Tuesday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while pondering the silver lining of the economic situation.
So the NL Cy Young Award will be announced today. Landon Evanson of Bugs & Cranks and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch both list the argument for CC Sabathia among their points to consider. Goold's post includes a poll, if you're into such things. Baseball Musings has Sabathia third on their imaginary ballot.
Speaking of Sabathia, the JS asked a sports economist at Vanderbilt to estimate how much money Sabathia will get this offseason. The guess: 5 years, $20-25 million. I fully expect the Yankees to have blown that figure out of the water by Friday afternoon, and the Angels and Dodgers could do it as well. Meanwhile, CC is packing up his stuff and waiting to see where he's headed next.
Yesterday, Geovany Soto and Evan Longoria won the NL and AL Rookie of the Year Awards, respectively. As they do annually, the BBWAA did something to lead us to believe they're incapable of handling this task. This year, three writers put Reds SP Edinson Volquez on their ballot despite the fact that he's not a rookie.
The Junkball Blues has six questions about young players on the Brewers and their ability to stop regression in 2009.
Two of those young players, J.J. Hardy and Ryan Braun, made Beyond the Box Score's list of the top 50 players in 2008. Hardy is also the subject of very vague trade mumblings involving the Twins.
Another one of those young players is Corey Hart, who rated slightly below average as a defensive right fielder. The Brewers ranked 18th as a team in right field defense.
Baseball Digest Daily says the Brewers have had the fourth best offseason so far. Apparently acquiring Casey McGehee carries a lot of weight. Hiring Bruce Seid as the new amateur scouting director wasn't mentioned.
So two weeks ago, Rick Peterson was mentioned as a possible candidate for the Brewers' pitching coach vacancy, but later dismissed as an option and the team hired Bill Castro from within. Buried, literally in the last paragraph of this Ken Rosenthal column, is a note that sheds some light on the situation:
It's been a few days, I guess, since we've talked about Gabe Kapler. For those of you who felt Kapler could have been a cheap option to replace Mike Cameron, here's something worth noting: Beyond the Box Score estimates his value for 2009 at $6.69 million. I doubt he'll get that, but $4-5 million wouldn't surprise me at all.
Two other awards to announce today: Chris Cody, who split the season between West Virginia and Brevard County and now is pitching in Hawai'i, has been named the Brewers Organizational Pitcher of the Year. Also, Doug Melvin will receive the Nice Guy Award at the annual Red Smith banquet in January in Appleton.
Speaking of Appleton, Chris Mehring of Rattler Radio is already getting excited about the projected Timber Rattlers roster for 2009.
In hot stove news, two trades went through yesterday. First, the A's acquired Matt Holliday from the Rockies for a package including Huston Street, SP Greg Smith and OF Carlos Gonzalez. The A's are now allowed to ring-rang a dong for Matt Holliday. Meanwhile, the Rockies may be looking to flip Huston Street.
Also, the Marlins traded Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham to the Nationals for infielder Emilio Bonifacio and two young prospects.
Elsewhere on the stove:
Angels: Have reportedly decided not to pursue free agent Francisco Rodriguez.
D-Backs: Are reportedly expressing interest in former Astro (and Brewer) Mark Loretta.
Padres: Reportedly withdrew their offer to Trevor Hoffman.
In other news, the Mariners have scheduled initial interviews with seven candidates for their vacant managerial position. Neither Ned Yost nor Willie Randolph are on the list. That could mean they're not candidates, but Chuckie Hacks wonders if Yost is getting a first round bye since he's worked with Zduriencik before. The same thing is possible for Willie Randolph, who interviewed with the Brewers while Zduriencik was still there.
Oh, and Friday is Make Someone Feel Uncomfortable Day. If you really want to do a good job, you should probably start preparing now.
Drink up.
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Friday's Frosty Mug
Here are some things to read while I try to decide if I should buy the new REM album. Geoff from Ducksnorts seems to like it. Seriously? Is this what it's come to? I'm taking musical advice from the guy who writes Ducksnorts?
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
Ned Yost is in his sixth year as manager of the Milwaukee Brewers. He's been in baseball for decades. He just now decided that sending a reliever out there four straight days is bad. As a result, Salomon Torres was unavailable yesterday. Kudos to Ned for working out a new strategy...but really, should it take 6 years to get there?
Adam McCalvy wrote the easiest story ever: A profile of Mike Rivera. I'm glad Rivera could fit this into his busy schedule. Topics covered include how to best remove splinters from one's backside, interesting things he's found under the bench, and why playing him more than once annually could turn out to be a good idea.
Yesterday, I mentioned a rumor that the Brewers were considering moving their AA affiliation from Huntsville to Connecticut. The Connecticut Defenders' relationship with the Giants is deteriorating quickly and will likely end soon. After writing that, I was fortunate enough to have this conversation with Joe Perez of the Norwich Bulletin, which lays out the complaints the team has about the Giants. For an alternative view, check out the 12th comment on this post over at McCovey Chronicles, which does a nice job of portraying the other side.
Didn't he just do this? Dayn Perry has made another top ten list of free agent disappointments. Eric Gagne checks in at #7. Barry Zito, signed for 6 more years and over $100 million more, is nowhere to be found.
On injuries:
Braves OF Matt Diaz will miss at least a month with a partial tear of his PCL.
Troy Percival made an appearance on the DL the same day he made an appearance in my mailbox on the cover of The Sporting News.
RotoJunkie has taken over what used to be the Baseball Happenings Weekly Blog Poll. Lance Berkman, Edinson Volquez and Geovany Soto are this week's NL MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year, respectively. Full results here. Here's my ballot:
Rookie of the Year:
1. Geovany Soto
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Joey Votto
Cy Young:
1. Edinson Volquez
2. Brandon Webb
3. Carlos Zambrano
MVP:
1. Lance Berkman
2. Dan Uggla
3. Chipper Jones
I guess I should've seen this coming, but somehow I had no idea: Randy Johnson tied Roger Clemens on the all-time strikeout list last night. Combine that with 289 wins and he now seems like a pretty clear-cut lock for the Hall of Fame.
Trust a voice of experience, this move won't make things any better: The Rockies are bumping Jorge De La Rosa from the rotation and replacing him with Glendon Rusch.
Bret Boone retired earlier this week and I didn't really treat it as news because he's been out of a job for months. This Ichiro quote about Bret Boone, though, is fun all by itself:
"But when I met him, he was kind of a human being that you would never meet in Japan. So, whenever I was around him, I almost felt like I was witnessing a creature, not a human being. It was fun for me to watch him."
Oh, and the Mariners don't want lesbians making out in their ballpark. (Hat tip to 6-4-2)
The Mug is off tomorrow and Sunday as I continue my quest to drive 100,000 miles in 2008. Drink up.
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Fatigue! It's Catching.
So, in this morning's Mug I included this stat, to get people thinking a bit about the Brewers' catching situation:
Johnny Estrada, May 2007: .236/.244/.449
Jason Kendall, April 2008: .301/.366/.398
Jason Kendall, May 2008: .224/.314/.290
The Brewers have what I consider to be a disturbing trend going on with their catchers, dating back to last season, but also visible during the Damian Miller era: They play their starting catchers a lot, often to the point of impacting their performance. Last year, despite being unavailable for some significant stretches of time, Estrada caught more innings than all but 7 NL catchers. He caught nearly everyday despite being nearly unable to move in August and September.
Make no mistake, Jason Kendall is catching a lot this season too. Consider this list: the top 10 NL Catchers by percentage of team innings caught.
Jason Kendall, 88.6%
Brian McCann, 88.1%
Russell Martin, 86.7%
Geovany Soto, 85.2%
Yadier Molina, 79.3%
Bengie Molina, 76.0%
Paul Bako, 71.8%
Chris Snyder, 70.0%
Josh Bard, 70.0%
J.R. Towles, 64.0%
An important note regarding this list: Brian McCann is 24. Martin and Soto are 25. In fact, there's only three catchers on this list over 30: Bako (37), Kendall (34) and Bard (30).
There were only five catchers in the National League who caught 1000 innings last season. Kendall is on pace to catch 1282. That's more than any NL backstop caught in 2007, and it'd be the second highest total of his career. Again, he's 34 years old and has already caught over 14,000 innings. Maybe this would all be irrelevant if he was hitting. But as I mentioned above, there's a visible decline in play. His OPS is down over 150 points in May. And he's still got 4 full months of catching nearly every day ahead of him.
At the same time, he has a capable backup. Mike Rivera battled it out in spring training and beat out an established major league catcher (Eric Munson) and a fan favorite (Vinny Rottino) to earn the right to wear his catcher's gear just 8 times and get just 25 plate appearances in the opening 47 games. It's hard to imagine he's having any luck staying sharp when he's playing less than once per week. But he's still 7-for-24, hitting 27 points better than Kendall.
I don't think one can make an argument that Rivera should play every day, or even that a 50/50 split is in order. I like Kendall's contributions to this team, and I've bought into the hype on his defensive skills and game-calling abilities. I have one simple recommendation that I think would keep Kendall stronger and healthier, keep Rivera getting consistent plate appearances and give the team the best chance to win:
When Manny Parra starts, Mike Rivera should too. This is win-win all around. It gives Kendall consistent rest, Rivera consistent plate appearances, and it gives Parra a familiar catcher to throw to as he works to improve his game at the big league level. Parra has a 4.09 ERA this season when pitching to Rivera, and a 4.50 ERA when pitching to Kendall. Plus, Rivera caught Parra's perfect game in AAA last season.
What do you think?
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Wednesday's Frosty Mug
So the Brewers win, the Cardinals lose, the Cubs lose, and they appear to be signing Jim Edmonds. That's win-win-win-win if I ever saw it.
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
The circle of life continues: Chris Capuano will have Tommy John surgery as soon as Thursday, giving up the effort to come back without it. Also on Thursday, 2006 first round pick Jeremy Jeffress will return from his 50-game drug suspension and report to Brevard County.
Beyond that, it's kind of a slow day for Brewer news. Baseball Analysts, though, did take a look at players looking to avoid a sophomore slump, including one guy you may have heard of who's hit 6 extra base hits in 3 days.
On injuries:
Milton Bradley was held out of last night's Rangers game with a sore shoulder.
J.D. Drew injured his wrist making a sliding catch and is day-to-day.
A's 2B Mark Ellis missed last night's game with a hamstring injury, and will miss a few more.
O's C Ramon Hernandez missed last night's game with a sprained left wrist.
Reds SS Jeff Keppinger fouled a ball off his knee last night and has a fractured kneecap.
O's 3B Melvin Mora was hit by a ball in warmups yesterday and missed last night's game.
If you haven't been paying attention, Lance Berkman is pretty hot right now. He's hitting .605 in his last 11 games, and has scored a run in 15 straight games, leaving him 2 games shy of tying the NL record Rickie Weeks tied earlier this season.
Berkman also won this week's BaseballHappenings blogpoll for NL MVP. Brandon Webb ran away from the field in the Cy Young voting, and Geovany Soto dominated the Rookie voting. Here's the ballot I cast:
MVP:
1. Lance Berkman
2. Chase Utley
3. Chipper Jones
Cy Young:
1. Brandon Webb
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Carlos Zambrano
Rookie of the Year:
1. Geovany Soto
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Kosuke Fukudome
Click the link above for the full results.
A rare former Brewer trifecta happened yesterday: The Mets designated Nelson Figueroa for assignment, called up Claudio Vargas and activated Matt Wise from the DL in the same day.
Oh, and here's a story about Tigers P Nate Robertson's unrequited love for bats.
Drink up.
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Pre-Series Cubs Thoughts
Blah blah blah, this is a big one, whatever. I don't care how on-the-bubble Sheets is or that we're getting Cameron back or that we're playing the Cubs. It's game #26, and after the series, we'll have 134 left. So let's all chill out about that.
That said, it will certainly be an interesting series. Here are some things I've noticed, and others I'll be watching for.
- We all knew the Cubs were going to be a good team, but there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of their 16-9 start. They've had a relatively easy schedule, and while they've played a couple of good teams, they haven't beaten very many good pitchers. Their two-game sweep in New York came off of John Maine and Nelson Figueroa, and while they beat Aaron Harang (hats off to them), they lost to Edinson Volquez. We took the series at Wrigley to open the season, and there's very little I've seen since to indicate that the Cubs are clearly the better team.
- Left field for the Cubs is a giant, yawning chasm of suck. Soriano was awful before his injury, and while DeRosa has been okay in his starts in left field, that leaves Mike Fontenot (OPS: 545) at second base. The Cubs have the offense at other positions to more than make up for it, but it's unusual to see so many people work together to produce so little at an offensive position.
- Kerry Wood isn't the best reliever in the bullpen, but he'll do. He's striking out about one batter per inning and generally doing a good impression of a major league closer. Carlos Marmol, on the other hand, is downright dominant. I'm not about to give Piniella credit for strategery, but if the Cubs have Wood pitching like this in the 9th and Marmol putting out fires whenever necessary, they will be in very good shape. Maybe even good enough to escape the negative effects of a soft pen outside of those two guys.
- A big part of the Cubs' 16-9 start has been the offensive production of Geovany Soto and Kosuke Fukudome. Neither one is a huge surprise, though I don't think most people expected both of them to have 900+ OPSs. Right now, everybody but the left fielders are hitting better than expected, but Soto and Fukudome are in a whole different category.
- Ryan Dempster currently has an ERA of 2.90 and an FIP of 4.24. Something's gotta give. A walk rate over 4 per 9 suggests that the ERA will budge first. If his HR rate ends up around his career average (or worse, as it was last year), that 4.24 will look mighty appealing to Cubs fans.
- As regular readers know, I am not concerned about the goings-on of small samples, so I could care less about the poor clutch hitting over the weekend, or David Riske's last couple of outings. The Brewers offense as presently constituted will score lots and lots of runs, no matter how bad they look on any given day.
If all that wasn't enough to think about, mark your calendars for Thursday afternoon: Carlos Zambrano and Yovani Gallardo. Nice.
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