inability to fill these key offense spots with league average performers indicate that he clearly is incompetent.
Q: Like the bullpen, AJ Burnett is striking out a lot of guys and walking a lot of guys. He's not embarrassing himself on the mound, but he also might be the Jays' fifth best starter right now. In light of his recent comments about the Cubs, do you think he'll be a Blue Jay in August? (Please note: Cash prizes are available for answers that include both "he sucks" and "he'll be a Cub very soon.")
A: Heh … I’m more than happy keeping him and taking the draft picks. If the Jays can get a decent bat I’m all for letting him go simply because A.J. could throw nothing but goose-eggs up on the scoreboard for the rest of the season and the Jays would still be floundering with the current lineup.
A.J. is frustrated and I don’t blame him one bit. The entire pitching staff should storm into Ricciardi’s office with a noose in hand and a demand--upgrade the offense now or become the poster child for Blue Jays choke jobs in 2008. I think he’ll be a Blue Jay all year because Ricciardi is not only in love with the status quo--he does the nasty with it on his desk during his lunch hour. If he does deal Burnett, he’ll probably get a middle infielder hitting .320/.400/.410 in low A ball that will be left unprotected in the 2010 Rule 5 draft.
Q: The Toronto offense is almost shockingly punchless, with no double-digit home run hitters. Is there anything in particular to blame? What should be (or should've been) done to make the offense respectable?
A: It sounds heretical in sabermetric circles but they need to be more aggressive at the plate. Now when I say aggressive, I don’t mean hack-tastic. I’m talking about going up there looking for a pitch to cream and turning on it when it appears. Sadly, the Jays current infatuation with uber-patience means they pass on first pitch meatballs so they can begin working the count from an 0-1 deficit in hopes of drawing a bases loaded walk to stay out of the double play.
Nobody in the lineup seems to realize that pitchers like to get ahead on the count--especially with men on and may be inclined to throw a first pitch fastball.
They’re letting pitchers dictate the at bat and forcing themselves to swing in pitcher’s counts at pitcher’s pitches with predictable results. OBP is nice but walks don’t get the runner home unless the sacks are juiced. They Jays have almost as many walks (6) as extra base hits (7) with the bases loaded and because they get themselves into bad counts with their approach--they also have 13 K and 7 GIDP with three aboard.
Mahatma Gandhi has been reincarnated as Gary Denbo and is the Blue Jays hitting coach. Passivity rules!
Q: Two and a half years on, what's your take on the Lyle Overbay trade? So far, we've gotten a bunch of mediocre relief innings from Zach Jackson and an aggravating starter in Dave Bush. Better than a kick in the ass Kevin Mench, right?
A: Overall I’ve been happy with it. The broken hand Overbay suffered last year really set him back and just now he seems to be the Overbay of old. Having said that, during the Jays recent 4-10 skid (where Toronto is hitting .181 with RISP with 22 hits and 14 GIDP with 109 men LOB) Overbay is hitting just .174/.291/.239--although I think (hope, pray, completely deludin’ myself here) that‘s just a bit of random variation since he was batting .291/.389/.491 over the previous five weeks with that Olerud-esque sweet swing of his. Regardless, I think the whole lineup needs a major enema.
On the bright side, the clubhouse is full of a bunch of swell guys that J.P. would be proud to introduce to his grandmother’s church knitting club and partnership for a celibate society--and that’s all that counts in the AL East … right? Not a sinner in the bunch--why they’re such gentlemen they go out of their way not to waste Ted Rogers’ money by hitting baseballs out of the field of play so they can be re-used again and again. They even make sure that they leave minimal marks on the balls so they remain nice and clean for grandma’s club to enjoy watching.
Such nice boys too--they even know it’s impolite to hit!
I need a good stiff drink.
Next round's on me. Thanks John!
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Wednesday's Frosty Mug
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 77.7 and 5.6%
For what it's worth, about a week after I ranted about how the mainstream media is too close to the team sometimes, Anthony Witrado's story in the JS reads like it was written by one of us. Sounds like he's getting sick of excuses too.
We're several weeks removed from the Masters now, but this really is a tradition unlike any other: When the Brewers are bad, start talking about 1982 again.
Related: Robin Yount and Paul Molitor made Dugout Central's list of the top players with less than 400 home runs.
In-Between Hops is talking about reasons to fire or retain a manager.
Eric Gagne made Dayn Perry's list of the five worst free agent signings. For whatever it's worth, Troy Percival is 7-for-7 in save opportunities and just moved into 10th on the all time list.
On injuries:
David Eckstein left last night's game with a sore groin. An inning later his replacement, John McDonald, left the game with an ankle injury.
Orlando Hudson has a strained hamstring and will miss around 10 days.
Obviously, things haven't been going real well around here, but on the flip side, Astros fans are pretty excited about where their recent hot streak has taken them.
On the other end of the spectrum, we have the Mariners. U.S.S. Mariner has given them five games to save their season.
Results are in from the most recent Baseball Happenings Blogpoll. Manny Ramirez takes home the AL MVP once again, Cliff Lee gets the AL Cy Young and Jacoby Ellsbury wins Rookie of the Year. Full results here. Here's the ballot I cast:
ROTY:
1) Greg Smith
2) Jacoby Ellsbury
3) Clay Buchholz
Cy Young:
1) Cliff Lee
2) Zack Greinke
3) Roy Halladay
MVP:
1) Manny Ramirez
2) Carlos Quentin
3) Johnny Damon
Recondite Baseball has a list of pitchers who have allowed the most extra base hits in a season. Three current or former Brewers appear on the list, but only one did it in a Brewer uniform. The answer may surprise you.
That's all for today. Drink up.
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