Sal Baxamusa at the Hardball Times recently published a very useful tool: downloadable Excel spreadsheets that produce Marcel projections for players. Marcels are basically weighted averages and are surprisingly competitive with advanced projection systems like PECOTA or ZiPS. For our purposes--predicting the most likely immediate future performance to evaluate, for instance, whether we should get a new second baseman--Marcel will do just fine. So, let's see what we've got:

Jason Kendall

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.258	.339	.333
Balance	.259	.330	.329
Total	.258	.334	.331

Prince Fielder

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.270	.357	.488
Balance	.282	.374	.531
Total	.275	.364	.507

Rickie Weeks

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.217	.320	.367
Balance	.247	.357	.409
Total	.231	.335	.386

Bill Hall

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.234	.294	.431
Balance	.260	.326	.465
Total	.246	.308	.446

Russell Branyan

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.245	.331	.604
Balance	.236	.332	.469
Total	.239	.332	.515

J.J. Hardy

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.283	.352	.476
Balance	.273	.335	.448
Total	.279	.343	.463

Ryan Braun

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.286	.324	.549
Balance	.303	.354	.567
Total	.293	.337	.556

Mike Cameron

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.231	.320	.481
Balance	.246	.329	.443
Total	.240	.325	.461

Gabe Kapler

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.315	.352	.517
Balance	.272	.332	.425
Total	.294	.341	.471

Corey Hart

Period	AVG	OBP	SLG
Current	.289	.327	.504
Balance	.285	.340	.496
Total	.287	.331	.501

Ben Sheets

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	2.85	123	109	108	28	1.11
Balance	3.47	87	81	71	22	1.18
Total	3.11	210	190	179	50	1.14

CC Sabathia

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	3.67	137.3	130	137	40	124
Balance	3.21	98	94	86	25	1.22
Total	3.48	235	224	223	65	1.23

Jeff Suppan

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	4.71	101.3	118	55	44	1.60
Balance	4.44	72	82	42	27	1.52
Total	4.60	173	200	97	71	1.57

Manny Parra

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	3.78	100	99	78	50	1.49
Balance	3.98	71	70	57	31	1.42
Total	3.86	171	169	135	81	1.46

Dave Bush

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	4.39	106.7	97	66	26	1.15
Balance	4.19	76	76	52	19	1.25
Total	4.30	182	173	118	45	1.19

Son of Clung

Period	ERA	IP	H	K	BB	WHIP
Current	4.16	75.7	66	64	36	1.35
Balance	4.53	54	51	40	24	1.40
Total	4.32	129	117	104	60	1.37

The All-Star Futures Game is on ESPN2 at 11:30 AM CT (no, not a misprint), with the pregame show airing an hour beforehand. "Third baseman" Mat Gamel, unequivocally the crown jewel of the system, is the only Milwaukee farmhand playing, thought erstwhile Brewers Matt LaPorta and Will Inman are also both on the US team, as is unsigned 2005 draft pick Jake Arrieta.

Brewers Futures Game alumni include Kyle Peterson (1999), Ben Sheets (2000), Nick Neugebauer (2001), Corey Hart (2002), Bill Hall (2002), J.J. Hardy (2003), Dave Krynzel (2003), Prince Fielder (2004), Rickie Weeks (2004), Hernan Iribarren (2005), Nelson Cruz (2005), Ryan Braun (2006), Yovani Gallardo (2006), and Alcides Escobar (2007).

Current or former Brewers who played on in the game prior to joining the organization include Francisco Cordero (Detroit - 1999), Russell Branyan (Cleveland - 1999), Alex Sanchez (Tampa Bay - 1999), Peter Bergeron (Montreal - 1999), Joe Lawrence (Toronto - 1999), Tomo Ohka (Boston - 1999, 2000), Ryan Anderson (Seattle - 1999, 2000), CC Sabathia (Cleveland - 2000), Eric Munson (Detroit - 2000), Mike Rivera (Detroit - 2001), Grant Balfour (Minnesota - 2001), Lyle Overbay (Arizona - 2002), Brett Evert (Atlanta - 2002), Jorge de la Rosa (Boston - 2002, 2003), Chris Narveson (St. Louis - 2003), Jose Capellan (Atlanta - 2004), and Zach Jackson (Toronto - 2005).

Feel free to use this as a game thead, or just to talk about what a studly slugger Gamel is.

If there is one development in the last couple of years that has drastically improved the casual fan's ability to understand the game, it is the appearance of baseball-reference.com's splits pages.  It's especially true of the team and league splits pages, which provide us with endless data on norms, so that when we look at a player's production in various situations, we know how it compares to league or team average.

My favorite stat on those splits pages is sOPS+.  OPS you probably know.  OPS+ is normalized OPS--that is, 100 is average, better than 100 is better than average, and less than 100 is worse than average.  At the moment, Jason Kendall has an OPS+ of 89 while Prince Fielder is at 117.  (Last year he was among the league leaders at 156.)

sOPS+ takes that one step farther.  The "s" stands for "split," so for any split (say, how a lefty batter does against lefty pitching), sOPS+ tells us how a performance is relative to the average for that split.  For instance, Fielder's OPS against lefties is 727--way below average--but it's better than how lefties typically do against southpaw pitchers.  So his sOPS+ is above average, at 112.

My favorite application of sOPS+ is seeing how players compare to positional averages.  We all know which positions have the most and least offense--you expect a masher to play first or left field, and it's rare to have a middle-of-the-order threat playing middle infield.  But those are only general concepts.  Do you know how catcher offense compares to shortstop offense?  Left field to right field?

So, getting to the point that got me writing today, think about the various production we're getting around the diamond.  Braun is mashing the ball, as is Hart; Hardy is hot, Branyan is giving us more from third; Weeks isn't good by any standard at second, while Cameron and Kendall seem rather middling for their positions.

Here's my question for you: At which position are the Brewers getting the best offense, relative to league average for that position?  In other words, at which position does the Crew have the highest sOPS+?

(Take a guess, I'll wait.)

(I know, it's a tough one.  Don't worry, I'm a patient guy.)

(You haven't guessed yet?  Come on.)

(The Jeopardy theme music is about over.)

(Just pick somebody.)

If you said shortstop, you'd be right.  Through yesterday's games, it isn't even really close.  Brewers shortstops have an sOPS+ of 126.  LF is 117, RF is 114, while 1B and CF are 109 and 108, respectively.  Here's the whole list.

Those aren't the exact numbers for the starters, since no one has played every single game at their position.  But for LF, RF, and 1B, they are pretty close.  What's interesting is just how far Hardy is ahead of the pack.  His OPS+ is up to 117, tied with Fielder and just behind Braun and Hart.  Relative to position, however, his sOPS+ is 135.  That ranks him higher than the shortstops of any NL team except for one (Florida).  He's certainly not the batsman that Hanley Ramirez is, but his defense may well make up the difference.

We all know that Hardy is white/red/so/extremely hot right now, but sOPS+ puts it in proper perspective.  Among non-pitchers, and taking defense into account, it's possible--even likely--that Hardy has been the most valuable player on the Brewers in 2008.

And he's younger than Miguel Tejada, too.

Did the Brewers have a game yesterday? Hmm, must not have noticed.

The biggest news this morning, courtesy of Ken Rosenthal, is that Matt LaPorta is officially on the trading block, and that Alcides Escobar might be packaged with him to acquire C.C. Sabathia. That price sounds a little steep to me, but Tom Haudricourt reports that the Indians have also been scouting Taylor Green. LaPorta and Green sounds about right, which would free the Brewers to trade Escobar or J.J. Hardy (who is confirmed to be available, along with Rickie Weeks) for A.J. Burnett, because the Blue Jays need a shortstop. Haudricourt doubts the Brewers are really offering LaPorta and/or Escobar, but given recent history, I think I'd believe Robothal first.

The Yost Infection takes umbrage with BA & Rock's fellating of Hardy's defense, citing his terrible zone rating, but fails to note the fact that Hardy leads all of baseball in out-of-zone plays; in other words, the Brewers' defensive shifting is messing up his zone rating. He's still not as good as Escobar, though.

LaPorta, Escobar, and Mat Gamel all made what I guess is best called Baseball America's Midseason Prospect All-Star Team, which roughly means they're near the top of their positions in all of prospectdom, but the corrosponding chat casts doubt on whether Gamel and Angel Salome can stick at their current defensive positions.

At FanGraphs, Marc Hulet (who I'm beginning to suspect is a big Brewers fan) points out that there are other interesting prospects in the system beyond the big names, namely Michael Brantley and Cole Gillespie. The point is especially well-taken about Gillespie, who's hitting like a mini-LaPorta, putting up a .273/.374/.498 line. Hulet also put Brad Nelson on his AAA non-prospect All-Star team; I think Nelson would make an excellent throw-in in whatever trade the Brewers end up executing, as he's never going to get a shot in Milwaukee.

Speaking of trades, Scott Linebrink Cutter Dykstra hit his first professional home run for Helena.

Dykstra's fellow draftee, 41st-round Cal State Fullerton SS Joe Scott, is playing summer ball in Alaska and "there's a chance he might sign a professional contract if he plays well this summer." He previously spurned the Brewers last year when they drafted him in the 39th round.

Tired of reading about prospects? Michael Garciaparra probably is too, though he doesn't regret choosing minor league baseball over a two-sport college career at the University of Tennessee.

Back in the big leagues, Tim Lincecum dropped the hammer on the Cubs while Mike Pelfrey dominated the Cardinals, keeping the Brewers from losing any ground after the game I don't remember. David Pinto notes that Lincecum exhibited unusually good control.

Speaking of which, having nightmares about the bullpen after yesterday? This should help.

At Recondite Baseball, TheJay takes a look at players who achieved the Alex Sanchez Special, having a lower on-base percentage than batting average. He ran down the Brewers' leaders in an earlier post.

Before today, all I know about Max Scherzer was that he threw really hard and had heterochromia. Now, thanks to Eric Seidman's interview, I know that Scherzer's a pretty sharp guy with an interest in cutting edge baseball research. I'm amazed that he's able to get anyone out pitching from his mother's basement.

That'll do it. What's that? You wanted another song? If you don't got Mojo Nixon then your store could use some fixin'!

First off, All-Star balloting ends at 11 PM CT tonight, so vote for Ryan Braun (and Jason Kendall!) if you are so inclined.

Wondering what Greg Vaughn is up to? The guy I sat behind in Vaughn's Valley in 1993 who screamed "HIT IT GONE, VAUGHN!" for the. entire. game. is, I'm sure. Check out a short video clip of him helping out with his son Cory's summer league team, the La Crosse Loggers (hat tip to Mass Haas at brewerfan.net). I didn't realize this, but Cory Vaughn plays at San Diego State, coached by Tony Gwynn. Kind of neat.

Mound Talk just put up their new Top 50 Prospects list, and four Brewers made the cut. LaPorta is #2 overall (up from 5), Mat Gamel is #13 (from 16), and Angel Salome and Jeremy Jeffress make their debuts on the list at #46 and #49, respectively.

It seems like everyone's talking about LaPorta and Gamel these days, and with good reason: According to Al, according to another guy, according to Peter Gammons, some other guy says that Huntsville is the best prospect team he's ever seen. Marc Hulet at FanGraphs joins the fun, even ripping off my comment about their defensive abilities.

The same Marc Hulet, this time at Baseball Analysts, is putting together an All-Star team made up of AAA players not considered among their team's top 20 prospects, and our own M. "Ike" DiFelice made the team. In a world where David Riske can earn $4M a year on the open market, how much is DiFelice not walking anyone (literally) out of the bullpen worth? What do you mean, no "in a world"?

In other minor league news, catcher Mike Roberts, the Brewers' 38th-round pick out of VMI in the draft last month, had a hell of a professional debut for Helena, hitting a three-run homer on the first pitch he saw, and adding a two-run double and two runs later (listen to the audio). You can read the interview I did with him here.

Finally, I'm breaking the moratorium on linking to the JS for these gems:

How hot is J.J. Hardy?

and

Have I mentioned lately how hot Hardy is?

I'm sure he'd warm up with you anytime, Tom.

Yesterday, all 30 teams in baseball were in action.  Only three NL teams won a game, and one of those, the Dodgers, beat the Reds.  The Brewers and Rockies were the only NL teams to win an interleague matchup.

• BR Box Score
• FanGraphs Win Probability Chart

With all those home runs last night, the Brewers didn't have to run very fast during the game.  This guy needed to run faster, though.

All you girls--except for Kirbir, who obviously wouldn't know a warm-up partner if one fell out of the sky into her bed--should be sure to watch the game tonight.  Hardy is healthy, and Yost plans to put him back in the lineup.

Speaking of coming back: David Riske dominated in Triple-A last night, and more importantly, he felt good.  He may not need another rehab, in which case the brass will have to figure out who goes.

I suppose there are four choices to get the axe: Mike Mark Mike Mark Mike Mark DiFelice, Tim Dillard, Julian Tavarez, and Hernan Iribarren.  Given how well DiFelice and Dillard have pitched, and that Taverez is a crusty veteran, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ned go for 13 pitchers.  Rambling Al notes that DiFelice has continued his amazing K/BB ways in the big leagues.

Whether you like it or not, I'm going to keep monitoring the available starting pitching.  (Sorry Seth, I'm sipping the kool-aid, but I'm not chugging it yet.)  Freddy Garcia has been throwing for scouts, and he could be back before September.

TheJay, apparently, is freelancing at Baseball Prospectus under the nom de recondite of "Jim Baker."  Baker takes the case of Robinson Cancel (nine years between major league appearances) and finds the players with even longer gaps between spells in the bigs.  Unsurprisingly, World War II shows up quite a bit.

If you thought the article about Kendall needing your All-Star support was a little silly, you should see what Gaslamp Ball has to say about a similar piece concerning Adrian Gonzalez.  Gonzalez has been one of the best players in baseball this year, and has stayed firmly under the radar in San Diego.  But no matter how good, I suspect he's not going to overtake Berkman, Pujols, D-Lee, and Fielder.

Here's part two of Geoff Young's interview with Sandy Alderson.

Two managers were fined by Major League Baseball for "failing to comply with pace of game regulations."  Word on the street (well, ok, word from my cat) is that Ryan Braun is next--if he doesn't start making outs more often, MLB will have to crack down on the extra time he adds to Brewers games.

The only thing worse than being a Bill Hall fan right now must be being Bill Hall.  I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that Billy will not be in today's starting lineup.  What I'm less sure about is whether that will constitute a defensive upgrade at second base.

• BR Box Score
• FanGraphs Win Probability Chart (NSFW)
  

There's a surprising amount to link to for a weekend, so let's get into it.

JJ Hardy has a left rotator cuff strain, which means...heck if I know.  The official line is that he's out of commission for the weekend, after which...heck if anybody knows.

The guy who writes Big League Stew for Yahoo is entirely too concerned about hip bumps.  In keeping with that theme, he notes that the Brewers outfield doesn't do it.  Instead, they kick it Mathnet style.

Junkball Blues looks at Ben Sheets's pitch counts lately.  I'm not as concerned about it as most--despite his litany of injuries, bizarre and otherwise, Ben is built like a horse, throws like a horse, and approaches his starts like a horse.  Age-wise, he's also well clear of the typical pitcher's "injury nexus."  That said, I wouldn't mind at all if his next outing consisted of seven shutout innings and a grand total of 94 pitches.

Here's an article at the official site about the Brewers youngsters amassing in Arizona to learn about being pro ballplayers.  There are some interesting tidbits, but the main point of interest is why Tom Singer left his MFA program to write for MLB.com.  Tom H needs to sit down with the young man and teach him how to pack more quotes and fewer adjectives into a properly written sports dispatch.

This may or may not be related to the Brewers: Juan Rincon has rejected an assignment to Triple-A, and is now a free agent.  He's certainly better depth than Jeff Weaver, though I'd imagine he'll get a major-league offer.  He's almost certainly a better long-term option than Mike DeFelice, and he seems like the kind of guy Melvin would kick the tires on.

Moving away from Milwaukee: Mitch Harris, a Cardinals draftee from the Naval Academy, is not getting an exemption from active duty.  That means his professional hopes will be set back five years.  It's tough not to feel bad for the guy, but then again, you go to the Naval Academy and then you go into active service.  That's how it works for everybody else, anyway.

Also in Cardinals news, Fungoes points out that LaRussa doesn't always use his LOOGY at the best possible times.  Maybe that's what Yost is trying to emulate.  Matthew at Lookout Landing notes the relatively small number of relief innings thrown by lefties.

If you're ever feeling sorry for the Brewers because of all the injuries we've dealt with, remind yourself what the Indians are going through this year.  Ouch.

Instant replay could hit MLB by August.  Wow.  I haven't made up my mind about it yet, but I am bracing myself for a deluge of redundant and uninteresting debate.

And turning to another topic that gets a deluge of debate, Hot Foot argues against interleague play.   It's certainly true that the shine is off this particular new toy.  Robby's argument focuses on competitive balance, which is certainly a problem.  We've talked at length on the site about the differences between the Brewers' schedule and those of the division rivals.  Interleague doesn't help matters.  I'd bet that we'll be hashing this out every year for the next couple decades, since MLB is in love with it, and they've doctored the numbers to make it look like the public loves it, too.  (Yeah, the public loves those mid-summer weekend games, huh?)

 

The Cup would be longer today, but I'm suffering from repetitive stress injuries and am listed as day-to-day.

• BR Box Score
• FanGraphs Win Probability Chart

It's not the biggest injury in the NL Central now, or even in the Brewers middle infield, but JJ Hardy is unlikely to play today after tweaking the shoulder he had surgery on earlier in the year.

It wouldn't be a Plastic Cup without an unwanted mention of the lineup, so: Corey's happy that he could run more in the leadoff spot.  The highlight of the article is this Ned sighting:

"Why would it open up his running game? His running game is already open," Yost said. "The only guarantee he is going to have is an open base is the first inning, so, no. The law of averages say that he is going to be on base as many times with guys on as with guys not on."

I think Ned is trying to say something intelligent here, and getting closer than we'd expect, but still not very close.  Hart may not lead off every inning he bats, but the odds are pretty high that, coming up after the #8 and #9 hitters, he'll have no one ahead of him on the basepaths.

Mike Fast posted an interesting Pitch f/x study at The Hardball Times this morning.  He looks at the effects of pitchers working quickly.  One unsurprising side note: Ben Sheets is the fastest worker on the Brewers staff.  Mike doesn't give us a complete list, but it looks like Sheets is one of the fastest in the majors, too.

And speaking of Pitch f/x, Josh has published his web-based pitch tool with 2008 data.  Now you can look at all kinds of cool matchup stuff.  I'm sure you can do something cooler than what I just came up with, but here are the locations of the five pitches from LHPs that Prince cranked out of the park.

Now, on to the carnage in the NL Central.

Alfonso Soriano has a broken hand, and will likely be out for six weeks.  It may or may not be Murton time, but it will definitely be downgrade time.  Cwyers looks at the projected difference.

Also at Goat Riders, Colin points out the trade rumors that the Cubs could go after Sabathia.  The Brewers have been linked with Sabathia before, too, though I think that was purely speculation.  I would imagine that as the Indians fall in the standings, every team above .500 will be linked with Sabathia.  But I'm with Olney here (it's sentences like that that aggravate my RSI)--it wouldn't surprise me if Jim Hendry is willing to be the highest bidder.

As you probably know, Albert Pujols is now on the DL, too.  I'm not sure what's worse--losing your star for 6 weeks, or losing your star for an unknown period of time.  At least Soriano ought to be healed on schedule and shouldn't have lingering effects; Pujols is another story.  Cardinals Diaspora reflects on the surprising season in St. Louis so far, and wonders if this news is the end of it.

I'm playing injured, and you still got a full-length Cup.  How's that for GRIT?

Game time today is 1:05 CT, and if you check back after the game, there will be another draft pick interview courtesy of intrepid BCB reporter-in-the-field Battlekow.

Another day, another 500 blog entries.  Let's get to it.

• BR Box Score
• FanGraphs Win Probability Chart

Much to my chagrin, Ned put the lineup back in the news yesterday.  Corey Hart led off, Hardy hit second, and Bill Hall played second.  I like it.  As I've noted, I don't care very much about lineup optimization, especially relative to how much it gets discussed, but what I do like is seeing Ned think outside the conventional wisdom box.  I wouldn't have guessed that Hall would see time at second with Weeks out, but I'm glad.

David Riske is feeling better, and could be just days away from a rehab assignment. 

In-Between Hops notes the Brewers road woes, but also points out the three NL teams who have a bigger home/road differential.  One of those is the Cubs, and while you'd think there'd be some Milwaukee-style hand-wringing over it in the Chicago press, Hire Jim Essian looks at the flipside: The Cubs are dominating at Wrigley.

Between the Green Pillars looks at the Brewers' Pythagorean record and doesn't see much reason for hope.

Redlegs Rundown notes that the NL Central is looking pretty good this year.  We were talking about this in a comments thread several days ago, but it's worth seeing again.  So far this year, it's the NL West that deserves a demotion to the Pacific Coast League.  (The Mariners, on the other hand, should be send to extended spring training.)

In former Brewers news: Joe Thatcher is back with the Padres, and Raul Casanova is once again the odd man out with the Mets.

TheJay generates a list of the pitchers who have appeared in the most games without registering a plate appearance.  Our buddy Brian Shouse is on the list, and it is far from the first time I've wanted to see him take his hacks.

Here's an interesting draft project: MLB Trade Rumors polled its readers immediately after each of the first 30 picks in the draft to see how much the community liked the pick.  Pedro Alvarez met with the approval of nearly 90% of readres, while Jason Castro was under 15%.  Brett Lawrie is right in the middle of the pack at 62%. 

Check back later today--I believe we've got another draftee interview on the way, and of course the Brewers look to solve their Houston problem again tonight at 7:05 CT.

So I missed last night's game to go see the new Narnia movie. A terrible mistake. Who told Disney that Narnia was just supposed to be a darker version of Shrek?

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps

Here are some photos of last night's heroes: Hardy, Hall, and Cameron

Remember yesterday, when some kid named Eli destroyed his credibility by suggesting the Brewers were getting ready to DFA Bill Hall? Today he thinks they'll trade Ben Sheets. I'm going to go ahead and pull him off my reading list so he'll stop wasting our time.

Coming off a split with the Nats, the Brewers have dropped to 20th in the most recent Bugs and Cranks poll.

Ok, so Tuesday was light on Brewer news, but it's heavy on injuries:

Pat Burrell was scratched from last night's game with stiffness in his neck.
Eric Byrnes has been placed on the DL to give him some time to recover from tweaked hamstrings.
Braves OF Matt Diaz has been placed on the DL with a strained PCL in his knee after a collision with the wall last night.
Travis Hafner missed his second straight game last night with a sore shoulder.
Yankees P Ian Kennedy left last night's start with a strained muscle in his rib cage.
Daisuke Matsuzaka complained of shoulder fatigue last night after the third inning, but was still sent out for one more inning before being pulled.
Cards P Joel Piniero has missed one start and may miss more with a sore groin.
Gary Sheffield has been placed on the DL with a strained oblique.
Frank Thomas left last night's game with a strained quad and will get an MRI today.
Matt Wise is headed back to the DL with weakness in his shoulder.

Tim Lincecum isn't hurt at the moment, but Dave Pinto at Baseball Musings is scared the Giants will run him into the ground. He threw over 120 pitches last night, and has gone 110 or more five times this season.

Oh, and I love Mitch Hedberg.

Drink up.