Tuesday's Frosty Mug
I don't really have much for you today, but the 2009 Marcel Projections are out, so if you've got a big empty gap in your schedule that's usually filled by the Mug but isn't today, you could go play with those. I've got them open in another window right now, waiting for a handful of free minutes.
Everyone else with time on their hands is talking about the NL MVP voting and the various BBWAA writers who came in with off the wall selections. This time the conversation hits close to home, as one of the writers taking a lot of criticism is our own Tom H, who had Albert Pujols seventh on his ballot, behind Prince Fielder. That's both the lowest Pujols appeared and the highest Fielder appeared on any ballot. Let's wander through the field of frustration for a moment:
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs wants to know how Chase Utley finished 15th. So do some of the commenters in this FanShot.
- Chuckie Hacks called Tom H.'s ballot "asinine" and wonders how Carlos Delgado could've ended up ahead of Pujols.
- Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Box Score says the most valuable Brewer wasn't neither Braun or Fielder, it was J.J. Hardy.
- Baseball Musings thought Braun belonged around eighth. That's about where I expected him to finish too.
- The commenters over at Baseball Think Factory are having some fun with Tom H.'s ballot too.
- Goatriders of the Apocalypse thought the 2008 NL MVP was...Brad Lidge? I still have no idea how Lidge got two first place votes.
- The Griddle wasn't a fan of Tom H.'s ballot either.
- Lookout Landing is also unimpressed with Chase Utley's 15th place finish.
- Peter Gammons is upset about Hanley Ramirez's 11th place finish.
- Todd Zolecki reveals the one voter who left Ryan Howard off of his MVP ballot.
Also, Hot Foot thinks the Mets should sign Ben Sheets.
If the BBWAA voters had seen this, they probably would've voted about the same anyway: Bill James says Prince Fielder is the seventh worst baserunner in baseball.
If only all the decisions were this easy: The Brewers must either place Mark Rogers on the 40-man roster, or risk losing him in the Rule 5 Draft. I don't think there's much risk there.
Everyone knows versatility is an important skill. That's why the Brewers had two catchers in the top ten and bottom ten in Recondite Baseball's minor league CS% leaderboards.
On the hot stove:
Braves: Submitted a contract offer to Will Ohman yesterday.
Giants: Signed Jeremy Affeldt yesterday, the first free agent of the offseason to sign with a new team.
Mets: Are reportedly making offers to Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes and Derek Lowe.
Phillies: are reportedly pursuing relievers Juan Cruz, Doug Brocail and Russ Springer.
Red Sox: Tim Wakefield may retire due to pain in his throwing shoulder.
Elsewhere, it appears the Mariners could announce a new manager as soon as today and it won't be Ned Yost or Willie Randolph.
Matt LaPorta has had quite the season. He played for two minor league teams, was part of a blockbuster trade, got hit in the head by a pitch in the Olympics, and got the flu and fouled a pitch off his ankle in Venezuela. He returned home yesterday and my guess would be he's ready for a break.
A tech note: MLB.com is dumping Microsoft Silverlight and switching over to Flash. All I knew about Silverlight was that it was a pain to have to tell my computer I didn't want it every time I logged into Gameday Audio. Good riddance.
Oh, and the Brewers never really found another blogger to pick up the slack after Taylor Green was sent home from the AFL, so we'll have to settle for Mariner prospect Joe Woerman's story about getting nailed by a speed limit enforcement camera.
Drink up.
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Phillies Preview Part 3 with Peter of The Good Phight
By the time you finish reading this article, you might just know more about the Phillies than you do about the Brewers. At least you'll be ready to make fun of Brian Anderson when he says silly things on national TV.
To finish off our three-part Phillies q&a, we're going to turn to Peter Baker (WholeCamels) of The Good Phight, our sister blog in the SBN network. Scroll down for the other parts: We covered the Phils offense with Tim Malcom, the pitching staff with Tom Goyne, and now it's time for...well, everything else.
BCB: Who's your Phillies MVP for the 2008 season?
Peter Baker: Normally I'm loathe to drink the Cult of the Closer Kool-Aid, but I'm going to go with Brad Lidge.
My favorite "quick-n-dirty" MVP stat - WPA - shows Brad Lidge with a 5.43 WPA, higher than any NL pitcher (starter or reliever) and behind only Cliff Lee in the majors. And seventh overall among hitters and pitchers. Although I hate the Save stat as a be-all, end-all in reliever evaluation, 41-for-41 is awfully damned good. And the trickledown effect of 9th inning stability on the rest of the pitching staff played a huge part in making this bullpen one of the very best in baseball.
Chase Utley is a close second, but the absolute disappearance of his home run power over the season's second half was disappointing and troublesome. His terrific defense is underrated, and is a huge consideration in ranking him above the next guy...
Ryan Howard's incredibly sexy HR and RBI totals, and brilliant September, don't make up for the fact that he was an absolute anchor for the season's first six weeks, and that he's a butcher in the field.
BCB: If you had to pick one guy to have a monster series, who would you choose? (Let's make things harder and take Hamels, Howard, and Utley out of contention.)
PB: Pat Burrell. If Burrell is raking, then he's probably hitting Sabathia pretty well, and as their best right-handed hitter, they're going to need Burrell to get some good swings if they hope to knock off CC. Burrell's been terrible since the start of August; hopefully a couple days off will do him good.
BCB: I haven't paid a whole lot of attention lately, but last time I checked, Phillies fans felt about Charlie Manuel about the same way that Brewers fans felt about Yost. But now, for the second year in a row, you've charged into the postseason, so it's seems like Manuel can't be all bad. What's your take on having Manuel at the helm?
PB: It's gone from utter contempt in many circles to an acceptance of him, warts and all. He still struggles with in-game decisions (and what manager is blameless here?), but it's pretty well confirmed that he runs a loose clubhouse that has contributed in no small part to two consecutive teams rallying from fairly deep September deficits to claim the division on the season's last weekend.
Personally, I like him. He always has his players' backs and resists any and all urges to throw his guys under the bus. Which can be difficult here -- Philly fans want blood and they want blame. And I think his past experience as a hitting instructor/guru has only done good things for players like Howard and Utley.
I do find it funny, however, that some of his more vocal critics, who tend to harp on his West Virginia heritage and the associated accent, don't exactly sound like Sir Laurence Olivier themselves. "Yo, dis guy sounds like some redneck or sumthin', whaddanidiot!!"
BCB: The two "defensive" spots in your lineup are third base and catcher, for Pedro Feliz and Carlos Ruiz (hey, they rhyme...kind of) respectively. Both of them have good defensive reputations--are they deserved? Is it worth having Feliz manning a typically offensive position despite his ~300 OBP? Or maybe, at this point, anything would feel like an upgrade on Wes Helms?
PB: It's probably wrong to answer this question based on emotion, but for the first time since Scott Rolen left Philadelphia, I don't tense up the instant a ball is hit hard toward the third baseman when Pedro Feliz is playing. Whether that presents any real value vis-a-vis wins and losses is unlikely, but it's made the game-viewing experience that much more enjoyable for me. He also had a (probably unmaintainable) knack for close-and-late hitting, compiling a .943 OPS in those situations.
As for Carlos Ruiz... well, he has a decent walk rate and doesn't strike out too much. His defense is fine, but I think everyone pretty much recognizes that he's a placeholder until the Lou Marson Era begins in Philly.
BCB: CBP has always had a rep as a hitter's paradise, but it looks like it played closer to neutral this year. Any ideas why that happened? Any Phillies players who seem to benefit (or suffer) at home?
PB: I think moving the left field fence back before the 2006 season helped a bit. I also think that, while home runs remain inflated, the shorter fences shrink the outfield, leading to more flyball outs and fewer doubles and triples, which mitigates damage done by high home run totals.
There is also some speculation that the weather -- it was a relatively mild summer in the Delaware Valley -- suppressed home run totals in contrast with a normally hot, humid Philadelphia summer.
I also think a lot of the reputation comes from the introduction of the somewhat deserved meme into the league and media consciousness ("In that bandbox, NO lead is safe!") that just spiralled out of control until it became incontrovertible fact. And I have to love the soundbites from opposing pitchers who get bombed there: "That's not a home run in any other park." Hey, Genius, your guys get the same field and same dimensions. Deal with it. John Smoltz is the worst at this.
Anecdotally, Pat Burrell is always the guy who gets pegged as a CBP beneficiary; however, his home/road splits this season do not bear this out (.786 OPS at home, .964 OPS on the road). Ryan Howard certainly seems to poke a lot of his opposite field shots into the first couple of rows in left; he hit 26 homers at home this year, against 22 on the road, so it's not like it was a monumental difference.
BCB: One more. True or Super-True: The gritty veteran presence of Geoff Jenkins, even when injured, played a huge part in propelling the Phillies to the playoffs.
PB: Geoff Jenkins and Brett Favre both left Wisconsin in the same year. COINCIDENCE?!
Geoff needed his lookalike closer to him. The Jets are just 70 miles up the Turnpike from Philly. That's all it is.
BCB: Thanks, Peter! I think we can all agree that whoever wins this series should go the World Series. Especially if it's the Brewers.
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Phillies Preview Part 2 with Tom of Balls, Sticks and Stuff
This isn't the first time Tom Goyne and I have traded q's and a's at the outset of a Brewers-Phillies series, but I'm pretty sure it's the awesomest. (The series. Not sure about the q's and a's.)
Tom is the proprietor of Philly sports blog Balls, Sticks, and Stuff--technically not just a baseball site, but I think we won't be seeing a whole lot of Eagles coverage there for at least another week or so.
I've appointed Tom my official Phillies pitching expert, so he was kind enough to give us the rundown on what to expect from the guys who will be keeping Corey Hart off the basepaths. (And yes--oh yes--putting Craig Counsell on.) For Part 1, covering the Phillies offense, just scroll on down. And look for Part 3 later on tonight.
BCB: No doubt about it, Hamels is a stud. I'm surprised he hasn't gotten more attention in the Lincecum-fest that has been Cy Young handicapping. Does he have any weaknesses Sveum might like to know about? Is the potential righty-heaviness of the Brewers lineup a cause for concern?
Tom Goyne: I'm surprised he hasn't gotten a little more attention too, particularly given the way the media likes to belittle the Phillies little ballpark. As for Hamels, if anything, left-handed batters give him more trouble that righties, probably because of his ridiculous change-up. His only weakness is that he gets a little too excited sometimes in big games an overthrows a bit. As long as he remains Cool Hand Cole, he'll be fine.
BCB: Moving on to Game 2, what's going on with Brett Myers? He had a spectacular second half, but are you putting much weight on his less-spectacular September?
TG: At this point, Myers is a complete enigma. He was routinely shelled the first half of the season, was sent down to the minors to get his head on straight (both figuratively and literally... When Myers is going bad, his head flies towards first base as he releases the ball), came back and had a lights out second half until his last few starts. He says he has it figured out, but with Brett you never can tell. I'll say this: Expect either a dominant performance or a putrid one. There is very little in between with Brett.
BCB: Finally, Game 3: Jamie Moyer. Is he doing something different this year? I see he's keeping more balls in the park--is that just a fluke, or did a really old dog learn a new trick?
TG: Anecdotally and statistically, he throws a cutter more than he used to and he's added a fastball that sinks more [which means he has about 27 different types of fastballs he throws], resulting in more groundballs. That has kept his home run rate down. In addition, for reasons I can't explain right now, Citizens Bank Park has played more neutral this year than any other year in it's history, so that's helped him a bit too.
BCB: I hate to send you so many "are you worried about..." questions, but...Brad Lidge is your closer. You are headed to the postseason. Discuss.
TG: Lidge's first few months with the Phillies were just lights out, he was untouchable. The Phillies rewarded him with a contract extension and after that, he seemed to lose a little of his edge. Don't misunderstand, he never did blow a save and rarely gave up a run, but the saves could get a little dicey at times. Saturday was a little more dicey than usual, but that is the type of thing that has happened. In the final analysis though, there are things I worry about before Lidge. The Bridge to Lidge as we say is a little more scary as those relievers were used heavily all year long.
BCB: Here's another fun one: If Hamels or Myers is blown out, or gets hurt, or whatever, and the Phillies need to come up with 6+ innings of relief to keep them in the ballgame, what should Charlie Manuel do?
TG: It depends. If J.A. Happ makes the post-season roster, I expect he will be used as the long man. He's had a pretty good run with the Phillies as a rookie and I think he'd be their best chance to keep them in a game. Otherwise, you'd hope to get two innings out of Clay Condrey or Chad Durbin, then two from Ryan Madson, maybe one from J.C. Romero, and then one out of Brad Lidge.
BCB: I'll send your question back at you: Care you make any predictions?
TG: I hate to do this, but I think the Phillies will do pretty well against the Brewers, mainly because the Brewers' rotation is in disarray. I'm already mad at myself for saying that, but time will tell...
BCB: Thanks, Tom! We're a firm believer in jinxes here at Brew Crew Ball, so we agree. You should be mad at yourself.
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Monday's Frosty Mug
A four-game sweep would be almost as delicious as the Corn Dogs at the Iowa State Fair. I missed most of yesterday's game waiting in line for one.
Sunday's Win Expectancy Graph
Sunday's BR Box Score
Saturday's Win Expectancy Graph
Saturday's BR Box Score
Friday's Win Expectancy Graph
Friday's BR Box Score
How back-and-forth was yesterday's game? Check out the front page at BR and scroll down. Three of the five biggest plays in all of baseball yesterday happened in the last six innings of yesterday's game.
Tom H. gives a lot of credit, as we all should, to Mike Rivera, who started for just the 12th time all year, but still got on base 5 times yesterday.
Of course, after the game the Brewers continued to commit the most heinous atrocity in the history of organized sport: they untucked their shirts.
Ryan Braun isn't feeling any better. I'm just hoping his sore back doesn't have anything to do with the time he's been spending with Marisa Miller.
CC Sabathia has already thrown 57 innings as a Brewer, but has allowed just 40 hits. I thought that was worth noting.
So apparently Catfish Stew tracks the Heavyweight Champion of Baseball. The process seems pretty simple: 2008 started with the Red Sox as champions, and anyone who beats the champions takes over the crown. During interleague play the title passed over to the NL via the Mets, and now the Brewers have it. I don't think a parade is planned.
The Brewers rank 8th in Phil Rogers' weekly power rankings, just ahead of the World Baseball Classic. They're 15th in Skyking162's rankings.
On injuries:
Mariners utilityman Willie Bloomquist has been placed on the DL with a strained hamstring.
Chris Carpenter left last night's game after 66 pitches with a triceps strain.
Carl Crawford has been placed on the DL with a "right middle finger tendon subluxation." That's a new one for me.
Jose Contreras will miss the rest of 2008 and some of 2009 with a ruptured Achilles tendon.
Twins OF Michael Cuddyer was hit in the foot with a line drive last night in a AAA rehab game and suffered a broken bone.
Orlando Hudson broke his wrist Saturday and will miss the rest of the season.
Carlos Lee has a broken finger and is out for the season, ending any playoff hopes he thought the Astros had.
Brad Lidge was unavailable for the second straight day Sunday with biceps tendinitis.
Scott Rolen has been placed on the DL with a sore shoulder.
Tim Wakefield is on the DL with a stiff shoulder.
Baseball Musings notes that the Cubs just finished a 13 game run played entirely within the NL Central, and went 10-3. He says they may have put the NL Central away during that stretch. BP Postseason Odds have them at 96.7% to make the playoffs. These guys realize there's 44 games left and we're talking about the Cubs, right?
Oh, and the Gwinnett Braves would like some help naming a burrowing rodent.
Drink up.
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Monday's Full Time Frosty Mug Return
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
First, if you haven't seen them yet, the specifics of the trade: In exchange for a 3 month rental of C.C. Sabathia and the increased potential of a long playoff run, the Brewers are giving up Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson and West Virginia reliever Rob Bryson. They will likely also add Brevard Co. 3B Taylor Green.
Of course, some people have written about this:
Baseball Intellect has a nice overview of the trade, complete with a review of Sabathia's stuff, if you're not familiar with him.
In-Between Hops likes the move.
Phil Rogers says it's time to take the Brewers seriously again...so he ranks them behind All-Star arguments in his most recent power poll.
Thomas Wayne of Dugout Central pulls out the smallest possible sample size and says the Sabathia move won't help the Brewers, based on his 7+ ERA in four career postseason starts.
I think the most interesting Sabathia conversation has yet to start, though: Who does he replace in the rotation? Assuming Sheets and Suppan are safe, and Dave Bush is similarly safe based on his recent performances and Ned Yost's man-crush on him, then we're down to Seth McClung and Manny Parra. In the Fanposts, Badgermaniac suggests platooning them. What do you think?
A semi-related note: The Biz of Baseball has made a list of six GMs on the hot seat. If this move doesn't work out and Doug Melvin traded a large chunk of the future for a 3 month rental on a team that misses the playoffs, he'll likely be on lists like that next season.
Also, while I doubt he'll slide directly into Sabathia's spot in the rotation, the Indians signed Jeff Weaver yesterday.
Are the Brewers done dealing? Buster Olney, via The Brew Town Beat, says the answer may be no. They're reportedly still talking to the Padres about Randy Wolf and Greg Maddux.
Somehow overshadowed in all of this: The Brewers finished a 3-game sweep of the Pirates yesterday, and J.J. Hardy is hitting .468/.507/1.000 in his last 15 games with 9 doubles, 8 HR and 19 RBI.
All told, the last 24 hours have certainly been more interesting than sitting on the roof.
On injuries:
Braves reliever Manny Acosta injured his hamstring running out a sac bunt and has been DL'ed.
Braves P Jeff Bennett is on the DL after injuring himself throwing to first.
Lance Berkman missed yesterday's game with what sounds like a pretty nasty eye condition.
A's SS Bobby Crosby is on the DL with a strained hamstring.
D-Backs RP Juan Cruz is on the DL with a strained oblique.
Johnny Damon is on the DL for the first time in his career after injuring his shoulder colliding with the wall Friday.
Nats OF Elijah Dukes will be out 4-6 weeks after having arthroscopic surgery to repair damage to his patella.
Phillies reliever Tom Gordon is on the DL with elbow inflammation.
Orlando Hernandez pitched four rehab innings yesterday. It's unclear whether he threw the banana.
Reds OF Norris Hopper will miss the rest of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Braves IF Omar Infante is on the DL with a strained hamstring
Roy Oswalt's next start is being pushed back to give him time to recover from pain in his hip.
Troy Tulowitzki is on the DL after breaking a maple bat against the wall and slicing open his hand.
A quick maple bat story: Saturday night I attended my first game at Coors Field (worth seeing if you're in Denver, but don't go out of your way to get there). I was nearly reduced to tears by the inane conversation of two young women behind me, who showed incredible perseverance by hanging in there through 3 full hours and two rain showers despite the fact that they had almost no idea a game was going on. Some examples from their conversation, when they weren't too busy talking about drinks, hookups and drugs:
Stories like this put our pitching conversations into perspective: Mark Mulder is starting for the Cardinals again.
The Phillies have taken an opportunity to drive up the price of closers, and rewarded Brad Lidge's half-season of effective bullpen work with a 3-year, $37.5 million extension.
Oh, and by the way, I hate the X-Games with the fire of a thousand suns, but I love Darkmane.
Drink up.
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