On the actual value of Mike Cameron
Now, $9.25 million is a lot of money. In $100 bills, it would pretty much fill this suitcase.
If you assume the Brewer payroll will be around $90 million next season, give or take depending on free agent signings, Mike Cameron stands to make about 11.1% of the Brewers' total payroll. That number is less than Jeff Suppan (13.8%), only slightly more than Bill Hall (9.3%) and much, much more than Ryan Braun (0.8%).
In several threads discussing the option, there seems to be a percentage of the population that feels like $9.25 million was too much to spend on Cameron, an above-average defensive CF who hit .243/.331/.477 in 2008, his tenth consecutive and eleventh out of twelve season with an OPS+ over 100. I'll agree that $9.25 million is a lot of money, and perhaps more than I'd like to spend, but if not Cameron, then what? Let's take a look down three other paths the Brewers could have pursued:
Option 1: Replace from within
Cost: Cheap. Any two of these guys would cost less than $1 million for 2009.
Six minor leaguers played in at least ten games in center field for either Nashville (AAA) or Huntsville (AA) in 2008. Thanks to Jeff, we can calculate their major league equivalents for 2008 relatively easily. Here are the six, sorted by their MLE OPS:
Laynce Nix (AAA): .238/.287/.429
Lorenzo Cain (AA): .228/.293/.383
Michael Brantley (AA): .264/.322/.323
Hernan Iribarren (AAA): .233/.274/.283
Tony Gwynn (AAA): .231/.272/.274
Freddy Parejo (AA): .233/.248/.289
Of those, Nix is no longer with the organization, Brantley was the PTBNL in the Sabathia deal, and Iribarren has played just 11 games in center field in his career. Lorenzo Cain has played just six games above AA, and only played half of 2008.
So if you want to go really cheap and create the possibility of half innings that go 7-8-9 with Kendall, Cain/Iribarren/Gwynn, Pitcher, that's one option. On Yovani Gallardo's starts he should hit seventh.
Option 2: Sign another free agent to replace Cameron
Cost: Moderate
Could the Brewers bring in another stop-gap centerfielder for less? Possibly. Let's look at the options:
Gabe Kapler, Brewers: There's no guarantee Kapler will be back, as he's coming off a career year and the Red Sox reportedly have interest in him. He's never had 500 AB's in a season, and hasn't even had 500 plate appearances since 2001. He had a career year and a nice comeback in 2008, but spent 2007 out of baseball, and in the five seasons before that he posted OPS+'s of 75, 85, 77, 65 and 77. He's only 33 and coming off a career year, so my guess is he'll sign for either 2 or 3 years at $3.5-$4 million per. If you sign him for that and he either can't physically handle playing full time or is ineffective, then you're back to the options listed above.
Jim Edmonds, Cubs: Came back to hit .256/.369/.568 for the Cubs in part-time duty after a rough start that led to his release in San Diego. He's 39 years old and hasn't appeared in 120 games since 2005. He's almost certainly not capable of playing everyday, but if you'd like to give him a shot I'd guess about $3 million for one year could do it.
Mark Kotsay, Red Sox: Hit /276/.329/.403 for the Braves and Red Sox in 2008. He's a serviceable big league CF with decent experience and while he hasn't reached a 100 OPS+ in any of the last four seasons, he was only truly terrible in one of them. The downside: he made $8 million in 2008, and since he's really the only other everyday option available in free agency, he'll probably get something like 3 years, $27 million, to make him $25k cheaper than Cameron.
Scott Podsednik, Rockies or So Taguchi, Phillies: Podsednik hasn't been a full-timer since 2006. He had a nice comeback in Colorado this year, but still only hit .253/.322/.333. Taquchi hit .220/.283/.297 for the Phillies this season and, at 38 years old, is likely done. Either might take a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Neither should be depended on to provide anything.
Option 3: Move Ryan Braun/Corey Hart to CF and look for a corner outfielder
Cost: Depends on the corner outfielder
CHONE projects Mike Cameron as about three runs above average defensively in center field in 2009. Braun projects at about 7 runs below average in center, and Hart projects at 9. Braun has never played there before, so I'm not sure how reliable that number is. But, assuming one of the two would be 8 runs below average, the new corner outfielder would need to be an average defender and 11 runs better than Mike Cameron offensively to break even.
There are some Brewers that could be a fit here. Brad Nelson (.246/.321/.393 MLE in Nashville) is as close to big league ready as he'll ever get, in all likelihood. Mat Gamel (.273/.326/.430 MLE in Huntsville) could work, and a free agent to fill a corner spot is easier to find than a center fielder. This is probably the most viable of the three options, but it weakens the Brewers a lot defensively, and could mean Ryan Braun's second position change in as many years.
So what do you think? What should the Brewers have done?
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Monday's Frosty Mug
Today's collection of links is actually the largest since the end of the season, so let's get right to it.
If you've been reading the site over the weekend you likely know all of this news, but in case you've been away all weekend, here's what you missed:
- Dale Sveum will be back for 2009 after all, as hitting coach. (as noted in this FanShot)
- Craig Counsell's option for 2009 was declined. He could still return as a free agent, of course.
- Mike Maddux won't be back either, after being "overwhelmed by a huge deal" to take over as pitching coach in Texas. The Brewers reportedly offered him a multi-year deal. (Noted in this FanShot) The Newberg Report has a story from the Rangers' side.
- Joe Dillon also won't be back. The A's claimed him off waivers after the Brewers DFA'd him last week.
- Ken Rosenthal is reporting the Brewers' offer to CC Sabathia was in fact for $100 million, but the contract was for five years, not four. For me, this removes any possibility Sabathia will return. (noted in this FanShot)
- The Brewers have until tomorrow to decide if Mike Cameron will return in 2009.
One would assume Doug Melvin is at least listening to offers for J.J. Hardy. The Junkball Blues, meanwhile, crunched the numbers to figure out what kind of production would be needed from Hardy and Alcides Escobar to justify moving Hardy to third and Bill Hall out of the lineup.
Planning on making a trip to Vegas? Current odds have the Brewers at 15-to-1 to win the 2009 World Series. The odds would have to get a lot better before I'd be interested. Right now, 15-to-1 is a better shot than 19 other teams have, and tied with the Dodgers and Twins. (h/t Redleg Nation)
Tim Kurkijian says the Sabathia Sweepstakes is the third most interesting story of the offseason. With Sabathia the Brewers had the sixth best starting rotation in all of baseball, according to Beyond the Box Score.
Sabathia, Ray Durham and Russell Branyan all filed for free agency over the weekend, joining these players:
Angels Darren Oliver, Juan Rivera
Athletic Alan Embree
Cub Kerry Wood and also Henry Blanco,
Mariners Raul Ibanez, Willie Bloomquist, Miguel Cairo
Marlins Mark Hendrickson, Arthur Rhodes
Mets Pedro Martinez, Luis Ayala, Tony Armas, Moises Alou, Ricardo Rincon, Ramon Martinez and also Orlando Hernandez
Phillies So Taguchi, Tom Gordon
Pirates Doug Mientkiewicz, Chris Gomez, Jason Michaels, Luis Rivas
Rockies Brian Fuentes, Matt Herges, Livan Hernandez, Adam Melhuse, Scott Podsednik
At this point I feel obligated to remind you that Orlando Hernandez is free to throw the banana for other teams.
FanGraphs has built the All Free Agent Bargain Team. There are some decent players on there, but that team would lose most of the time.
As we look into the future, few things are abolutely certain, but we can say this: despite boatloads of other teams making the exodus from spring training sites in Florida to Arizona, the Red Sox are committed to training in Florida through 2038.
It's a good thing we'll probably have some time to learn to say his name: The Pirates have signed an 18-year-old shortstop from South Africa named Mpho Ngoepe. There has never been a South African player in the major leagues. Have there been any from anywhere in Africa? I do not know.
Indians minor leaguer Randy Newsom's blogs from Venezuela are really making me want to go see a game there.
Finally, let's say you're the Washington Nationals. You lost 102 games in 2008, the franchise's first 100 loss season since 1976. You set a modern era single season record for lowest attendance in a new ballpark. You could count the number of fans listening to your games on the radio or watching them on TV on your fingers and toes. Do you honestly believe people are going to come out in hordes to buy your new jerseys? You're invited to join them at the unveiling Thursday. Bring a friend, otherwise you might be there all alone.
Drink up.
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Friday's Frosty Mug
Here are some things to read while waiting for Monday's Mug.
So you may have heard that Ken Macha is the new manager of the Milwaukee Brewers. Reaction from around the web:
- In-Between Hops has some stats showing Macha's tendencies. The Cliff's Notes version: don't expect a lot of base stealing, pinch hitting or sac bunts. I'm ok with most of that. My question, though, is whether those stats are a function of Macha's management style or the environment in which he worked in Oakland.
- Two-Fisted Slopper also uses the numbers to develop an expectation of what's to come.
- The JS Blog has audio from the press conference.
- If you like knowing what was said at press conferences but don't actually like to listen to things, Al also chronicled it for you.
- Ken Rosenthal notes some problems Macha had with his veteran players in Oakland. The Brewers downplay it in this link.
- View From Bernie's Chalet likes the contrast between Macha and Ned Yost.
- The Brew Town Beat likes the move as well, but raises some questions about Macha's relationships and his aversion to small ball.
So now, the next question: what about Mike Maddux? Baseball Musings is reporting that Mike Maddux and Rick Peterson are both considering the jobs in Milwaukee and Texas, and the only question is who ends up where.
We're probably going to hear a bunch of stories like this for a while: "So, now that the Mariners have a GM that used to work for the Brewers, does that mean they'll trade for (Brewer)?" Today's name in the blank is J.J. Hardy. I'm not sure the Mariners could offer anything in return that would be interesting enough for me to be happy about the trade.
Of course, there is still a hole at third base. Beyond the Box Score says Russell Branyan was the 20th best third baseman in 2008, generating 11 runs with his bat and saving 2 in the field. Bill Hall doesn't crack the top 25.
Eric Seidman of FanGraphs has been compiling a list of his favorite highlights from this season. His #1 highlight is CC Sabathia. I think an awful lot of us agree.
Sabathia was not one of the five Brewers who filed for free agency yesterday, on the first day of fifteen when it's allowed. I've always felt like filing that early creates the feeling that you can't wait to run out the door. If you haven't read it yet, the five Brewers who did file yesterday were Eric Gagne, Gabe Kapler, Mike Lamb, Ben Sheets and Brian Shouse. Here are some other players that filed for free agency yesterday:
Angels: Mark Teixiera, Garret Anderson, Jon Garland
Braves: Will Ohman, Greg Norton, Julian Tavarez
Cardinals: Braden Looper, Cesar Izturis, Felipe Lopez, Jason LaRue, Ron Villone, Russ Springer
Dodgers: Manny Ramirez, Joe Beimel, Casey Blake, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux
Marlins: Paul Lo Duca
Mets: Oliver Perez, Damion Easley, Matt Wise
Nationals: Chad Cordero, Ryan Wagner, Pete Orr
Padres: Trevor Hoffman
Reds: Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln
Twins: Eddie Guardado, Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes
UPDATE: Cubs Ryan Dempster, Jim Edmonds, Chad Fox and Bob Howry filed too.
Also, the White Sox declined Ken Griffey's option and the Tigers declined theirs on Edgar Renteria, so they're free agents too.
One trade has already been made: the Royals acquired 1B Mike Jacobs from the Marlins for RP Leo Nunez. Jacobs has above average power but a sub-.300 OBP.
Finally, how many players that can't handle the glove are in the Brewers' farm system? TheJay noted today that Brendan Katin posted a .926 fielding percentage in AAA this season, in the outfield. How is that possible?
Drink up.
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Tuesday's Frosty Mug
It's a pretty slow Tuesday, but here's what I've got:
The Seattle Post Intelligencer is reporting that if Ken Macha doesn't receive the Brewers' job, he may be a candidate in Seattle. The post makes it sound like Macha's already got the job locked up in Milwaukee, though.
In the midst of the rumor that the Brewers will offer $100 million to CC Sabathia, today we actually have a Sabathia Smorgasbord again. Between the Green Pillars cites market size and TV contracts while making the argument that signing Sabathia for that much money is dangerous. The Junkball Blues has a two part series (Part 1, Part 2) attempting to figure out what Sabathia is actually worth.
Via tangotiger, here are the first 2009 defensive projections. Since it's a slow news day, I'll go ahead and save you the time and list the Brewers I'm guessing you care about:
Prince Fielder: -8 runs at 1B
Rickie Weeks: -9 runs at 2B
J.J. Hardy: +1 run at SS
Bill Hall: -3 runs at 2B, -1 run at 3B
Craig Counsell: +10 runs at 2B, +6 runs at 3B, +9 runs at SS
Ryan Braun: +2 runs as a corner OF, -7 in CF
Mike Cameron: +9 runs as a corner OF, +3 in CF
Corey Hart: +2 runs as a corner OF, -9 in CF
I wasn't able to find any projections for catchers. Feel free to follow the link above and look up more for yourself.
Even if Jake Peavy doesn't pitch for the Brewers next season, he could still pitch in the NL Central. Peavy is reportedly willing to approve a trade to the Cubs.
This is how slow of a news day we're in: Former Brewer Luis Vizcaino was arrested for DUI and it made the Mug.
Oh, and this recipe for pasta with spinach and blue cheese is ridiculously easy and better than I expected.
Drink up.
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Wednesday's Frosty Mug
Brewers 7, Pirates 5:
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score
Mets 6, Cubs 2:
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score
Braves 3, Phillies 2:
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score
Tom H. says Prince Fielder is pressure-proof. I'm not quite ready to forget his long homerless drought in August and September, but he is hitting .419/.500/1.000 in the 50 plate appearances since it ended. Also, Pirates broadcaster John Wehner predicted his home run last night.
Looking ahead, CC Sabathia returns to the mound on short rest tonight to attempt to keep the season alive. Baseball Musings thinks the Brewers are hurting Sabathia's future by starting him on short rest again. CBS Sportsline's Scott Miller says starting Sabathia early gives the Brewers their best shot. The Junkball Blues does not appreciate Dale Sveum's bullpen usage or short-rest starts.
But, with Sabathia having been acquired by trading a first round pick, and Fielder, Braun, Weeks and Ben Sheets all having been #1's as well, the Brewers are getting more performance out of their first rounders than all but one team in playoff contention.
There mustn't have been much news to discuss at the Brewers/Timber Rattlers press conference yesterday, because this is the big scoop: Brett Lawrie, the Brewers 2008 first round pick, might play in Appleton next season. Just like every other prospect.
Yovani Gallardo was activated off the DL yesterday. All of a sudden, he's being mentioned as a possibility to start Thursday, even though he hasn't swung a bat or run the bases since May. If he's available to pitch, and McClung and Suppan would be as well, why not start one of them and have Gallardo ready in case they struggle early?
Jim Powell says the Brewers' season may hinge on the fans ability to support them at Miller Park this week. I tend to think the fans' ability to support them at Miller Park this week will hinge on the Brewers ability to play like a winning team. So we have a chicken and the egg problem.
Of course, there could always be worse outcomes: Futility Infielder takes a look at the Mets and Brewers and doesn't think either of them can win.
On injuries:
Pirates OF Brandon Moss has been advised to have season-ending knee surgery. He's seeking a second opinion.
Carlos Silva's season is over after he was scratched from his start Thursday with back problems.
That noise you heard all through the night was rejoicing coming from everywhere but New York: For the first time since 1993, baseball fans will get to enjoy a postseason without the New York Yankees. Columnists will write about other teams. ESPN will send reporters to chronicle every minute of someone else's pre-game meal...or they'll just all cover the Red Sox. Damn, maybe this isn't better after all.
Brewed Sports found a post on a Cubs board suggesting the Cubs should go out of their way this week to keep the Brewers out of the playoffs. The conspiracy level required to pull that off is a little higher than I can believe in.
The Reds recently finished their home season in front of just 2000 fans. I'm not an expert, but I'm going to guess if they had given away tickets to a game next year, as the Brewers will do on Thursday, they would have drawn better.
I've heard it suggested that if you want to work in baseball, the best way to get your foot in the door is to take any open job, anywhere, and work your way up. This job is the exception to that rule.
Drink up.
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Friday's Frosty Mug
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score
Tom H. is calling it the worst defeat of the season. I'm not ready to say it's head-and-shoulders above the Arizona debacle, but it certainly wasn't fun.
So, did the Brewers' playoff hopes end yesterday? Chuckie Hacks, The Brew Town Beat and Two-Fisted Slopper all seem to think so.
This got somewhat lost in everything else, but it's worth noting: The baserunning was awful yesterday. As an example, here are two pictures of J.J. Hardy getting thrown out at bases. But, Sveum blamed the wind.
So what now? Jeff Suppan will start tonight, since McClung was forced into duty in yesterday's game. There are some more hints for the future in this JS roundup, which I'll summarize for you:
- No one knows when/if Sheets can pitch again.
- Yovani Gallardo will throw one more time today, then rejoin the team.
- Gabe Kapler is back with the team but can't slide head first or throw.
- Mat Gamel's elbow pain has been diagnosed as tendinitis.
- Rickie Weeks and Bill Hall will only play against lefties the rest of the way.
- Mike Rivera isn't going to play at all. No reason. Just sitting a guy who's hitting .311/.382/.443 as a catcher but will finish the season with less than 70 plate appearances on a team that's "going for it." Did Mike Rivera kill somebody's pets? I'm honestly flabbergasted by this one.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, CC Sabathia made Baseball Analysts "Getting it Done" pitching staff.
Even after losing two of three in Chicago, the Brewers only need 6 wins in their last 9 games to finish with 90 wins. If they do that, the Astros and Marlins win out and the Phillies and Mets falter a bit, we could still have a five-way tie for the NL wild Card.
On injuries:
A's SP Justin Duchsherer will miss his scheduled start Saturday as he continues to rehab his surgically repaired hip.
Michael Young reinjured his fractured finger last night and could be done for 2008.
Symmetry in action: John Fay notes that the Reds have 4 starting pitchers that have made 25 starts with an ERA below 5.00 for the first time since 1992. That struck me as a really long time, so I looked up the last time the Brewers did it. Also 1992. With luck, they'll break that streak in 2008. Sheets, Parra, Suppan and Bush all have 25 starts, and Suppan is the only one at immediate risk of having his ERA sneak over 5.
Maybe this guy can still pitch? Eduardo Rodriguez was the only Brewer to take advantage of a save rule that allowed a pitcher to get a save without finishing a game, in 1974.
Ned Yost won't be on the Braves staff next year after all. The Braves announced yesterday that their entire coaching staff will return for 2009.
This Mug is already getting kind of long, so I won't reveal any of them here, but there's some good stuff I didn't know in this 25 Fact Baseball Roster.
Oh, and Ryan Howard isn't leading the NL in strikeouts. Who knew?
Drink up.
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Wednesday's Frosty Mug
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
So, if you've been watching the games, you probably realize that Rickie Weeks is hitting .273/.467/.636 in the three games since the Durham trade. This one, however, snuck up on me: Bill Hall is hitting .405/.444/.833 with 4 home runs in his last 12 games. Adam Charles of Bugs & Cranks has a theory to explain it: Magic Skoal.
It's going to take more than chewing tobacco to get him back to the big leagues, but the Brewers signed Jay Gibbons to a minor league deal yesterday, ending his 27-game career with the Long Island Ducks.
After I complained in yesterday's Mug about the Whisnant rankings and suggested their ranking system could use a little work, I got an email from Paul Kuo of Whatifsports.com, who wanted to make sure I had seen their most recent power rankings. On the strength of the Sabathia trade the Brewers skyrocketed up the charts to fourth this week, so obviously the WIS rankings are better.
Also, CBSSports.com ranks the Brewers sixth, and second best in the NL.
TheJay is working to quantify Vulture Wins, and discovered that both Salomon Torres and Brian Shouse are among the league leaders. Reall,y, if you just start checking Recondite Baseball every day, you'll be one step ahead of everyone else when the Mug comes out.
On injuries:
White Sox 3B Joe Crede was scratched from last night's lineup with back stiffness.
Cards OF Chris Duncan has been placed on the DL with a bulging disc in his neck.
Reds SP Josh Fogg needed 30 stitches to repair damage done to his upper lip after being hit by a ball in batting practice.
Certainly, yesterday's most puzzling transaction was the Astros' decision to trade for Randy Wolf. The Astros are 12 games back of the Cubs and BP Postseason Odds gives them a .08% chance at making the playoffs, roughly 1 in 1220. R.J. Anderson of Beyond the Box Score is one of thousands who didn't like the move, but Astros beat writer Brian McTaggart defended it.
In other transactions, the Diamondbacks traded a prospect to the Nationals for Jon Rauch, meaning two of the tallest players in MLB history (along with Randy Johnson) are now on the same roster.
Here's a puzzling decision: Skyking162 has ranked the top 25 position players of right now. Well, really he's ranked the top 23 and given 18 more honorable mentions to get to 41. Here are some names on the list so far:
Evan Longoria, who has yet to finish his first big league season.
Brian Roberts
B.J. Upton
Mark Ellis
Rick Ankiel
Scott Rolen
David DeJesus
Aaron Rowand
Adrian Beltre
Yet somehow, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are nowhere to be found. With the possible exception of Longoria, there's not a single guy on that list who deserves to be ahead of Braun and Fielder. And Mark Ellis? That's a joke.
Francisco Rodriguez is threatening to become the first closer ever to reach 60 saves in a season. 6-4-2 has the math on what it will take for him to get there.
These seem to tie together nicely: In-Between Hops has a list of the greatest living players in the history of 29 franchises. Joe Posnanski takes a look at players who posted more than three "great" seasons in their careers.
If you're looking for a lesson on somewhat advanced statistics, this debate between Tangotiger and Geoff Baker is pretty instructive on the strengths, weaknesses and correct uses of ERA+.
Oh, and here's a hurricane prediction that's as accurate as any you'll see today.
Drink up.
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Watch Gamel in the Futures Game on ESPN2
Brewers Futures Game alumni include Kyle Peterson (1999), Ben Sheets (2000), Nick Neugebauer (2001), Corey Hart (2002), Bill Hall (2002), J.J. Hardy (2003), Dave Krynzel (2003), Prince Fielder (2004), Rickie Weeks (2004), Hernan Iribarren (2005), Nelson Cruz (2005), Ryan Braun (2006), Yovani Gallardo (2006), and Alcides Escobar (2007).
Current or former Brewers who played on in the game prior to joining the organization include Francisco Cordero (Detroit - 1999), Russell Branyan (Cleveland - 1999), Alex Sanchez (Tampa Bay - 1999), Peter Bergeron (Montreal - 1999), Joe Lawrence (Toronto - 1999), Tomo Ohka (Boston - 1999, 2000), Ryan Anderson (Seattle - 1999, 2000), CC Sabathia (Cleveland - 2000), Eric Munson (Detroit - 2000), Mike Rivera (Detroit - 2001), Grant Balfour (Minnesota - 2001), Lyle Overbay (Arizona - 2002), Brett Evert (Atlanta - 2002), Jorge de la Rosa (Boston - 2002, 2003), Chris Narveson (St. Louis - 2003), Jose Capellan (Atlanta - 2004), and Zach Jackson (Toronto - 2005).
Feel free to use this as a game thead, or just to talk about what a studly slugger Gamel is.

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BCB Interviews Stephen Chapman

Stephen Chapman, in addition to being a really cool guy, is perhaps the best left-handed power bat in the system after a certain vegetarian. He's struggling a bit this year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League for Brevard County, but anyone who can post a .277 ISO at Space Coast Stadium, the damp, windswept home park of the Manatees, is doing something right.
BCB: First of all, how do you feel about your season so far?
SC: Not too good. I’m not hitting nearly as well as I’m capable of. I do have some home runs and some triples, but my average is well below where it needs to be. Playing first base is also different, so I’m still getting used to that also. The second half just started, so I need to pick it up for sure.
BCB: Space Coast Stadium is a notoriously bad hitter's park, but you're actually hitting a lot better there. Any particular reason, or just random?
SC: Just random, probably. Our field is rough to hit at for sure. The infield grass is pretty tall, and the wind blows in every day, so you really have to square it up, too. I feel bad for right-handed hitters because the wind blows in from right field also, so they really have it rough.
BCB: Would you say it's the toughest park to hit at in the league?
SC: In all honesty, yes, without a doubt. Every field that I’ve been to so far isn’t nearly as bad as Space Coast. The Tigers’ stadium in Lakeland is a big field, 420 in center and 340 down the lines, but the wind blows out slightly, and it has a nice playing surface so a hit is a hit--the wind wont knock it down and the infield grass won’t eat it up. But without a doubt, our field is the hardest to hit in.
BCB: You've improved your plate discipline this year, walking more often overall and improving your strikeout-to-walk ratio; is that something you’re consciously working on?
SC: Yeah, it’s something I try to work on. I’m still striking out this year, which needs to improve a lot, but the good side is that I’ve been walking more. There are only so many things you can do to improve your walk-to-strikeout ratio, but I’m trying. I just can’t miss my pitch and chase stuff in the dirt; if I do that, I’ll be all right.
BCB: When you were drafted, you had the rep of a guy who could handle any fastball but was still learning to recognize off-speed stuff; is the off-speed stuff what you're struggling with this year, or are you just slumping in general?
SC: I’m just slumping in general. I’m getting myself out a lot. The pitchers aren’t getting me out; I’m getting myself out. Not to say the pitchers here are not good, ‘cause they are, I’m not taking anything away from them, but my swing has just not been right this year. I played in the Hawaii Winter League with High-A and AA pitching, and I hit .294, so I can hit this level pitching; I just need to find my groove. I’ve just been a little off all year, just a little out in front, or a little behind, or I pulled my shoulder out just a little, or this or that. I need to have a little more luck, also. I was talking to Taylor Green about luck the other day, and I honestly have had one cheap base hit all season. Hopefully, [in] the second half I find my groove and things start falling my way a little more.
BCB: Do you see yourself as a .300 hitter? Is that the benchmark you set for yourself, the goal?
SC: I would love to be a .300 hitter, but honestly, no, I’m not. Now, I can hit .300 for sure, but I’m more of a .270 to .290, doubles/triples hitter. My goal this year was to hit .275, and I know that doesn’t seem like a lot, but with our stadium and this league, it’s not too bad. I set realistic goals for myself every year so that I push myself but have an actual shot of reaching them. It serves you no purpose to say you want to hit .375, ‘cause chances are you won’t.
BCB: Just to throw another lefty power hitter out there, would you be happy with Adam Dunn's numbers? That is to say, low average but high production otherwise?
SC: Heck yeah! I don’t know a lot about Dunn, but his name has been in the news a lot lately, so I’ve heard a few numbers thrown around. What is he, a lifetime .240 hitter with 35 homeruns a year? Something like that. He’s been in the league nearly 10 years or something. If those numbers get me 10 years in the League, I would be happiest .240 hitter in the world. (laughs)
BCB: Hello pension!
SC: Exactly, and he’s not making minimum salary either. My friend is David Ross, the catcher for the Reds, and he told me Adam is a great guy, so I won’t know what all this stuff in the news is about.
BCB: That’s cool that you know David Ross. You mean the stuff about the Blue Jays' GM talking shit about Dunn?
SC: Yeah, about Dunn not loving the game and this and that--it’s a bunch of BS. But yeah, David Ross and I live in Tallahassee and train together in the off season. He’s a great guy as well.
BCB: Did you meet him through training or did you know him before?
SC: I met him through training. We’ve been training together for about three years now. We both train at Titus sports Academy in Tallahassee, Florida.
BCB: Do you know any of the Brewers' big leaguers?
SC: Yeah, a lot of them. I mean, I don’t call them or anything, but I do know them. I got in some big league games this spring training and got to hang out with them a few times. I played with [Ryan] Braun in Helena, so that was pretty cool. Prince Fielder, Billy Hall, Mike Cameron--all those guys are hilarious in the clubhouse.
BCB: Being from near Tallahassee, I'm going to guess you grew up a Braves fan.
SC: I was actually born in Washington, D.C. and my family is all in Virginia and Maryland, so I’m an Orioles fan.
BCB: Oh cool, the Brewers are playing the Orioles right now. Have you been watching the series?
SC: (laughs) Nope, the life of a minor leaguer--we don’t have cable at the house. Gas is expensive, man.
BCB: If our blog ever makes money, we'll run a contest every month where we raffle off something and use the money to buy one minor leaguer cable. Or we could run an Adopt-a-Manatee program.
SC: (laughs) I’m sure that would be greatly appreciated. Adopt-a-Manatee would work, also (laughs).
BCB: So, you mentioned Taylor Green earlier. He came out of nowhere last year; what’s the secret to his success?
SC: He’s just a good player. He had a bad first year in Helena, so nobody really though much of him, and everyone thinks that he was a surprise, but he’s always been a great player. It just happens that his first year wasn’t that good.
BCB: Jonathan Lucroy just got called up to Brevard. He looks like a really good ballplayer too.
SC: Yeah, he’s good also. I don’t know much about catching, but I think he’s good behind the plate. He calls a good game back there. You don’t see a lot of three hole-hitting catchers, either. He can really hit.
BCB: Who would you say is the most likely guy on the team to make the majors?
SC: Tough question. Most likely would be Taylor Green. The guys who I think will make it for sure are Taylor Green, Lorenzo Cain, Darren Ford, and Jeremy Jeffress.
BCB: And Lucroy?
SC: Yeah, sorry, Lucroy also, forgot him. Chances are that all the guys won’t play for the Brewers at the same time, but I think someone with want them in the big leagues.
BCB: I was going to ask you about Darren Ford. He seems like he has a lot going for him: some pop, some patience, fastest guy in the system, but he's struggled at Brevard two years in a row. You think he's got Major League skills though?
SC: Yeah, for sure. He can run anything down, he can steal off anyone, he does have some pop, and he is learning how to bunt this year. When he puts it all together, he is amazing. He is the fastest player in our organization, like you said, but I would put money down that he is [one of the] top-five fastest players in pro baseball.
BCB: Have you seen the kid at West Virginia, Lee Haydel, run? He's supposedly the only guy that can compete with Ford [in the system].
SC: (laughs) He’s a nice guy, and nothing against him, but he can’t keep up with Darren. I’m pretty fast, and I raced Darren two days ago about 40 yards, and he gave me a 10-foot head start and beat me by four steps. It’s crazy--he doesn’t run, he floats.
BCB: Tell me about watching Jeffress pitch—is his stuff as good as they say it is?
SC: Yeah, it’s good--really good. Mid-90's fastball with a really good changeup. The only time he gets in trouble is when he leaves his fastball up in the zone, but that doesn’t happen too often.
BCB: How's his breaking stuff?
SC: Good. I don’t know a lot about pitching, but I’ve seem him make numerous hitters look stupid up there. An 87 mile-per-hour slider is unfair.
BCB: He's had a couple starts this year where he dominated but then fell apart completely in one inning. What's going on in those?
SC: Leaving the ball up in the zone sometimes, trying to over-throw sometimes.
BCB: How about Zach Braddock? He's posted numbers almost as good as Jeffress', but doesn't have the same stuff.
SC: Zach has a good fastball, about 90, and he challenges hitters, which is awesome, but he gets in trouble sometimes. I like when Zach pitches--he goes after hitters. He doesn’t nibble and BS; he gives you what he’s got and if you hit it, you hit it.
BCB: How does he get in trouble sometimes?
SC: Getting too fired up and over-throwing. He gets too pumped up on the mound; he tried to do too much at times.
BCB: Back to you: tell me a little about learning to play first base. Did you ever play it before?
SC: I played it my freshman year in high school, just because they didn’t have one on varsity, and I was hitting so good at the time, but other than that, I’ve been an outfielder. First base is different, though. I have to say, I like the outfield better.
BCB: Has the team moved you to first just because of the crowded outfield position [in the system], or do they want you there long-term?
SC: Your guess is as good as mine. I hope it’s just because we don’t have anyone there right now in Brevard. I enjoy outfield better and am 100 times better there, but if I can get to the big leagues quicker by playing first base, I’m more than happy to play first.
BCB: It seems like the Brewers have a million outfielders: Cameron might be gone next year, but then you have Matt LaPorta, and then there’s Cole Gillespie and Michael Brantley at AA, plus Lorenzo Cain, you, and Darren Ford. And Mat Gamel might end up out there too.
SC: I know, it’s ridiculous.
BCB: What did you think of Gamel's defense in the Hawaii Winter League?
SC: Good, he improved his defense a ton this winter. He can just flat-out play.
BCB: Considering all the outfielders, maybe you should convert to catcher.
SC: I don’t think I’ll make it too far as a left-handed catcher, but hey, you never know.
BCB: So, who are your good buddies on the team and in the organization?
SC: Shoot, there are too many to list. Gamel, Brantley, Ford, Green, [Mike] Bell, [Kenny] Holmberg, [Brent] Brewer, [Omar] Aguilar. LaPorta. Me and [Chris] Errecart are good friends also.
BCB: Tell some of those other guys to do interviews with me!
SC: (laughs) I’ll let them know.
BCB: Well, that's about all I've got for you. Anything else you want Brewers fans to know?
SC: That’s about it. Hopefully I’ll get to meet them soon.
BCB: Good luck the rest of the season.
SC: Thank you.
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Thursday's Plastic Cup
Last night's game was fun. I liked this, and I also liked this.
Yesterday was better for the NL--the senior circuit won 6 of 14 interleague matchups. For the second day in a row, though, the Brewers were the only Central team to win. That moves us 3 back of the Cards and 6.5 back of the Cubs.
Speaking of the Cubs, you may have heard that Carlos Zambrano left with some kind of injury last night. Jim Edmonds left too. No word yet on what's going on with Z, but we do know he's getting an MRI.
David Riske will rejoin the team for the finale today. He was in Milwaukee yesterday, but having pitched an inning in Nashville on Tuesday, the club decided not to activate him until today.
I haven't seen any hints about who will go to make room, but I looked up the Brewers relief stats for the last 14 days. DiFelice has thrown the most innings out of the pen, with a 2.70 ERA and a 8/0 K/BB ratio. Dillard has thrown the fewest (2 innings). Julian Tavarez has a 13.50 ERA in 4 frames in that stretch. Not that we need an extra arm, but as I said yesterday, I wouldn't be surprised if Iribarren goes back down and we end up with 13 pitchers.
Russell Branyan is very good against righties. Bill Hall is very good against lefties. Neither of them is very good against same-side pitchers. Please remember this if you are at a game and are tempted to boo when Hall pinch-hits for Branyan with a lefty on the mound and no one warming in the bullpen.
Battlekow fanshotted it, but I figured it deserved a spot in the Cup as well: This summer, you'll be drinking Robinade Old School Lemonade. So this is why Robin Yount didn't want to be on the coaching staff anymore.
Richie Sexson has been a disaster for the Mariners, but I didn't think it would come to this: The Mariners may just release him. That would be the most serious condemnation of Bavasi's tenure--I don't have time to track down a link, but I believe that either Will Carroll or Ken Rosenthal reported last July that someone claimed Sexson off of waivers, meaning that the Mariners could have just dumped his contract for nothing. Speaking of Bavasi, it's worth a few minutes to listen to Dan Szymborski's audio tribute.
Finally, here's the last installment of Geoff Young's interview with Sandy Alderson.
Day game today, so see you back here around 1 CT.
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