I've got a lot of tabs open right now, which means there are a lot of links to get to.  Let's get at it.

• FanGraphs Win Probability graph
• BR Box Score
• BDD Daily Recaps
• BP Postseason Odds: 84 wins, 26% shot at the playoffs.

The big news this morning is that it's official, Turnbow is DFA'd and Dillon is back.  It's disappointing that D-Bow hasn't been able to turn it around, but I do think it's well past time we cut our losses here.  One interesting thought that has been popping up a little bit lately is that Melvin is too slow to cut the cord on his reclamation projects--Podsednik is a similar case that comes to mind.  Branch Rickey was famous for saying it's better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late, and while you get bit occasionally for making that mistake, it's better than being saddled with someone as ineffective as D-Bow is right now.

A few writers at The Hardball Times ganged up to write a massive profile of Ben Sheets, including pitch f/x data, mechanics analysis, and injury commentary.

The Junkball Blues looks at how the Crew has done against closers.  It's interesting work, but he draws the wrong conclusions.  In 13 closer appearances, we've been shut out 7 times and have scored 6 times.  That's astonishingly good, to my eyes.  Would you happy if your team's closer gave up a run or more every other appearance?  That's essentially what we're turning opposition closers into.

Some injury news:

• Troy Tulowitzki will be out for a month, maybe two.
• Phil Hughes has a broken rib , and will probably be out for at least two months.
• Jimmy Rollins won't be back as scheduled, and there's no clear timetable for when he will be.

I'm not going to wade very far into the muck of the Bissinger/Costas/Leitch controversy, but I will point you to this great piece by Joe Posnanski, who straddles the blogger/reporter divide quite gracefully.  And I'll say one more thing.  Bissinger may have been honing his craft for 40 years, but his LaRussa book, Three Nights In August, was truly dreadful.  Possibly the worst baseball book I have ever read.  There is nothing more insulting than a quasi-analytical hagiography about an overrated, self-aggrandizing figure like TLR.

A couple of ex-Brewers notes.  Richie Sexson hit his 300th career home run, and Greg Aquino cleared waivers (big surprise--his ERA is roughly the same as Turnbow's) and is headed to Norfolk.  I don't remember seeing this in an earlier Mug, but Brady Clark is also in AAA--he talked about retiring, but has opted to spend some quality time with Claudio Vargas in New Orleans.

I think the Nationals Enquirer had too much to drink.  Careful kids: drinking and photoshopping don't mix.

Derrick Goold has a nice article about Rick Ankiel and Pat Jordan's writing about him.  When we played the Cards recently, I was thinking about the stories in baseball today that we'd still be talking about 40 or 50 years from now, and Ankiel is definitely one of them.

It's amazing how rarely I agree with Richard Justice.  A couple of days ago, he decided to rip on the Astros FO for choosing Max Sapp, a high school catcher, in the first round of the 2006 draft.  Amazingly, he uses the phrase, "they blew it" to describe the results of a draft pick made two years ago.  True, Sapp is struggling in A ball, but dude, he's two years out of high school.  He's younger than a lot of the guys who will be drafted this year.  And anyway, first-round picks fizzle sometimes.  We're doing just fine without the services of Jeremy Jeffress, who we chose well before the Astros picked Sapp.

Finally, a happy story.  John Wilson is a 53-year-old senior at Penn State Altoona, and a key part of their baseball program.  He's friends with Dusty Baker, too, though I guess I can forgive him for that.

Drink up, but don't drink it too fast.  This cup runneth over!

Well, the Cubs lost yesterday too, so we're still two games back entering a 3 game series with the Fish tonight. Come and get your Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 85.1 wins and a 22.6% shot at winning the Central.

If you haven't yet, go vote in this week's Fan Opinion Poll. And even if you have voted, go check out the results, which show a pretty interesting one week shift in Ned Yost's approval rating.

I'd never heard Scott Olsen called "Mr. Furious" before, but he's starting for the Marlins tonight, and Bugs and Cranks called him that, so I'll go with it.

The Junkball Blues thinks Rickie Weeks is on an upturn. That'd be nice.

The Official Site reports that Chris Capuano has begun a throwing program in his effort to avoid his second Tommy John surgery. Best wishes to him, but after a full ineffective year WITH the appropriate ligaments and whatnot, I can't imagine him coming back to be effective without them.

It must be a slow news day: Bugs and Cranks is pulling out old baseball cards featuring Troy O'Leary and Matt Mieske.

Today's Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports are sponsored by the letter C and the number 2:

Rangers C Adam Melhuse has a bruised hand and could head to the DL.
Mets C Brian Schneider has an infected left thumb and will be placed on the DL.

Related to the Melhuse injury: I took a friend to the Iowa Cubs/Oklahoma Redhawks AAA game in Des Moines last weekend. She didn't really know much about baseball, but was a big fan of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, based purely on his very large name. Sometimes you take what you can get.

Maybe they've been watching the Brewers: The A's tried out a lineup with nine right handed hitters last night against the Twins. It seemed to work. It certainly worked better than anything Ryan Howard has tried in April.

The market for closers grows as we speak: Gaslamp Ball is ready to pull the plug on Trevor Hoffman.

Former Brewer notes: The Mets have DFA's Brady Clark, and the Nats have sent Ray King back to AAA.

If either of them (or you) are looking for work, The Twins are hiring an administrative assistant. Job duties include receiving AND opening mail. I frequently struggle with the second one.

That's all for today. If you've got something to throw into tomorrow's Mug, drop it in the comments.

Drink up.

No Reds bloggers returned my emails in time to get a 5 questions post up for last series...maybe that's why we didn't win it.  I hope that's how it's going to work, because here we go with some Mets talk.  Our lucky guest is Jessica Bader, who writes for Take the 7 Train and MetsGeek.

First things first: How do you feel about the Johan Santana trade?  In particular, were there any pieces Minaya included in the deal who you think the Mets will come to regret giving up?

I spent much of the offseason highly fed up with the Santana trade speculation because I thought that the only offers the Mets could make that would top the Red Sox or Yankees would be far too costly even for a pitcher of Santana's caliber (remember, the early speculation was that the Mets would have to part with Jose Reyes to have any hope of landing Johan). Then the AL East behemoths decided that they were okay with not getting Santana as long as the other guy didn't get him, and Omar was able to acquire Santana without giving up Reyes or top outfield prospect Fernando Martinez.

Of the four prospects the Mets gave up in the deal, the one I think they will come to regret the most is Deolis Guerra, who has the highest ceiling by far of the three pitchers who went to Minnesota. Carlos Gomez is off to a hot start with the Twins, but I have my doubts about whether he will reach his considerable potential. Had Gomez remained a Met, I would have wanted him to spend at least half of this season in AAA as he is still fairly raw (he was rushed to the majors last year because the entire outfield depth chart got hurt pretty much all at once), and I fear that throwing him into the majors right away will have a negative impact on his development.

The Phillies won the division last year, but the Braves have become the trendy underdog pick this spring.  Which one do you think is going to be the biggest challenge to the Mets in 08?

I think that the Braves and Phillies have similar strengths (lineup, particularly the infield, and a solid 1-2 punch) and weaknesses (bullpen, the rest of the rotation), but I think that the Braves will pose the bigger challenge. They're not going to be shooting themselves in the foot with four months of Scott Thorman this year, and instability at the back end of the rotation is something that is easier to survive when you play your home games in a pitchers' park.

With Pedro and El Duque both out, the rotation is already suffering.  What's your ideal scenario to get the Mets through the next month or two without them?

I tend to be optimistic where Pedro is concerned - he may be fragile, but he's not a slow healer - and I expect to see him back on the mound by this time next month. As for El Duque, after his latest setback I doubt we'll ever see him pitch another major-league game. This puts a lot of pressure on Mike Pelfrey - the most advanced pitching prospect remaining in the Mets' system - to perform at an adequate level.

If Pelfrey can harness his command of his secondary pitches (a big problem for him last year), he can be a solid contributor at the back end of the rotation (his being the only groundball pitcher in a flyball-heavy rotation may also be helpful). That would make it a lot easier to stomach the occasional Nelson Figueroa start until Pedro returns.

Tell us how excited you are to have two recent Brewers--Matt Wise and Brady Clark--on your roster.  If the Mets sign Claudio Vargas, do you think Mr. Met will start drinking Miller?

I like what Clark brings to the table in terms of OBP off the bench, but I don't think he was worth losing Ruben Gotay on waivers (to the Braves, no less). Wise seems like a decent middle relief arm, but he hasn't exactly endeared himself to Mets fans with the combination of giving up walkoff home run to a light-hitting utility infielder and going on the DL with forearm soreness a week into the season. I suspect that Mr. Met will crave poutine if the Mets sign Vargas (a strong possibility now that El Duque isn't coming back any time soon [now official -js]); Omar has brought in a handful of former Expos whose stint in Montreal coincided with his own.

I like to be ahead of the curve.  When the rumor mill goes into high gear in June, what will the Mets be looking for?  Any early bets on who will be that missing piece?

One thing the Mets still need badly is a right-handed bat who can play first base. Chris Shelton and Josh Phelps were both there for the taking this winter, but the team didn't make much of an effort to go after either one of them. I suspect that once the Orioles start playing like the Orioles and Carlos Delgado gets at-bats against lefties not named Jamie Moyer, Kevin Millar's name will come up quite a bit.

Thanks Jessica!