How quickly fortunes change: one season and now Pirate fans are wondering why they can't win in Milwaukee.

Sunday's Win Expectancy Graph
Sunday's BR Box Score

Saturday's Win Expectancy Graph
Saturday's BR Box Score

Friday's Win Expectancy Graph
Friday's BR Box Score

Obligatory photgraphic evidence of the world's most hyperbolic crime against humanity: the untucking of shirts.

So, how about Guillermo Mota as an unlikely hero? I'll admit I wasn't too excited when he was called into yesterday's game, but after the game even Tom H. gave him the credit he deserves.

Lost in everything else that happened yesterday: CC Sabathia was pulled after 6 innings, possibly because of the media uproar that occurred after his 130 pitch outing last week. In fact, 6-4-2 and the LA Times are still talking about Sabathia's likely free agent destinations and how his future performance might be affected by this season.

In other pitching news, The Junkball Blues is concerned about the inconsistency and workload of Manny Parra. He's already thrown 7 more innings in 2008 than he did in all of 2007, and still has a month to go in the starting rotation.

As noted in the Fanshots, Mat Gamel will spend the last week of the minor league season in Nashville as a tryout for a potential September callup. I'm curious: what kind of production do people expect from him in the big leagues at this point, as a guy who's spent one week above AA? Let me know in the comments.

As you may know, Baseball Tonight is conducting a series this season featuring the best player in the history of each franchise. Via Batter's Box Interactive, I discovered that ESPN.com's Page 2 is featuring the worst 3 players in each franchise's history. The NL is featured here, and the AL here. Feel free to check my math if you want, but I spotted 13 former Brewers on the list, including Hideo Nomo's appearance on the list for two different teams.

The Brewers rank 6th in Phil Rogers' most recent power rankings.

On injuries:

Josh Beckett still has numbness in his hand and his scheduled start has been pushed back once again, to Friday this time.
Johnny Cueto left yesterday's game after just 3 innings with a sore triceps tendon, and will get an MRI today.
J.D. Drew has a herniated disc in his back but is trying to avoid the DL.
Royals 3B Alex Gordon is on the DL with a torn muscle in his leg.
Orlando Hernandez will be out for at least a year following surgery on his big toe and may never throw the banana again.
Royals SP Luke Hochevar is done for the season with a bruised rib cage.
Rangers SP Eric Hurley is being shut down for the season with shoulder inflammation.
Geoff Jenkins strained his hip running out an infield single and has been placed on the DL.
Royals RP Ron Mahay has been placed on the DL with a sore left foot.
Mets SP John Maine may be shut down for the rest of the season with a bone spur in his shoulder.
Blue Jays OF Brad Wilkerson has been placed on the DL with convenient timing back spasms.

Remember when this was the most prominent event in Brewer second-half baseball? With a loss and an Angels win today, the Mariners could be the first team eliminated from playoff contention. If they don't do it today, the Nationals could sneak up on them and do it tomorrow.

Everyone has a bad day sometimes, and equipment guys are no exception: Twins SS Adam Everett had to change jerseys mid-game Friday to ensure he was wearing the proper spelling of Minnesota.

Oh, and this 1970's era Brewers commercial is...well, it's everything you'd expect it to be.

Drink up.

So on Friday I saw a friend, who greeted me with a hug. We had the following exchange:

"Hey, how are you?"
"Good. I'm finally getting over my cold."
"Oh...thanks for the hug, then."

I'm guessing you can about imagine how that turned out.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score

So CC Sabathia threw 130 pitches last night to finish his fifth complete game with the Brewers, giving him the outright NL lead in CG. Ben Sheets has 4. Only five other NL pitchers have more than one. Only 29 NL pitchers, given a full season to work on it, have accumulated more than 8 wins. Sabathia's done that since July.

But the fact remains that he threw 130 pitches last night in a situation where it almost certainly wasn't necessary. Baseball Musings and Defensive Indifference came down hard on Ned Yost for letting Sabathia finish the game.

In the meantime, Chop-n-Change notes that 7 of Sabathia's top ten most comparable pitchers were done by age 31, which is why they're hoping the Braves won't sign him.

Even if no one else in the bullpen was ready, Salomon Torres was available to pitch last night. Also in that story: Rickie Weeks is feeling better and may not hit the DL after all.

Ryan Braun left last night's game after aggravating his intercostal strain swinging and missing. After the game, Braun downplayed the severity of the injury...I guess we'll see. In-Between Hops correctly predicted the development.

A lot was made of Cecil Cooper's prediction that the Astros would sweep the Brewers this week. There weren't very many people on the bandwagon with him, though. A poll at Crawfish Boxes showed that 38% of fans thought the Astros would win one game out of 3, and Astros beat writer Brian McTaggart thinks they'll get swept.

One note got buried in today's The Official Site's Game Preview: Jason Kendall needs seven more starts to tie the record for the most starts by a catcher in a single season in franchise history. Even if Mike Rivera starts 3 times in the next 10 games, Jason Kendall will have caught more games than any catcher in Brewer history before September 1st.

On injuries:

A's SP Justin Duchsherer left last night's game in the 3rd inning with inflammation in his hip.
Twins SS Adam Everett was hit in the hand by a foul ball last night, but X-rays were negative. He's day-to-day, just like the rest of us.
Nats C Jesus Flores hasn't played since Saturday with a sprained knee.
Ian Kinsler is likely done for the year after being diagnosed with a sports hernia.
Twins OF Delmon Young jammed his ankle last night and may miss some time.

Has there ever been a post-deadline trading period that was this active? The Dodgers reportedly acquired Greg Maddux yesterday.

This is why teams don't want their top prospects playing in the Olympics: Matt LaPorta is day-to-day (and lucky to not be much worse) after being hit in the head with a pitch during Monday's game against China.

Al Reyes is not one of TheJay's active pitchers who faced the AL Brewers, but he did spend 3 seasons as a member of the AL Brewers. Today, he's looking for work after refusing an outright assignment and being released by the Rays.

Oh, and Sabathia's win last night may not have looked that surprising, but according to NBC Olympic announcer Al Trautwig, winning when everyone expects it is one of the most difficult things in sports. Click the link to read Keith Law's reply.

Drink up.

So, at least Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks are heating up, right?

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps

There's not much out there this morning that I (or someone else) haven't already told you about. We've covered that Gagne has biceps tendinitis and won't throw again until at least Sunday.

We've also covered that Ned is still here, even though Dayn Perry thinks he should be fired, Scott Miller of CBS Sportsline lists him second (behind Willie Randolph) on his list of managers on the hot seat, and some guy named Eli lists him second on his list of managers to be fired, behind M's manager John McLaren.

So, since it's a slow news day, here's a stat to think about instead:

Johnny Estrada, April 2007: .312/.346/.455
Johnny Estrada, May 2007: .236/.244/.449

Jason Kendall, April 2008: .301/.366/.398
Jason Kendall, May 2008: .224/.314/.290

On injuries:

Moises Alou is back on the DL with a strained calf, meaning Raul Casanova is back in the big leagues.
Twins SS Adam Everett has been placed on the DL with a strained shoulder.
Nats OF Austin Kearns is out 3-4 weeks after surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow.
Phillies OF Jayson Werth left last night's game with an oblique strain.
Padres P Chris Young has been placed on the DL with a broken nose after being hit by a line drive Wednesday.

The results from the most recent Baseball Happenings blogpoll have been posted. Josh Hamilton takes home the AL MVP this week, with Cliff Lee winning the AL Cy Young and Jacoby Ellsbury winning Rookie of the Year. Full results here. Here's the ballot I cast:

MVP:
1. Josh Hamilton
2. Kevin Youkilis
3. Carlos Quentin

Cy Young:
1. Cliff Lee
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka
3. Shaun Marcum

Rookies:
1. Greg Smith
2. Jacoby Ellsbury
3. David Murphy

Maybe I'm just an NL guy, but I think the NL Rookie of the Year race is far more interesting, with Fukudome, Geovany Soto and Jair Jurrjens, who Braves beat writer Dave O'Brien thinks might be the best rookie of them all.

Astros 3B Ty Wigginton is tough. But can his toughness be matched by a Houston Chronicle writer? Click here to find out!

Oh, and here's a story about the inaugral "All-you-can-eat day" at the Metrodome.

The Mug is off tomorrow, Sunday and Monday for the holiday weekend. Drink up.

Baseball season can be so silly.  Three days ago, I was feeling down about this team, and judging from the comments here, I was far from alone.  Then we picked off the last game against the Cardinals and the first two against the Reds (including another Cueto start!) and we're elated again.  As long as we don't look too closely at the offense, anyway.

For the record, Bill Hall's career numbers against the Reds are now 313/379/641.  18 of his 87 dingers have come against Cincinnati.  That's 21% of his home runs in 12% of his plate appearances.

Last night was the Brewers' fourth extra-inning game, and our fourth-extra inning win.  Statistically, teams tend to go about .500 in extra-inning games, just like they tend to be even in 1-run games.  Strong bullpens can be difference-makers, but usually not to the point where a team wins *all* of their extra-inning games.  There will be pundits who point to the Brewers 4-0 record in extras to show that we're overperforming a little bit, but I say: We were supposed to lose two of those games and we didn't.  It's either a gift or a sign that our bullpen is great.  Either one works for me.

Our usual morning fare:

• FanGraphs Win Probability Graph
  
• Baseball-Reference Box Score
  
• ESPN Video Highlights
  
• Baseball Digest Daily Recaps
• BP Postseason Odds, in which the last two wins move the Brewers up to a 33% chance of making the playoffs, best in the division.
  

This ESPN column lists the most dangerous platoon teams, and amazingly, the author would rather his lefty pitcher faces the Tigers than the Brewers.  Show some respect, dude!

WSB Chris suggests a new stat, Probable Wins, to give credit for outings like Suppan's yesterday.  He's right, of course, that the Win stat is hopelessly archaic and means very little.  He's also not the first person to think in this direction.  Baseball Prospectus has a whole flotilla of stats aimed at improving Wins, such as the relatively simple Expected Wins up to the not-simple-relative-to-anything SNLVAR.  According to Expected Wins, Suppan should have 1.6 wins, not just 1.  Last year--this is pretty amazing--Suppan went 12-12, and according to EW, he should have gone 11.9 and 11.9.

Between the Green Pillars does something I've been meaning to do: project bullpen usage.  Of course, Riske and Torres are really getting up there in innings so far.  I'm not worrying about it, though.  We've had a lot of close games, which naturally leads Ned to use these guys.  Also, there are more off days early in the season, so Ned is taking advantage of the opportunity to use the better relievers in more games without wearing them out (at least in the short term).  Last night showed that he's willing to use Mota for multiple innings, and I'm sure we'll have enough mop-up opportunities for Turnbow.

Injury news, which I'm actually going to alphabetize this morning:

• Doug Davis is throwing again, and feels good.
• Adam Everett is hitting the DL, which means the Twins infield is going to get even less recognizable, and even less productive.  (And they'll catch way fewer balls.)
• Mike Gonzalez is on track for an early return.  The Braves haven't had Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano around much at the same time, and that 8th/9th inning tandem could make them very dangerous.
  
• You probably stopped caring a long time ago (I certainly did), but Mark Prior is resuming his rehab.  The Padres expect him to pitch in the majors by June or so, which means he's on track for a 2013 return.
• Wandy Rodriguez left his start yesterday with a groin issue.  The Astros are not well prepared to lose a starter for any period of time.  In not-really related news, Houston signed Alay Soler to a minor league deal.  Is this the answer to Jeff Weaver?
  
• The Giants put Erick Threets on the DL.  Threets is no Shouse, but this probably makes them worse.

The Cubs actually recalled Matt Murton.  It'll be interesting to see if Lou uses him; at this point, any playing time he gets must be geared toward showcasing him for a trade.

This story is a few days old, and maybe KL linked it, but here's a guy with some suggestions to improve umpiring.  It seems like we've had particularly bad experiences this year.  That said, I don't think rhetoric like the one in this article is going to convince anybody: that is, "I was watching a game last night and the umpiring sucked."  Those stories add enough, but they're not enough.  Some researchers have already begun some work with PitchFX and umpires, and there will be much more in the coming years.  I would hope that MLB is doing some of it themselves.

Fernando Tatis has 8 home runs in 56 minor league at-bats.  Even 3TO isn't cranking them out of the park like that.

That's it for today...see y'all back here at 12:15 CT as we go for the sweep!

Morning. Let's skip talking about last night's game and the standings and get right into the Mug.

Last night's Win Expectancy Graph
Baseball Reference Box Score
Baseball Digest Daily Recaps
ESPN Video Highlights

With the loss, BP's win projection for the Brewers dropped four tenths to 81.7, but their odds of winning the NL Central, interestingly enough, went up four tenths to 17.4%.

Gabe Kapler Gabe Kapler Gabe Kapler. Both ESPN Video and Sports Illustrated are talking about him, ironically enough on the same day he ran into the wall in BP and was scratched from the lineup. The ESPN interview might be the most awkward professional interview I've seen in quite some time.

Gaslamp Ball has opened up a debate, once again, on batting the pitcher 8th. Fungoes takes it in a new direction and asks "Why bat the pitcher at all?"

Ryan Braun was given the day off yesterday to "relax." I don't know about you, but watching my team lose while Joe Dillon hit in my spot in the lineup wouldn't be relaxing for me. Maybe he had a drink with an umbrella in it.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Erik Bedard's hip will land him on the DL. The DL Informer thinks it could be serious.
Indians P Joe Borowski is headed to the DL with chronic ineffectiveness a strained tricep.
Twins SS Adam Everett will have his shoulder examined by team doctors today, and missed last night's game.
Nats C Paul Lo Duca missed last night's game after being hit in the hand with a pitch Sunday.
Kevin Millwood had to leave his most recent start with a bruised shin.
Braves P Peter Moylan is on the DL with an elbow strain severe enough to send him to Dr. James Andrews.
Alfonso Soriano strained his calf hopping to catch a fly ball last night, and is day-to-day.

Who knows if he can consistently catch anymore, but rumor has it the Reds are interested in signing Mike Piazza.

Maybe Dontrelle Willis' hyperextended knee will keep him from driving drunk.

Again, we've gone round and round on Eric Gagne's struggles, but one fact is inarguable: He's pitching much better than Jose Valverde.

The Dodgers are inviting bloggers to meet with club personnel. That's a nice touch. I don't mean to drop hints or anything, but I'd be open to meeting with the Brewers front office staff...y'know, more or less anytime.

And, for the second time this week, if you're looking for work, the Marlins may have your answer. I think it's always dangerous to include phrases like "limited supervision" in the first line of a job description. Maybe that's just me.

If you have something you'd like me to consider for inclusion in a future Mug, be sure to drop it in the comments.

That's all for today. Drink up.