Thursday's Frosty Mug
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
Now, this morning's big news: According to the JS blog, the Brewers are about to announce they've signed Ryan Braun to the longest and largest contract in team history. It's mostly speculation at this point, but a news conference is scheduled for 10 am to make it official.
It turns out David Riske hyperextended his elbow in last night's game. He's day-to-day.
Greener on the Other Side has crunched the numbers and thinks Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks' stats will improve in the coming weeks.
On injuries:
Red Sox P Clay Buchholz is headed to the DL with a broken nail. Seriously.
Pirates C Ryan Doumit has been placed on the DL with a broken thumb.
Mets P Scott Schoeneweis spent the overnight hours Wednesday in the hospital with what turned out to be the flu.
Cubs PH/OF Daryle Ward may have a herniated disc in his back.
The baseball community as a whole is still trying to figure out exactly what happened to Andruw Jones, but Sons of Steve Garvey has uncovered a restraining order that may have something to do with it.
Yadier Molina will not be suspended for his tirade and his decision to strip out of his catcher's gear and leave it littered all over the field over the weekend. That's an interesting precedent for MLB to set.
Oh, and The Ultimate Warrior has a Twitter account.
That's all for today. Drink up.
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Monday's Frosty Mug
Sunday's Win Expectancy Graph
Sunday's BR Box Score
Sunday's BDD Recaps
Saturday's Win Expectancy Graph
Saturday's BR Box Score
Saturday's BDD Recaps
Today, apparently, is a big day. So big I used two unnecessary commas in my opening sentence. It's a big day because Doug Melvin and Ned Yost are meeting to "discuss the Milwaukee Brewers' personnel and what might be done to improve the club."
Scott over at In-Between Hops seems to think making Prince eat a steak will improve the club.
Al notes that the team hasn't announced a starter yet for Thursday. Perhaps that will be addressed in the meeting.
Yovani Gallardo will have surgery tomorrow morning to repair his torn ACL. Hopefully the extended delay in surgery won't keep him from being ready for spring training in 2009.
Apparently commenters are watching to ensure I use the proper level of snark when posting power rankings. I hope they'll find today's snark appropriate. Or they'll find something better to do than burn half a day commenting on how I addressed Phil Rogers.
Phil Rogers is widely seen as a subpar baseball writer. He has the Brewers 21st in his most recent power rankings.
The Southpaw improves on those rankings in two ways. First, they moved the Brewers up to 18th. Second, they included a picture of Summer Glau. Who is Summer Glau? I have no idea.
On injuries:
Blue Jays reliever Jeremy Accardo has been placed on the DL with a strained forearm.
Mets 2B Luis Castillo left yesterday's game with "quad discomfort."
Chone Figgins is on the DL in Anaheim with a strained hamstring.
Kevin Millwood had to leave his start over the weekend after just two outs, and has been placed on the DL with a groin strain.
Vernon Wells has a broken non-throwing wrist and will miss 6-8 weeks.
A news flash from Chicago: Apparently the ladies love "some asian guy."
In other Cubs news, it looks like Ryne Sandberg is getting pretty good at getting ejected from games. He's been suspended from Midwest League action following a confrontation with an opposing manager Thursday.
I'm really easily distracted some days: I got up early to write the Mug this morning, but lost all the time I gained when I spent half an hour on Keith Law's list of ten home cooking mistakes.
Oh, and the Mets have DFA'd Raul Casanova.
Drink up.
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Friday's Frosty Mug
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
Notable by their absence yesterday: Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and Jason Kendall. Apparently it was just a scheduled off day for almost half the starting position players, though.
The Yost Infection says it's time for a managerial change, even though most of this team's problems aren't Ned's fault. The time for a change was September of last year. The story now is that it hasn't happened yet.
Speaking of looming decisions, Derrick Turnbow will clear waivers soon. Looks like he's headed to Nashville.
On a positive note, Beyond the Box Score compares Matt LaPorta to Ryan Braun.
The Cub Reporter ranks Ben Sheets 4th among NL Central aces. He wants your vote to help rank them.
Or, if watching the Brewers is too much for you to handle sober, try out this drinking game. By the fifth or so, people will be stacking cups on your head.
On injuries:
Padres reliever Kevin Cameron is on the DL with an elbow strain.
Doug Davis is free of cancer. Sighs of relief all around.
Johnny Estrada is back on the DL with an inflamed nerve in his elbow.
Orlando Hernandez is no longer in a walking boot. He's one step closer to throwing the banana.
Dodgers P Esteban Loaiza is on the DL with spasms in his shoulder.
Nats C Paul Lo Duca has a broken hand and has been DL'ed.
Twins reliever Pat Neshek will have his elbow examined today after leaving last night's game.
Mets OF Angel Pagan is day-to-day with a bruised shoulder.
Braves P Brayan Pena is on the DL with a back strain.
Twins IF Nick Punto was scratched from last night's game with tightness in his hamstring.
Despite the hubbub about the Brewers only going as far as Prince Fielder will carry them, Recondite baseball notes that no Brewers make the list of top or bottom 20 in win-loss splits.
The Marlins are hot, but there's still plenty of great seats available at their games.
Reds Insider notes that new GM Walt Jocketty will get to rework his team in a hurry - the Reds will have 13 free agents after the season.
Here's video of Richie Sexson charging the mound last night. Two notes:
1) That pitch wasn't that close.
2) Richie, you're 6'6", did you really need to throw the helmet at the guy?
That's all for today. Drink up.
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Tuesday's Frosty Mug
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 84.1 wins and a 20.2% shot at winning the NL Central.
With Ben Sheets returning to the mound and Mike Cameron making his Brewer debut, in Chicago against the Cubs, Tom H. wants to make sure you know today is kind of a big deal.
Thanks to reader Michael M who pointed out that The New York Times did a story on Prince's new eating habits. It's a New York Times story, so it displays all Wisconsinites as raw meat eating savages, but aside from that it's a good read.
The JS Blog notes that Prince hits more than his share of home runs at Wrigley, so this could be a good week for him.
Is Prince the best first baseman in the NL Central? The Cub Reporter wants to know. They're also asking about second basemen.
On injuries:
Hank Blalock has a torn hamstring and is out 3-4 weeks.
Troy Glaus is trying out some clear sunglasses to help him see the ball at night in St. Louis.
Alex Rodriguez has reinjured his quad and is out of the lineup for at least a few more days.
Grady Sizemore has been out since Saturday with a sprained ankle.
John Smoltz will miss his next start and may have to go on the DL with shoulder trouble.
Dusty Baker is drawn to grittiness, but apparently every now and then he incorrectly hears it: He reportedly thought Ryan Freel told him he didn't want to play everyday. That's like saying no to ice cream. Who does that?
As noted below in the minor league report, Nashville lost again last night to drop to 5-18. How long do we give them before we start worrying about the fact that our top minor league affiliate is terrible?
Baseball Happenings has posted the results from this week's Blogpoll for NL MVP. Chase Utley won overwhelmingly, as he probably should.
Baseball Musings asks if the Reds wasted money on Francisco Cordero. He's 4-for-4 in save opportunities, but the Reds have only managed to get him 4 opportunities in 25 games. Speaking of wasted money, the Giants are sending Barry Zito to the bullpen.
Carlos Quentin of the White Sox has been hit by a pitch with the bases loaded 3 times in April. That ties the MLB single season record.
Some days the stars align and everyone's talking about the same thing: Scott Adams, of Dilbert fame, attended a game over the weekend and didn't enjoy the experience. Stephen Dubner, the author of Freakonomics, blogged yesterday about ways to make the game more interesting. Sabernomics picked up on that and added a few suggestions of their own, including one that should've been adopted years ago: eliminate arguing. Confrontational umpires are one of my biggest pet peeves in baseball, so I'd welcome some kind of movement to remind them that no one paid to see them yell back at a manager/player. Baseball is the only sport I'm aware of that tolerates it.
I don't typically read Cardboard Gods, but I'm glad I followed a link there yesterday to catch this post, which is as profound as anything I've read in a long time.
That's all for today. Drink up.
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Sunday's Plastic Cup Can Nail One Down
I missed most of last night's game, but when I got home, I liked what I saw. Another clutch bomb from Prince (against a lefty, no less), some stylish defense from Ryan Braun, and an inning without pain courtesy of Eric Gagne. The Cubs are in Washington playing the NL East team that actually does suck, so we're still two games back.
The regulars:
- FanGraphs Win Probability chart
- BR Box Score
- BDD Daily Recap
- BP Postseason Odds: 84.7 wins and 22% chance of the division.
Before we get to some articles, I'd like to present to you a photo essay in four clicks that is guaranteed to put a smile on your face:
The Junkball Blues looks at the efficiency of our starting pitching --that is, how many innings are they getting out of the pitches they throw? The conclusions aren't surprising, but the degree to which Parra is working for his number of frames might be.
Ben Sheets threw yesterday and said, "It felt good." I would've given this top billing, but you all know as well as I do how little Sheets updates can mean sometimes.
At The Book Blog, MGL tries to rate pitching coaches. I had considered doing something very similar to this, so I'm glad he did. As he acknowledges, it's a very difficult effect to nail down, but as it turns out, Mike Maddux appears to have been a positive influence--though not overwhelmingly so--over the last five years.
Some injuries:
- Scott Baker left his start last night with a groin strain , leaving the Twins wondering if they'll have any starting pitching left by June, and dejectedly realizing that the Rangers have Sidney Ponson this year.
- Kevin Correia got all of one out before leaving with a back injury. Ouch.
- Kerwin Danley got hit. Hard. (Link has video.)
In former Brewers news, it's a big day to be a part of the old Brewers-Braves trade. Dan Kolb (yes, that Dan Kolb) was released by the Red Sox, and Jose Capellan (yes, that Jose Capellan) was promoted by the Rockies.
Speaking of the Rockies, somebody had to go to make room for Capellan, and that someone was...Jayson Nix . Doug: Gyt oyn thy phoyne, immydyatly!
The Pirates are bad. Charlie at Bucs Dugout sums it all up in one brilliant post.
I'm guessing most of you haven't heard of Danny Ray Herrera, but he's a great story. He was part of the Josh Hamilton trade in the offseason, and he just made a successful debut in Triple-A. For the whole Herrera tale, from being a too-short-for-the-scouts college pitcher to a surprise success in A ball, click here. (It's a great article.)
That's it for today...at least for the next two hours, until game time.
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Thursday's Frosty Mug
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason odds: 85.5 wins and 21.7% chance of winning the Central.
A side note from the BP Odds: 21 games into the season, the D-Backs are already being given a 67% chance of winning the NL West, which was supposed to be one of baseball's tightest divisional races.
Jim Powell's blog may be the best place to start today. He talks about Fielder, Turnbow, Gabe Gross and Geoff Jenkins.
Tom H. notes that one year ago, April 23 of 2007, Derrick Turnbow also saved a game where Prince hit two home runs. Considering Turnbow hadn't saved a game since, I thought it was an interesting coincidence.
Can great Brewer moments influence history? Bugs and Cranks seems to think so.
The Hardball Times looks at the future of Yovani Gallardo.
ESPN the Magazine ranked the Brewers fourth in all of MLB in Fan Satisfaction Rankings. Just think where they'd rank if there were more toilets outside.
Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:
Rangers P Kason Gabbard has been DL'ed with a sore lower back.
Reds OF Norris Hopper was placed on the DL with "elbow inflammation."
Daisuke Matsuzaka missed last night's scheduled start with the flu.
Mariners P Carlos Silva left last night's game with a thigh injury. It doesn't appear to be serious.
If you missed it yesterday, or you read the site via RSS so you don't see Fanshots at all, the Reds fired GM Wayne Krivsky yesterday and replaced him with Walt Jocketty. It seems awfully early to be making big changes.
The Cubs picked up their 10,000th win last night. As Dave Pinto notes at Baseball Musings, that's about 75 wins/season since 1876.
Elsewhere in the Central, Fungoes decries the folly of having 13 pitchers on the Cardinals roster, but fails to mention that the Brewers had 14 pitchers during the same series.
Ah, the wonders of a Youtube era. Now, you too can bring your camera to the ballpark and shoot crappy, incoherent video of a Mets reliever responding to the drunken masses during warmups. If you're bored today, take a moment to look at some of the shooter's other "work" and feel better about your life.
Credibility fades fast when you do things like this: Last night, reports came out that Frank Thomas had signed with the A's. But he hasn't yet.
The circle of life continues: Gabe Gross was the odd man out in Milwaukee so he was traded to Tampa, causing Dan Johnson to be the odd man out for the second time in April.
Beyond the Box Score takes a great look at ball and strike calls and how they vary based on several demographic issues. An interesting confirmation of what we've suspected all along: veterans get calls.
True Blue LA takes a look at the world around him and reaches an interesting conclusion: Sabermetrics and stat work have become so commonplace that having a stat guy on hand no longer gives teams an advantage. He says Sabermetrics are dead, but that's like saying the internet is dead because everyone uses it.
Baseball Musings passes along a great list of hitting tips to distribute by age.
The Mariners are encouraging fans to bring their Nintendo DS to the game to chat with other fans, look at stats and order food and drinks from their seats. I have a DS, and if I could bring it to the game and do that, I'd absolutely bring it along.
We're only a couple of days in, but turnout so far has been underwhelming for this week's Fan Opinion Poll. If you haven't voted yet, please do so. Also, thanks to Dan Walsh at The Daily Drink for his help promoting it.
That's all for today. If you'd like to submit a link for inclusion in tomorrow's Mug, drop it in the comments. Drink up.
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Monday's Frosty Mug
Happy Patriot Day, Brewer fans. I've been away from the TV, radio and computer for most of the last 3 days, but coming home today I see that the Brewers took two of three and should've swept the Reds, and open today's series with the Cardinals a game back of first place. It's time for a Frosty Mug.
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
ESPN Video Highlights
Baseball Digest Daily recaps
BP Postseason odds projecting the Brewers for 84 wins and a 23.6% shot at winning the Central.
Let's talk about Ben Sheets for a moment. The team says Sheets will only have to push his next start back a day. That doesn't seem serious, but at the same time, they've gone up to 14 pitchers on the roster just to make sure they have enough to cover the delay. Jim Powell also says Sheets is feeling better. I'm not entirely sure how keeping a guy like Mitch Stetter on the roster would fix the problem, even if he wasn't.
Inside the Book asks if teams overvalue guys with great stuff but questionable control. Since we seem to be having occasional debates lately about the value of Derrick Turnbow, I thought this belonged in the top half of the Mug.
Brian Shouse's streak of 83 consecutive appearances without allowing a home run was the 14th longest all time.
If you thought everyone loved Paul Molitor, it turns out it's only almost everyone.
Thanks to all 142 of you who voted in last week's fan opinion poll. The results:
- 74% of voters thought Dave Bush should move to the bullpen in place of Seth McClung when Gallardo returned.
- 45% of voters thought Eric Gagne's position as closer should be re-evaluated at the end of April. 32% thought he should be re-evaluated at the All Star Break and 21% think he's the closer indefinitely.
- 82% of voters thought Prince Fielder's slow start had nothing to do with becoming a vegetarian.
- 66% of voters thought the Brewers should make an effort to limit Manny Parra's innings.
- Of those voters, 68% thought it should be done by skipping his spot in the rotation when possible.
- Ned Yost's approval rating is at 78%, up from 77% last week, with 8% disapproval and 12% unsure.
- Doug Melvin's approval rating is at 97%, with one lone no vote and 2% unsure. Last week he was at 91%/5%/2%
- 96% of voters were in favor of the Cameron/Hall/Braun move.
- 61% of voters were in favor of the Gagne signing, with 17% opposed and 21% unsure.
- 35% of voters thought the team should offer Ben Sheets a long-term deal, with 29% wanting to wait until after the season, 19% opposed and 16% unsure.
Full results here. I'm hoping to write this week's poll today and post it later or tomorrow. If you have questions you'd like to see included, drop them in the comments.
Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:
Doug Davis is recovering well from surgery and throwing off flat ground. He could return in May.
Kosuke Fukudome missed last night's game with a cyst above his right eye, but should play today.
Chipper Jones was pulled from yesterday's game with a quad injury.
Alex Rodriguez was also pulled from yesterday's game with a quad injury.
Jimmy Rollins has been placed on the DL, but since he pinch-hit Saturday, he's not eligible to be placed retroactively.
David Weathers has been placed on the DL with nerve inflammation in his elbow.
Frank Thomas was released rather abruptly yesterday. Obviously, this will lead to lots of speculation about who he could help, but Landon Evanson at Bugs and Cranks likes him as a Twin.
This would be a much better reason to be cursed: Historical evidence suggests the Cubs may have thrown the 1918 World Series.
Now available: Hideo Nomo. Potentially available May 1: Bartolo Colon.
Bucs Dugout's tournament to determine the worst GM in baseball has moved on to the second round. Voting is open for the first matchup, Jon Daniels v. Bill Bavasi.
And while you're voting, go here as well and help me fill out my AL awards ballots. Thanks!
Drink up.
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Friday's Frosty Mug
So, as Jeff mentioned in yesterday's Plastic Cup, I was on the road yesterday. A brief anecdote from the road:
The fiancee and I were traveling together yesterday, and my last item of business was finished a couple of hours before hers. So there I was, in the back of a coffee shop, headphones in, listening to the Brewers, waiting for the call that would say "it's time to go." I tuned in around the time Manny Parra was exiting. I spent about 4 innings wishing she would hurry up and call, as the game was...well, less than encouraging. But I was there when Prince's double tied it in the 8th, and I was trying hard not to make a scene when Ryan Braun singled to lead off the 10th...
And the phone rang. "Ok, I'm ready for you to pick me up." I reluctantly packed my things, walked to the parking garage, and by the time XM Radio could pick up reception, it was 5-3 in the bottom of the 10th. Not only did I miss Prince's first home run, I didn't even know that's how they scored until the post-game show. Hopefully I'll catch about 50 more of them this season to even it out.
Win Expectancy Graph
Baseball Reference Box Score
ESPN Video Highlights
Baseball Digest Daily Recaps
With the win, Baseball Prospectus' Postseason Odds have the Brewers winning exactly 81 games, with a 16.2% chance of winning the Central.
All kinds of stuff about Prince following the game:
Tom H. has Fielder's postgame quotes.
Home Run Derby named it Home Run of the Day.
In-Between Hops notes the Fielder is even with his home run pace from last year, but would need to hit 4 in his next 5 games to keep it up.
Baseball Musings notes that, before the HR, 7 of Prince's 13 hits had come with runners in scoring position.
Yahoo has a photo of Prince rounding the bases.
Also, if you're looking for quotes from the Cardinals regarding yesterday's game, Fungoes has a wealth of them.
Bugs and Cranks has a nice review of the situation at the back end of the rotation, with Bush, Villanueva and Parra holding spots and Gallardo looking for one.
Speaking of Villanueva, John Sickels has an in depth look at him.
He's had one at bat in the last three days, but Ken Rosenthal still can't get enough Gabe Kapler.
Forbes has released their annual valuations of all 30 MLB teams. The Brewers rank 24th.
Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:
Erik Bedard may have torn cartilage in his hip. I'm not sure what that means for his return.
Carlos Beltran missed last night's 14-inning marathon with a stiff neck.
Rangers OF Marlon Byrd has been placed on the DL with a sore knee.
Braves reliever Peter Moylan is out for the season with a bone spur pressing against the UCL in his elbow.
Rays reliever Al Reyes is on the DL with an impinged shoulder.
Richie Sexson will miss a game or two with nagging shoulder and leg pain.
Miguel Tejada isn't hurt, but he sure is aging fast.
Speaking of things that'll make you age fast, the Rockies and Padres played 22 innings last night. Even Fangraphs gave up after 17.
Two stories out there today showing Cub fans in a (well deserved?) negative light: First, via Redleg Nation, I found this clip of Marty Brennaman's reaction to Cub fans throwing dozens of balls on the field following a home run. Also, Fukudome's reaction to a racist t-shirt being sold by vendors outside Wrigley is a must read. I know a lot of very bright, intelligent Cubs fans that are a credit to their franchise...it's just unfortunate they seem to be in the minority.
Bucs Dugout continues their search for baseball's worst GM. Polls are open right now for Omar Minaya v. Jim Hendry and Ken Williams v. Wayne Krivsky.
Gaslamp Ball wants to hear about your favorite baseball books.
Finally, in response to a question asked in the game thread a couple of nights ago, TheJay has compiled a list of the last players to wear #42 for every franchise. Scott Karl was the last Brewer, and also the last Rockie. Interestingly enough, Mo Vaughn was the last player to wear #42 for three teams.
That's all for today. I'm back on the road in a few hours, so Jeff will be filling in again tomorrow and Sunday. If you have something to submit for inclusion in a future Mug, please post it in the comments. Drink up.
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Tuesday's Frosty Mug
Good morning, Brewer fans. Most of the NL had an off day yesterday, so the Brewers wake up again in second place by themselves, but in a good position to do something about it: They open up a series with the first place Cardinals tonight. It's time for a Frosty Mug.
With the off day, there's no Win Expectancy Graph or ESPN Video highlights to show you, but here are Baseball Digest Daily's recaps from yesterday.
Also, I have a new addition to the daily reads, Baseball Prospectus postseason odds. Today, they project the Brewers to win 82.1 games and give them a 17% shot of winning the NL Central.
Now, today's big news: Tom H. is reporting the Brewers may have signed Jeff Weaver. Tom thinks they'll likely send him to extended spring training and then AAA, but notes that Weaver is a Boras client, so it seems unlikely he cut a deal without some promise for a big league opportunity. It's probably still too early to speculate.
Ben Sheets won this week's Baseball Happenings Blogpoll for NL Cy Young. Albert Pujols won the vote for MVP, and Kosuke Fukudome won Rookie of the Year. Click the previous link for full voting results, and click here to see the BCB ballot.
The Junkball Blues is doing a nice job tracking an interesting stat, and so far it's paying dividends: The Brewers see an average of 3.91 pitches per plate appearance in their 8 wins, and only 3.61 in their 4 losses.
Bucs Dugout is starting some kind of tournament to crown the worst GM in baseball. Our very own Doug Melvin is one of the 14 GM's who won't make the field.
Brad Bortone at Bugs and Cranks is comparing Prince's new eating habits to the sudden change in Sid Fernandez's eating habits in 1985, which took 8-10 mph off his fastball. I disagree with the point, but it's an interesting one.
The Southpaw, a Jays blog, has the Brewers #5, the best in the NL Central, in their latest power rankings.
There's only three injury reports today, so I'll just put them in one paragraph: Reds SS Alex Gonzalez is not seeing improvement in the compression fracture in his knee and still won't be able to run for at least 2-4 more weeks. Pedro Martinez's rehab is going slower than expected and will keep him out well into May, maybe into June. Mariners OF Mike Morse has been moved onto the DL with a dislocated shoulder, opening the door for the big league return of R.A. Dickey.
Fish Chunks takes a look at some of the surprising numbers surrounding the 2008 Marlins, who lead the NL in home runs but are being outscored by seven NL teams. They have several more stats about homer-centric baseball that should sound familiar to fans of the 2007 Brewers.
This one doesn't appear to be paid, but No Bias Baseball is looking to add writers.
24 hours in, we've already got 96 votes in this week's Fan Opinion Poll. If you haven't cast your ballot yet, take a moment to do so. Thanks to everyone who's helped promote it, including Al's Ramblings.
Over the weekend I missed a comment asking how to submit links for inclusion in the Mug. The easiest way to grab my attention is to post links in the comments of the previous day's Mug, which I usually check right before I start writing. I'll start making a more conscious effort to re-post the best links I find that way.
That's all for today. Drink up.
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Game Thread #12: Brewers (7-4) at Mets (5-5)
It's the rubber game at Shea, with Jeff Suppan taking on Oliver Perez. The action starts at 12:10 CT.
As KLSnow mentioned in the Mug this morning, it'll be interesting to see the lineups, as Braun and Fielder requested a switch. For what it's worth, swapping them (against a lefty, anyway), is a very, very slight negative according to the lineup analysis algorithm, but of course the algorithm doesn't know anything about how comfortable the #3 and #4 hitters are.
And anyway, for as long as Cameron is out, Yost seems likely to hit a lefty second when a right-hander is on the mound, so moving Fielder back to cleanup splits up the two lefties in the lineup. Seems like an innocuous move all around, especially when Bill Hall is knocking it out of the park every other time he makes contact.
Platoon-ified Project-A-Tron says:
- Brewers 4.5
- Mets 4.4
- Brewers WinExp: 48%
(Yes, I know that makes no sense. Basically, most of the home-field advantage in baseball comes from the strategic edge of batting last. If the runs scored are projected to be so close, many possible outcomes will result in a tie game late, including those that go to extra innings. So basically, the predicted score makes it a 50-50 shot, and the home field advantage gives the edge to the Mets.)
Go Brewers!
UPDATE: Tom H has the lineups, and the request has been granted.
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