While reading this morning's Mug, be sure to reload this page every few minutes to see if the Large Hadron Supercollider has destroyed the Earth yet.

Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score

So apparently Corey Hart doesn't like the fan interaction at home. I'll admit there's been a lot of booing lately. But realistically, I think the problem can be limited to one source. Here's the full list of things I've booed at Miller Park in 2008. I think there's a notable pattern:

A) Milwaukee Brewers manager Ned Yost.
B) Bad decisions made by Milwaukee Brewers manager Ned Yost.
C) Negative outcomes immediately stemming from bad decisions made by Milwaukee Brewers manager Ned Yost.

The pattern is subtle, but I think the solution to the problem is pretty obvious.

Adam Charles from Bugs & Cranks has some advice for Corey.

Getting back to Yost for a moment: I think I've figured out what we're doing wrong. When it became clear that management of the Milwaukee Brewers was headed in the wrong direction, one of us created Fire Ned Yost, but didn't specify a timetable. As an example of a better solution, behold one of my new favorite Dodger blogs: Fire Ned Coletti Now.

As I write this, you've got about an hour and 15 minutes (before 10 am) to go vote for the Brewers call of the coin flip to determine home-field advantage in tiebreaker games. Baseball Musings says if the vote ends up tied, Doug Melvin should just flip a coin. (Also noted in the Fanshots)

So Prince finally hit a home run yesterday. Unfortunately, with the Brewer loss the 5-way tie scenario for the NL Wild Card is still in play.

Gabe Kapler is likely done for the season. I guess this means Tony Gwynn is our last option in center, but I'm hoping Joe Dillon would get the AB's if a corner OF was needed.

Mike Greenberg wants to give the NL MVP to CC Sabathia. His second choice? Manny Ramirez. Mike Greenberg should not be allowed to vote for MVP.

It's a day late, but since there's still 3 games left in the series, here's Brewerfan.net's Brewers-Phillies series preview.

On injuries:

A's 2B Mark Ellis will require surgery to repair cartilage damage in his shoulder, but should be ready for spring training 2009.
Braves SP Charlie Morton is done for the year with pain in his shoulder blade.
Tigers OF Clete Thomas is out for the season and some of 2009 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

The Angels backed into a save situation last night, leading 7-0 in the 8th but allowing the Mariners back into it. That save situation, though, allowed Francisco Rodriguez to tie the single season saves record. Congratulations to him.

Yesterday I mentioned that Dusty Baker doesn't want to play the Reds' September call ups. Today, Redlegs Rundown asks if it's possible Dusty's long track record with pitchers has a new victim: Aaron Harang.

Oddly enough, one of baseball's younger managers doesn't want to play one of his September callups either: Royals rookie manager Trey Hillman isn't finding any playing time for fan favorite Kila Ka'aihue.

Drink up.

I know you'll all be very disappointed, but today's Trash Day was uneventful, so I don't have an anecdote to lead off the Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score

So, if you've been watching the games, you probably realize that Rickie Weeks is hitting .273/.467/.636 in the three games since the Durham trade. This one, however, snuck up on me: Bill Hall is hitting .405/.444/.833 with 4 home runs in his last 12 games. Adam Charles of Bugs & Cranks has a theory to explain it: Magic Skoal.

It's going to take more than chewing tobacco to get him back to the big leagues, but the Brewers signed Jay Gibbons to a minor league deal yesterday, ending his 27-game career with the Long Island Ducks.

After I complained in yesterday's Mug about the Whisnant rankings and suggested their ranking system could use a little work, I got an email from Paul Kuo of Whatifsports.com, who wanted to make sure I had seen their most recent power rankings. On the strength of the Sabathia trade the Brewers skyrocketed up the charts to fourth this week, so obviously the WIS rankings are better.

Also, CBSSports.com ranks the Brewers sixth, and second best in the NL.

TheJay is working to quantify Vulture Wins, and discovered that both Salomon Torres and Brian Shouse are among the league leaders. Reall,y, if you just start checking Recondite Baseball every day, you'll be one step ahead of everyone else when the Mug comes out.

On injuries:

White Sox 3B Joe Crede was scratched from last night's lineup with back stiffness.
Cards OF Chris Duncan has been placed on the DL with a bulging disc in his neck.
Reds SP Josh Fogg needed 30 stitches to repair damage done to his upper lip after being hit by a ball in batting practice.

Certainly, yesterday's most puzzling transaction was the Astros' decision to trade for Randy Wolf. The Astros are 12 games back of the Cubs and BP Postseason Odds gives them a .08% chance at making the playoffs, roughly 1 in 1220. R.J. Anderson of Beyond the Box Score is one of thousands who didn't like the move, but Astros beat writer Brian McTaggart defended it.

In other transactions, the Diamondbacks traded a prospect to the Nationals for Jon Rauch, meaning two of the tallest players in MLB history (along with Randy Johnson) are now on the same roster.

Here's a puzzling decision: Skyking162 has ranked the top 25 position players of right now. Well, really he's ranked the top 23 and given 18 more honorable mentions to get to 41. Here are some names on the list so far:

Evan Longoria, who has yet to finish his first big league season.
Brian Roberts
B.J. Upton
Mark Ellis
Rick Ankiel
Scott Rolen
David DeJesus
Aaron Rowand
Adrian Beltre

Yet somehow, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are nowhere to be found. With the possible exception of Longoria, there's not a single guy on that list who deserves to be ahead of Braun and Fielder. And Mark Ellis? That's a joke.

Francisco Rodriguez is threatening to become the first closer ever to reach 60 saves in a season. 6-4-2 has the math on what it will take for him to get there.

These seem to tie together nicely: In-Between Hops has a list of the greatest living players in the history of 29 franchises. Joe Posnanski takes a look at players who posted more than three "great" seasons in their careers.

If you're looking for a lesson on somewhat advanced statistics, this debate between Tangotiger and Geoff Baker is pretty instructive on the strengths, weaknesses and correct uses of ERA+.

Oh, and here's a hurricane prediction that's as accurate as any you'll see today.

Drink up.

With CC Sabathia in the fold, the Brewers have made one huge move to improve the team.  There are few things you can do that make more impact than replacing your 5th starter with an ace.

Beyond that, it's not entirely clear what else Doug Melvin could do to improve the Brewers' playoff chances.  Some of us would like to see a bullpen addition or two.  I'm skeptical, largely because we're unlikely to get anyone much better than Riske or Gagne.  If such a player became available, he'd be very expensive.  Think Linebrink.  I wouldn't mind a minor move, but I don't think we can count on increasing the win total via new relievers.

That leaves the offense.  A quick glance at sOPS+ by position tells the story.  The Crew is average or better at every position except for catcher and second base.  We can rule out an improvement at catcher, both because Kendall has been so good defensively, and because a substantial offensive improvement would be next to impossible to come by.  Just about every good catcher plays on a contender.

In fact, the sheer number of contenders makes it tough to envision many deals getting done.  I suppose another few teams may decide they're out of it before July 31, but as is, I only count 11 or 12 teams that should throw in the towel, and I'm including clubs like the Rockies and Blue Jays, whose GMs may not agree with me.

So.  That leaves us with about a dozen teams, each of which have a second baseman who may or may not be worth acquiring.

To set some benchmarks: Rickie is currently OPSing 687, while team second basemen are averaging 688--Counsell is bringing up the OBP and dragging down the SLG.  The average second baseman in the NL this year OPS's 743, while the average lead-off guy OPS's 745.  Roughly speaking, the difference between Rickie production and average production for the rest of year is worth about one win. 

One more consideration.  In his career, Weeks has OPS'd about 100 points higher against lefties.  That's unsurprising, so I'm comfortable expecting that to continue.  With that in mind, a lefty replacement with a marked platoon split would have the potential to improve the team more than a righty replacement who would play second every day.

Let's look at some options:

• Brian Roberts, Orioles.  If we're going to really go for it, this is the guy.  Unless the Rangers have an immediate slump and offer up Ian Kinsler (fat chance!), Roberts is the best player available at the position, by far.  He's a switch hitter, but over his career he's had typical lefty platoon splits--about 100 points higher vRHP.  The splits are even this year, but I'll take the 4000 PA sample, thank you very much.  If he and Rickie have second halves just like their first halves, the difference is a staggering three wins--and that's just at the plate.  Even using more conservative estimates, acquiring Roberts would probably have as big of an impact on the win total as picking up CC.
• Ray Durham, Giants.  His name has already come up in trade rumors, and for obvious reasons.  Unlike the Orioles, Rockies, and plenty of others, San Fran realizes they are out of it, and there's certainly no reason to keep Durham around to help them lose.  He might be one of the few available players who wouldn't be a defensive upgrade on Weeks, but his bat is solid (800 OPS so far this year) and he's another switch hitter.  His splits are a bit weird--this year he's much better against righties, but in 05-07 he was stronger vLHP.  Durham wouldn't have near the impact that Roberts would, but presumably, he'd come much cheaper.
• Mark Grudzielanek, Royals.  This Wisconsin-native All-Grit Team starter is having his second straight solid season at the plate, OPSing 770.  I was about to write it off to an unsustainably high BABIP of .343 this year, but he's consistently in the 330 range.  Grudz is a righty, meaning that we wouldn't get any platoon advantage pairing him with Rickie, but his glove may well make him a more valuable potential acquisition than Durham.  I can't imagine why the Royals would hold on to him if we offered any kind of useful piece.
• Jose Lopez, Mariners.  This list goes downhill fast.  Some people still think of him as good because of a solid first half in 2006.  As is, he's not much better at the plate than Rickie (729 OPS) and his glove is suspect.  The Mariners should be in fire sale mode, but Lopez is under control for another couple years and there isn't an obvious replacement nipping at his heels.  He wouldn't be cheap, and he wouldn't be good.  Pass.  (Also, did you know the Mariners payroll this year is over 115MM?  Wow.)
• Mark Ellis, A's.  Ellis wouldn't be much of an improvement at the plate--238/332/384 is right in line with what Rickie would do with better BABIP luck--but he is considered one of the best defensive second sackers in baseball.  He'll be a free-agent after the season, so unless the A's go on a tear starting this weekend, Billy Beane should make him available.  I don't know what kind of package Beane would require, but Ellis's defense probably makes him worth about as much as Durham or Grudz.  My gut says that Grudz would come cheaper.

There will surely be other guys out there--Felipe Lopez comes to mind, as does Mark Loretta--but the five listed above are the only ones who have any shot at being a clear win over Rickie.  I don't think Melvin will mortgage the future to the extent he'd need to in order to grab Roberts, but with the trio of Durham, Grudz, and Ellis, it might be something of a buyer's market, in which case we could improve the team by giving up some pieces we wouldn't miss.

So the Brewers win, the Cardinals lose, the Cubs lose, and they appear to be signing Jim Edmonds. That's win-win-win-win if I ever saw it.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps

The circle of life continues: Chris Capuano will have Tommy John surgery as soon as Thursday, giving up the effort to come back without it. Also on Thursday, 2006 first round pick Jeremy Jeffress will return from his 50-game drug suspension and report to Brevard County.

Beyond that, it's kind of a slow day for Brewer news. Baseball Analysts, though, did take a look at players looking to avoid a sophomore slump, including one guy you may have heard of who's hit 6 extra base hits in 3 days.

On injuries:

Milton Bradley was held out of last night's Rangers game with a sore shoulder.
J.D. Drew injured his wrist making a sliding catch and is day-to-day.
A's 2B Mark Ellis missed last night's game with a hamstring injury, and will miss a few more.
O's C Ramon Hernandez missed last night's game with a sprained left wrist.
Reds SS Jeff Keppinger fouled a ball off his knee last night and has a fractured kneecap.
O's 3B Melvin Mora was hit by a ball in warmups yesterday and missed last night's game.

If you haven't been paying attention, Lance Berkman is pretty hot right now. He's hitting .605 in his last 11 games, and has scored a run in 15 straight games, leaving him 2 games shy of tying the NL record Rickie Weeks tied earlier this season.

Berkman also won this week's BaseballHappenings blogpoll for NL MVP. Brandon Webb ran away from the field in the Cy Young voting, and Geovany Soto dominated the Rookie voting. Here's the ballot I cast:

MVP:
1. Lance Berkman
2. Chase Utley
3. Chipper Jones

Cy Young:
1. Brandon Webb
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Carlos Zambrano

Rookie of the Year:
1. Geovany Soto
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Kosuke Fukudome

Click the link above for the full results.

A rare former Brewer trifecta happened yesterday: The Mets designated Nelson Figueroa for assignment, called up Claudio Vargas and activated Matt Wise from the DL in the same day.

Oh, and here's a story about Tigers P Nate Robertson's unrequited love for bats.

Drink up.