Mr. Melvin's Rangers
An ongoing joke these days goes that whenever the Brewers sign a free agent or pick up a player on waivers, there's some connection between that player and Doug Melvin's time as the GM of the Texas Rangers. The latest example of this connection can be found in the minor league contract given to outfielder Jason Bourgeois. Bourgeois was selected by the Rangers in the 2nd round of the 2000 draft while Melvin was GM and spent five seasons in the Texas system. After bouncing around the minors for a couple more years he finally got a taste of the majors with the White Sox last season. He's been signed to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.
The Brewers have had Melvin-era Rangers contribute greatly since Melvin joined the Brewers after the 2002 season. Consider Gabe Kapler last year, Doug Davis, Dan Kolb, Francisco Cordero, and so on. So this begs the question, how many ex-Rangers has Doug Melvin picked up while in Milwaukee? Luckily, it's possible to use minor league rosters, draft reports, and other transactions information to put together a list.
Doug Melvin was hired as the General Manager of the Texas Rangers on October 10, 1994. He remained in that role until October 7, 2001. During that time he guided the team to three division championships, oversaw seven drafts, and was part of the massive Alex Rodriguez free agent signing. After spending much of the 2002 season with the Red Sox as a consultant, Melvin was hired as the 8th General Manager in Brewers history on September 25, 2002. I trust we're all sufficiently aware of his accomplishments in that role.
Of all the Rangers and Brewers to come and go under Melvin's leadership, it turns out only twenty-nine overlap. Of those, fifteen have played in the major leagues for the Brewers, no doubt increasing the perception of Melvin favoring Rangers re-treads. Here are the lucky twenty-nine, with those who reached the majors for Milwaukee in bold:
| Name | Position | Years with Rangers | Years with Brewers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Backsmeyer | RHP | 1998-2001 | 2003 |
| Jason Bourgeois | 2B/OF | 2000-2004 | 2009 |
| Royce Clayton | SS | 1998-2000 | 2003 |
| Jason Conti* | OF | 1998 | 2003 |
| Francisco Cordero | RHP | 2000-2006 | 2006-2007 |
| Tim Crabtree | RHP | 1998-2001 | 2003 |
| Doug Davis | LHP | 1996-2003 | 2003-2006 |
| R.A. Dickey | RHP | 1996-2006 | 2007 |
| Richie Gardner | RHP | 2001 draft, did not sign | 2008 |
| Rick Helling | RHP | 1992-2001 | 2005-2006 |
| Gabe Kapler | OF | 2000-2002 | 2008 |
| Dan Kolb | RHP | 1995-2002 | 2003-2004, 2006 |
| Mike Lamb | 3B | 1997-2003 | 2008 |
| Chris Magruder | OF | 2001 | 2004-2005 |
| David Manning | LHP | 1992-1998 | 2003 |
| Ruben Mateo | OF | 1994-2001 | 2007 |
| Kevin Mench | OF | 1999-2006 | 2006-2007 |
| Chris Michalak* | LHP | 1998, 2001-2002 | 2004 |
| Warren Morris | RHP | 1996-1998 | 2005 |
| Laynce Nix | OF | 2000-2006 | 2006-2008 |
| Scott Podsednik | OF | 1994-1995, 1998-2000 | 2003-2004 |
| Andy Pratt | LHP | 1998-2001 | 2004-2006 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | LHP | 2001-2006 | 2008 |
| Reggie Rivard | RHP | 2000-2003 | 2004 |
| Julio Santana | RHP | 1990-1998 | 2005 |
| Scott Sheldon | IF | 1998-2001 | 2004 |
| Junior Spivey* | 2B | 1998 | 2004-2005 |
| Keith Stamler | RHP | 2000-2005 | 2005 |
| Lee Stevens | 1B | 1996-1999 | 2003 |
| Justin Thompson | LHP | 2000-2005 | 2006 |
* - Conti, Michalak, and Spivey spent 1998 playing for the Rangers' AA affiliate even though they were Diamondbacks prospects. Arizona, as an expansion team, did not have an AA affiliate that season.
Okay, so maybe Conti and Spivey shouldn't count because they weren't ever truly Rangers farmhands despite spending a season with the Texas staff. Ditto for Gardner since Melvin probably only got a cursory report on him after the draft. Still, though, it's quite a list of Melvin-era Rangers turned Brewers.
For those interested in how Melvin acquired these guys while in Texas, here's the breakdown:
- Thirteen of the players listed were drafted or signed their first contract while Melvin was the Rangers GM.
- Seven (Clayton, Cordero, Crabtree, Kapler, Magruder, Ramirez, and Thompson) were acquired via trade.
- Four (Helling, Manning, Podsednik, and Santana) were already with the Rangers when he took over.
- As mentioned, Conti and Spivey were really Arizona prospects who were loaned to the Rangers system.
- Scott Sheldon and Lee Stevens were signed as free agents.
- Chris Michalak was a waiver claim.
Since drafting players from your previous organization isn't possible, naturally you begin to focus more on other ways to acquire them. Here's how Doug Melvin acquired his ex-Rangers as Brewers GM:
- A full nineteen of the twenty-nine players were signed as free agents.
- Six (Conti, Cordero, Mench, Nix, Pratt, and Spivey) were picked up through trades.
- Richie Gardner, Mike Lamb, and Scott Podsednik were waiver claims.
- David Manning was a Rule 5 pick in 2003.
So there you have it. Over ten percent (15 of 144) of the players to appear in the majors with Milwaukee since 2003 spent time under Melvin in Texas. Jason Bourgeois will attempt to continue the tradition next year. Looking at the list of minor league free agents, I get the feeling he won't be alone...
7 comments
| 0 recs
|
On the actual value of Mike Cameron
Now, $9.25 million is a lot of money. In $100 bills, it would pretty much fill this suitcase.
If you assume the Brewer payroll will be around $90 million next season, give or take depending on free agent signings, Mike Cameron stands to make about 11.1% of the Brewers' total payroll. That number is less than Jeff Suppan (13.8%), only slightly more than Bill Hall (9.3%) and much, much more than Ryan Braun (0.8%).
In several threads discussing the option, there seems to be a percentage of the population that feels like $9.25 million was too much to spend on Cameron, an above-average defensive CF who hit .243/.331/.477 in 2008, his tenth consecutive and eleventh out of twelve season with an OPS+ over 100. I'll agree that $9.25 million is a lot of money, and perhaps more than I'd like to spend, but if not Cameron, then what? Let's take a look down three other paths the Brewers could have pursued:
Option 1: Replace from within
Cost: Cheap. Any two of these guys would cost less than $1 million for 2009.
Six minor leaguers played in at least ten games in center field for either Nashville (AAA) or Huntsville (AA) in 2008. Thanks to Jeff, we can calculate their major league equivalents for 2008 relatively easily. Here are the six, sorted by their MLE OPS:
Laynce Nix (AAA): .238/.287/.429
Lorenzo Cain (AA): .228/.293/.383
Michael Brantley (AA): .264/.322/.323
Hernan Iribarren (AAA): .233/.274/.283
Tony Gwynn (AAA): .231/.272/.274
Freddy Parejo (AA): .233/.248/.289
Of those, Nix is no longer with the organization, Brantley was the PTBNL in the Sabathia deal, and Iribarren has played just 11 games in center field in his career. Lorenzo Cain has played just six games above AA, and only played half of 2008.
So if you want to go really cheap and create the possibility of half innings that go 7-8-9 with Kendall, Cain/Iribarren/Gwynn, Pitcher, that's one option. On Yovani Gallardo's starts he should hit seventh.
Option 2: Sign another free agent to replace Cameron
Cost: Moderate
Could the Brewers bring in another stop-gap centerfielder for less? Possibly. Let's look at the options:
Gabe Kapler, Brewers: There's no guarantee Kapler will be back, as he's coming off a career year and the Red Sox reportedly have interest in him. He's never had 500 AB's in a season, and hasn't even had 500 plate appearances since 2001. He had a career year and a nice comeback in 2008, but spent 2007 out of baseball, and in the five seasons before that he posted OPS+'s of 75, 85, 77, 65 and 77. He's only 33 and coming off a career year, so my guess is he'll sign for either 2 or 3 years at $3.5-$4 million per. If you sign him for that and he either can't physically handle playing full time or is ineffective, then you're back to the options listed above.
Jim Edmonds, Cubs: Came back to hit .256/.369/.568 for the Cubs in part-time duty after a rough start that led to his release in San Diego. He's 39 years old and hasn't appeared in 120 games since 2005. He's almost certainly not capable of playing everyday, but if you'd like to give him a shot I'd guess about $3 million for one year could do it.
Mark Kotsay, Red Sox: Hit /276/.329/.403 for the Braves and Red Sox in 2008. He's a serviceable big league CF with decent experience and while he hasn't reached a 100 OPS+ in any of the last four seasons, he was only truly terrible in one of them. The downside: he made $8 million in 2008, and since he's really the only other everyday option available in free agency, he'll probably get something like 3 years, $27 million, to make him $25k cheaper than Cameron.
Scott Podsednik, Rockies or So Taguchi, Phillies: Podsednik hasn't been a full-timer since 2006. He had a nice comeback in Colorado this year, but still only hit .253/.322/.333. Taquchi hit .220/.283/.297 for the Phillies this season and, at 38 years old, is likely done. Either might take a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Neither should be depended on to provide anything.
Option 3: Move Ryan Braun/Corey Hart to CF and look for a corner outfielder
Cost: Depends on the corner outfielder
CHONE projects Mike Cameron as about three runs above average defensively in center field in 2009. Braun projects at about 7 runs below average in center, and Hart projects at 9. Braun has never played there before, so I'm not sure how reliable that number is. But, assuming one of the two would be 8 runs below average, the new corner outfielder would need to be an average defender and 11 runs better than Mike Cameron offensively to break even.
There are some Brewers that could be a fit here. Brad Nelson (.246/.321/.393 MLE in Nashville) is as close to big league ready as he'll ever get, in all likelihood. Mat Gamel (.273/.326/.430 MLE in Huntsville) could work, and a free agent to fill a corner spot is easier to find than a center fielder. This is probably the most viable of the three options, but it weakens the Brewers a lot defensively, and could mean Ryan Braun's second position change in as many years.
So what do you think? What should the Brewers have done?
30 comments
| 0 recs
|
Monday's Frosty Mug
Today's collection of links is actually the largest since the end of the season, so let's get right to it.
If you've been reading the site over the weekend you likely know all of this news, but in case you've been away all weekend, here's what you missed:
- Dale Sveum will be back for 2009 after all, as hitting coach. (as noted in this FanShot)
- Craig Counsell's option for 2009 was declined. He could still return as a free agent, of course.
- Mike Maddux won't be back either, after being "overwhelmed by a huge deal" to take over as pitching coach in Texas. The Brewers reportedly offered him a multi-year deal. (Noted in this FanShot) The Newberg Report has a story from the Rangers' side.
- Joe Dillon also won't be back. The A's claimed him off waivers after the Brewers DFA'd him last week.
- Ken Rosenthal is reporting the Brewers' offer to CC Sabathia was in fact for $100 million, but the contract was for five years, not four. For me, this removes any possibility Sabathia will return. (noted in this FanShot)
- The Brewers have until tomorrow to decide if Mike Cameron will return in 2009.
One would assume Doug Melvin is at least listening to offers for J.J. Hardy. The Junkball Blues, meanwhile, crunched the numbers to figure out what kind of production would be needed from Hardy and Alcides Escobar to justify moving Hardy to third and Bill Hall out of the lineup.
Planning on making a trip to Vegas? Current odds have the Brewers at 15-to-1 to win the 2009 World Series. The odds would have to get a lot better before I'd be interested. Right now, 15-to-1 is a better shot than 19 other teams have, and tied with the Dodgers and Twins. (h/t Redleg Nation)
Tim Kurkijian says the Sabathia Sweepstakes is the third most interesting story of the offseason. With Sabathia the Brewers had the sixth best starting rotation in all of baseball, according to Beyond the Box Score.
Sabathia, Ray Durham and Russell Branyan all filed for free agency over the weekend, joining these players:
Angels Darren Oliver, Juan Rivera
Athletic Alan Embree
Cub Kerry Wood and also Henry Blanco,
Mariners Raul Ibanez, Willie Bloomquist, Miguel Cairo
Marlins Mark Hendrickson, Arthur Rhodes
Mets Pedro Martinez, Luis Ayala, Tony Armas, Moises Alou, Ricardo Rincon, Ramon Martinez and also Orlando Hernandez
Phillies So Taguchi, Tom Gordon
Pirates Doug Mientkiewicz, Chris Gomez, Jason Michaels, Luis Rivas
Rockies Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, Livan Hernandez, Adam Melhuse, Scott Podsednik
At this point I feel obligated to remind you that Orlando Hernandez is free to throw the banana for other teams.
FanGraphs has built the All Free Agent Bargain Team. There are some decent players on there, but that team would lose most of the time.
As we look into the future, few things are abolutely certain, but we can say this: despite boatloads of other teams making the exodus from spring training sites in Florida to Arizona, the Red Sox are committed to training in Florida through 2038.
It's a good thing we'll probably have some time to learn to say his name: The Pirates have signed an 18-year-old shortstop from South Africa named Mpho Ngoepe. There has never been a South African player in the major leagues. Have there been any from anywhere in Africa? I do not know.
Indians minor leaguer Randy Newsom's blogs from Venezuela are really making me want to go see a game there.
Finally, let's say you're the Washington Nationals. You lost 102 games in 2008, the franchise's first 100 loss season since 1976. You set a modern era single season record for lowest attendance in a new ballpark. You could count the number of fans listening to your games on the radio or watching them on TV on your fingers and toes. Do you honestly believe people are going to come out in hordes to buy your new jerseys? You're invited to join them at the unveiling Thursday. Bring a friend, otherwise you might be there all alone.
Drink up.
4 comments
| 0 recs
|
Wednesday's Frosty Mug
So, if the Brewers don't manage to win the next two and salvage a split of this series, will this be the most disappointing home series in Brewer history?
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
So Ben Sheets didn't have it last night. It happens. I was about ready to give Sheets and Yost the benefit of the doubt before Brewers Bar made me realize that Sheets' entire 6th inning meltdown last night took place without a single mound visit. This is your ace we're talking about, in the 6th inning. I can understand not wanting to pull him, since it is only the 6th with no outs, but he gave up 7 straight hits...don't you at least want to go calm him down?
Complaining about Cubs fans seems to be en vogue today, and they probably deserve it. Viva Cerveceros recounts a post-arrest story, and The Brew Town Beat missed an opportunity to prevent a moron from reproducing last night as well.
On the flip side, The View From the Bleachers doesn't like Ryan Braun, because he's smug and cocky. I was going to retaliate here by calling Carlos Zambrano a hotheaded dick, especially after he stared down Ray Durham going back to the dugout last night after a strikeout in an at-bat where Durham was injured on a foul ball. Classy.
But I've decided not to go that route, since Cub fans have been tortured enough. They've gone 100 years since they won a World Series, and there will be a World Series banner hanging in "Wrigley Field North" before there's one in the real thing.
Ray Durham left the game in the seventh and is day-to-day, by the way.
On to other things: CC Sabathia took out an ad in the Cleveland Plain Dealer to thank Indians fans for their support. If you click the link, you can see the full ad. It's a classy move.
And if you're sick of Brewer-Cub nonsense and would like to take a break for a few minutes before it resumes again tonight (or in the comments of this post momentarily), go read Battlekow's post ranking Brewer prospects. I routinely defeat Battlekow at Boggle, but he knows a lot more about prospects than I do, so it evens out.
On injuries:
Hank Blalock has been placed on the DL for the 3rd time this season, this time with shoulder inflammation.
Twins 2B Alexi Casilla has been placed on the DL with torn ligaments in his thumb.
Pirates 1B Adam LaRoche has been placed on the DL with a rib injury.
Mets SP John Maine has a strained rotator cuff but may make his next start anyway.
Scott Podsednik has hit the DL with a broken pinky finger.
Ichiro singled to lead off last night's Mariners game and now has 3,000 hits between Japan and MLB, with 1722 coming on this side of the Pacific. Plus, the M's won to reach eight games over .300.
Blue Jays C Gregg Zaun isn't getting to play as much as he'd like and is asking to be traded. He's only gotten 211 plate appearances in 2008. That's 168 more plate appearances than Mike Rivera.
Three Cardinal minor leaguers have been busted for PED use. Maybe every system has 3 users in it, or more, but how many guys busted from one system at one time before it becomes an organizational problem?
Oh, and if you missed it yesterday, apparently there's still a woot-off today.
Drink up.
33 comments | 0 recs
The All-Grit Team
I'm not exactly an authority on grit, but it was about time someone named an All-Grit Team. All-Star Week seemed appropriate.
- C Jason Kendall
- 1B Platoon: Doug Mientkiwicz / Kevin Millar
- 2B Mark Grudzielanek
- 3B Ryan Freel
- SS David Eckstein
- LF Scott Podsednik
- CF Aaron Rowand
- RF Eric Byrnes
If a DH were needed, the all-grit team would do one of two things:
- Bat the pitcher, because truly gritty players are throwbacks to when pitchers could hit for themselves
- Go with Willie Bloomquist.
The bench is a little unbalanced--in addition to the eight starters, 1B platoon, and Bloomquist, that leaves four or five spots. Again, these guys are throwbacks, so a 10-man pitching staff would have to do the job. That leaves two roster spots for Craig Counsell (team captain) and Nick Punto and three more for backup catchers. Doesn't really matter which ones, though I think Paul Bako has to be on the team.
It doesn't matter that there aren't any backup outfielders, because any truly gritty player can play anywhere in the diamond. In that sense, there are twelve backup outfielders. Similarly, it doesn't really matter which outfielders are assigned to which position, since any of the three could play center, but they, of course, will play wherever they're needed.
I haven't figured out what to do about the pitching staff, since pitchers aren't generally considered gritty in the same way that position players are. It seems that gritty pitchers are generally guys who have hung on past their prime (like Jamie Moyer) or lefty relievers (like Brian Shouse) or both.
You may note that I didn't include a batting lineup--the list above is just the fielding alignment. That's going to be a serious problem for manager Gabe Kapler--left to their own devices, everyone on this team would bat second.
35 comments | 1 recs


















