I know you'll all be very disappointed, but today's Trash Day was uneventful, so I don't have an anecdote to lead off the Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score

So, if you've been watching the games, you probably realize that Rickie Weeks is hitting .273/.467/.636 in the three games since the Durham trade. This one, however, snuck up on me: Bill Hall is hitting .405/.444/.833 with 4 home runs in his last 12 games. Adam Charles of Bugs & Cranks has a theory to explain it: Magic Skoal.

It's going to take more than chewing tobacco to get him back to the big leagues, but the Brewers signed Jay Gibbons to a minor league deal yesterday, ending his 27-game career with the Long Island Ducks.

After I complained in yesterday's Mug about the Whisnant rankings and suggested their ranking system could use a little work, I got an email from Paul Kuo of Whatifsports.com, who wanted to make sure I had seen their most recent power rankings. On the strength of the Sabathia trade the Brewers skyrocketed up the charts to fourth this week, so obviously the WIS rankings are better.

Also, CBSSports.com ranks the Brewers sixth, and second best in the NL.

TheJay is working to quantify Vulture Wins, and discovered that both Salomon Torres and Brian Shouse are among the league leaders. Reall,y, if you just start checking Recondite Baseball every day, you'll be one step ahead of everyone else when the Mug comes out.

On injuries:

White Sox 3B Joe Crede was scratched from last night's lineup with back stiffness.
Cards OF Chris Duncan has been placed on the DL with a bulging disc in his neck.
Reds SP Josh Fogg needed 30 stitches to repair damage done to his upper lip after being hit by a ball in batting practice.

Certainly, yesterday's most puzzling transaction was the Astros' decision to trade for Randy Wolf. The Astros are 12 games back of the Cubs and BP Postseason Odds gives them a .08% chance at making the playoffs, roughly 1 in 1220. R.J. Anderson of Beyond the Box Score is one of thousands who didn't like the move, but Astros beat writer Brian McTaggart defended it.

In other transactions, the Diamondbacks traded a prospect to the Nationals for Jon Rauch, meaning two of the tallest players in MLB history (along with Randy Johnson) are now on the same roster.

Here's a puzzling decision: Skyking162 has ranked the top 25 position players of right now. Well, really he's ranked the top 23 and given 18 more honorable mentions to get to 41. Here are some names on the list so far:

Evan Longoria, who has yet to finish his first big league season.
Brian Roberts
B.J. Upton
Mark Ellis
Rick Ankiel
Scott Rolen
David DeJesus
Aaron Rowand
Adrian Beltre

Yet somehow, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are nowhere to be found. With the possible exception of Longoria, there's not a single guy on that list who deserves to be ahead of Braun and Fielder. And Mark Ellis? That's a joke.

Francisco Rodriguez is threatening to become the first closer ever to reach 60 saves in a season. 6-4-2 has the math on what it will take for him to get there.

These seem to tie together nicely: In-Between Hops has a list of the greatest living players in the history of 29 franchises. Joe Posnanski takes a look at players who posted more than three "great" seasons in their careers.

If you're looking for a lesson on somewhat advanced statistics, this debate between Tangotiger and Geoff Baker is pretty instructive on the strengths, weaknesses and correct uses of ERA+.

Oh, and here's a hurricane prediction that's as accurate as any you'll see today.

Drink up.

With CC Sabathia in the fold, the Brewers have made one huge move to improve the team.  There are few things you can do that make more impact than replacing your 5th starter with an ace.

Beyond that, it's not entirely clear what else Doug Melvin could do to improve the Brewers' playoff chances.  Some of us would like to see a bullpen addition or two.  I'm skeptical, largely because we're unlikely to get anyone much better than Riske or Gagne.  If such a player became available, he'd be very expensive.  Think Linebrink.  I wouldn't mind a minor move, but I don't think we can count on increasing the win total via new relievers.

That leaves the offense.  A quick glance at sOPS+ by position tells the story.  The Crew is average or better at every position except for catcher and second base.  We can rule out an improvement at catcher, both because Kendall has been so good defensively, and because a substantial offensive improvement would be next to impossible to come by.  Just about every good catcher plays on a contender.

In fact, the sheer number of contenders makes it tough to envision many deals getting done.  I suppose another few teams may decide they're out of it before July 31, but as is, I only count 11 or 12 teams that should throw in the towel, and I'm including clubs like the Rockies and Blue Jays, whose GMs may not agree with me.

So.  That leaves us with about a dozen teams, each of which have a second baseman who may or may not be worth acquiring.

To set some benchmarks: Rickie is currently OPSing 687, while team second basemen are averaging 688--Counsell is bringing up the OBP and dragging down the SLG.  The average second baseman in the NL this year OPS's 743, while the average lead-off guy OPS's 745.  Roughly speaking, the difference between Rickie production and average production for the rest of year is worth about one win. 

One more consideration.  In his career, Weeks has OPS'd about 100 points higher against lefties.  That's unsurprising, so I'm comfortable expecting that to continue.  With that in mind, a lefty replacement with a marked platoon split would have the potential to improve the team more than a righty replacement who would play second every day.

Let's look at some options:

• Brian Roberts, Orioles.  If we're going to really go for it, this is the guy.  Unless the Rangers have an immediate slump and offer up Ian Kinsler (fat chance!), Roberts is the best player available at the position, by far.  He's a switch hitter, but over his career he's had typical lefty platoon splits--about 100 points higher vRHP.  The splits are even this year, but I'll take the 4000 PA sample, thank you very much.  If he and Rickie have second halves just like their first halves, the difference is a staggering three wins--and that's just at the plate.  Even using more conservative estimates, acquiring Roberts would probably have as big of an impact on the win total as picking up CC.
• Ray Durham, Giants.  His name has already come up in trade rumors, and for obvious reasons.  Unlike the Orioles, Rockies, and plenty of others, San Fran realizes they are out of it, and there's certainly no reason to keep Durham around to help them lose.  He might be one of the few available players who wouldn't be a defensive upgrade on Weeks, but his bat is solid (800 OPS so far this year) and he's another switch hitter.  His splits are a bit weird--this year he's much better against righties, but in 05-07 he was stronger vLHP.  Durham wouldn't have near the impact that Roberts would, but presumably, he'd come much cheaper.
• Mark Grudzielanek, Royals.  This Wisconsin-native All-Grit Team starter is having his second straight solid season at the plate, OPSing 770.  I was about to write it off to an unsustainably high BABIP of .343 this year, but he's consistently in the 330 range.  Grudz is a righty, meaning that we wouldn't get any platoon advantage pairing him with Rickie, but his glove may well make him a more valuable potential acquisition than Durham.  I can't imagine why the Royals would hold on to him if we offered any kind of useful piece.
• Jose Lopez, Mariners.  This list goes downhill fast.  Some people still think of him as good because of a solid first half in 2006.  As is, he's not much better at the plate than Rickie (729 OPS) and his glove is suspect.  The Mariners should be in fire sale mode, but Lopez is under control for another couple years and there isn't an obvious replacement nipping at his heels.  He wouldn't be cheap, and he wouldn't be good.  Pass.  (Also, did you know the Mariners payroll this year is over 115MM?  Wow.)
• Mark Ellis, A's.  Ellis wouldn't be much of an improvement at the plate--238/332/384 is right in line with what Rickie would do with better BABIP luck--but he is considered one of the best defensive second sackers in baseball.  He'll be a free-agent after the season, so unless the A's go on a tear starting this weekend, Billy Beane should make him available.  I don't know what kind of package Beane would require, but Ellis's defense probably makes him worth about as much as Durham or Grudz.  My gut says that Grudz would come cheaper.

There will surely be other guys out there--Felipe Lopez comes to mind, as does Mark Loretta--but the five listed above are the only ones who have any shot at being a clear win over Rickie.  I don't think Melvin will mortgage the future to the extent he'd need to in order to grab Roberts, but with the trio of Durham, Grudz, and Ellis, it might be something of a buyer's market, in which case we could improve the team by giving up some pieces we wouldn't miss.

The rules governing All-Star Game roster construction have changed over the years, but one thing has been constant for quite some time: Every team must have at least one representative on the team.  Naturally, this makes for some undeserving selections now and then.

There are plenty of examples, but in recent years, my favorite has been the 2006 selection of Mark Redman.  (I've been fascinated with Redman for a while now--see this article from March 2007.)  In browsing through some ASG history yesterday, I came across another galling Royals pick--Jose Rosado, who made the team twice in four-and-a-half year career.  Seriously--he was an All-Star twice in the late '90s, and I barely remember the guy.

Of course, the Brewers weren't a good team for quite a long time, and one member of the team needed to be selected every year between the Molitor/Yount era and the Ben Sheets era.  In fact, the Brewers had only one All-Star thirteen years in a row, from 1989 to 2001, including such luminaries as Kevin Seitzer, Ricky Bones, and Fernando Vina.

Looking over this year's All-Star rosters, one can find a few picks of this sort, but they are few and far between.  I don't know what it says about parity--even bad teams ought to have one good player, right?--but it is encouraging that we'll see close to 18 half-innings of good pitching.

Here are a few of the 2008 All-Star selections that might raise eyebrows:

• Cristian Guzman.  He's having a career year, but even his empty .313 batting average leaves him with a 102 OPS+, far behind guys like Jose Reyes and JJ Hardy.  Actually, the Nats aren't that hard up--either John Lannan or Jon Rauch would've made for a credible selection.
• Brian Wilson.  This one baffles me.  At first, I thought, "Yeah, of course the Giants are sending a lame All-Star."  But of course, the Giants are also sending Tim Lincecum.  Wilson has 25 saves with a WHIP over 1.5.  He's racking up the numbers because the Giants offense never scores enough runs to amass anything bigger than a 3-run lead.
• George Sherrill.  He's the Wilson of the AL.  He's got 28 saves, which makes him the easy choice as a token team rep, but he's not even the best (or second-best) choice from the bullpen.  Brian Roberts probably deserved the spot more than Sherrill, too.
• Miguel Tejada.  This, like the Wilson pick, is just weird.  Lance Berkman is a no-questions-asked starter, so there's no need for Tejada on the team, and Miggy's performance certainly hasn't earned him the trip.  Tejada has been out-hit by Guzman (his OPS+ is 95), meaning that he's less deserving than someone who really isn't very deserving.  Jose Reyes should be ticked.  Heck, even Ryan Theriot should be ticked.  At least he's not a lying druggie with no range.
  

Such a list wouldn't be complete without Derek Jeter (740 OPS with crappy defense!) and Jason Varitek (299 OPS!), but the fans and the players (I presume) are to blame for those. 

In other words, the one-player-per-team rule didn't bite too hard this year.  Really, Guzman and Sherrill are the only guys who snuck in under that rule, and either one could've been replaced by a better option (if not a slam-dunk All-Star, in the case of the Nats) without wreaking too much havoc on the roster.

As regular readers know, KL would occasionally mention the large number of blogs he reads every day to provide the Frosty Mug.  A while back, he sent me the list so I could import it into Google Reader, and let me tell you, it is a LOT of blogs.  Since this time yesterday, there were about 450 new posts to read skim mostly ignore.

No game last night, of course, and not really much going on in Brewers news.  Weeks is on the DL, Iribarren is called up.  Brewers scouts were at an Orioles game (which could have something to do with our series against the Orioles next weekend), Doug says he's not interested in Brian Roberts, but then again, this is all via Tom H, who the front office may or may not be toying with.

Adam McCalvy has a new mailbag up.  The JS guys do too, but the JS site is down right now, so I'm not going to link to it.  Another JS article that is currently unavailable: Mike Cameron doesn't like being on the bench.

In-Between Hops thinks Carlos Villanueva should get a look as closer.  Personally, I'm happy sticking with Torres for a while, and as long as Torres holds up, Villa can be a two-inning guy when needed.

Right Field Bleachers interviewed supplemental pick Evan Frederickson.  Later today, battlekow will post his interview with Frederickson.  Also, if you haven't been here in a couple of days, scroll down for another Evan interview--this one with Evan Bronson, a lower-round pick.

More obscure draft/minor leaguer news: The Brewers signed Brandon Drespling, an outfielder from Westminster College in Pennsylvania.  (Yes, that's WAY off the beaten scouting path.)  Follow the link for his stats and splits.  I hope his first hitting coach mentions that it's ok not to swing now and then.

The big baseball news yesterday was Ken Griffey Jr.'s home run #600.  Roch Kubatko leads his article with an even more incredible occurrence:

Paul Bako had the first multi-homer game of his career.

Joe Posnanski takes the milestone seriously and, as usual, turns in a great piece.

Pitcher fatigue is in the air.  In addition to Josh's great diary outlining how Brewers starters tire (or not), check out his article at The Hardball Times.  It includes Sheets, and has the interesting note that a change in fastball movement might be a better indicator of fatigue than a decrease in velocity.

Pizza Cutter also looks at pitcher fatigue, through more traditional means.  A finding that might bring a Brewers starter or two to mind:

Does fatigue affect DIPS?  For a long time, it’s been assumed that balls in play went for hits at a rate that had more to do with the defense than the pitcher.  That’s been based mostly on season-to-season intercorrelations.  But, what about within a game?  The answer is… yes, there is an effect.  At lower pitch counts, a ball in play is less likely to be a hit, again, controlling for batter/pitcher rates.  Additionally, there’s an effect for number of times through the lineup (already controlling for the fact that there will be a pitch count effect.)  So, we would expect that starters who are efficient with their pitch count to have a lower BABIP overall.

That'll do it for today.  Check back this afternoon for the Frederickson interview, and drop in tonight for the 7:05 start in Houston.